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RCI bankruptcy possibility - deposits and FCCs


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2 hours ago, firefly333 said:

Yep, these people saying they don't care if rcl goes under probably don't currently own stock.

 

Of course I care my stock is down. 

 

But just think of how high the yield must be 🙂 Anyhow, a down stock price only matters on the day you sell. 

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On 4/5/2020 at 12:42 PM, JAMESCC said:

Ouch that is a little close. Good luck. I think cruises start up in June personally. 

Do you seriously believe that cruises will start in June when the virus is still going around the country?  I believe that people will still be dying from COVID 19 and there is no way a cruise ship will sail in June.  The peak in Texas is not expected till early May and then after the peak COCID 19 still has to come  down.  People in Texas will still be dying at the end of May.  Why take a chance so early and maybe start a second wave that could infect more and then more die?  Be safe rather than sorry.

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Peaks and valleys of the Coronavirus will happen. The virus is going to circulate through Africa and South America while other countries battling for social distances. It might reappear time and again.
1918 flu called Spanish Flu caused 50 million or more deaths worldwide. It had peaks and valleys. We might not have cruises for 12 to 18 months.

Unless they have a government bailout it’s doubtful that the big 3 and virgin cruises are going to survive. 

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15 minutes ago, Biker19 said:

image.thumb.png.49fa4969d44ddf230cda54ac8e0c61c9.png

We just had our second case confirmed today in the same county where I live.  Very few test have been given.  As more people take the test we will see how wide spread the virus really is.  IMO, the larger cities are the ones that will be infected at a higher number rate but small rural counties will have issues.  We just need more testing.  I believe that our state peak will be determined by the larger cities just because of the shear number of people.  I still believe that May 6th is going to be close.  San Antonio, Dallas Metroplex and Harris County (Houston) will be the hotspots.  I just don’t see how a cruise from Galveston will sail until September, if then.  

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1 hour ago, Hobby3333 said:

Do you seriously believe that cruises will start in June when the virus is still going around the country?  I believe that people will still be dying from COVID 19 and there is no way a cruise ship will sail in June.  The peak in Texas is not expected till early May and then after the peak COCID 19 still has to come  down.  People in Texas will still be dying at the end of May.  Why take a chance so early and maybe start a second wave that could infect more and then more die?  Be safe rather than sorry.

 

Well I believe that certain cruises can start in June, its yes possible. I didn't say full bore every ship and like nothing happened. The peak here in the NJ/NY area in the 9th. Its gonna take about a month after than for it to really calm down that hospitals will get relief. Looking at the data though, July might be a better bet. Please use the website I am going to leave as a link. It gives me peace of mind because as bad as this is, it will calm down at some point. Then the real work begins, scientists can hopefully get a handle on what treatments help, and down the line a vaccine. 

 

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

Edited by JAMESCC
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1 hour ago, Hobby3333 said:

We just had our second case confirmed today in the same county where I live.  Very few test have been given.  As more people take the test we will see how wide spread the virus really is.  IMO, the larger cities are the ones that will be infected at a higher number rate but small rural counties will have issues.  We just need more testing.  I believe that our state peak will be determined by the larger cities just because of the shear number of people.  I still believe that May 6th is going to be close.  San Antonio, Dallas Metroplex and Harris County (Houston) will be the hotspots.  I just don’t see how a cruise from Galveston will sail until September, if then.  

"Weeks earlier than expected: April 19 named new projected peak date for coronavirus in Texas"

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24 minutes ago, ONECRUISER said:

Thanks for sharing, one my favorite Link/Sites. Been watching future protections going lower every day, dropping by about half in last 2 weeks

 

The one thing I wonder about those charts is that at the top of the page it states, " COVID-19 projections assuming full social distancing through May 2020"

 

If this is the case for the projection, what happens if social distancing is relaxed prior to the end of May?  Is full social distancing being followed everywhere within these states? 

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On 3/15/2020 at 1:07 AM, CruisingNole said:

 

Oh absolutely man. Tell that to people, such as myself, that have worked at corporations that have gone through Chapter 11. Your gift certificate will be just fine afterwards, believe me.  😉

I was in the middle of that with the company I worked for.  They terminated us because the company couldn't continue with the liquidation due to being shut down by Corvid. The first thing cut off was gift cards and store credits when liquidation started. Chapter 11 takes care of the landlords and vendors debt first. Employee's have to file a claim with the court for any unpaid vacation, personal or sick days. I just got my notice from the court today.  

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On 3/19/2020 at 2:46 PM, Ocean Boy said:

What is far worse than being shut down?

 

Good point. I don't recall that particular scenario in my lifetime. :classic_smile:

Edited by Coralc
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3 hours ago, MADflyer said:

 

The one thing I wonder about those charts is that at the top of the page it states, " COVID-19 projections assuming full social distancing through May 2020"

 

If this is the case for the projection, what happens if social distancing is relaxed prior to the end of May?  Is full social distancing being followed everywhere within these states? 

Agree, though at this point we're down less then 1/4 what was even predicted 3 weeks ago... 

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  • 4 weeks later...

Not  only are structured bankruptcies of select cruise lines possible, they are probable.  There is no more expedient way for a company to shed its unsecured obligations and, even, some secured debt through debt to equity conversion. However, filings would not all be in the US, and I have no idea if a filing occurs offshore how the local courts would deal with it.  Should a US filing occur, most likely it will be a Chapter 11 restructuring with a prestructured deal already agreed to by secured creditors.  Some bankruptcy debt would be arranged for and would become the most senior obligation.  As to courts recognizing cruise deposits in the structure is unknown.  Lucid creditors might say they want to protect passengers so they are not lost permanently.  My uninformed opinion is that the credit would not repaid with cash but would be a perpetual credit towards future cruises.  This is just a guess.  For protection, any deposit made should have been or should immediately be disputed with the credit card company used.   Most fine print in credit card agreements requires the issuer to issue at least a temporary credit in disputes.  Cancellation letters for the cruise and similar supporting documentation is useful when opening a dispute.  I just read through two "fine print" statements for credit cards and related benefits.  One had a carve out for bankruptcy of the debtor, the other did not.  Nevertheless. the card issuers want the business of creditworthy clients every bit as much as do the cruise lines and their creditors.  Unknown is the incestuous relationship between the large banks who are card issuers and the cruise lines.  Many hold cruise operator debt, so by refunding dollars from cancelled trips they shoot themselves in the foot in securing the repayment of that debt.  

 

All of this is rambling speculation, but--having been involved in a variety of client bankruptcies--I believe the foregoing to be possible.  Norweigan would be first because they are very highly leveraged.  Thereafter, Carnival and Royal Caribbean, but they are on firmer financial footings and it would require a long dormant period for them to succumb.   One other consideration is insurance.  Most business interruption policies carve out Acts of God and Force Majeure.  My guess is that these policies offer no protection.  The cruise lines' losses will be their losses alone.  Good luck to all.  I emphasize that the foregoing is complete speculation.  Do not rely on it.  I am not an attorney and this explanation is only based on my experience and the little bit I know about the bankruptcy process.  If there are any bankruptcy lawyers reading this, please offer a more reliable explanation.  

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On 4/7/2020 at 7:02 PM, JAMESCC said:

 

Well I believe that certain cruises can start in June, its yes possible. I didn't say full bore every ship and like nothing happened. The peak here in the NJ/NY area in the 9th. Its gonna take about a month after than for it to really calm down that hospitals will get relief. Looking at the data though, July might be a better bet. Please use the website I am going to leave as a link. It gives me peace of mind because as bad as this is, it will calm down at some point. Then the real work begins, scientists can hopefully get a handle on what treatments help, and down the line a vaccine. 

 

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

That graphs instills no confidence for me.  

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On 3/15/2020 at 11:20 AM, RETNAVY1996 said:

Let’s make a deal, you change your Flag to a US company, follow our laws and pay our taxes and we will bail you out.  That would be interesting.

 

they are a big company, could most likely write it all off anyways.  

I feel you were reading my mind! Lol! That was my exact answer...

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  • 5 months later...
13 minutes ago, johnjen said:

Was looking for a topic on "Bankruptcy" so I have a question.

 

Supposing RCL files for bankruptcy before this 45 day refund window we are in right now. Does this mean we would NOT get our money back?

They have reported enough cash on hand to last into next year without sailing.  It’s not a current concern. 

Edited by Ourusualbeach
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3 hours ago, johnjen said:

Was looking for a topic on "Bankruptcy" so I have a question.

 

Supposing RCL files for bankruptcy before this 45 day refund window we are in right now. Does this mean we would NOT get our money back?

As other have said, very unlikely at the moment. If Royal does ever go bankrupt, there is no guarantee you would get money back. Basically you would be in line with long list of creditors, all going for whatever money is left.

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On 4/7/2020 at 7:02 PM, JAMESCC said:

 

Well I believe that certain cruises can start in June, its yes possible. I didn't say full bore every ship and like nothing happened. The peak here in the NJ/NY area in the 9th. Its gonna take about a month after than for it to really calm down that hospitals will get relief. Looking at the data though, July might be a better bet. Please use the website I am going to leave as a link. It gives me peace of mind because as bad as this is, it will calm down at some point. Then the real work begins, scientists can hopefully get a handle on what treatments help, and down the line a vaccine. 

 

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

So how did this work out?  It's amazing what has transpired between April and today. Still no sign of cruising starting up and we are probably about to enter phase II of this pandemic. Sorry I don't mean to call you out. I'm sure there are more posts like this on this thread but yours was the first one I saw as I scrolled up from the bottom.  One change is that it got better in NY and NJ but I don't see any sailings happening from here anytime soon.

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So how did this work out?  It's amazing what has transpired between April and today. Still no sign of cruising starting up and we are probably about to enter phase II of this pandemic. Sorry I don't mean to call you out. I'm sure there are more posts like this on this thread but yours was the first one I saw as I scrolled up from the bottom.  One change is that it got better in NY and NJ but I don't see any sailings happening from here anytime soon.
I have addressed this. I don't think cruises will start if everything goes perfectly late Spring/Early summer. Even that is a guess and it could be 2030.

Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk

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Just now, JAMESCC said:

I have addressed this. I don't think cruises will start if everything goes perfectly late Spring/Early summer. Even that is a guess and it could be 2030.

Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk
 

IK. To be honest I had no faith in summer sailings back in April but I never expected it go this far into the fall. Now January doesn't even look good.

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