Are P&O in danger of going Broke

[SHIPS CANARY]

I am becoming increasingly concerned that P&O are going broke.

1) They have not canceled cruises beyond the 11th April when it is now obvious there will be no sailing for some while.

2) They are avoiding the Refund word and pushing everybody down the FCC route. Is this because they don't have the cash to refund all the passengers.

3)  I am assuming that at this moment in time very few people booking or paying for a cruise at the moment this must be giving them big cash flow problems.

4) Nobody believed TC would go broke.

My personal concern is that if i take FCC and P&O go broke do i lose all. Does any body know the legality's of this.    

Edited March 20, 2020 by SHIPS CANARY
spelling

[Eddie99]

Yes, they are, like all cruise and many, many travel and leisure businesses

[Harry Peterson]

It's owned by Carnival, and the answer is yes. Who knows? Taking anything other than bank refunds is highly risky. Take a look at the share price.

[jh1809]

Regarding your points 1 and 2, it's understandable that they should want to minimise and delay as far as possible the refunds that they have to make. I suspect that the sheer size of Carnival means that they are better placed to ride this out than most cruise lines. At least the very low interest rates at present mean that any loans they take out won't increase too rapidly in cost. But all that said, yes they certainly could go bust.

 

One other thing that concerns me is that if too many travel firms go bust then ABTA and ATOL may not have sufficient resources to reimburse everyone.

[janny444]

Can't be  a definitive answer to this question but all the signs are there that there is a strong possibility that they will not survive. Not sure how credit card companies will view vouchers when it comes to reimbursing so I would always always take the refund and forget the temptingless FCC that is now being offered if you cancel. If P&O cancel cruise  you are then entitled to full refund but they may try to tempt you with FCCs ....be wise and take the refund.

 

[Adawn47]

1 hour ago, jh1809 said:

Regarding your points 1 and 2, it's understandable that they should want to minimise and delay as far as possible the refunds that they have to make. I suspect that the sheer size of Carnival means that they are better placed to ride this out than most cruise lines. At least the very low interest rates at present mean that any loans they take out won't increase too rapidly in cost. But all that said, yes they certainly could go bust.

 

One other thing that concerns me is that if too many travel firms go bust then ABTA and ATOL may not have sufficient resources to reimburse o

When you take into account the number of cruise ships there are at the moment and many more in the pipeline , instead of companies going to the wall the sensible option would be to reduce their fleets. It sounds sensible to me but I'm a dotty old bird so maybe not😊

Avril 

[Britboys]

14 minutes ago, Adawn47 said:

When you take into account the number of cruise ships there are at the moment and many more in the pipeline , instead of companies going to the wall the sensible option would be to reduce their fleets. It sounds sensible to me but I'm a dotty old bird so maybe not😊

Avril 

The Carnival Shareholder update (posted by Tangoqueen) suggests that new-builds are going to be delayed.

[CRUISENSNOOZE]

Share price gone up 64p so far today. Is it Carnival buying their own shares?. They get a 3 billion $ loan, spend a third on shares, push the price up and resell and clear their debt????????? Just wondering...……...

[wowzz]

6 minutes ago, CRUISENSNOOZE said:

Share price gone up 64p so far today. Is it Carnival buying their own shares?. They get a 3 billion $ loan, spend a third on shares, push the price up and resell and clear their debt????????? Just wondering...……...

Well, the number of shares traded in the UK today is minimal, and as the US exchange is not open at the moment,  I don't think share buy back is happening at the moment. Which  is not to say it won't in the future.

[Britboys]

Of course, no-one can answer "no" to this question.  What we need to keep in mind however is that this is a world-wide problem with every travel company in the same situation.  It is not going to be in any country's interest to allow all of its travel companies to go bust.

[majortom10]

P&O as an individual cruise line cannot "go bump" as they are a subsidiary of Carnival. If Carnival went bump which is always possible but will be astronomical with all the cruise lines and ships they have. If to maintain viability and protect profits Carnival as a company decide to close down a cruise line whether it be P&O or one of the many others it owns is always possible and is dependent on viability of that individual cruise line and their profit future post Coronavirus.

[Son of Anarchy]

Obviously when it comes to shares, past performance in not indicative of future performance.

 

That said, and I appreciate that PandO were not a "cruise line" at the time; but to the best of my knowledge they didn't do much "pleasure" travelling between 1939 and 1945.  And Canberra was taken off the cruise schedule for several months in 1982.  Similar situation re Cunard.

 

I would like to think that they retain that sort of stoic resiliance in these times.  But of course there is always paragraph 1.

[madmacs]

I don't think the US government will let Carnival or Royal Caribbean go bust. They are talking about spending $1trillion to help the economic consequences and I suspect they would underwrite the loan which carnival took out. My next cruise booked with the carnival brand is with Princess in April 2021, Celebrity in October 2020. As  shareholder who paid £3000 for my 100 shares I hope as well that Carnival does not go bust but we will see.

[Harry Peterson]

26 minutes ago, madmacs said:

I don't think the US government will let Carnival or Royal Caribbean go bust. They are talking about spending $1trillion to help the economic consequences and I suspect they would underwrite the loan which carnival took out. My next cruise booked with the carnival brand is with Princess in April 2021, Celebrity in October 2020. As  shareholder who paid £3000 for my 100 shares I hope as well that Carnival does not go bust but we will see.

If governments bail out companies, I'm pretty sure it will be done in such a way that the shareholders don't benefit - and quite right too.  And I say that as a Carnival shareholder.  Branson's Virgin, for example - why should the taxpayer pay to get Richard Branson off the hook - particularly with his record?

[mickrory]

In answer to the original question it depends how long this Covid19 bug continues. Bozo reckons we'll break the back of it in 12 weeks, I have serious doubts. If Carnival doesn't get its fleet sailing again this calendar year I think it will go bust.

[davecttr]

18 minutes ago, mickrory said:

In answer to the original question it depends how long this Covid19 bug continues. Bozo reckons we'll break the back of it in 12 weeks, I have serious doubts. If Carnival doesn't get its fleet sailing again this calendar year I think it will go bust.

The SAGE advice published today has measures for at least a year and severe ones for at least half that time. thing is I can no longer find the article on the BBC news site

 

found it here

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51977802

Edited March 20, 2020 by davecttr

[Captain_Morgan]

28 minutes ago, Harry Peterson said:

If governments bail out companies, I'm pretty sure it will be done in such a way that the shareholders don't benefit - and quite right too.  And I say that as a Carnival shareholder.  Branson's Virgin, for example - why should the taxpayer pay to get Richard Branson off the hook - particularly with his record?

 

Virgin is actually financed by a private equity firm (Bain Capital) and Branson is just the face of the enterprise...that said, they are building the rest of their ships in Italy, which is highly unlikely to be done on time if at all...

[Harry Peterson]

11 minutes ago, Captain_Morgan said:

 

Virgin is actually financed by a private equity firm (Bain Capital) and Branson is just the face of the enterprise...that said, they are building the rest of their ships in Italy, which is highly unlikely to be done on time if at all...

I'm thinking more in terms of the directly owned ventures such as Virgin Air.

[jh1809]

6 hours ago, Adawn47 said:

When you take into account the number of cruise ships there are at the moment and many more in the pipeline , instead of companies going to the wall the sensible option would be to reduce their fleets. It sounds sensible to me but I'm a dotty old bird so maybe not😊

Avril 

But in the current situation, who is going to want to buy the ships that the cruise lines want to sell?

[Son of Anarchy]

8 minutes ago, jh1809 said:

But in the current situation, who is going to want to buy the ships that the cruise lines want to sell?

 

They'll be so cheap you'll be able to get one for the price of a second hand Kia!

[Denarius]

29 minutes ago, Son of Anarchy said:

 

They'll be so cheap you'll be able to get one for the price of a second hand Kia!

Which would only be of any interest if you want to buy one.

But looking at the wider picture, in recent years the cruising market has grown and grown. Big players like Carnival and RCI have ordered more and ever bigger ships. But now for totally unforseen reasons cruising has come to a temporary halt. It will start again eventually, but whether it will ever regain its previous size or how long it will take to do so is anyone's guess. But the aforesaid companies have already ordered new ships in anticipation of continued expansion, and will either have to take delivery of ships they may no longer need or cancel them and pay cancellation penalties; they are truly between a rock and a hard place. Smaller operators like Fred Olsen however, who tend not to go for new builds but instead buy second hand ships from the bigger operators will not have the same problem. Indeed, they may well find themselves in a buyers market as the bigger operators try to reduce capacity; but only if they are confident enough to buy and increase theirs.

[Adawn47]

2 hours ago, jh1809 said:

But in the current situation, who is going to want to buy the ships that the cruise lines want to sell?

I didn't mean to sell them. If all cruise companies reduce their fleets there will no-one to buy them. Mothball them until the cruise industry recovers. 

Avril 

[AndyMichelle]

3 minutes ago, Adawn47 said:

I didn't mean to sell them. If all cruise companies reduce their fleets there will no-one to buy them. Mothball them until the cruise industry recovers. 

Avril 

If they are the price of a second hand Kia, I will have one... 

Not sure how the neighbours would feel about Oceana being parked in my visitors bay though😊

Andy 

[pete14]

8 minutes ago, AndyMichelle said:

If they are the price of a second hand Kia, I will have one... 

Not sure how the neighbours would feel about Oceana being parked in my visitors bay though😊

Andy 

You could temporarily disguise her as a caravan although you may have a problem towing her behind your car. Imagine the traffic jams you could cause!😊😉

[Britboys]

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