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Post Corona, will every ship still sail?


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4 hours ago, ARandomTraveler said:


 

I had the option to take cash (my cruise was refundable and I also have cancel for any reason insurance) and I took the cash. Didn’t even contemplate taking an FCC, and I’ll be using the insurance for my airfare if the airline doesn’t cancel my flight and give me all my money back first.

May I ask which Insurance company you used for "cancel for any reason" policy?

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6 hours ago, JAMESCC said:

I do not believe that is correct. This overrode the non-refundable/refundable. I believe no matter what you chose you can get your money when your cruise is cancelled.

When your cruise is cancelled, yes, but there are a lot of people with cruises outside the mid-April cancellations who don’t want to go and are lucky because RC is waiving the Non-refundable deposit rule as long as people rebook instead of cancel. 

Edited by ARandomTraveler
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5 hours ago, mook1525 said:

May I ask which Insurance company you used for "cancel for any reason" policy?

It’s from a company called iTravel Insured and the policy is called Travel LX. Due to coronavirus, they’ve stopped offering this policy but I’m really happy with it. It comes with some pretty robust inclusions that allow me money back for a lot of stuff and the claims process is really easy to do online (though their phone “on hold” times are long and they took over a week to reply to an email). 
 

I covered airfare for 2 people to Japan for our land trip, then airfare to Singapore for another land trip, plus the cruise that we were supposed to take at the end of our trip, and it only cost me $251. The regular insurance without the cancel for any reason clause was only $100 cheaper. Totally worth the extra money because the peace of mind that I have right now is invaluable, even though my flight may get cancelled and I won’t need to use the insurance, I don’t feel like I wasted my money at all, and will never travel without buying a cancel-for-any-reason policy again. This is something I learned about during hurricane Maria when people weren’t as lucky as they are now with getting to rebook or getting money back. I highly recommend! 
 

The caveat Is you can’t buy this type of trip insurance if you live in New York because of some law there about what constitutes an insurable item (it has to be something unforeseen and “any reason you want” is not unforeseen), and I’m not sure if you can buy it if you’re not a US citizen. It’s also more expensive if one or both of the travelers are older (it seems to be over 60 but I’m not really sure).

Edited by ARandomTraveler
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On 3/29/2020 at 6:08 PM, zekekelso said:

The following is just my opinion. Most of you will probably disagree. I sincerely hope you are right and I am wrong. I'm not looking to argue with anyone, but feel free to post a simple "you're an idiot" reply.

 

The cruise industry as we know it is dead. The cruise companies will not survive. Worse, most of the ancillary companies that support the cruise industry will not survive. Travel insurance, food suppliers, etc. are all going to be gone. The industry has generated a ton of bad will, so government and ports will treat the industry differently. Yes, there will be cruises, but the industry will be unrecognizable. And I can't even speculate as to what it will be. Hopefully, with time, it will become something even better than it was. But in the sort term, it's going to be extremely ugly. 

   Excellent, thoughtful post. Sorry you were hit with rude replies.

    Of course the cruise industry generated bad will. Their last rounds of sailings were incredibly ill-advised, and even after seeing the horror show of the Grand they made no detailed contingency plans for "what precisely do we do if this happens on our next sailing?" 
    There are going to be a LOT of people watching the Veendam fiasco play out. Ruby shapes up as another mess.

     The mass market will forget an occasional azipod stranding or even a rare mid-ocean fire. But this series of calamities is going to hurt cruise lines horribly for a long, long time to come.
 

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1 hour ago, John&LaLa said:

Royal will keep the big girls running. They generate more revenue per passenger. They need that.

 

Just my opinion

Totally agree. It will be 1) Oasis 2) Quantum 3) Freedom class ships, if I had to guess. Then, slowly bringing the rest of their ships online.  Even so though, not sure how long if will be before the ships are sailing 100%+ full. I have a feeling all the cruise lines will have a difficult time filling the ships when they all start to come back at the same places, at the same time. 

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Even if some of the ships come back, how much of the crew/activities/entertainment/perks/etc. will be cut or reduced?  I can't imagine a cruise is going to be as enjoyable of an experience as it used to be.  Would they even allow theater shows, for instance , for fear of everyone being close to each other?  Would there still be a buffet (I imagine they would man it with servers like HAL does).  I know Royal has been around for 50 years, but I think this is a life changing event for the cruise lines.  I can't imagine more remote places are going to be eager to accept American tourists, even if they depend on them for their economy...

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As all ships have schedules and booked guests they will all come back to their original itineraries if ports and countries allow it and if Royal ist still in business at that time. All crew is waiting to come back as they rely on the jobs.

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3 hours ago, John&LaLa said:

Royal will keep the big girls running. They generate more revenue per passenger. They need that.

 

Just my opinion

I have the same opinion and I think that the smaller ships with longer cruises will be the last to come back.

 

 

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23 hours ago, ARandomTraveler said:

People aren’t taking their money out because their money was non-refundable and they had no choice. If people had the choice, I think the majority would take their cash and use it for another cruise when they’re ready rather than accept an FCC with an expiration date that isn’t really that far away. 
 

I had the option to take cash (my cruise was refundable and I also have cancel for any reason insurance) and I took the cash. Didn’t even contemplate taking an FCC, and I’ll be using the insurance for my airfare if the airline doesn’t cancel my flight and give me all my money back first.

 

That's why they have vanilla and chocolate.  I guess I must be in the minority in your opinion, along with multiple families that are cruising with me to Bermuda at the end of June.  Could have chosen to not make final payment and gotten 100% of our deposit money back, but we went ahead and paid the cruise off knowing that we will get a 125% FCC if and when RCI cancels our cruise at the end of June to Bermuda.  We booked it over 15 months out and rolling it over to the same time parameters for next year will cost us more money, but that increase in cost will be covered by the 25% upgrade that the FCC gives us in our base cruise cost.  If we just went and cancelled, it would have put the 500 in deposit money in my pocket, but the same cruise would cost me more next year.  By waiting and accepting the FCC when the time comes saves me money in the long run. 

 

So, even though you did not even contemplate taking the FCC because you wanted your money back and was thinking about short term gains and losses, I was thinking about the long game and I'll take the FCC if and when RCI cancels our June cruise.

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8 minutes ago, SNJCruisers said:

 

So, even though you did not even contemplate taking the FCC because you wanted your money back and was thinking about short term gains and losses, I was thinking about the long game and I'll take the FCC if and when RCI cancels our June cruise.

It wasn’t about gains and losses of money as much as it was about loss of flexibility over my time and future vacation plans. 25% of our cruise for 2 wasn’t that much money and definitely not worth being forced to cruise within a 1 year time frame. My daughter goes off to college in the fall and already has a really big internship lined up for next summer, so the chances of us finding time that aligns for us to redo this trip within the year aren’t good. 
 

Sure, I want to maximize the money I’ll get refunded, given that I’ve pretty much written off the trip, but that wasn’t my main concern. My main concern Is the flexibility over my future plans. If for some reason this whole coronavirus thing completely turns around by the end of May, and our flights haven’t been cancelled and there’s a vaccine or something that makes me feel better about spending a few weeks in Asia, then I’ll just pay the extra money to rebook the cruise. But I’m not rolling the dice on that in return for a measly few hundred dollars I would have gotten from an extra 25% credit. My flexibility and control over my time is worth way more than that to me. 

Edited by ARandomTraveler
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4 minutes ago, ARandomTraveler said:

It wasn’t about gains and losses of money as much as it was about loss of flexibility over my time and future vacation plans. 25% of our cruise for 2 wasn’t that much money and definitely not worth being forced to cruise within a 1 year time frame.

The FCC's are good through December of 21, so that would be a 18 month choice, not a 1 year time frame.  And once again, everyone's decisions are based on their own situation, so when you made the assumption that the majority of people would take the cash....well, you know the old saying about assuming. And besides, you're right, it truly is a measly few hundred dollars if you can afford to spend a few weeks vacationing in Asia.

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We have 4 cruises booked, the one in September have been paid in full for a long time. We desided to pay the other 3 in full last week. By doing that our TA could move the payment to Royal. If our TA would go out of business, we still would have our cruises payed and no money lost.

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1 minute ago, Extra Kim said:

We have 4 cruises booked, the one in September have been paid in full for a long time. We desided to pay the other 3 in full last week. By doing that our TA could move the payment to Royal. If our TA would go out of business, we still would have our cruises payed and no money lost.

Seems to me that if your TA went out of business RCI would just take over the booking and you could have paid them directly when the time came.

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On 3/29/2020 at 6:08 PM, zekekelso said:

The following is just my opinion. Most of you will probably disagree. I sincerely hope you are right and I am wrong. I'm not looking to argue with anyone, but feel free to post a simple "you're an idiot" reply.

 

The cruise industry as we know it is dead. The cruise companies will not survive. Worse, most of the ancillary companies that support the cruise industry will not survive. Travel insurance, food suppliers, etc. are all going to be gone. The industry has generated a ton of bad will, so government and ports will treat the industry differently. Yes, there will be cruises, but the industry will be unrecognizable. And I can't even speculate as to what it will be. Hopefully, with time, it will become something even better than it was. But in the sort term, it's going to be extremely ugly. 

The cruise companies will mostly survive.  Some may have to go into chapter 7 bankruptcies, which reorganizes their debt among other things.  They will come out the other end as a going concern.  A few may go into chapter 11 which means liquidation.

 

The thing to keep in mind is that they have large fixed assets that can't be easily re-purposed.  It is not like a manufacturer that sell off their existing inventory, machinery, client list and if they own the building(s).

 

As "Travel insurance, food suppliers, etc."  They do not only cater to the cruise industry.  Travel insurance companies insure non-cruise trips.  Food suppliers have restaurants, institutional feeders, schools etc.  Some of them have already reached out grocery stores among others.  Will some  be reduced is size, go out of business or be absorbed by competitors, probably but, not every single one will disappear.

 

I am not sure about "bad will".  Did the airline create bad will even though they continued to transport passengers?  Did restaurants create bad will for continuing to keep their dining rooms open?  If anything the ports have created bad will for not allowing the ships to dock to disembark passengers using certain protocols.

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2 hours ago, Ocean Boy said:

Seems to me that if your TA went out of business RCI would just take over the booking and you could have paid them directly when the time came.

No, since we had paid $2300 to the TA. Most of it in gift cards. Normaly in Sweden you pay to the TA and they will pay the cruise line when the final payment day comes.

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8 minutes ago, Extra Kim said:

No, since we had paid $2300 to the TA. Most of it in gift cards. Normaly in Sweden you pay to the TA and they will pay the cruise line when the final payment day comes.

Sorry, I didn't realize your location.

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On 3/29/2020 at 6:08 PM, zekekelso said:

The cruise industry as we know it is dead.

 

The industry has generated a ton of bad will, so government and ports will treat the industry differently. 

 

Totally agree!  This economic hit is unsurvivable. There will be widespread bankruptcies and reorganizations.

 

As for bad will, they generated it by the way they evolved.  A mass market cruise ship is now the poster child for infection spread.  They continually engineered their ships and industry to get maximum return, which always meant more people, bigger crowds....  They basically eliminated the tolerance for any "error".  And without fundamentally rethinking how these ships operate, they're just not going to be accepted.  This isn't going to just disappear.  It will have periods and regional presences that will make being on a ship less desirable for a long time.

 

Most people on these forums are not casual cruisers, but cruising fanatics. We are not really representative of their actual target market. Most of their target market is going to have little to no desire to be on a ship as they have operated up until now.

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2 minutes ago, leisuretraveler223 said:

 

As for bad will, they generated it by the way they evolved.  A mass market cruise ship is now the poster child for infection spread.  They continually engineered their ships and industry to get maximum return, which always meant more people, bigger crowds....  They basically eliminated the tolerance for any "error".  And without fundamentally rethinking how these ships operate, they're just not going to be accepted.  This isn't going to just disappear.  It will have periods and regional presences that will make being on a ship less desirable for a long time.

 

Most people on these forums are not casual cruisers, but cruising fanatics. We are not really representative of their actual target market. Most of their target market is going to have little to no desire to be on a ship as they have operated up until now.

That pretty much covers it. I agree. People I know have asked me if I plan to ever cruise again and when I say yes they respond with some sort of disbelief.

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4 minutes ago, leisuretraveler223 said:

 

Totally agree!  This economic hit is unsurvivable. There will be widespread bankruptcies and reorganizations.

 

As for bad will, they generated it by the way they evolved.  A mass market cruise ship is now the poster child for infection spread.  They continually engineered their ships and industry to get maximum return, which always meant more people, bigger crowds....  They basically eliminated the tolerance for any "error".  And without fundamentally rethinking how these ships operate, they're just not going to be accepted.  This isn't going to just disappear.  It will have periods and regional presences that will make being on a ship less desirable for a long time.

 

Most people on these forums are not casual cruisers, but cruising fanatics. We are not really representative of their actual target market. Most of their target market is going to have little to no desire to be on a ship as they have operated up until now.

Yet cruise bookings for 2021 are up 9% from last year? What the hell does that tell you people? The demand is still there. This is a very resilient industry. I think the people around here absolutely nuts with pessimism. Its actually quite sad. 

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2 minutes ago, JAMESCC said:

Yet cruise bookings for 2021 are up 9% from last year? What the hell does that tell you people? The demand is still there. This is a very resilient industry. I think the people around here absolutely nuts with pessimism. Its actually quite sad. 

 

Is that new demand?  It tells me that people are canceling 2020 cruises and rebooking.  

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On 3/31/2020 at 11:46 AM, gatour said:

The cruise companies will mostly survive.  Some may have to go into chapter 7 bankruptcies, which reorganizes their debt among other things.  They will come out the other end as a going concern.  A few may go into chapter 11 which means liquidation.

 

The thing to keep in mind is that they have large fixed assets that can't be easily re-purposed.  It is not like a manufacturer that sell off their existing inventory, machinery, client list and if they own the building(s).

 

As "Travel insurance, food suppliers, etc."  They do not only cater to the cruise industry.  Travel insurance companies insure non-cruise trips.  Food suppliers have restaurants, institutional feeders, schools etc.  Some of them have already reached out grocery stores among others.  Will some  be reduced is size, go out of business or be absorbed by competitors, probably but, not every single one will disappear.

 

I am not sure about "bad will".  Did the airline create bad will even though they continued to transport passengers?  Did restaurants create bad will for continuing to keep their dining rooms open?  If anything the ports have created bad will for not allowing the ships to dock to disembark passengers using certain protocols.

FYI Chapter 7 is liquidation, 11 is reorganization.

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8 minutes ago, Ocean Boy said:

That pretty much covers it. I agree. People I know have asked me if I plan to ever cruise again and when I say yes they respond with some sort of disbelief.

After 65 cruises, I would love to continue cruising when this all settles down, but the 70+ doctor's release will be a game changer for me.  It really depends on how they handle that if I will ever go on another cruise.

I have a Nov cruise booked on Oasis - not holding my breath for that one to either sail or for me to be on.

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8 minutes ago, JAMESCC said:

Yet cruise bookings for 2021 are up 9% from last year? What the hell does that tell you people? The demand is still there. This is a very resilient industry. I think the people around here absolutely nuts with pessimism. Its actually quite sad. 

There are a lot of displaced cruisers from this year that are contrubuting to those increased bookings for next year. I certainly think the cruise lines will have a renewed appreciation for its repeat customers who love cruising as the new supply may not be quite so plentiful especially at the pricing that the lines are attempting to get.

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1 minute ago, danv3 said:

 

Is that new demand?  It tells me that people are canceling 2020 cruises and rebooking.  

There is a travel agency CEO that I follow on You Tube that said the last 2 weeks have been the biggest booking weeks of his entire career. He has been doing this for 15 years I believe, He said its a mix of re-booking and brand new bookings. The pessimism here just unreal. I would have thought this entire virus began, started and one spread because of cruise ship if I listen to people on here. 

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