Carnival Stock

[Ripper3785]

5 hours ago, npcl said:

Don't think they are going to go back to normal anytime soon either. All of the things you listed are going are going to operate dramatically different, even once shelter in place is over, compared to how they operated prior to this.  If they are allowed to re-open.

I agree.  In the same vein- last night I was imagining how the future of cruising could look.  Thermal imaging monitors/scanners to detect fevers at boarding(including at ports of call), at the entrance to theaters, dining rooms and other locations where people are in close quarters.  Have seen this at several international airports over the years.  The key to this thing is to identify and isolate.  A 7+ day cruise is a terrible place for someone with a highly infectious respiratory illness.  'Patient 31' in South Korea was the common contact responsible for the infection of almost 6000 people.  Cruising needs to look safe to potential cruisers, and cruise lines will have to make an effort to quell the concern of the public.

 

We might think it's over the top and not 100% effective.  Akin to TSA post 9/11.  There will be a new normal. 

Edited April 9, 2020 by Ripper3785

[Mackenzie1]

45 minutes ago, bluesea321 said:

 

He bought $10 million worth of shares at $8, i.e., 1.25 million shares, not 10 million.

 

https://investorplace.com/2020/04/insider-buying-news-carnival-board-member-buys-ccl-stock/

Thanks for the correction. I’m happy, though, because It shows a vote of confidence by management.  By the way, I smile when posters here point out posts that are off topic since this whole thread is off topic. This thread is not about cruising, it’s about how to trade CCL stock and options. 

[bluesea321]

6 minutes ago, Mackenzie1 said:

Thanks for the correction. I’m happy, though, because It shows a vote of confidence by management.  By the way, I smile when posters here point out posts that are off topic since this whole thread is off topic. This thread is not about cruising, it’s about how to trade CCL stock and options. 

 

LOL...  I agree.

[npcl]

23 minutes ago, Mackenzie1 said:

Thanks for the correction. I’m happy, though, because It shows a vote of confidence by management.  By the way, I smile when posters here point out posts that are off topic since this whole thread is off topic. This thread is not about cruising, it’s about how to trade CCL stock and options. 

OF course the price of the stock is rather closely tied to when cruising is going to start back up again.

[oskidunker]

When cruising starts it will go up like a rocket and plunge when the first person gets sick

[phred119s]

2 hours ago, Ombud said:

Dr Fauci stated that he could see summer travel but not before that so I'm not cruising until September 

 

I've bought now all the way up & down ... 14.55, 15.79, 17.79, 8.69, 13.02 .... will eventually only hold 100 shares. 

We are used to traveling (though not always by ship) every month or two. I’m about to go stir crazy. Our cruise (booked last summer) is in July. 🤞🏻🤞🏻🤞🏻🤞🏻🤞🏻 We’ve identified a September back up if needed. 

[Thrak]

4 minutes ago, phred119s said:

We are used to traveling (though not always by ship) every month or two. I’m about to go stir crazy. Our cruise (booked last summer) is in July. 🤞🏻🤞🏻🤞🏻🤞🏻🤞🏻 We’ve identified a September back up if needed. 

 

Closure of campgrounds has pretty much killed our summer travel that was planned. At this point there is one US National Park we can get to fairly easily that, while most of the park activities are closed, the campground is still open. We made reservations but don't count on them being fulfilled. We're booked for 5 days later this month.  I'd love to take our scheduled cruises but don't know if they will happen or if my wife will decide we need to cancel no matter what. We're not scheduled to cruise until November but, in addition to the time spent on the ship (33 days) there would be two very long flights involved. She may well just say, "No freaking way".  Pretty much the only reply I could make to that would be, "Yes, Dear."

[phred119s]

20 minutes ago, Thrak said:

 

Closure of campgrounds has pretty much killed our summer travel that was planned. At this point there is one US National Park we can get to fairly easily that, while most of the park activities are closed, the campground is still open. We made reservations but don't count on them being fulfilled. We're booked for 5 days later this month.  I'd love to take our scheduled cruises but don't know if they will happen or if my wife will decide we need to cancel no matter what. We're not scheduled to cruise until November but, in addition to the time spent on the ship (33 days) there would be two very long flights involved. She may well just say, "No freaking way".  Pretty much the only reply I could make to that would be, "Yes, Dear."

😂😂 ...because in early February my husband was saying if this didn’t all calm down we weren’t going. I blankly looked at him and said, “it’s in July.” About a week or two later he mentioned it to our 7 year old. She wasn’t around when we had the previous conversation. She replied, “daddy, it’s in July.” So he has two women to keep happy. 😉 Our daughter is actually already getting worked up about the what if’s of our Baltic cruise getting cancelled. 
 

To be honest, after 3 weeks in the house I’d go about anywhere right now even if it was a hotel 30 mins away.  The bright side is every single room in the house is getting a deep clean right now. 

[Thrak]

1 minute ago, phred119s said:

To be honest, after 3 weeks in the house I’d go about anywhere right now even if it was a hotel 30 mins away.  The bright side is every single room in the house is getting a deep clean right now. 

 

After multiple weeks at home we now have the added challenge of my daughter, her husband, and our youngest (18 months) grandchild suddenly living with us. We raised 3 kids of our own and my wife ran a home daycare for 20 years - I actually worked for her for 4.5 years doing child care. I thought I was done with small children in my home other than visits. Suddenly things are even more strange than they were. One never knows what life is going to dish out. With luck I will keep the last few brain cells (and hairs) I still have.

[phred119s]

8 minutes ago, Thrak said:

 

After multiple weeks at home we now have the added challenge of my daughter, her husband, and our youngest (18 months) grandchild suddenly living with us. We raised 3 kids of our own and my wife ran a home daycare for 20 years - I actually worked for her for 4.5 years doing child care. I thought I was done with small children in my home other than visits. Suddenly things are even more strange than they were. One never knows what life is going to dish out. With luck I will keep the last few brain cells (and hairs) I still have.

Wishing you luck!!!  Hope you guys adjust well to a little one being around all the time. 

[caribill]

4 hours ago, Thrak said:

 

After multiple weeks at home we now have the added challenge of my daughter, her husband, and our youngest (18 months) grandchild suddenly living with us...... With luck I will keep the last few brain cells (and hairs) I still have.

 

I don't know about the hairs, but it looks like you do have your heirs with you.

[richmke]

I wonder if CCL will offer to let people exchange FCC for stock. Other threads are complaining about delays in receiving refunds. If CCL doesn't clear the refund backlog soon (after raising all the money), then the stock is worthless.

 

[JT1962]

It will be interesting to see the effect of the new CDC No Sail rule on the stock price today.


https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/s0409-modifications-extension-no-sail-ships.html

[Mackenzie1]

1 hour ago, JT1962 said:

It will be interesting to see the effect of the new CDC No Sail rule on the stock price today.


https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/s0409-modifications-extension-no-sail-ships.html

 

The markets are closed today for Good Friday.  This article gives some back story to the Saudi investment in Carnival:

 

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/carnival-cruises-saudi-arabia-trump_n_5e8f3ef4c5b6b371812d3cdf

[JT1962]

 
The markets are closed today for Good Friday.  This article gives some back story to the Saudi investment in Carnival:
 
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/carnival-cruises-saudi-arabia-trump_n_5e8f3ef4c5b6b371812d3cdf

Yes, I forgot the markets were closed today. It will be Monday before we know any effect the CDC announcement will have on cruise stocks. That could be why the announcement came after the markets closed yesterday to lessen the impact.

As far as the Saudi stock purchases, unless I am missing something, this did not provide Carnival with a “bailout” or any additional cash. The stock was previously issued shares purchased in the open market prior to the new stock issue by Carnival last week. It did help the stock price when the news was released, and the Saudis may be willing to loan money to Carnival in the future, but the the stock purchase did not provide any cash to Carnival.

[Mackenzie1]

Oh, I see.  I had assumed the Saudi's participated in Carnival's recent equity and debt offering.

Edited April 10, 2020 by Mackenzie1

[JT1962]

Oh, I see.  I had assumed the Saudi's participated in Carnival's recent equity and debt offering.'

That is what most of the headlines and articles would make you think. I’m not sure if those writing the stories actually understand the process or are just making it appear that the Saudi’s gave Carnival a lot of cash.

[c-boy]

13 hours ago, Thrak said:

 

After multiple weeks at home we now have the added challenge of my daughter, her husband, and our youngest (18 months) grandchild suddenly living with us. We raised 3 kids of our own and my wife ran a home daycare for 20 years - I actually worked for her for 4.5 years doing child care. I thought I was done with small children in my home other than visits. Suddenly things are even more strange than they were. One never knows what life is going to dish out. With luck I will keep the last few brain cells (and hairs) I still have.

 

 

The good ole days ... coming soon to a family near you

[oskidunker]

Glad I sold yesterday. 

[gmjc2]

Sorry about those sticklers for the thread purity!!  I for one am having fun reading all these " off topic " posts!!

[npcl]

3 hours ago, JT1962 said:

 

Yes, I forgot the markets were closed today. It will be Monday before we know any effect the CDC announcement will have on cruise stocks. That could be why the announcement came after the markets closed yesterday to lessen the impact.

As far as the Saudi stock purchases, unless I am missing something, this did not provide Carnival with a “bailout” or any additional cash. The stock was previously issued shares purchased in the open market prior to the new stock issue by Carnival last week. It did help the stock price when the news was released, and the Saudis may be willing to loan money to Carnival in the future, but the the stock purchase did not provide any cash to Carnival.

 

Are you sure about that?  From everything I have seen it appears that they were 350 million of the 500 million in the recent offering.

 

According to filing the shares from the recent sale transferred on April 6, the same day that the Saudi 13G was filed. While a 13G can be delayed up to 45 days after ownership crosses 5%.  No sign that the Saudi's were acquiring prior to the offering.  Good deal for them so far if they bought in the offering.  Bad deal if they were purchasing at market prior to the offering.

 

So what are you basing your view on?

 

That said the HuffingtonPost article is trying to weave a story on what is a very thin matter of coincidence, instead of having any actual facts.

 

It also appears that the board members $10 million purchase was also from the new offering.

 

 

Edited April 10, 2020 by npcl

[JT1962]

Are you sure about that?  From everything I have seen it appears that they were 350 million of the 500 million in the recent offering.
 
According to filing the shares from the recent sale transferred on April 6, the same day that the Saudi 13G was filed. While a 13G can be delayed up to 45 days after ownership crosses 5%.  No sign that the Saudi's were acquiring prior to the offering.  Good deal for them so far if they bought in the offering.  Bad deal if they were purchasing at market prior to the offering.
 
So what are you basing your view on?
 
That said the HuffingtonPost article is trying to weave a story on what is a very thin matter of coincidence, instead of having any actual facts.
 
It also appears that the board members $10 million purchase was also from the new offering.
 
 

Based on the filing with the SEC, the shares were held as of March 25 and did not include any shares in the new issue on April 6. That does not mean that they may not have purchased additional shares in the new offering, but the large stake that was reported was purchased prior to the new issue at an average of over $17 per share from one report I saw.


https://www.carnivalcorp.com/node/61031/html


“(1) Based on 527,817,680 shares of common stock of Carnival Corporation (the “Issuer”) outstanding as of March 25, 2020, as reported in the Issuer’s Form 10-Q filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on April 3, 2020. The number of outstanding shares used to calculate this percentage does not include shares of common stock to be issued in the Issuer’s underwritten public offering scheduled to close on or about April 6, 2020.”

[npcl]

1 hour ago, JT1962 said:

 

 

Based on the filing with the SEC, the shares were held as of March 25 and did not include any shares in the new issue on April 6. That does not mean that they may not have purchased additional shares in the new offering, but the large stake that was reported was purchased prior to the new issue at an average of over $17 per share from one report I saw.


https://www.carnivalcorp.com/node/61031/html


“(1) Based on 527,817,680 shares of common stock of Carnival Corporation (the “Issuer”) outstanding as of March 25, 2020, as reported in the Issuer’s Form 10-Q filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on April 3, 2020. The number of outstanding shares used to calculate this percentage does not include shares of common stock to be issued in the Issuer’s underwritten public offering scheduled to close on or about April 6, 2020.”

 

 

That is simply the last published stock total information from the 10Q.  They have to use an official figure in the filing to determine the percentage.  Since there has not been an updated filing with the new total since the offering they have to use the most recent total.

 

As such it is the last filing that included the total shares issued by the company.  It does not mean that the shares were all acquired then.  Fairly normal in 13G filings to reference the last 10K or 10Q released by the company as the last official and filed statement of the number of shares outstanding.  

 

 

[oskidunker]

Anyone care to venture a guess as to what the stock will open at Monday? There always seems to be huge movement while the market is closed. Put in a buy at 8. Anyone think that is too high?

[npcl]

15 minutes ago, oskidunker said:

Anyone care to venture a guess as to what the stock will open at Monday? There always seems to be huge movement while the market is closed. Put in a buy at 8. Anyone think that is too high?

Just following some technical methods here but the stock has been following a pattern of a drop, followed by a 50% Fibonacci retracement, followed by a drop, followed by a 50% retracement.

 

The next leg down following the pattern would be to somewhere around  $6.50, since the stock did not close above the $13 retracement point.  but these days the fundamentals or for that matter technical factors do not seem to matter much just emotion.

 

The real question is where does the stock end up when the market gets beyond the immediate virus impact and really starts to understand the depth of the recession we are going to be entering into. I think too many people are thinking that things will return to the old normal once the peaks pass and the shelter in place orders are relaxed.