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RCI bankruptcy possibility - deposits and FCCs


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44 minutes ago, gold said:


What is that supposed to mean?


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We can't just have a conversation without some of that added...no matter where you stand on things, this is a crazy situation and we don't know who will get help and the overall outcome.

 

Though I don't expect bankruptcy in the immediate future, I did go ahead and empty my cruise planner of all purchases for our 4/13 cruise on Mariner of the Seas.  We are cancelling that at some point, but I would prefer a refund to FCC so I am waiting to see what happens before actually cancelling.

Edited by TexasRon
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Imagine they do go bankrupt and open up shop under a different name and all our statuses are now back to day 1?? Could that happen?? No one has a crystal ball.....

 

I really don't like the idea of bailing out a company that doesn't even pay US taxes though...... And I'm a Canadian.....

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23 minutes ago, TexasRon said:

Though I don't expect bankruptcy in the immediate future, I did go ahead and empty my cruise planner of all purchases for our 4/13 cruise on Mariner of the Seas.  We are cancelling that at some point, but I would prefer a refund to FCC so I am waiting to see what happens before actually cancelling.

 

With the way things are going in this world right now I would never say never on anything.  Lots of businesses and individuals use the bankruptcy laws to their advantage in very situations like this.  Declare bankruptcy and reorganize and resume operations as a new company and walk away from their financial obligations.  Then years of class actions and other lawsuits from former customers who try and get something back.  I have lost money to a company that has done that very thing, and I'm sure many others on this board have as well.  2 weeks ago you could have never told me that our world would look the way it does now with mass cancellations and lockdowns or that I'd have trouble getting the basics like toilet paper and hand sanitizer.  

 

We are in a holding pattern as well, we have not been officially cancelled for our Alaska cruise but we know it's coming with the Canadian port closures.  I'm guessing Royal is doing cancellations in 30 day blocks to manage the amount of time they have to tend to those cancellations (MY OPINION ONLY), but I just wish they'd do it now.  We would prefer the refund option to have the cash on hand rather than a 125% FCC as well as cancelling our cruise planner purchases.

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The fact that RCL just increased their liquidity by $550 million is not fake news.
 

The fact they have 9 billion in long term debt is not fake news.

 

The fact they only had 244 million cash on hand is not fake news.

 

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/RCL/royal-caribbean-cruises/cash-on-hand

 

(Website above for debt and cash on hand reference.  Have to click on different links within website to see all the financial info.)

 

RCL has spent the last several years boosting stock prices and giving nice dividends instead of saving for a rainy day.  Now they are in trouble.  You don’t increase your credit line by $550 million because you are doing great financially.

 

Will they go bankrupt.  Unlikely.  I would imagine the creditors may be able to work out some payment arrangement or RCL could find someone to give them a loan to pay their debts or some other way to improve the cash flow.   But to say they aren’t in danger is just incorrect.  
 

RCL is doing whatever it takes to hold onto cash.  By giving customers till Dec 2021 to decide if they want a refund proved that they want to entice you to leave your money with them, as a potential interest free loan 21 month if you take the refund in Dec 2021 rather than FCC. 
 

RCL brands were the only brand that just didn’t outright cancel cruises on Friday.  They only cancelled US cruises.   Then Sat they suspended all operations.  Why is that???   I suspect it’s to try and continue to have as many people cancel their cruises and be stuck with an FCC rather than RCI or X having to give out a refund by them canceling.

Edited by rimmit
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Let’s make a deal, you change your Flag to a US company, follow our laws and pay our taxes and we will bail you out.  That would be interesting.

 

they are a big company, could most likely write it all off anyways.  

Edited by RETNAVY1996
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2 hours ago, Mapleleafforever said:

Imagine they do go bankrupt and open up shop under a different name and all our statuses are now back to day 1?? Could that happen?? No one has a crystal ball.....

 

I really don't like the idea of bailing out a company that doesn't even pay US taxes though...... And I'm a Canadian.....

Is it possible?  Sure.

 

But it would also be suicide.  The people who are most likely to come back quickly to the cruise line are the loyalists, and the quickest way to alienate them is make them start over.  For sure, I would find a different way to spend my vacation money if they made us start over.  

 

In the same view, I also don't see them getting rid of the FCC that we just got- again, the easy button to fill a cruise ship with cash in hand- get rid of that, and it's another reason to not sail again.  For the price of losing one cruise, it would lose thousands of dollars of future spending- again when there will be lingering doubt about cruising being a safe option.

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Last year we were sitting at a luncheon with one of the Captains.  For some reason the conversation went to discussing the Costa Concordia disaster.  The Captain told us that if this had been a Royal ship, it would have been the end of Royal.  They could never withstand some thing like this.  We gulped and were shocked but he was dead serious.  I won't name the Captain, mainly because I can't remember!!LOL!  But since then Royal has taken on a lot of debt with Coco Cay and the new builds.  
I hope Royal is able to withstand this disaster with the help of the government.  I surely don't want them to go under. I know we do our share as frequent cruisers with Royal!

 

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11 hours ago, HalfHand said:

Bankruptcy doesn't mean they are out of business. With interest rates dropping they may declare bankruptcy just to reorganize all their debts at a much better rate. That won't effect FCC at all.

 

lol.  fcc holders will get the Royal Treatment for sure if that happens.  It will be toilet paper 

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4 hours ago, LXA350 said:

At this stage I highly doubt to see RCL go bankrupt, they are together with Carnival the bigest and most successfull players in the industry. The company needs to be setup stable enough to survive a very bad year, obviously if you would have this repeat again in the near future they would be at very high risk to go bankrupt, but one storm in many years they should be able to make it through.

 

Companies such as Norwegian and possibly MSC would be more at risk, although MSC's main business is Cargo shipping but I am not following on how successfull this part of them is.

 

MSC is privately owned and they have 580 ships (Cargo).  About 3/4 of those are leased out, but as a private organization they don't report financials publicly.  

 

NCL is in the tightest position.  

 

Here is an interesting article from 2 days ago (seems like a decade, huh?) that lays out Carnivals problems; their debt obligations.  https://seekingalpha.com/article/4331763-carnival-dividend-must-be-cut

 

All these companies are going to be absolutely hammered with cash flowing the wrong direction.  I truly don't think a 30 day shutdown is going to prove to be sufficient and with people already going out of work, spending money on vacation is going to be last on their mind in 4 weeks.  

 

Frankly, no one knows the extent of the devastation and impact, on any level.  We can guess and make good arguments based on historical data but history could prove to be completely irrelevant as companies are overtaken by events.  

 

Anyone that did anything but short a cruise stock in the last 2 weeks was simply lighting money on fire. 

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1 hour ago, RETNAVY1996 said:

Let’s make a deal, you change your Flag to a US company, follow our laws and pay our taxes and we will bail you out.  That would be interesting.

 

they are a big company, could most likely write it all off anyways.  

 

Their argument is they won't be able to provide you the same services, nor sell you a week long cruise for $499. Not saying you are wrong, you make a good point.  But all those FCC holders would be in for a rude shock when the cost of a replacement cruise is 3x higher 

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I have to say this... the OP's source is CCN.COM.  A crypto currency site?  IMO, at the top of the heap of non-reputable news sources. Possibly trying to get people to mistaken it for cnn.com?  Not to mention... click bait.

 

Just say'n.

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11 minutes ago, drsel said:

Agreed.

I think Royal Caribbean and carnival will both survive this crisis

Carnival will definitely survive.  RCL and NCL are the most at risk for Chapter 11.  CCL has not increased their liquidity since this started that I am aware of. RCL and NCL both have.

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12 hours ago, HalfHand said:

Bankruptcy doesn't mean they are out of business. With interest rates dropping they may declare bankruptcy just to reorganize all their debts at a much better rate. That won't effect FCC at all.

I was thinking the same thing.  This is usually the first step any big business does.  

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5 hours ago, LXA350 said:

At this stage I highly doubt to see RCL go bankrupt, they are together with Carnival the bigest and most successfull players in the industry. The company needs to be setup stable enough to survive a very bad year, obviously if you would have this repeat again in the near future they would be at very high risk to go bankrupt, but one storm in many years they should be able to make it through.

 

Companies such as Norwegian and possibly MSC would be more at risk, although MSC's main business is Cargo shipping but I am not following on how successfull this part of them is.

 

MSC is a 300 year old family company, with over 800+ shipping vessels: they will be fine!

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2 hours ago, RETNAVY1996 said:

Let’s make a deal, you change your Flag to a US company, follow our laws and pay our taxes and we will bail you out.  That would be interesting.

 

they are a big company, could most likely write it all off anyways.  

Well, I guess you want to pay 3-5 times what you currently do for a cruise.  

Edited by BND
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This is going to blow over, if they can survive the recession of 10 years ago, they can survive this.  We already bought RCCL stock and will probably buy more if it goes down for more than we paid.

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