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seaman11

Curve beginning to flatten ,good news for the cruise industry

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https://www.newsweek.com/new-jersey-beginning-flatten-curve-coronavirus-cases-governor-says-1496426

 

https://www.wric.com/health/coronavirus/virginias-peak-coronavirus-outbreak-prediction-moved-from-may-to-april/

 

 

NJ already showing signs of flattening out and VA has moved up a may date to sometime in april. 

 

 

This is a good sign , for those pessimistic about the future. 

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I do think it still has a way to go though before we are able to cruise again. No other countries will welcome tourists as long as there is even a risk that they might bring Covid19.  In China now anyone arriving has to go through 14 days quarantine

 

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It has a long way to go. There are ships like Coral Princess still trying to disembark passengers from pre Coronavirus cruises. There are ships with ill crew members onboard. RCL is working through plans to get crew members home via their ships since flights are tough to get and the CDC has issued new, more restrictive, travel guidelines for those disembarking cruise ships.

 

The flattening out of cases is a good sign in general, but we are a long, long, way from resuming full service, in my opinion. That isn't pessimism...it's reality. And even when service resumes, passenger demand for travel, in general, and cruises, specifically, will remain very low. We need a vaccine.

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Curves flattening out mean the disease isn’t spreading as quickly as before, which is very important because it means there’s a chance the health care system won’t become overwhelmed. But it doesn’t mean the disease is gone, or that a vaccine or treatments have been developed. And it certainly doesn’t mean we can let up on social distancing and undo everything we’ve just accomplished.  I know we’d all like to be able to cruise again soon, but that’s just not going to happen. 

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1 hour ago, Turtles06 said:

Curves flattening out mean the disease isn’t spreading as quickly as before, which is very important because it means there’s a chance the health care system won’t become overwhelmed. But it doesn’t mean the disease is gone, or that a vaccine or treatments have been developed. And it certainly doesn’t mean we can let up on social distancing and undo everything we’ve just accomplished.  I know we’d all like to be able to cruise again soon, but that’s just not going to happen. 

 

We probably have a few more weeks until the curves flattening out here in Sweden. Only when that happens will we know if our politicians are as crazy as most of the world think!

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Still be 2020 before anchors away

 

 

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Posted (edited)
49 minutes ago, Trimone said:

Still be 2020 before anchors away

 

 

That's funny it is 2020 now! Just goes to show everyone has lost track of time.

Edited by beerman2

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1 minute ago, beerman2 said:

That's funny it is 2020 now! Just goes to show everyone has lost track of time.

Late April fool? 
Stay at home and healthy 

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Flattening of the curve does not have anything to do with cruising.  Look at South Korea.  They were the most aggressive country for testing, social distancing, and fighting the virus.  They flattened the curve in a major way.  So much that they started to open things again.  However another outbreak has their cases on the rise again.  This is exactly why cruising will not begin until there is a vaccine or some sort of immediate rapid test.  We cant seesaw back and forth for years with this.  Could you imagine if cruising begins again in September and we have more quarantined ships?  No U.S. port would accept the ship. Our hospitals and first responders are already overwhelmed.

Its great to have the positive outlook.  We need that to get us through these times.  However, there is no way thousands of people are going to be crammed together on ships again anytime soon.  It would be reckless and foolish.

The more positive aspect is the potential vaccine that is currently being tested.   This is not a complicated virus and they are confident this vaccine produces enough antibodies to fight off the virus.  But even fast tracked, its going to be at least 7 more months.

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There is a potential FLAW in the data re: the 'flattening of the curve in the NY, NJ hotspots.

 

The data doesn't factor in HOW MANY NY, NJ residents FLEED.

 

IMO, and likely became a factor in the destinations' concentrations; also generating new flaws in those emerging areas.

 

This is not a comment for or against people trying to take care of themselves and their families; just a consideration in looking at the data.

 

IMO, while everything was incrementally closed 'everywhere, yet the airports (including multiple, large international airports in the NY, NJ metro densely populated area) continued operations until only recently when passengers stopped flying.  However, prior to that (actions by the passengers) Federal, State and Local government officials and regulators waived "all the safeguards" (that we were required to apply "on the ground") for the airports, security lines, gate areas and, most critically, seating.  The risk was allowed to the passengers, all levels of personnel at the terminal and on  the plane and to those where they made hotel and dining stays (inbound) and the same where ever they went (outbound).

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Until there's a vaccine, we're either going to need to continue doing what we're doing now, or, we'll see the rate of increase resume shortly after businesses reopen. Can't have it both ways. We won't see "normal" until there's a vaccine. No MLB, NHL, or NFL seasons this year. No sports period. No concerts. No bars, No restaurants, No cruises. Nothing that involves a group gathering. People will need to continue to wear masks. Only hope between now and when a vaccine is readily available is that there are treatments available so fewer people will die from the coronavirus. But until there's a vaccine, the virus is in control

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Flattening is good in that the system will not be as overwhelmed hopefully.  But that is all that it means.  Reality is until there is a vaccine for the virus and we all have received it, or each of us has had the virus and recovered, the virus is still out there, highly contagious. And if even one person has it in the presence of those who have not, it can then transfer again and again into its explosive rate.  Until there is a "cure" and we've all been treated, I don't see how cruises, and many other things can ever resume.  Just looking at the factual reality of the situation.  Wish it was otherwise.  I know others here have said most of this already. 

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Flattening just means that the growth of the spread is stabilizing.  New York still has over 1000 people being admitted to the hospital EVERY DAY. They still have 600 people who die EVERY DAY. And over 8000 new cases EVERY DAY. 

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Posted (edited)

Here in NYC, epic center/C19 ground zero for USA - at the moment - I don't think anyone is calling the limited data a flattening of the high curves or even plateauing of the daily deaths - reported officially - for the first wave of this global epidemic, being tracked (and, due to lack of full testing as cited by medical examiners, coroners and funeral directors where C19 deaths might be a secondary factor).  

 

States like Louisiana are definitely not at/near the apex and racing toward the top of the hill, and other states in the US are not projected to reach the peak and/or flatten these dynmanic curves until later in April and May for this first wave of season 1 - medical experts, not politicians, around the globe are predicting and warning of a secondary waves and subsequent seasonal return of C19, until vaccine and proven clinical interventions are found - and/or enough of the world's population are infected & managed to recover & have immunity (and, quite a few - in large numbers - has and will die.)  

 

Hong Kong authorities, across the border from China launched very strict measures to slow & stop the pandemic from spreading, flatten their curves for its 7 million residents with low numbers for infections and deaths.  Measures were eased up last month, and, then it spiked up again due to "imported" cases & additional community infection, some blaming it on repatriated cruise ship passengers and stranded oversea travelers that came "home" & remained asymptomatic and were not detected by infra-red temperature scans and/or testing.  HK has now returned to stricter measures including mandatory quarantined and virtually shut its borders to visitors & tourists.  

 

Within our extended families are those on the healthcare frontline in nursing, pharmacy, air travel and air cargo, I.T. and busy in the repurposed supply chains - making PPE gowns - they would love to know that the country as a whole has this deadly pandemic under control, and not losing another friend or co-worker, etc. to this virus.  Hope and aspiration is not a proven strategy except for the minds.  We would love to get back to normal and start doing vacations again ... and easy cruising.  

 

P.S.  NYS just reported 731 new C19 deaths w/i last 24 hours and expected to continue with those high numbers for the near future.  NJ's numbers aren't looking any better.  Beginning of flattening of the curves are meaningless to those hurting and lying in ICU, 25% of them intubated.  

 

Edited by mking8288

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It is great that curve is getting flattened.  However the area under the curve is the same.  Basically the same number of people get the virus but over a longer period.  With a flattened curve the icu’s can handle the sick.   
 

it will be a very long time before anyone cruises again 

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5 minutes ago, Fartlek said:

It is great that curve is getting flattened.  However the area under the curve is the same.  Basically the same number of people get the virus but over a longer period.  With a flattened curve the icu’s can handle the sick.   
 

it will be a very long time before anyone cruises again 

I'm with you, unfortunately there are many that "think" cruises will resume mid May. Until the cruise lines have the capability to give each pax a test, just can't envision cruises.

 

Add in the fact many crew have gone home ( probably be quarantined 14days) once back on US soil, makes May pretty well done as far as cruising.

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2 hours ago, Laszlo said:

Until there's a vaccine, we're either going to need to continue doing what we're doing now, or, we'll see the rate of increase resume shortly after businesses reopen. Can't have it both ways. We won't see "normal" until there's a vaccine. No MLB, NHL, or NFL seasons this year. No sports period. No concerts. No bars, No restaurants, No cruises. Nothing that involves a group gathering. People will need to continue to wear masks. Only hope between now and when a vaccine is readily available is that there are treatments available so fewer people will die from the coronavirus. But until there's a vaccine, the virus is in control

 

Absolutely correct.

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Cruises were one of the first to feel the impact of the virus and I believe will be the vVERY last to get up and running. A vaccine is 18-24 months away and my guess is cruising will be another 6.  My guess is late 2022

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Posted (edited)
12 hours ago, seaman11 said:

https://www.newsweek.com/new-jersey-beginning-flatten-curve-coronavirus-cases-governor-says-1496426

 

https://www.wric.com/health/coronavirus/virginias-peak-coronavirus-outbreak-prediction-moved-from-may-to-april/

 

 

NJ already showing signs of flattening out and VA has moved up a may date to sometime in april. 

 

 

This is a good sign , for those pessimistic about the future. 

Your chance to get a suite with a upgrade or a  minimum bid.  And if the cruise doesn't happen you will have more future cruise credits for your next cruise.✌️

Edited by jskinsd

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I'm in New Jersey it's no where near flattening around here no matter what the news it reporting.

I work at Home Depot & we are limiting customers to 100 at a time & the amount of people that are shopping for non essentials are ridiculous. Families are coming in with their kids, walking around the store & then buying one gallon of paint! 

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1 hour ago, Fartlek said:

Cruises were one of the first to feel the impact of the virus and I believe will be the vVERY last to get up and running. A vaccine is 18-24 months away and my guess is cruising will be another 6.  My guess is late 2022

Trials beginning here today....

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/inovio-coronavirus-vaccine-trial-starts-in-philadelphia-kansas-city-2020-4

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5 hours ago, Laszlo said:

Until there's a vaccine, we're either going to need to continue doing what we're doing now, or, we'll see the rate of increase resume shortly after businesses reopen. Can't have it both ways. We won't see "normal" until there's a vaccine. No MLB, NHL, or NFL seasons this year. No sports period. No concerts. No bars, No restaurants, No cruises. Nothing that involves a group gathering. People will need to continue to wear masks. Only hope between now and when a vaccine is readily available is that there are treatments available so fewer people will die from the coronavirus. But until there's a vaccine, the virus is in control

 

If we assume that once you had it your immune, (I'm not sure we can assume that, or can we?) when enough people have had it the virus loose it's control.

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8 minutes ago, sverigecruiser said:

 

If we assume that once you had it your immune, (I'm not sure we can assume that, or can we?) when enough people have had it the virus loose it's control.

We can't assume anything at the moment, not with this bug. Typical with the common flu if you get it once during the season you won't get it again (that year). Flu shots can be hit or miss year to year. A few big questions, when will a vaccine be ready and to what degree will the Covid 19 virus mutate? In 9-12 months the virus could mutate for the better or worse and the vaccine they are working on will have little to know effect

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