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seaman11

What are the chances end of may cruises starting up?

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Fortunately the HAL ships have both docked in FT Lauderdale.  The 250 Canadians are said to getting ready to fly home soon. Zaandam and Rotterdam are finally going to be able to disembark all passengers within the next few days. 

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1 minute ago, Love my butler said:

To quote Animal House "zero point zero".

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Our cruise for April 2021 which was booked about a year ago is doubtful. We will not go unless there is an easy cure or effective vaccine. We may cancel anyway to get a lower price.

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1 minute ago, vpearlkc said:

Our cruise for April 2021 which was booked about a year ago is doubtful. We will not go unless there is an easy cure or effective vaccine. We may cancel anyway to get a lower price.

2021?   thats a long way off. i wouldnt worry about a year from now.

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I’d be more concerned cruise lines. X. Y. Z. Don’t go bankrupt by May June.  Before some of us get our 90 day refunds back.     Stay tuned. 

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There will be zero cruise's rest of this year.  Lets get real about this.

 

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Posted (edited)

Blucruising - Correct:  nobody has mandated this.

 

But ... can anyone envision a scene where TSA bosses and Coast Guard commanders hear "Oh, Princess or Norwegian or Celebrity would like to sail June 10 from Tampa ... " and then reply "Sure, fine. We'll advise ports to be ready to accept another emergency boatload of sick, elderly passengers if the ship runs into trouble. They'll want a military base for a standby quarantine center? No problem. And we'll help them charter some planes if it all goes south when they're in foreign waters."

 

Not. Going. To. Happen. 
 

I love cruising, but the truth is that the traditional model is now broken. 


 

Edited by EscapeFromConnecticut

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4 hours ago, vpearlkc said:

Our cruise for April 2021 which was booked about a year ago is doubtful. We will not go unless there is an easy cure or effective vaccine. We may cancel anyway to get a lower price.

 

4 hours ago, seaman11 said:

2021?   thats a long way off. i wouldnt worry about a year from now.


We have a river cruise in Europe in April 2021, and I have concerns about it. It’s very hard to believe that a vaccine will have been developed by then and also have been made widely available. Without that, traveling would seem quite risky. I hope I’m wrong on the timelines, but I don’t think it’s unreasonable to worry about a cruise a year out.

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2021 before anything goes, remember cruise vouchers will blow in the wind in bankruptcy, cash in your pocket won’t...

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Zero and I doubt any cruises in June either and even possibly July 

 

People need to know how serious this virus is....We can always cruise again in the future 

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13 hours ago, seaman11 said:

i am rebooking and thinking about end of may.  do you all think that is too soon or think that the cruise companies have made up their minds that this is the date may 10th that they will start back up no matter what? 

No, I don't think May 2021 is too soon.....maybe even April 2021.😉

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13 hours ago, Georgia_Peaches said:

@david_sobe I think it's difficult for people who are not in a hot spot to understand what is actually happening in a hot spot.  You guys are particularly hard hit with all the port traffic and the fact that your governor was slow to issue the order to stay home didn't help matters.  Georgia is now under a stay at home order state-wide (also slow to come) but that didn't come about until our governor woke up and realized that our spring breakers still planned to head to Florida for vacation of all things!  Some people just don't seem to get it until it becomes an issue in their own back yards.  Admittedly, I didn't fully understand until Atlanta became a hot bed of its own.

Stay well down there!

Just talked to our cruise mates that live in Fla. She is saying/hearing August before anything gets better.

 

Is that a projection absolutely, isn't any news a projection right now. The reality is until we get an all clear no one is sailing, no one is vacationing anywhere, many are out of a job, and the world as we have known it has been turned upside down.

 

Not something anyone wants to see again.

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1 hour ago, Isabella Benjamin said:

I don't think I'm going to be able to get a haircut by May, much less go on a cruise.  

Funny you should say that.  I had a hair appointment for April 6th to get ready for our cruise on April 11th.  Got a message the other day reminding me of my appointment....much like receiving my luggage tags for a cruise I know is't happening.  Got a call from the salon saying my April 6th was cancelled (really?) but that they could fit me in on April 11th (again, really?).  Naw, I said.  Nothing is happening in April around here and May isn't looking good either.  Thank goodness for the ponytail and ball cap!

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Johnson & Johnson has said it will begin clinical trials of its vaccine by September of this year and will have the first batches available for emergency use by early next year.  They also said they have made capacity in their plants to produce one billion doses during the first half of 2021.  So, safe cruising may happen in the latter half of 2021.

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I was originally under the assumption that May cruises would be happening but I don't see that occurring now.  We have a cruise booked in June for our son's graduation and that has little chance of happening.

 

We have another one booked in August on Carnival and still feel we have a fighting chance on that one.  One thing that isn't being given enough credit is the new 5 minute testing kit that was approved.  If they can make enough of these kits and get them distributed, places like nursing homes, hospitals and cruise lines would be able to use them prior to allowing access.  This would almost ensure that nobody onboard has the virus.  Ports of call would more readily open if they had this assurance as well.  Certainly could kick-start the cruise business back up.

 

25 minutes ago, GA Dave said:

Johnson & Johnson has said it will begin clinical trials of its vaccine by September of this year and will have the first batches available for emergency use by early next year.  They also said they have made capacity in their plants to produce one billion doses during the first half of 2021.  So, safe cruising may happen in the latter half of 2021.

Another company has already started clinical trials for a vaccine.  They started about a week ago.  I remember it was either a 2 or 3 step process.

 

I personally think this will die out and we'll never hear of it again.

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For those that are itching to get on a cruise the moment they become available, here are the pitfalls with the current system.

As I said in another post unless cruise lines and Port Authorities have new agreements and procedures of how to deal with sick passengers, I don;'t see how cruising can startup again. It really has nothing to do with whether you're afraid of catching the virus.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/03/us/costa-luminosa-passengers-ordeal/index.html 

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38 minutes ago, buckeyefrank said:

We have another one booked in August on Carnival and still feel we have a fighting chance on that one.  One thing that isn't being given enough credit is the new 5 minute testing kit that was approved.  If they can make enough of these kits and get them distributed, places like nursing homes, hospitals and cruise lines would be able to use them prior to allowing access.  This would almost ensure that nobody onboard has the virus.  Ports of call would more readily open if they had this assurance as well.  Certainly could kick-start the cruise business back up.

 

But the cruise line would have to test everyone before they got on, before they got off at every port, as they get back on at every port, etc.  That's a lot of testing and a lot of expense.  We know people can be asymptomatic and transmit the disease - do we know what the incubation period is?  I mean, if I'm exposed while out &about on a 4-hour excursion, will that show as a positive result before I get back on the ship?

 

I don't think it's going to happen anytime soon.  I live in NJ.  We're stir crazy and only going out as needed - one of the 'as-needed' is a weekly shopping trip that my best friend and I take to stock up both our houses.  Other than that, I haven't been inside another store. (Except Primos for hoagies, once. 🙂 )

 

But I have to go to the grocery store twice a day 6 days a week because my son works there, and he doesn't drive so I take him and pick him up.  As the weather is getting warmer, he'd prefer to walk (it's only about 2 miles) but I'm not sure that's safer for him or not.

 

Everyone is in  a state of panic, at some degree or another.  My company has declared that no one will be losing their jobs as a result of this (pretty bold statement for an international company with over 80k employees worldwide, but it's in writing!) but we're still essential and while some of us can work from home (like me), many  of my colleagues do not have that option because they have to be present to handle financial transactions for our customers.

 

If there are cruises this year, my guess is they won't start before the fall.  Ships are not going to be repositioned as they normally would be.  Alaska probably won't see anything with their short season (and this bums me out because that was MY cruise this year).  I have a friend who is an entertainer for RCI, her contract was canceled and she's home - she has no idea when she'll be called back or where she will be sent when she is called back, but she has heard absolutely nothing, nor have any of her cast mates.  Many essential personnel have been sent back to their countries, and ships are operating with very limited crew to keep things going while they are docked.  Those people all have to come back.  International flights just aren't there to support that.  

 

So once we start seeing ship crew and entertainers getting their contracts back, my guess is we're looking at 4-6 weeks from /that/ point before the ships are actually ready to sail.

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Posted (edited)

https://www.cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/22713-hot-lay-up-to-cost-millions-per-month-per-cruise-ship.html

 

 

Carnival Corp (100+ ships) has reportedly told the SEC "We currently estimate the substantial majority of our fleet will be in prolonged ship layup,"  At a cost of $1 million/ship/month, that's $100+ million a month.

 

I anticipate bankruptcies.

 

In the future, very few people would risk taking a cruise, even if the authorities would allow it, which they almost certainly won't anytime before bankruptcy .

Edited by latserrof

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Posted (edited)

Also some good information in their Q1 SEC filing and disclosures posted yesterday. 
 

sorry edited to say was looking at Carnival’s statements, not NCL’s

Edited by OzCanuck

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For me, I won't feel comfortable getting on a cruise again for years.    Because I got COVID in mid February on the Pearl and I am traumatized.

 

But for other people still,  I don't think anyone is going to be comfortable around big crowds of people.   I think the football season NFL, College football is doomed.   I think concerts, Broadway, big lecture halls on college campuses, conventions, cruises anything like that is just doomed for the fall.    Even weddings, church services, movie theaters.   Its going to be terrible until a vaccine AND a medical treatment is widely available.   

 

 

 

 

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Vyhanek said:

For me, I won't feel comfortable getting on a cruise again for years.    Because I got COVID in mid February on the Pearl and I am traumatized.

 

But for other people still,  I don't think anyone is going to be comfortable around big crowds of people.   I think the football season NFL, College football is doomed.   I think concerts, Broadway, big lecture halls on college campuses, conventions, cruises anything like that is just doomed for the fall.    Even weddings, church services, movie theaters.   Its going to be terrible until a vaccine AND a medical treatment is widely available.   

 

 

 

 

Sorry you got the virus, but you recovered so there is hope for us.  Just curious if it was me I think I might feel better about being in crowds because I already have the antibodies, perhaps you could share some, if not well everyone reading what you said is sure glad that you recovered, cheers

Edited by Newleno

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