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WoW! Just read 2 pages of posts! Some of you guys must be math whizes! All those figures make my eyes roll up !!

 

We bought CCL at 12.43 and thought it was great then it started going down even further but we will wait . It will go back up.

We did get NCLH at 9.00 so that will pay off nicely in a couple of years.

 

OBC will be nice next cruise also!

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12 hours ago, cruzsnooze said:

maybe 

Maybe not..................per that article 

 people just optimistically re-booking their canceled cruise for next year

 people applying their future cruise credits from sailings that were cancelled this year

 

We'll have to see what really happens. 

Right now, I think Carnival is in the best position to survive this crisis.  Of the big three, I think NCL is probably the most vulnerable.  If NCL folds, Carnival would be in a good position to take some market share when the cruise industry recovers.

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On 4/1/2020 at 3:34 PM, Chief Vette said:

I shorted CCL when the Diamond Princess was on lock-down in Japan.  I netted over$15K on that trade.  Used the profits to pay off my mortgage.

 

Excellent outcome.

 

A nice counter-point to the years and years of buy, buy, buy ... you will get onboard credit ... posted here.

 

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17 hours ago, Aus Traveller said:

It is unfortunate that the passengers will be flying all over the country and possibly to other countries. From March 21st, only Australian citizens or residents have been permitted to enter the country, but they have to go into quarantine in a hotel (guarded by the military) for 14 days at the government's expense. A few of them have complained, but they don't get much sympathy. 

 

Australia seems to be handling this far better than the US and like you I find it unfortunate that the pax will be flying commercial to other places.  Australia has 1/25 the number of deaths per 1M population than the US even though they have tested many more per 1M population. 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/?source=122648

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At the close of the market Friday, CCL was trading for $8.49.  I will not drop much lower now that it is at rock bottom.  Dividends have been suspended of course as CCL tries to recover when the ships start sailing again.  Now is the time to buy?

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5 minutes ago, satxdiver said:

At the close of the market Friday, CCL was trading for $8.49.  I will not drop much lower now that it is at rock bottom.  Dividends have been suspended of course as CCL tries to recover when the ships start sailing again.  Now is the time to buy?

 

Wait.  I bought some CCL on Friday.  Sadly, this guarantees that it will go down over the next couple days.

 

Edited by Roberto256
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18 minutes ago, satxdiver said:

At the close of the market Friday, CCL was trading for $8.49.  I will not drop much lower now that it is at rock bottom.  Dividends have been suspended of course as CCL tries to recover when the ships start sailing again.  Now is the time to buy?

 

Let's see their only income stream is not going to re-appear for months on end, they will need to let go crews shortly to preserve cash and they already have signifcant debt and future obligations, tell me why it won't go lower?

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I bought (for the first time ever) 100 shares on Thursday for $8.20 a share.  When this all started, my hubby and I had talked about if the price got to under $20 a share we would buy.  Because we are new to all of this, 

it took us a couple weeks to get the courage and figure out how to do it.  Luckily for us, being dumb paid off (at least I hope so!).  I called a financial planner who told me if that’s all I wanted to do, to just go online and use an online broker.  Prices were down to just under $8 a share.  After researching a few, I got up the courage and picked one, filled out the forms and started the process.  By this time the prices had gone back up to between $11 and $12 a share.  I was kicking myself for dragging my feet, but still thought that was a good price (shoot, we were willing to pay $18 to $20 a share a few weeks ago!).  We waited 2 days and the prices were going down again.  When it got to $9 a share I put in an order (or bid, or whatever you call it) for $8.50 a share and hit the buy button (this was Wednesday evening).  Thursday morning I watched with anticipation as the numbers started moving!  The numbers started out in the high 7’s; and within 10 minutes “ding”, I got a notice.....100 shares purchased at $8.20 a share.  This was better than the $8.50 bid I put in, but darn, my greedy side wished I had put in a bid for $8!!!  But, I’m not going to sniffle for a measly extra $20!!!

We are thrilled with our purchase and are VERY optimistic!  And, if they do happen to go belly up then such is life!!!  We will also be out the price of our cancelled cruise since we opted for the 225% FCC!  But, hey, you can’t take it with you!

Hoping we all see smooth seas in the not too distant future🚢

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2 hours ago, chipmaster said:

 

Let's see their only income stream is not going to re-appear for months on end, they will need to let go crews shortly to preserve cash and they already have signifcant debt and future obligations, tell me why it won't go lower?

 

It cannot go much lower at $8.49 after a precipitous fall from the ~$40 - $50 it was at.  CCL is already looking at warm storage for some of their ships and cold storage for the rest of the 105 ships in the fleet.  It is estimated that warm storage would cost ~$3 million/month versus ~$1 million per month for cold storage.  If this goes much longer look for many of the crew sent home with only a smaller number aboard to service the ship.  At this point the most one can lose is $8.49/share. 

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22 minutes ago, satxdiver said:

 

It cannot go much lower at $8.49 after a precipitous fall from the ~$40 - $50 it was at.  CCL is already looking at warm storage for some of their ships and cold storage for the rest of the 105 ships in the fleet.  It is estimated that warm storage would cost ~$3 million/month versus ~$1 million per month for cold storage.  If this goes much longer look for many of the crew sent home with only a smaller number aboard to service the ship.  At this point the most one can lose is $8.49/share. 

 

If you are looking at a 100 shares I guess you could look at it as 850 bucks and change thrown to the winds, or you could look at it as a % loss. I could easily see it go to 4 bucks so that would be a 50% loss!  There are a lot better bets to be made than CCL IMHO, LOL

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3 hours ago, satxdiver said:

At the close of the market Friday, CCL was trading for $8.49.  I will not drop much lower now that it is at rock bottom.  Dividends have been suspended of course as CCL tries to recover when the ships start sailing again.  Now is the time to buy?

Yup, but you are are going to have to be willing to hold it for 2-3 years.  If they do survive, you will probably make a very good return.

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7 minutes ago, chipmaster said:

 

If you are looking at a 100 shares I guess you could look at it as 850 bucks and change thrown to the winds, or you could look at it as a % loss. I could easily see it go to 4 bucks so that would be a 50% loss!  There are a lot better bets to be made than CCL IMHO, LOL

 

One could also look at it that in a few years the 100 shares would be worth $4000+ to be used to pay for a short cruise.   In early 2009 I bought 400 shares of RCL at $8 a share and two years or so later sold 300 of the shares for a nice $12,000 profit paying for several cruises.  My regret is that I did not hang onto the stock for a few more years as it moved close to $100/share.  You put your money down and take your chances. 

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5 minutes ago, travelhound said:

Yup, but you are are going to have to be willing to hold it for 2-3 years.  If they do survive, you will probably make a very good return.

I am a long term investor and not that interested in short term gain.  

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14 hours ago, chipmaster said:

 

If you are looking at a 100 shares I guess you could look at it as 850 bucks and change thrown to the winds, or you could look at it as a % loss. I could easily see it go to 4 bucks so that would be a 50% loss!  There are a lot better bets to be made than CCL IMHO, LOL

 

I think at $4, I'd be willing to go through the couch cushions, and try and find the cash for another 100 shares.

 

Of course, based on past investing, as soon as I do, shares will be at $3.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Roberto256 said:

 

I think at $4, I'd be willing to go through the couch cushions, and try and find the cash for another 100 shares.

 

Of course, based on past investing, as soon as I do, shares will be at $3.

 

 

It's going to many years before significant growth returns to CCL.

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9 minutes ago, MissP22 said:

It's going to many years before significant growth returns to CCL.

 

If at all.  In the 1990s who would have thought that Kodak would go bankrupt?  They were the darling of photography, from National Geographic to Getty Images...  But the business model changed and they could not adapt.  I fear much the same for the cruise industry.  The only ray of hope I see is a highly effective vaccine that works for nearly all, and that may or may not happen.  The flu vaccine is only 50% effective.

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In Carnival Corporation's own words from their latest SEC financial filings:

 

Due to the outbreak of COVID-19 on some of our ships, and the resulting illness and loss of life in certain instances, we have been the subject of negative publicity which could have a long term impact on the appeal of our brands, which would diminish demand for vacations on our vessels. We cannot predict how long the negative impact of recent media attention on our brands will last, or the level of investment that will be required to address the concerns of potential travelers through marketing and pricing actions.

 

We have received, and expect to continue to receive, lawsuits from passengers aboard the Grand Princess voyage in February 2020. We may receive additional lawsuits stemming from COVID-19. We cannot predict the quantum or outcome of any such proceedings and the impact that they will have on our financial results, but any such impact may be material. We also remain subject to extensive, complex, and closely monitored obligations under the court-ordered environmental compliance plan supervised by the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Florida, as a result of the previously disclosed settlement agreement relating to the violation of probation conditions for a plea agreement entered into by Princess Cruises and the U.S. Department of Justice in 2016. We remain fully committed to satisfying those obligations. However, COVID-19 presents enormous challenges for the Company, which could result in material adverse impacts.

 

We have insurance coverage for certain liabilities, costs and expenses related to COVID-19 through our participation in Protection and Indemnity (“P&I”) clubs, including coverage for direct and incremental costs including, but not limited to, certain quarantine expenses and for certain liabilities to passengers and crew. P&I clubs are mutual indemnity associations owned by members. There is a $10 million deductible per occurrence (meaning per outbreak on a particular ship). We cannot assure you that we will receive insurance proceeds that will compensate us fully for our liabilities, costs and expenses under these policies. We have no insurance coverage for loss of revenues or earnings from our ships or other operations.

 

We have a total of 16 cruise ships scheduled to be delivered through 2025, including four during the remainder of fiscal 2020. We believe the effects of COVID-19 on the shipyards where our ships are under construction will result in a delay in ship deliveries, which we cannot predict and may be prolonged.

 

We cannot predict when any of our ships will begin to sail again and ports will reopen to our ships. Moreover, even once travel advisories and restrictions are lifted, demand for cruises may remain weak for a significant length of time and we cannot predict if and when each brand will return to pre-outbreak demand or fare pricing. In particular, our bookings may be negatively impacted by the adverse changes in the perceived or actual economic climate, including higher unemployment rates, declines in income levels and loss of personal wealth resulting from the impact of COVID-19. In addition, we cannot predict the impact COVID-19 will have on our partners, such as travel agencies, suppliers and other vendors. We may be adversely impacted as a result of the adverse impact our partners suffer.

 

We have never previously experienced a complete cessation of our cruising operations, and as a consequence, our ability to be predictive regarding the impact of such a cessation on our brands and future prospects is uncertain. In particular, we cannot predict the impact on our financial performance and our cash flows required for cash refunds of deposits as a result of the pause in our global fleet cruise operations, which may be prolonged, and the public’s concern regarding the health and safety of travel, especially by cruise ship, and related decreases in demand for travel and cruising. Moreover, our ability to attract and retain guests and crew depends, in part, upon the perception and reputation of our company and our brands and the public’s concerns regarding the health and safety of travel generally, as well as regarding the cruising industry and our ships specifically. As a result, we expect a net loss on both a U.S. GAAP and adjusted basis for the fiscal year ending November 30, 2020, and our ability to forecast our cash inflows and additional capital needs is hampered.

 

As a result of all of the foregoing, we may be required to raise additional capital and our access to and cost of financing will depend on, among other things, global economic conditions, conditions in the global financing markets, the availability of sufficient amounts of financing, our prospects and our credit ratings. As a result of COVID-19, in March 2020, Moody's and S&P Global downgraded our long-term issuer and senior unsecured debt ratings. In addition, our long-term ratings were placed on review for further downgrade by both rating agencies. Our short-term commercial paper credit ratings were also placed on review for downgrade. If our credit ratings were to be further downgraded, or general market conditions were to ascribe higher risk to our rating levels, our industry, or us, our access to capital and the cost of any debt financing will be further negatively impacted. In addition, the terms of future debt agreements could include more restrictive covenants, or require incremental collateral, which may further restrict our business operations or be unavailable due to our covenant restrictions then in effect. There is no guarantee that debt financings will be available in the future to fund our obligations, or that they will be available on terms consistent with our expectations. Additionally, the impact of COVID-19 on the financial markets is expected to adversely impact our ability to raise funds through equity financings.

 

 

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42 minutes ago, Ride-The-Waves said:

In Carnival Corporation's own words from their latest SEC financial filings:

 

Due to the outbreak of COVID-19 on some of our ships, and the resulting illness and loss of life in certain instances, we have been the subject of negative publicity which could have a long term impact on the appeal of our brands, which would diminish demand for vacations on our vessels. We cannot predict how long the negative impact of recent media attention on our brands will last, or the level of investment that will be required to address the concerns of potential travelers through marketing and pricing actions.

 

We have received, and expect to continue to receive, lawsuits from passengers aboard the Grand Princess voyage in February 2020. We may receive additional lawsuits stemming from COVID-19. We cannot predict the quantum or outcome of any such proceedings and the impact that they will have on our financial results, but any such impact may be material. We also remain subject to extensive, complex, and closely monitored obligations under the court-ordered environmental compliance plan supervised by the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Florida, as a result of the previously disclosed settlement agreement relating to the violation of probation conditions for a plea agreement entered into by Princess Cruises and the U.S. Department of Justice in 2016. We remain fully committed to satisfying those obligations. However, COVID-19 presents enormous challenges for the Company, which could result in material adverse impacts.

 

We have insurance coverage for certain liabilities, costs and expenses related to COVID-19 through our participation in Protection and Indemnity (“P&I”) clubs, including coverage for direct and incremental costs including, but not limited to, certain quarantine expenses and for certain liabilities to passengers and crew. P&I clubs are mutual indemnity associations owned by members. There is a $10 million deductible per occurrence (meaning per outbreak on a particular ship). We cannot assure you that we will receive insurance proceeds that will compensate us fully for our liabilities, costs and expenses under these policies. We have no insurance coverage for loss of revenues or earnings from our ships or other operations.

 

We have a total of 16 cruise ships scheduled to be delivered through 2025, including four during the remainder of fiscal 2020. We believe the effects of COVID-19 on the shipyards where our ships are under construction will result in a delay in ship deliveries, which we cannot predict and may be prolonged.

 

We cannot predict when any of our ships will begin to sail again and ports will reopen to our ships. Moreover, even once travel advisories and restrictions are lifted, demand for cruises may remain weak for a significant length of time and we cannot predict if and when each brand will return to pre-outbreak demand or fare pricing. In particular, our bookings may be negatively impacted by the adverse changes in the perceived or actual economic climate, including higher unemployment rates, declines in income levels and loss of personal wealth resulting from the impact of COVID-19. In addition, we cannot predict the impact COVID-19 will have on our partners, such as travel agencies, suppliers and other vendors. We may be adversely impacted as a result of the adverse impact our partners suffer.

 

We have never previously experienced a complete cessation of our cruising operations, and as a consequence, our ability to be predictive regarding the impact of such a cessation on our brands and future prospects is uncertain. In particular, we cannot predict the impact on our financial performance and our cash flows required for cash refunds of deposits as a result of the pause in our global fleet cruise operations, which may be prolonged, and the public’s concern regarding the health and safety of travel, especially by cruise ship, and related decreases in demand for travel and cruising. Moreover, our ability to attract and retain guests and crew depends, in part, upon the perception and reputation of our company and our brands and the public’s concerns regarding the health and safety of travel generally, as well as regarding the cruising industry and our ships specifically. As a result, we expect a net loss on both a U.S. GAAP and adjusted basis for the fiscal year ending November 30, 2020, and our ability to forecast our cash inflows and additional capital needs is hampered.

 

As a result of all of the foregoing, we may be required to raise additional capital and our access to and cost of financing will depend on, among other things, global economic conditions, conditions in the global financing markets, the availability of sufficient amounts of financing, our prospects and our credit ratings. As a result of COVID-19, in March 2020, Moody's and S&P Global downgraded our long-term issuer and senior unsecured debt ratings. In addition, our long-term ratings were placed on review for further downgrade by both rating agencies. Our short-term commercial paper credit ratings were also placed on review for downgrade. If our credit ratings were to be further downgraded, or general market conditions were to ascribe higher risk to our rating levels, our industry, or us, our access to capital and the cost of any debt financing will be further negatively impacted. In addition, the terms of future debt agreements could include more restrictive covenants, or require incremental collateral, which may further restrict our business operations or be unavailable due to our covenant restrictions then in effect. There is no guarantee that debt financings will be available in the future to fund our obligations, or that they will be available on terms consistent with our expectations. Additionally, the impact of COVID-19 on the financial markets is expected to adversely impact our ability to raise funds through equity financings.

 

 

It's amazing that Carnival was able to raise 6.5 Billion in debt and equity sales, despite that disclaimer.  The 6.5 Billion should give them the liquidity they need to survive until the cruise industry is able to restart.  Bottom line, I think they have to restart operations by the end of this year to be viable, which seems realistic.  Right now there are other lines, like NCL, that may not have enough liquidity to make it to the end of this year.

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8 minutes ago, travelhound said:

It's amazing that Carnival was able to raise 6.5 Billion in debt and equity sales, despite that disclaimer.  The 6.5 Billion should give them the liquidity they need to survive until the cruise industry is able to restart.  Bottom line, I think they have to restart operations by the end of this year to be viable, which seems realistic.

 

I am not sure they will be able to restart this year.  Here is an additional analysis of the situation they are facing.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/05/carnivals-struggle-to-survive-the-coronavirus-as-outbreak-wipes-out-the-cruise-industry.html

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9 minutes ago, bluesea321 said:

 

I am not sure they will be able to restart this year.  Here is an additional analysis of the situation they are facing.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/05/carnivals-struggle-to-survive-the-coronavirus-as-outbreak-wipes-out-the-cruise-industry.html

Yup, it's going to be a big challenge for all the cruise lines.  Right now, of the big 3, Carnival is probably in the best position to survive and NCL is probably the most vulnerable. 

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