Predict when cruising will start again post-Coronavirus

[christodan]

13 minutes ago, By The Bay said:

There are plenty of people eager to cruise again, including me. There is also a lot of negativity from the press and the powers that be. WA premier and NSW police Commissioner among them. 

True. I have faith that after an inquiry where an oversight by NSW Health was the reason  comes to light and  not cruise companies being irresponsible. Hopefully, powers that be can look at the facts without bias and recommend that cruise ships can return. As for the NSW police Commissioner, I would hope that this is out of his jurisdiction. If it is in his jurisdiction,  then perhaps P & O might choose to just sail out of  Melbourne or Brisbane or any other state that is more welcoming.

[Blackduck59]

For purely selfish reasons I am hoping that the Australian and New Zealand tourism industries start to put some pressure on all the Governments involved. As easy as some people seem to want to dismiss it, international travel is a multi billion dollar business for both countries. Domestic travel is all well and good but international visitors bring new money into the economy as opposed to domestic moneys being recycled in country.

Our planned vacation will bring about $10,000.00 into the economy of Australia and New Zealand and the does not include the airfare (Air New Zealand) or the cruise. Keeping in mind the port fees, fuel, provisions etc. that come from the cruise both in New Zealand and Australia. As time drags on and the locals can't hope to fill the hotels or restaurants or attractions. And the car hire companies, taxis, airlines etc. have record low ridership there will be a lot of push back against closed borders. I expect this to happen everywhere. Even in Canada the Prime Minister will only be able to keep it buttoned up for so long before Canadians tell him to pound sand. 

[Pushka]

49 minutes ago, Blackduck59 said:

For purely selfish reasons I am hoping that the Australian and New Zealand tourism industries start to put some pressure on all the Governments involved. As easy as some people seem to want to dismiss it, international travel is a multi billion dollar business for both countries. Domestic travel is all well and good but international visitors bring new money into the economy as opposed to domestic moneys being recycled in country.

Our planned vacation will bring about $10,000.00 into the economy of Australia and New Zealand and the does not include the airfare (Air New Zealand) or the cruise. Keeping in mind the port fees, fuel, provisions etc. that come from the cruise both in New Zealand and Australia. As time drags on and the locals can't hope to fill the hotels or restaurants or attractions. And the car hire companies, taxis, airlines etc. have record low ridership there will be a lot of push back against closed borders. I expect this to happen everywhere. Even in Canada the Prime Minister will only be able to keep it buttoned up for so long before Canadians tell him to pound sand. 

I can see International tourism being allowed but with strict conditions and which may involve quarantine on arrival. Cruises are a whole different kettle of fish. Maybe the vaccine will work but that will take 12 months to work it's way through the world. 

[ilikeanswers]

44 minutes ago, Blackduck59 said:

As easy as some people seem to want to dismiss it, international travel is a multi billion dollar business for both countries. 

 

But medical costs are expensive, sick people slow the economy down and mass deaths freak people out further reducing discretionary spending and turning every one into preppers😳. Look at Brazil trying to pretend everything is fine but the population is scared and that is having an overall negative impact on the economy. As much my as my heart wants tourism opened back up my brain understands why this has to be done slowly and carefully. If another big outbreak occurs people's faith in government response will disappear and that will only further the isolationist cause, further more that will only slow the reintroduction of international tourism as it will scare people from travelling overseas. It has to be done right otherwise the impact will be everlasting. 

[Chiliburn]

I wonder if princess will come under special scrutiny when they start to allow cruise ships to operate.

From what I understand 1 in 10 cases here can be traced back to the ruby princess and now the outbreak in north west Tasmania is traced back to that ship.

Princess seems to have more than its fair share of publicity.Theres the Japan,the one that ended in Miami and I think there was a episode in LA.

[MicCanberra]

Both royal and Carnival are going to be implementing very strict measures once cruising starts up again, many people will never cruise again until those restrictions are lessened (if ever). Quite a few chronic illnesses have been put in the mix apart from the usual coughs, colds, and fevers that may stop people boarding. Heavy fines if people lie and are found out about being sick and not disclosing it prior to boarding.

[Blackduck59]

16 minutes ago, Pushka said:

I can see International tourism being allowed but with strict conditions and which may involve quarantine on arrival. Cruises are a whole different kettle of fish. Maybe the vaccine will work but that will take 12 months to work it's way through the world. 

 

Quarantine on arrival will not work period, full stop. No one will spend $8,000.00 airfare so they can sit in quarantine for 2 weeks, not going to happen. People will submit to being tested before they leave home and when they arrive in country. Also there could be restrictions by country of origin, if a traveler is a resident of a country or area where the virus is well contained and is arriving direct from that country or via another country that has contained the outbreak then that would minimize the risk.

Sensible restrictions will work, the thought of a quarantining these guests to your country or my country or any country at their expense? In 2 words forget it.

[Chiliburn]

7 minutes ago, MicCanberra said:

Both royal and Carnival are going to be implementing very strict measures once cruising starts up again, many people will never cruise again until those restrictions are lessened (if ever). Quite a few chronic illnesses have been put in the mix apart from the usual coughs, colds, and fevers that may stop people boarding. Heavy fines if people lie and are found out about being sick and not disclosing it prior to boarding.

Mic there’s talk of social distancing.

I can’t think how that can be done on a ship because space is limited. I’ve even read about allocated time on the pool deck ,more dining times ,More show time’s that have to have a booking .

And scraping self serve at the buffet.       How much can a koala bear.

[Ondine]

18 hours ago, The_Big_M said:

 

It isn't, but just as they were willing to redeploy here before, if P&O were to restart then, then I'm sure you'd see some come back ASAP. 

 

 P&O Aus are in an interesting position.

 

They currently have 3 ships (Explorer, Dawn and Aria)

 

Pacific Adventure (Golden Princess) joins them in October this year giving them 4 ships

Pacific Dawn leaves in February - back to 3 ships

Pacific Aria leaves in April - down to 2 ships

Pacific Encounter (Star Princess?) joins in November 21 - back to 3 ships

 

I wonder if the sales of Dawn and Aria will go ahead without any problems.

 

Not sure if they are in a good position or a bad one with ships joining and leaving.

[Pushka]

7 minutes ago, Blackduck59 said:

 

Quarantine on arrival will not work period, full stop. No one will spend $8,000.00 airfare so they can sit in quarantine for 2 weeks, not going to happen. People will submit to being tested before they leave home and when they arrive in country. Also there could be restrictions by country of origin, if a traveler is a resident of a country or area where the virus is well contained and is arriving direct from that country or via another country that has contained the outbreak then that would minimize the risk.

Sensible restrictions will work, the thought of a quarantining these guests to your country or my country or any country at their expense? In 2 words forget it.

Yes, I agree it's not going to be acceptable but unless there is a vaccine I can't see any way round that for the interim. I'm not sure any country has Covid well contained right now - or at least comparable except NZ. The rapid test may be acceptable but that hasn't been touted as yet. Currently we Aussies can't even leave the country right now, nor travel to the other states. 

[Chiliburn]

6 minutes ago, Blackduck59 said:

 

Quarantine on arrival will not work period, full stop. No one will spend $8,000.00 airfare so they can sit in quarantine for 2 weeks, not going to happen. People will submit to being tested before they leave home and when they arrive in country. Also there could be restrictions by country of origin, if a traveler is a resident of a country or area where the virus is well contained and is arriving direct from that country or via another country that has contained the outbreak then that would minimize the risk.

Sensible restrictions will work, the thought of a quarantining these guests to your country or my country or any country at their expense? In 2 words forget it.

2 weeks in a resort would be ok where you can move around but it’s 2 weeks locked in a room,just like gaol.

 I was chatting with a couple that has the whole Australian season booked on serenade of the seas .As they said they are prepared for 2 weeks.

[The_Big_M]

49 minutes ago, Pushka said:

I can see International tourism being allowed but with strict conditions and which may involve quarantine on arrival. Cruises are a whole different kettle of fish. Maybe the vaccine will work but that will take 12 months to work it's way through the world. 

 

Cruises don't generate sickness, so are of less risk than international travel where the origin/condition of the traveller is unknown.

 

Cruises would be medically viable ahead of international travel... though of course politics may get in the way.

[Blackduck59]

16 minutes ago, Pushka said:

Yes, I agree it's not going to be acceptable but unless there is a vaccine I can't see any way round that for the interim. I'm not sure any country has Covid well contained right now - or at least comparable except NZ. The rapid test may be acceptable but that hasn't been touted as yet. Currently we Aussies can't even leave the country right now, nor travel to the other states. 

 

Actually there are several countries that have done a good job of containing this, Australia, New Zealand and Canada are all working very hard and doing well at flattening the curve. I take it some states in Australia are having better results than others, just as some provinces are doing better in Canada. Canada is the second largest country in the world and what is happening here on the west coast is different than the prairies which is different than central Canada, the far north and the maritimes. We are finding clusters of new cases in British Columbia many from 3 different work places and another cluster in a federal prison. There are almost no reports of community spread from public contact.

[lyndarra]

31 minutes ago, Pushka said:

Yes, I agree it's not going to be acceptable but unless there is a vaccine I can't see any way round that for the interim. I'm not sure any country has Covid well contained right now - or at least comparable except NZ. The rapid test may be acceptable but that hasn't been touted as yet. Currently we Aussies can't even leave the country right now, nor travel to the other states. 

Taiwan has done very well. Similar population to Australia. Deaths/million Taiwan 0.30. Australia 3.00, NZ 4.00

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[ilikeanswers]

26 minutes ago, lyndarra said:

Taiwan has done very well. Similar population to Australia. Deaths/million Taiwan 0.30. Australia 3.00, NZ 4.00

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

Taiwan started containment early. Perhaps it is time to put Taiwan at the top of our holiday lists😂. 

[OzKiwiJJ]

2 hours ago, Pushka said:

Yes, I agree it's not going to be acceptable but unless there is a vaccine I can't see any way round that for the interim. I'm not sure any country has Covid well contained right now - or at least comparable except NZ. The rapid test may be acceptable but that hasn't been touted as yet. Currently we Aussies can't even leave the country right now, nor travel to the other states. 

Hong Kong has done better than NZ and has had zero cases in the last five days. Very surprising given how crowded HK is.

[Pushka]

2 hours ago, Blackduck59 said:

 

Actually there are several countries that have done a good job of containing this, Australia, New Zealand and Canada are all working very hard and doing well at flattening the curve. I take it some states in Australia are having better results than others, just as some provinces are doing better in Canada. Canada is the second largest country in the world and what is happening here on the west coast is different than the prairies which is different than central Canada, the far north and the maritimes. We are finding clusters of new cases in British Columbia many from 3 different work places and another cluster in a federal prison. There are almost no reports of community spread from public contact.

Australia and Canada started on almost exactly the same path with Covid but diverged significantly along the way. This is just over a week old now but it an interesting comparison.  I dont think the author shares your views as to how well Canada has done

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-canada-and-australia-a-tale-of-two-covid-19-responses/

 

Both Hong Kong and Taiwan were prepared to close their borders to mainland China and Taiwan in particular closed their borders a full week before anyone, including WHO, did so. They knew China and its secrecy very very well, and had experience with SARS

https://womensagenda.com.au/latest/taiwans-first-female-president-is-delivering-a-stunning-covid-19-response/

 

And Taiwan's VP is an epidemiologist

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/taiwans-vice-president-chen-chien-jen-countrys-fight-covid-19/

 

 

[Vader1111]

2 hours ago, Blackduck59 said:

 

Actually there are several countries that have done a good job of containing this, Australia, New Zealand and Canada are all working very hard and doing well at flattening the curve. I take it some states in Australia are having better results than others, just as some provinces are doing better in Canada. Canada is the second largest country in the world and what is happening here on the west coast is different than the prairies which is different than central Canada, the far north and the maritimes. We are finding clusters of new cases in British Columbia many from 3 different work places and another cluster in a federal prison. There are almost no reports of community spread from public contact.

Four of Australia's states & territories have basically eliminated CV-19 - South Australia, Western Australia, Northern Territory and the Australian Capital Territory.  The other states still have small pockets producing positives on a regular basis.

 

Australia won't be re-opening the border anytime soon.  Probably not this year.  The only people being allowed in at this time are citizens and permanent residents.  All returnees are forced to spend 2 weeks in quarantine, which usually takes the form of a 4-5 star hotel room.  Western Australian returnees may be fortunate enough to spend their 2 weeks on Rottnest Island, but none of the other states have that luxury.

 

There's talk of Australia & NZ opening the borders to each other, and possibly expanding this to a "South Pacific Bubble" including countries such as Vanuatu & Fiji.  They won't be allowing arrivals from beyond this bubble any time in the foreseeable future.

 

Even if Canada does succeed in beating CV-19, the way that Australia & NZ have, your proximity to the USA means that Canada will remain an unacceptable risk for a long time to come.  You share the world's longest unguarded border, and the risk is just too great of having infections jump your borders.

Edited April 30, 2020 by Vader1111

[ilikeanswers]

32 minutes ago, Vader1111 said:

Even if Canada does succeed in beating CV-19, the way that Australia & NZ have, your proximity to the USA means that Canada will remain an unacceptable risk for a long time to come.  You share the world's longest unguarded border, and the risk is just too great of having infections jump your borders.

 

If Canada stops having new infections we probably would open borders to them. But if USA still has cases and after Canada re opens their land border there is another wave of outbreak then we probably won't consider letting anyone in from North America for another year. The real issue is the potential for a second wave, that is why we need to re open borders right the first time because if we open and infections start again it will scare society and make people want to keep the borders closed. 

[ilikeanswers]

1 hour ago, OzKiwiJJ said:

Hong Kong has done better than NZ and has had zero cases in the last five days. Very surprising given how crowded HK is.

 

Experience is the best teacher. They suffered the SARS outbreak which is what made them prepared for COVID19, however because of politics they kept their border open way too long otherwise they would be on the same level as Taiwan, but still they have done very well in spite of the politics. 

[DiamondFour]

I cannot see Australia opening international borders anytime soon. Too many people would circumvent the rules by flying to that country and then getting another flight to a third country. We may see New Zealand open but that is about it. I do not think cruises will start this year while the commission of inquiry is still going on.

 

The issues we need to look at is the NSW and QLD football games. Will they go ahead? If they do then businesses will rightly demand that restrictions be dropped for them. Why is it fair for a football competition to take place when pubs and clubs remain closed or Qantas and Virgin have their planes parked up.

 

P&O Australia is another one to watch closely and if they start where they sail to.

 

Will there be a second wave? I doubt it. Even if restrictions are lifted chances are we have likely avoided it completely with the remaining infections killed off.

 

The government has made it clear that we are not to expect international travel any time this year.

 

If a vaccine is found (and it will) then all of that could change considerably faster. If you have been reading closely about the chinese bat lady that the intelligence agencies are watching she has admitted that communities in china close to where these bats were found had natural immunity to their viruses as their blood was full of the antibodies. It means that immunisation is possible.

 

Also the new ebola drug the US is watching appears to have some promise.

 

My honest guess now is that recovery will be rapid once a vaccine is released. Things will change but there will be demand for travel to resume. Business does not want to lose any more money and the governments around the world know that they rely on tourism to survive.

[MicCanberra]

5 hours ago, Chiliburn said:

Mic there’s talk of social distancing.

I can’t think how that can be done on a ship because space is limited. I’ve even read about allocated time on the pool deck ,more dining times ,More show time’s that have to have a booking .

And scraping self serve at the buffet.       How much can a koala bear.

I don't see issues with any of those measures either.

Bears can bare a lot.

[MicCanberra]

5 hours ago, Ondine said:

 P&O Aus are in an interesting position.

 

They currently have 3 ships (Explorer, Dawn and Aria)

 

Pacific Adventure (Golden Princess) joins them in October this year giving them 4 ships

Pacific Dawn leaves in February - back to 3 ships

Pacific Aria leaves in April - down to 2 ships

Pacific Encounter (Star Princess?) joins in November 21 - back to 3 ships

 

I wonder if the sales of Dawn and Aria will go ahead without any problems.

 

Not sure if they are in a good position or a bad one with ships joining and leaving.

turning over ships means that those loyal to the brand will try the new ones despite being 2nd hand.

[lyndarra]

2 hours ago, Pushka said:

Australia and Canada started on almost exactly the same path with Covid but diverged significantly along the way. This is just over a week old now but it an interesting comparison.  I dont think the author shares your views as to how well Canada has done

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-canada-and-australia-a-tale-of-two-covid-19-responses/

 

Both Hong Kong and Taiwan were prepared to close their borders to mainland China and Taiwan in particular closed their borders a full week before anyone, including WHO, did so. They knew China and its secrecy very very well, and had experience with SARS

https://womensagenda.com.au/latest/taiwans-first-female-president-is-delivering-a-stunning-covid-19-response/

 

And Taiwan's VP is an epidemiologist

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/taiwans-vice-president-chen-chien-jen-countrys-fight-covid-19/

 

 

And WHO ignored Taiwan when they were advised early in the piece. I think Taiwan also advised the US. They really were on top of it from the start.

[Pushka]

AFL and NRL will not be able to start until interstate borders are lifted and players can freely travel across states. Currently NSW is an issue. There will not be crowds. 
 

I am annoyed today that Ruby Princess passenger was singled out as the reason why NW Tasmania public health is in lockdown. This was not the fault of the cruise - Nor the passengers, but rather deficiencies or whatever the cause, in the way the staff managed infection control when dealing with a patient. That was a total cop out by Tasmania Public Health.  Their infection control is very sus. 

Edited April 30, 2020 by Pushka