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Whats happening? SB refunds and payments Covid19


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I cancelled my July cruise in the MED, and want to rebook for July 2021 even at the higher price.  However, I would never book a new cruise until I get my refund. Only been three weeks, and I was told 60 to 90 days. Once I get the refund, I can do the reduced deposit with the current sale. Can use my 15% FCC on top of the reduced deposit. I also have two cruises on HAL that I will cancel before final due to these long wait times. Don't want to go through the same thing with the long wait times. 

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I believe Carnival announced that half of the passengers who had their cruises canceled took the FCC, and i believe the CEO mentioned $4 billion of cancelations. They claim 2021 cruises are filling up quickly, but how many are simply FCC passengers booking their rooms, or new bookers taking advantage of easy cancelation policies and reduced deposits is anyone's guess. 

He also mentioned that they were losing $900 million a month, so $4 billion of new funds doesn't really go that far without revenue. If the Saudis bought a chunk of Carnival at $18, I gather they were probably a good bet to be buyers at 11% with full security of all the assets, so the dye has been set. There will be a cruise industry, and most of our favourite ships will be there, but right now, Carnival has to pay for the crews and maintenance of 88 or so ships floating around, plus debt payments, thus our refunds won't be coming until they reopen for business in a meaningful way. Once they get real deposits from real customers ( non FCC) they will have some cash flow to make the promised refunds, be patient. 

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3 minutes ago, westmount said:

I believe Carnival announced that half of the passengers who had their cruises canceled took the FCC, and i believe the CEO mentioned $4 billion of cancelations. They claim 2021 cruises are filling up quickly, but how many are simply FCC passengers booking their rooms, or new bookers taking advantage of easy cancelation policies and reduced deposits is anyone's guess. 

He also mentioned that they were losing $900 million a month, so $4 billion of new funds doesn't really go that far without revenue. If the Saudis bought a chunk of Carnival at $18, I gather they were probably a good bet to be buyers at 11% with full security of all the assets, so the dye has been set. There will be a cruise industry, and most of our favourite ships will be there, but right now, Carnival has to pay for the crews and maintenance of 88 or so ships floating around, plus debt payments, thus our refunds won't be coming until they reopen for business in a meaningful way. Once they get real deposits from real customers ( non FCC) they will have some cash flow to make the promised refunds, be patient. 

Some comments

Cruise lines always say cruises are filling up in order to sell whether true or not

Saudis buying shares does nothing to add to the liquidity and no reason to believe they would buy debt as assets consist mostly of cruise ships and selling cruise ships in this down market will be extremely difficult.

Last I heard Carnival has over 100 ships with 16 on order spread among 9 cruise lines

 

Not a pretty picture just trying to set the statistics straight.

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I wasn't sure of the exact details, but once the Saudis took the position they did, it would seem likely that they would be one of the players in buying the debt. The debt also comes with full security, and i don't think anyone would try and sell ships, the debt holders  would simply take over the company, not a bad deal for $4 billion. Whether good or bad, there's a trillion dollars of venture cash sitting on the sidelines waiting for this type of event to occur, and companies with big debts and virus issues are going to get swallowed up, rewards go to the patient ( I believe I saw Warren Buffet say this) 

 Both RCL and CCL have very wealthy, deep pocketed insiders, so I doubt they will let control go elsewhere, but sometimes when you need a few billion and you don't want to dig that deep into your pocket, someone else will. Money talks, bs walks. 

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Posted (edited)
31 minutes ago, rallydave said:

Some comments

Cruise lines always say cruises are filling up in order to sell whether true or not

Saudis buying shares does nothing to add to the liquidity and no reason to believe they would buy debt as assets consist mostly of cruise ships and selling cruise ships in this down market will be extremely difficult.

Last I heard Carnival has over 100 ships with 16 on order spread among 9 cruise lines

 

Not a pretty picture just trying to set the statistics straight.

You and I have discussed this before and you urged patience, but refunds look less and less likely to me.

Monday is 60 days for me and I am calling them.

Depending on the answer I get, I will file a dispute with my CC company.

I received my UA miles & voucher along with money refund almost instantly, Iberia Avios and money within 1 week, KLM miles and money (over $1000 in fees) in 10 days and - drum roll - as I had said above, 2 Viking deposits in 3 days.

They all involved the same banks as SB.

Seabourn is now at 2 months and we'll see how long it takes Oceania - and before people claim that those 2 companies are "overwhelmed", I venture to guess that Viking has more bookings (river & ocean) than SB & O combined.

If there is a will (& money), there is a way....

Edited by Paulchili
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4 minutes ago, Paulchili said:

As you and I have discussed before, refunds look less and less likely to me.

Monday is 60 days for me and I am calling them.

Depending on the answer I get, I will file a dispute with my CC company.

I received my UA miles/voucher and money almost instantly, Iberia Avios and money within 1 week, KLM miles and money (over $1000 in fees) in 10 days and - drum roll - as I had said above, 2 Viking deposits in 3 days.

They all involved the same banks as SB.

Seabourn is now at 2 months and we'll see how long it takes Oceania - and before people claim that those 2 companies are "overwhelmed", I venture to guess that Viking has more bookings (river & ocean) than SB & O combined.

If there is a will (& money), there is a way....

Glad you are waitng for the promised 60 days.  Giving the credit card company something tangible so that they accept and forward your dispute is a good thing and what I recomment.  We are now at 5 weeks so have another 3 1/2 weeks to hit 60 days and will dispute at that time as well.  Got a promise last week that we would have our FCC by the end of the week and as expected nothing.  Will give that a few more days and then contact my TA for further action.

 

Good luck with your dispute.  Believe Seabourn/Carnival has the cash on hand right now but, with cancellations continuing month by month if they don't start sailing soon money will be gone and nobody will be lending or buying stock except to take over the ompany for much less than the value of the company..

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4 hours ago, rallydave said:

Some comments

Cruise lines always say cruises are filling up in order to sell whether true or not

Saudis buying shares does nothing to add to the liquidity and no reason to believe they would buy debt as assets consist mostly of cruise ships and selling cruise ships in this down market will be extremely difficult.

Last I heard Carnival has over 100 ships with 16 on order spread among 9 cruise lines

 

Not a pretty picture just trying to set the statistics straight.

Carnival also owns ports installations in a number of places.  Just thought I would mention that.  Don't ask me where--I just remember Mr. SLSD mentioning that while he was doing his research.  

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3 minutes ago, SLSD said:

Carnival also owns ports installations in a number of places.  Just thought I would mention that.  Don't ask me where--I just remember Mr. SLSD mentioning that while he was doing his research.  

Those port installations are probably worth more than the ships at this point in time with the current huge excess plus many ships on order/under construction  without a lot of money to pay for them..

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I gather Jerome Powers is going to get free wifi and laundry service the next time he goes cruising. On the other hand, I'm not sure the funds believe Carnival will survive and will be ready to take over if need be. They get a decent return on their money , and if things get tough, they'll take control, something they are used to. That said, there's now no excuse not to pay refunds, although i imagine they will offer 150% FCC at some point, as cash is still tight and will be for a long time. Now all we need is a vaccine and Carnmask to compete with Royal's. 

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OK, I need to have a rant. This is all about money. Yes, we all have made some form of investment in a company which, I can only assume, we have all benefited from in the past with fantastic service, exemplary employees, first class POC's and tours. And so, we find not only ourselves, but the whole cruise industry in distress.

 

When will we get our refunds or FCC,  that is the hue and cry from all within this Forum. What is the average out of pocket expense we have invested with our cruises in peril, $10K - $30K? What is the average age of fellow cruisers, 70 plus maybe, say 90%. Given those numbers are relevant, we find ourselves in the so called Golden Years, a time when we can afford to relax and choose our own destiny. We have the financial capabilities and we will spend as we see fit.

 

So let us take a different view, we God willing, are all in decent health. Today this Covid-19 has impacted the lives of over 1,000,000 people worldwide, 100,000 deaths in the USA alone. Businesses, small and large, on the verge of bankruptcy, over 25 million workers in the USA now furloughed or layed off, unemployment figures which are just mind boggling. Those nest egg savings being diluted just to make ends meet for the average working families. Lock downs around the world, UK, France, Italy, Spain, Germany  to name a few, and for the foreseeable future. So would you rather bleat about money, your health or your disposition.

 

Folks, some of you may be hurting financially and we feel for you, but look in the mirror and say thank God we are not in any of their shoes. I could go on, but I will not. Suffice to say, "Patience is a virtue, obsessed by many, granted to few"

 

Joe 

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3 hours ago, JP1320 said:

 

You are a great source of marketing for the WSJ, subscription required, I think not. 

Many have subscriptions.  So sorry if you are not able to read the article.  I thought it was pertinent. 

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1 minute ago, SLSD said:

Many have subscriptions.  So sorry if you are not able to read the article.  I thought it was pertinent. 

No problem, I am sure it was interesting.

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3 hours ago, JP1320 said:

 

 

So let us take a different view, we God willing, are all in decent health. Today this Covid-19 has impacted the lives of over 1,000,000 people worldwide, 100,000 deaths in the USA alone. Businesses, small and large, on the verge of bankruptcy, over 25 million workers in the USA now furloughed or layed off, unemployment figures which are just mind boggling. Those nest egg savings being diluted just to make ends meet for the average working families. Lock downs around the world, UK, France, Italy, Spain, Germany  to name a few, and for the foreseeable future. So would you rather bleat about money, your health or your disposition.

 

Folks, some of you may be hurting financially and we feel for you, but look in the mirror and say thank God we are not in any of their shoes. I could go on, but I will not. Suffice to say, "Patience is a virtue, obsessed by many, granted to few"

 

Joe 

I tend to agree with you Joe.  I am assuming that no one spends money on a Seabourn cruise using money they cannot afford to lose.  I still remain hopeful that everyone will get a refund, but  may have to wait a while.  

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6 minutes ago, JP1320 said:

No problem, I am sure it was interesting.

I'll see if I can copy and paste.  Stay tuned.  Some may not be interested, but Mr. SLSD and I found it so.  

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42 minutes ago, SLSD said:

I'll see if I can copy and paste.  Stay tuned.  Some may not be interested, but Mr. SLSD and I found it so.  

Thank you, in this day and age one can become inundated with requests for membership fees. Long gone are the days when one could peruse any and all daily newspapers.😂😂

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, JP1320 said:

Thank you, in this day and age one can become inundated with requests for membership fees. Long gone are the days when one could peruse any and all daily newspapers.😂😂

 

 

 

 

 

“WSJ NEWS EXCLUSIVE  MARKETS

© Wall Street Journal

 

How Fed Intervention Saved Carnival

The cruise line asked hedge funds for cash before central-bank intervention reopened bond markets

By Matt Wirz

April 26, 2020 1:00 pm ET

 

It was mid-March and the vultures were circling Carnival CCL 11.40% Corp., the largest cruise-line operator in the world.

 

The company, virtually shut down by the coronavirus outbreak, needed billions of dollars fast. With financial markets frozen, executives were forced to consider a high-interest loan from a band of hedge funds who called themselves “the consortium.” The group included Apollo Management Group, Elliott Management Corp. and other distressed-debt investors that sometimes take over the companies they lend to, people familiar with the matter said.

 

That all changed on March 23 when the Federal Reserve defibrillated bond markets with an unprecedented lending program. Within days, Carnival’s investment bankers at JPMorgan Chase & Co. were talking to conventional investors such as AllianceBernstein Holding and Vanguard Group about a deal. By April 1, the company had raised almost $6 billion in bond markets, paying rates far below those executives had discussed just days earlier.

 

The previously unreported tale of Carnival’s rescue shows how effective the Fed has been in turning the debt spigot back on for large corporations. Carnival may still founder if tourists shun cruises over the long term, and its new debt carries a far heftier price tag than previous offerings. But the immediate survival of the company, which employs about 150,000 people, is no longer in question.

 

Elliott’s owner, Paul Singer, and others have warned that this success story comes at a cost. The Fed could be setting the U.S. economy up for a harder fall down the road, they contend, by flooding markets with cash and spurring investors to prop up firms that may not be fit to survive.

 

Regardless, dozens of large companies have taken the Fed’s lead and raised billions of dollars in the weeks since Carnival helped reopen the market. Airbnb Inc. obtained a $1 billion financing a few days after Carnival. Ford Motor Co. recently sold an $8 billion junk bond, the biggest ever, and Delta Air Lines Inc. is looking to raise $3 billion in debt markets to bolster its cash pile, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.

 

This account of Carnival’s rescue is based on interviews with investors and others involved in the company’s financial decision making over the past six weeks.

 

Miami-based Carnival was in growth mode last fall, building its largest liner ever—an 18-deck, 180,000-ton behemoth—and using its high credit rating to borrow in debt markets at a 1% interest rate.

 

The forecast turned bleak early this year as Covid-19 outbreaks hit the cruise industry. By early February, Carnival was slashing prices to attract customers. The company lost its single-A credit rating from Moody’s Investors Service March 11. Two days later, it stopped cruise operations and drew down its entire $3 billion credit line from bank lenders.

 

Even with most ships docked, Chief Financial Officer David Bernstein calculated Carnival needed $1 billion a month to cover customer refunds, debt payments and operational costs. But corporate bond markets were seizing up and fund managers were rushing to dump investments in travel-and-leisure companies. Carnival’s bonds fell to 70 cents on the dollar by mid-March from 100 cents in late February, according to analytics firm AdvantageData, and its stock lost about 75% over the same period.

 

As the new reality sank in, senior management asked several Wall Street banks to find alternative lenders who would be willing to make a deal.

 

Hedge funds that traffic in distressed debt such as Apollo have been raising money from clients for years, waiting for the day the post-2008 credit market expansion would end. When the pandemic spread in late February, they began analyzing companies they thought would be most in need of cash, ranging from online ticketing services such as Live Nation Entertainment Inc. and Expedia Group Inc. to theater chain AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. and Carnival.

 

Their strategy was to make loans backed by the borrowers’ assets that would pay high yields if the companies avoided default and let the funds take ownership if they didn’t. The hedge funds favored such big-ticket deals in part because they wanted to invest large amounts quickly.

 

JPMorgan let funds interested in Carnival know the company was looking for $4 billion to $6 billion. On March 20, the consortium including Apollo, Centerbridge Partners, Elliott, GSO Capital Partners and Oaktree Capital Management proposed a deal that would cost Carnival an annual interest rate exceeding 15% and potentially give the lenders a stake in the company.

 

At the same time, Carnival had been approached by credit-investing firm Sixth Street Partners with a very different plan: Sixth Street proposed to buy up to $1.5 billion of secured debt that could convert into Carnival equity, contingent upon the company raising an additional $5 billion to $7 billion in stock and debt markets.

 

Mr. Bernstein was still debating options on March 23 when Fed Chairman Jerome Powell expanded the central bank’s market intervention to include loans to companies with investment-grade ratings as well as purchases of their bonds.

 

Mutual funds and other institutional investors started buying corporate bonds again in anticipation of the Fed’s purchases. JPMorgan entered confidential negotiations with several large firms about a public bond backed by Carnival’s fleet at a 13% interest rate. By Sunday, March 29, the bank had unofficial orders for about $2.5 billion, and the following day Mr. Bernstein decided to try a sale of public bonds with JPMorgan, leaving the hedge funds pursuing him in the lurch.

 

The idea of a cruise company raising so much new debt even as the pandemic worsened caught many by surprise. Nevertheless, fear of missing out attracted more investors. When Carnival officially sold a $4 billion bond on April 1, it had enough demand to cut the interest rate down to 11.5% and issue a $1.75 billion bond that could convert into stock.

 

“We’ve made good progress,” Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said that day. Companies “are still accessing the market at a premium, but they are accessing the market.”

 

—Nick Timiraos contributed to this article.”

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



 
 
 
 
 
AIbEiAIAAABECMXlkcLV9PH0wAEiC3ZjYXJkX3Bob3RvKigyMDVmZTMxYmRlN2QyOGFmMzk4NzYwMzgxNjAzNmY3YWFkY2YxYjI3MAGdePdSTjQa0TcnRWZIGwhpI4cAog?sz=40
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Edited by SLSD
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I think we are all on the same page. We all want to cruise again, although its not that important at the current moment, but a nice diversion to think about.  Refunds will come about once the cruiselines reopen for business, as there's no real reason for them to rush the money back given the line of obligations they have at there current time. If you have to make a choice between paying your onboard staff, the Bank,  and your unsecured creditors, the choice is usually made for you. 

There was a story on CNBC about the relationship between the Arison family and the current President, and if you happen to follow these things, it's not like the current President hasn't been talking about saving the "wonderful, great, fabulous" cruise line industry and the jobs it provides in Florida ( how many electoral college seats is florida) so let's just say that Carnival could not sell more than 25% of the shares it wished to at $8, but there Fed came in and backstopped the deal that gave them $6 billion, never mind the Leader of Saudi Arabia bought a 8% stake for $18 not so long ago. It's always important to have friends in high places, just saying. 

 Interesting story today from Vegas, where one of the casinos is installing heat sensors into their security system, where they can identify anyone in the casino with a fever etc.  We might not have any privacy ever again, but between google, facebook, apple, medical science, apps, a mask and a deposit, we'll be enjoying great cruises in not so far into the future. 

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1 hour ago, SLSD said:

 

 

 

 

 

“WSJ NEWS EXCLUSIVE  MARKETS

© Wall Street Journal

 

How Fed Intervention Saved Carnival

The cruise line asked hedge funds for cash before central-bank intervention reopened bond markets

By Matt Wirz

April 26, 2020 1:00 pm ET

 

It was mid-March and the vultures were circling Carnival CCL 11.40% Corp., the largest cruise-line operator in the world.

 

Thank you, the basic subject I had read elsewhere, but still a good read. Arison will not pull the plug, Micky has been around the block a few too many times in his lifetime to surrender. They are the largest for a reason, time to sit back, relax and enjoy a cocktail, or maybe even improve your home cooking skills.😂😂

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



 
 
 
 
 
AIbEiAIAAABECMXlkcLV9PH0wAEiC3ZjYXJkX3Bob3RvKigyMDVmZTMxYmRlN2QyOGFmMzk4NzYwMzgxNjAzNmY3YWFkY2YxYjI3MAGdePdSTjQa0TcnRWZIGwhpI4cAog?sz=40
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Posted (edited)
8 hours ago, JP1320 said:

OK, I need to have a rant. This is all about money. Yes, we all have made some form of investment in a company which, I can only assume, we have all benefited from in the past with fantastic service, exemplary employees, first class POC's and tours. And so, we find not only ourselves, but the whole cruise industry in distress.

 

When will we get our refunds or FCC,  that is the hue and cry from all within this Forum. What is the average out of pocket expense we have invested with our cruises in peril, $10K - $30K? What is the average age of fellow cruisers, 70 plus maybe, say 90%. Given those numbers are relevant, we find ourselves in the so called Golden Years, a time when we can afford to relax and choose our own destiny. We have the financial capabilities and we will spend as we see fit.

 

So let us take a different view, we God willing, are all in decent health. Today this Covid-19 has impacted the lives of over 1,000,000 people worldwide, 100,000 deaths in the USA alone. Businesses, small and large, on the verge of bankruptcy, over 25 million workers in the USA now furloughed or layed off, unemployment figures which are just mind boggling. Those nest egg savings being diluted just to make ends meet for the average working families. Lock downs around the world, UK, France, Italy, Spain, Germany  to name a few, and for the foreseeable future. So would you rather bleat about money, your health or your disposition.

 

Folks, some of you may be hurting financially and we feel for you, but look in the mirror and say thank God we are not in any of their shoes. I could go on, but I will not. Suffice to say, "Patience is a virtue, obsessed by many, granted to few"

 

Joe 

Except for one thing Joe, this forum topic is specifically about ** What is happening with our refunds... **

 

I do not know whether you are waiting on a refund or not, but the topic is not about whingeing-  its about a group of people who are due refunds, who have not been well communicated with by SB.

 

The topic was started to try and find out through our involved group whether any, some or a few refunds have been forthcoming.  To date zero as far as I know.

 

Whilst I agree 100% that this may not be cool in the light of global issues, the topic of this post is refunds and only refunds.

 

Please make your inferred judgements elsewhere, it is not fair to cover the fact that this company is not doing the right thing NOR communicating with regard to PROMISED refunds.

Edited by zimflyer
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2 minutes ago, zimflyer said:

Except for one thing Joe, this forum topic is specifically about ** What is happening with our refunds... **

 

I do not know whether you are waiting on a refund or not, but the topic is not about whingeing-  its about a group of people who are due refunds, who have not been well communicated with by SB.

 

The topic was started to try and find out through our involved group whether any, some or a few refunds have been forthcoming.  To date zero as far as I know.

 

Whilst I agree 100% that this may not be cool in the light of global issues, the topic of this post is refunds and only refunds.

Perhaps I should have clarified that we are, like so many other cruisers, subject to a waiting period for our refund, and a sizeable one at that, hence the reason for my post. However, that, IMHO, is of a secondary nature given the current dilemma throughout the world with this virus.

 

Your reference that this forum is only about our refunds is somewhat redundant, as the base subject goes off on many tangents, from publications about the fortunes of not only Carnival, the parent company to other worldly cruise lines and their rational. We have all, possibly, been advised by our TA's or Seabourn directly that the rule of thumb is between 60 - 90 days. In fact my only prior post on this subject of refunds was to advise that my own personal TA had advised me accordingly, which did appear to set of some alarms.

 

As I made comment, would you like to have the chance to be in any of those affected shoes, hospitalized, nursing homes or on just a plain old steel gurney in a morgue. You cannot take money with you when we go and for sure there are no pockets in a shroud. Incidentally, the use of the word 'cool' in a sentence concerning a global epidemic is a poor taste of vocabulary.

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