No cruising until a vaccine?

[Mallefiscent]

7 hours ago, Ocean Boy said:

How I eat and exercise the 1-2 weeks a year that I cruise has little resemblance to the other 50-51 weeks of the year.

 

Lol  The amount of chocolate I have consumed in the last two days has little resemblance to the other 363 days of the year - well except maybe on Valentine's Day also.   Make that the other 362 days of the year.  😛

[Mallefiscent]

8 hours ago, rtazz17 said:

Daily deaths from motor vehicles in America alone are over 100 a day. Every day of the year,and every year. 35,000 a year. The covid daily fatality rate will never out pace motor vehicle death rate. If it does it wont be for very long. The “regular flu” in a bad year doesnt out pace motor vehicle accident death rate. 
 

what kills the most people? Poor diet. Americans eat like crap and pay the price. Oh and dont exercise(most).. those are things we are in control of but most could care less about. Pretty evident on a cruise isnt it?

 

Poor diet does cause a lot of problems.  It doesn't help that bad food costs less than healthy food.  

[UnorigionalName]

 

8 hours ago, rtazz17 said:

Daily deaths from motor vehicles in America alone are over 100 a day. Every day of the year,and every year. 35,000 a year. The covid daily fatality rate will never out pace motor vehicle death rate. If it does it wont be for very long. The “regular flu” in a bad year doesnt out pace motor vehicle accident death rate. 
 

what kills the most people? Poor diet. Americans eat like crap and pay the price. Oh and dont exercise(most).. those are things we are in control of but most could care less about. Pretty evident on a cruise isnt it?

 

new CDC data.  3/25 deaths = 224.  annualized that would be about as deadly as diabetes, and beating out influenza, kidney disease, and suicides to be #8 leading cause of death.  And no signs of slowing.

 

14 minutes ago, Mallefiscent said:

 

Not all tests are PCR. 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/testing.html

 

Labcorp does have PCR testing, and they even say that a negative test does not preclude having Covid 19

https://www.fda.gov/media/136151/download

 

I agree that most Americans want to do the right thing.   People don't always agree what the right thing is though. 

 

all current us tests are PCR.  The CDC is developing serology test for epidemiology purposes, not for patient care.

 

Of course no test is 100%, but it is a lot more accurate than those viral partical testing. 

 

edit: I take it you don't know anyone who is in the hospital yet for COVID?  Each of these numbers is not a statistic.  It is a person.  Shouldn't we try to preserve as many as possible?

Edited March 26, 2020 by UnorigionalName

[Mallefiscent]

54 minutes ago, UnorigionalName said:

 

 

new CDC data.  3/25 deaths = 224.  annualized that would be about as deadly as diabetes, and beating out influenza, kidney disease, and suicides to be #8 leading cause of death.  And no signs of slowing.

 

 

all current us tests are PCR.  The CDC is developing serology test for epidemiology purposes, not for patient care.

 

Of course no test is 100%, but it is a lot more accurate than those viral partical testing. 

 

edit: I take it you don't know anyone who is in the hospital yet for COVID?  Each of these numbers is not a statistic.  It is a person.  Shouldn't we try to preserve as many as possible?

 

That CDC test is actually for respiratory samples. 

 

All of our patients have tested negative for COVID so far.  And yes, each one is a person, but how many will die if we enter another depression?  How many won't be able to afford their medications due to a lack of health insurance and die?  How many will die from increased domestic violence or increased crime?  How many will die from starvation?  Those types of things are harder to quantify, but they are still valid points.   There has to be a balance somewhere. 

 

I have a friend who is a single mom of a type 1 diabetic daughter.   I don't go visit her due to possible contamination.  At the same time, if my friend loses her job, how will she afford her daughter's insulin? I have watched a father sit by his daughter's bedside in anguish, because she was in diabetic ketoacidosis due to the fact that he couldn't afford her insulin.  They had tried to ration it, but it didn't work. 

 

Do I seem heartless?  Maybe. I am pretty hardened by all my years in the ER.  I have seen many people lose parents and siblings.  It is heartbreaking, and I cry every time.  It is nothing like a parent who loses a child though.  I remember the face of every single child I have lost, and I would be willing to risk my life with COVID 19 so that somone else can afford to take care of their child.  

Edited March 26, 2020 by Mallefiscent

[A&L_Ont]

On 3/24/2020 at 12:02 PM, flyguyjake said:

America today is NOT the America of the 50s. This is a whole new level of transmission. Listen to Gov Cuomo & Fauci. They are the ones presenting facts in a reasonable and rational way. They give cold hard facts. Either side can spin it all they want. Facts ARE Facts. Being prepared, overly cautious even, will save thousands of lives in the US. Every life should matter, regardless of health condition or age.

 

 

Could not have said it better.

 

On 3/24/2020 at 12:09 PM, flyguyjake said:

Certainly you are joking. No one is complaining about people sitting in waiting rooms. People are dying laying on floors in Italy & Spain. Gov Cuomo isn't complaining about wait times in hospital lobbies, he screaming from the room tops he needs ventilators. The "system" will be overwhelmed because of the flood of seriously sick people. Just look at China, Spain & Italy. Testing is the key, which we are STILL FAILING at in most states. Every Governor better watch and learn from Cuomo to prevent their state from turning into a Spain or Italy situation.

 

Neighbouring states and their residents need to think about this. 

 

9 hours ago, Mallefiscent said:

 

Lol  The amount of chocolate I have consumed in the last two days has little resemblance to the other 363 days of the year - well except maybe on Valentine's Day also.   Make that the other 362 days of the year.  😛

 

And this is the nice laugh I needed.  We normally stock up on "storm chips".  Now I call them COVID Chips. We also have ice cream.😉

[SRF]

On 3/22/2020 at 6:32 PM, Hoopster95 said:

 

Agreed.... con't be done. Infections are going to happen everywhere.

 

https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

So far, the new coronavirus has led to more than 220,000 illnesses and more than 9,300 deaths worldwide. But that's nothing compared with the flu, also called influenza. In the U.S. alone, the flu has caused an estimated 36 million illnesses, 370,000 hospitalizations and 22,000 deaths this season, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). 

 

"nothing compared to the flu"? Seriously???

Flu:  36 million / 22,000 deaths = .06% mortality rate   (0.6 out of every 1000 people)

COVID19:  220,000 illnesses / 9,300 deaths = 4.2% mortality rate (42 out of every 1000 people)

 

Again, direct CDC facts, not fiction.

So let's get 1 million Americans tested... at 4.2% mortality means 42,000 people.

 

You are wrong.

 

Because the only cases that are being counted in most instances are those that are sick enough to seek medical attention.

 

NO ONE knows how many cases there are.  There could easily be 100x or more cases that those counted.

 

Many people have likely been infected, and had mild symptoms, and never reported.

 

And that is one issue with the testing.  AFAIK, the tests are for active infections.  If you had it, your immune system responded and took care of it, you will test negative.

[nbsjcruiser]

1 hour ago, SRF said:

 

You are wrong.

 

Because the only cases that are being counted in most instances are those that are sick enough to seek medical attention.

 

NO ONE knows how many cases there are.  There could easily be 100x or more cases that those counted.

 

Many people have likely been infected, and had mild symptoms, and never reported.

Very true. The Mathematical models do provide a somewhat accurate way of assessing the number of infected people based on the number of deaths. Currently the mortality rate is estimated at 0.8% approximately. That means 1 in 125 people who get the disease die from it.

 

Currently in the US about 1000 have died from it but it takes about 24 days for a person to get it, develop symptoms, get to the hospital, go to the ICU and (sadly) die from it. What this tells us is that about 24 days ago there must have been somewhere around 125,000 infected Americans since 0.8% of 100,000 is about 1000.

 

This guy does a much better job explaining than I:

 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hell-coming-mathematical-proof-185019616.html?soc_src=community&soc_trk=fb

 

The real worrisome thing is, this is doubling every 3 days. Every 3 days we get twice the number of infected people which is why you hear so much information about the need to flatten the curve so that the rate of increase is more logarithmic than exponential. Unfortunately its too late for that. Its definitely an exponential rate of increase now. 

[Mallefiscent]

13 hours ago, irzero said:

I could be wrong but I think the antibody test is going to reveal a silent infection which has already spread far wider than anyone knows which will make a mockery of the scientists and the damage they have done to the economy.

Sent from my SM-N975F using Tapatalk
 

This wouldn't surprise me.  Back in December/January, there was a viral respiratory infection with the covid symptoms that swept through here, but it wasn't the flu.  I had a fever for a few days but coughed for about 2 months.  A friend of mine was saying the same thing happened in North Dakota along with diarrhea.  Now it has come out that diarrhea is one of the symptoms. 

 

I would like to go get tested for antibodies just to see if I did have it, but it isn't worth taking the test away from someone who really needs it right now. 

Edited March 26, 2020 by Mallefiscent

[Ocean Boy]

1 hour ago, Mallefiscent said:

This wouldn't surprise me.  Back in December/January, there was a viral respiratory infection with the covid symptoms that swept through here, but it wasn't the flu.  I had a fever for a few days but coughed for about 2 months.  A friend of mine was saying the same thing happened in North Dakota along with diarrhea.  Now it has come out that diarrhea is one of the symptoms. 

 

I would like to go get tested for antibodies just to see if I did have it, but it isn't worth taking the test away from someone who really needs it right now. 

I have been saying for weeks now I was seeing patients in Oct-Nov who I would have sworn had the flu but swabs were coming back negative and the cough was lasting weeks. It was a prolonged recovery compared to the flu. I am very suspicious it was Corona coming through here. And I suspect that we may have more immunity in this town and State now than what is anticipated. It is going to be very interesting to see what the next couple of weeks brings here in RI.

 

One thing is for sure, If my suspicions are correct and things stay mild around here, the politicians will take credit for it and declare it was because they shut everything down. If things get bad then the politicians will blame residents for not following their orders.

[A&L_Ont]

2 minutes ago, Ocean Boy said:

One thing is for sure, If my suspicions are correct and things stay mild around here, tbe polititians will take credit for it and declare it was because they shut everything down. If things get bad then the politicians will blame residents for not following their orders.

It’s always the way. 

[Ourusualbeach]

2 minutes ago, Ocean Boy said:

I have been saying for weeks now I was seeing patients in Oct-Nov who I would have sworn had the flu but swabs were coming back negative and the cough was lasting weeks. It was a prolonged recovery compared to the flu. I am very suspicious it was Corona coming through here. And I suspect that we may have more immunity in this town and State now than what is anticipated. It is going to be very interesting to see what the next couple of weeks brings here in RI.

 

One thing is for sure, If my suspicions are correct and things stay mild around here, the politicians will take credit for it and declare it was because they shut everything down. If things get bad then the politicians will blame residents for not following their orders.

My daughter caught what you are describing the first week of January when she returned Bach yo University after the Holiday Break when many students would have returned to their overseas homes for the holidays.  She came home one weekend because she was feeling so sick and gave it to the rest of us.  Stuck with us for a month then just like that it was gone. I share your beliefs. 

[bobmacliberty]

My wife had a nasty dry cough back then.  The Minute Clinic treated it as Bronchitis.  Took several weeks to go away.  Is Bronchitis diagnosed with lab tests or by symptoms?  She walked away from the appointment with a prescription so I'm guessing the later.

[Ocean Boy]

23 minutes ago, bobmacliberty said:

My wife had a nasty dry cough back then.  The Minute Clinic treated it as Bronchitis.  Took several weeks to go away.  Is Bronchitis diagnosed with lab tests or by symptoms?  She walked away from the appointment with a prescription so I'm guessing the later.

It is diagnosed by symptoms. The question is whether it is bacterial or viral in origin. Antibiorics are of no use if viral. If it took several weeks for it to go away it was most likely viral and why the prescription, which I assume was an antibiotic?, did not work.

[A&L_Ont]

23 minutes ago, Ocean Boy said:

It is diagnosed by symptoms. The question is whether it is bacterial or viral in origin. Antibiorics are of no use if viral. If it took several weeks for it to go away it was most likely viral and why the prescription, which I assume was an antibiotic?, did not work.

 

I had a dry cough, post nasal drip etc.. last September for almost weeks.  Four days before we were to leave for our cruise (3 weeks in) I went to our local small town hospital, mainly because Lisa told me to go.  They did the once over with me.  When I left the doctor said it was viral.  She said if it is still continuing when I returned, to come back and and they would get me a puffer.  

 

Needless to say when I returned I was feeling better after a month had passed.

[SRF]

21 hours ago, nbsjcruiser said:

Very true. The Mathematical models do provide a somewhat accurate way of assessing the number of infected people based on the number of deaths. Currently the mortality rate is estimated at 0.8% approximately. That means 1 in 125 people who get the disease die from it.

 

Currently in the US about 1000 have died from it but it takes about 24 days for a person to get it, develop symptoms, get to the hospital, go to the ICU and (sadly) die from it. What this tells us is that about 24 days ago there must have been somewhere around 125,000 infected Americans since 0.8% of 100,000 is about 1000.

 

This guy does a much better job explaining than I:

 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hell-coming-mathematical-proof-185019616.html?soc_src=community&soc_trk=fb

 

The real worrisome thing is, this is doubling every 3 days. Every 3 days we get twice the number of infected people which is why you hear so much information about the need to flatten the curve so that the rate of increase is more logarithmic than exponential. Unfortunately its too late for that. Its definitely an exponential rate of increase now. 

 

The problem is, NO ONE knows what the actual mortality rate is.  Because no one know how many people have had it.

 

I have seen estimates from 10x to 300x the reported cases.

 

Until there is widespread testing, of a whole group of people, without selecting for sick people, we really don't know.

[TeeRick]

On 3/25/2020 at 3:17 PM, UnorigionalName said:

 

We want to prevent: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/coronavirus-georgia-mom-who-worked-hospital-found-dead-home-her-n1168386

 

The testing in US is all PCR based, not antigen based, not immunoglobulin based.  It is highly sensitive and specific.

 

The data out of China showed relatively few COVID patients developed bacterial superinfections, not like flu.

 

If we had tested earlier we could have been in containment phase.  I think it's foolish for lightly hit states to not try containment phase now. look at singapore and southern sk, and hk, and taiwan.  first positive case months ago and they are still able to live.

 

If we tested more broadly now, we could know if we need to go under severe lockdowns or if we can relax some areas. 

 

edit: I also believe by and large americans are responsible and many want to do the right thing.  with people with few symptoms being positive, I think a vast majority would self quarantine and try to prevent spread to others.  Any thing that decreases the R0 by any amount should be pursued, as that will ultimately decrease the amount of people infected, shorten the time till the peak, and save lives.

You are correct about the early testing.  But the test kits (either PCR or Antibody) were in very short supply only a few weeks ago when it could have perhaps made a difference.  

[bobmacliberty]

9 hours ago, Ocean Boy said:

It is diagnosed by symptoms. The question is whether it is bacterial or viral in origin. Antibiorics are of no use if viral. If it took several weeks for it to go away it was most likely viral and why the prescription, which I assume was an antibiotic?, did not work.

 

You are correct Sir!  My wife said that the person at the clinic (RN? PA?) told her that she was giving her antibiotics, but it may be viral and therefore the antibiotics may not work.  They didn't.

[cruisinfanatic]

23 hours ago, Ocean Boy said:

I have been saying for weeks now I was seeing patients in Oct-Nov who I would have sworn had the flu but swabs were coming back negative and the cough was lasting weeks. It was a prolonged recovery compared to the flu. I am very suspicious it was Corona coming through here. And I suspect that we may have more immunity in this town and State now than what is anticipated. It is going to be very interesting to see what the next couple of weeks brings here in RI.

 

One thing is for sure, If my suspicions are correct and things stay mild around here, the politicians will take credit for it and declare it was because they shut everything down. If things get bad then the politicians will blame residents for not following their orders.

Impossible it was Corona. The way it spreads and kills, RI would have been the epicenter first, not China

[Ocean Boy]

18 minutes ago, cruisinfanatic said:

Impossible it was Corona. The way it spreads and kills, RI would have been the epicenter first, not China

OK.🙄😒

[MADflyer]

29 minutes ago, Iamcruzin said:

Yikes.... just looked at the US map. Way more Red states than there should be.

Thanks for the link.

Yes, there are definitely way too many red states on that map. Florida, one of them, allowed spring breakers to party while the rest of the country was locking down.

 

This map of the dispersion of the returning spring breakers correlates well with that map showing all that red. 

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8160759/Cell-phone-data-reveals-Spring-Break-covidiots-traveled-flooding-beaches.html

[UnorigionalName]

19 minutes ago, MADflyer said:

Yes, there are definitely way too many red states on that map. Florida, one of them, allowed spring breakers to party while the rest of the country was locking down.

 

This map of the dispersion of the returning spring breakers correlates well with that map showing all that red. 

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8160759/Cell-phone-data-reveals-Spring-Break-covidiots-traveled-flooding-beaches.html

 

i mean, both are basically just population heatmaps... correlation and causation and all that.

 

Basically any map of any statistic in the us looks like that

[MADflyer]

10 minutes ago, UnorigionalName said:

 

i mean, both are basically just population heatmaps... correlation and causation and all that.

 

Basically any map of any statistic in the us looks like that

You have to read the articles to understand both maps. They are not heat maps. 

 

The quoted article shows a map of the 100,000 Coronavirus cases and then in the second article it shows the cell phone pings from one beach in Ft. Lauderdale and where they returned to in the United States. 

 

There is a video in the second article that shows the dispersion of the spring breakers. 

 

After this is all over, everything will be documented by various tech companies, including the thermometer company that tracks fevers and stores date on the users of digital thermometers. There will be a lot of data to prove everything that happened with the spread of this virus. 

Edited March 27, 2020 by MADflyer

[Judyrem]

On 3/26/2020 at 3:56 AM, irzero said:

There is a serious problem with this disease. The world is guessing who has had it and who doesnt. The tests are paramount and global theory is abound that it's been running wild far longer than people think.

My GF has every symptom but cant get a test in the UK unless hospitalized. I'm 100% fine and there is no way I could not have caught it if I wasnt immune. I've taken no precautions what so ever.

If 1 million were infected in the uk that means I'd need to know only 1 person out of 68 in my extended network. Within a week or so I'm sure I'll know that 4 or 5 of my own family have had it which means that the number of infected must be in the 10s of millions over the last 3 months. Nobody I know has been hospitalized and nobody I know knows anyone hospitalized.

I could be wrong but I think the antibody test is going to reveal a silent infection which has already spread far wider than anyone knows which will make a mockery of the scientists and the damage they have done to the economy.

Sent from my SM-N975F using Tapatalk
 

Agree.

[Hoopster95]

1 hour ago, young_ens said:

Milestone reached: crossed 100,000 confirmed cases!    Nice interactive site if you're interested:

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

 

Thx for this link.

Here's a really good easy-to-read chart I discovered recently

https://ncov2019.live/data

[sfaaa]

1 hour ago, young_ens said:

With Trump, no surprise there!   I was amused with his militarize the border idea.....  Like any Canadian would cross the border now!  

 

I am sure a lot of law breakers, criminals and up to no good terrorists would. What makes you think they won't?