How will ships get to Europe for Fall 2020 TAs

[AF-1]

We will all wait and see what happens.  Until the world gets the virus under control in the next 45 days; that will most likely determine when the ships will sail again.  We have a med cruised on Island booked for Oct 27.  If it goes fine; if not; we will look to book the following year.   Not a big deal.  Not going to worry about it.  I am sure my travel agent will notify me what is happening.  So for now we wait.  

[chengkp75]

1 hour ago, voljeep said:

Years ?

 

what's the difference in costs of having a ship in cold lay up for a year, and having the same ship in a warm lay up ?

For a warm lay up, you would have the fuel cost of running one engine at low load (50%), and perhaps 20-30 technical crew (may need to get approval from flag state if this number is less than statutory minimum manning).  Plus normal maintenance cost for the minimal operating equipment.

 

For a cold lay up, you save the fuel cost, and the crew cost.  On the other hand, you have to pay for a dock, long term (can't pull the plug on a ship at anchor).  Then you have to seal every opening to the outside, doors, vents, etc, and put dehumidifying chemicals around the ship (think large drums of "Damprid") and prop open all interior doors.  Then you have to drain all the piping in the ship, every single system, and blow it out with compressed air, to prevent freezing and bursting pipes, or corrosion if in warm weather.  Salt water systems need to be blown out and inerted with nitrogen to prevent corrosion from the residual salt and salt water moisture.  AC and refrigeration systems need to have the refrigerants removed to mitigate any possible leakage.  Fuel tanks need to be emptied, or fuel preservatives added to keep it viable, and if emptied, the tanks then need to be cleaned to remove all hydrocarbons, or have the tank atmosphere inerted with nitrogen.  Sea water ballast tanks need to be emptied, washed out, filled with fresh water to maintain stability.  Potable water tanks need to be emptied and sanitized.  Sewage tanks need to be emptied, washed out.  Each piece of engine room equipment needs to be set up for long term storage, which includes putting dessicant packages inside all electrical control boxes, and inside most machines.  Boilers need to be washed to remove soot which can become corrosive over time, the water drained, and dessicants put inside the boilers.  Engines need to have their oil drained, and special vapor phase inhibitor oil (which releases an anti-corrosive vapor inside the engine) added, and the fuel and water systems drained and blown out.  Covers need to be placed on the exhaust pipes from the engines and boilers.  That's just off the top of my head, there's probably a few systems I've left out.  And, finally, you need to hire a company to monitor the ship, and likely go aboard, enter the ship with a breathing device, and spend hours checking the condition of the dessicant material (it needs replacing when it absorbs all the moisture it can), and perhaps mechanically turning some major equipment like propellers and engines to keep from ruining the bearings from sitting in one position for a long period.  This will require some shore power to accomplish.

 

How much difference is there in cost?  I can't offer a wild guess, but it would take millions to cold lay up and restore a cruise ship.

[chengkp75]

1 hour ago, voljeep said:

exactly ... a "cruise" ship that needs to undergo a major rejuvenation would be a perfect candidate for such a cold lay up

 

then … wait for it ...

 

COME BACK NEW !!!!

If not done properly, the cost of hotel refurbishment would be the least of the costs involved, and the time for drydocking to repair infrastructure systems and major components.

 

Oh, and for my previous post about things needed for a cold lay up, the ship's certificate of inspection from the flag state, and the certificate of class from the classification society would be suspended, so upon "re-activation", the ship would need a drydocking and full inspection.

[pris993]

I just saw a piece on Venice... part of the story was Venice is thinking may reinvent travel to that city, without cruise ships... so suspect Europe is trying to figure what is best for them, which may look very different in the future relative to cruising.  So it is not the CDC that has say on cruising.

[rdsqrl]

chengkp75, I really appreciate the detailed post.  Fascinating stuff.  I greatly enjoy reading the technical information you share.  Thank you for  taking time to educate us. 

 

"Knowledge is good."

- Animal House, 1978.

[fredflint]

I think they could go a few different ways have 3-4-7 day cruises out of Florida to a limited number of ports or do a cruise to nowhere and stop at a private island.  Require a negative  test 14 days out and check for symptoms/temp before boarding and run at 75% to allow for more spacing in the dining room and on deck, skip  the shows entirely.

 

Just my 2 cents none will probably actually happen.

 

I have a November TA booked and am hoping it is cancelled before final payment.

[1965]

10 hours ago, fredflint said:

I think they could go a few different ways have 3-4-7 day cruises out of Florida to a limited number of ports or do a cruise to nowhere and stop at a private island.  Require a negative  test 14 days out and check for symptoms/temp before boarding and run at 75% to allow for more spacing in the dining room and on deck, skip  the shows entirely.

 

Just my 2 cents none will probably actually happen.

 

I have a November TA booked and am hoping it is cancelled before final payment.

We're also booked for a Nov. TA. Ours is Nov. 23, Southampton to Ft.L.  Is this the one you're on?

[emairs]

We are booked on the Sky TA from Copenhagen to New York, and will probably cancel before final payment date on June 6, if Princess hasn’t cancelled it by then.

I can’t imagine New York being virus free by September.

[AF-1]

Thanks for the explanation of differences between warm and cold layup.

[EscapeFromConnecticut]

It might be valuable to read the actual SEC filing, not anyone's interpretation of it:
 

    (the highlighting is mine, the text however is verbatim from CCL)

     "During the pause in our global fleet cruise operations, certain of our ships will be in warm ship layup where the ship will be manned by a full crew and certain of our ships will be in a prolonged ship layup where the ship will be manned by a limited crew. We estimate the cost per warm ship layup is approximately $2 million to $3 million per month and the cost per prolonged ship layup is approximately $1 million per month. We will decide whether each vessel in our global fleet will be in a warm ship layup or a prolonged ship layup depending on the circumstances, including the length of pause, which we expect to be extended and may be prolonged. We currently estimate the substantial majority of our fleet will be in prolonged ship layup."

      

[chengkp75]

9 minutes ago, EscapeFromConnecticut said:

It might be valuable to read the actual SEC filing, not anyone's interpretation of it:
 

    (the highlighting is mine, the text however is verbatim from CCL)

     "During the pause in our global fleet cruise operations, certain of our ships will be in warm ship layup where the ship will be manned by a full crew and certain of our ships will be in a prolonged ship layup where the ship will be manned by a limited crew. We estimate the cost per warm ship layup is approximately $2 million to $3 million per month and the cost per prolonged ship layup is approximately $1 million per month. We will decide whether each vessel in our global fleet will be in a warm ship layup or a prolonged ship layup depending on the circumstances, including the length of pause, which we expect to be extended and may be prolonged. We currently estimate the substantial majority of our fleet will be in prolonged ship layup."

      

And, actually, a ship manned by the full crew is not a warm lay up, it is a "hot" lay up.  As I've stated, a "cold" lay up means no crew what so ever onboard, just like the ships you see at anchor in the James River, and the Neches River in Beaumont, and there's one Ready Reserve Fleet on the West Coast as well. Cold lay up means "cold iron", which means no power at all, so no crew could remain onboard, not even "limited crew".

[voljeep]

7 minutes ago, chengkp75 said:

And, actually, a ship manned by the full crew is not a warm lay up, it is a "hot" lay up.  As I've stated, a "cold" lay up means no crew what so ever onboard, just like the ships you see at anchor in the James River, and the Neches River in Beaumont, and there's one Ready Reserve Fleet on the West Coast as well. Cold lay up means "cold iron", which means no power at all, so no crew could remain onboard, not even "limited crew".

 

21 minutes ago, EscapeFromConnecticut said:

It might be valuable to read the actual SEC filing, not anyone's interpretation of it:
 

    (the highlighting is mine, the text however is verbatim from CCL)

     "During the pause in our global fleet cruise operations, certain of our ships will be in warm ship layup where the ship will be manned by a full crew and certain of our ships will be in a prolonged ship layup where the ship will be manned by a limited crew. We estimate the cost per warm ship layup is approximately $2 million to $3 million per month and the cost per prolonged ship layup is approximately $1 million per month. We will decide whether each vessel in our global fleet will be in a warm ship layup or a prolonged ship layup depending on the circumstances, including the length of pause, which we expect to be extended and may be prolonged. We currently estimate the substantial majority of our fleet will be in prolonged ship layup."

      

 "prolonged" … ok, yeah, that's definitive 

[c-boy]

8 minutes ago, voljeep said:

 

 "prolonged" … ok, yeah, that's definitive 

ya, you'll be staring at em' off in the distance yearning for the day you can board again. 

[fredflint]

13 hours ago, 1965 said:

We're also booked for a Nov. TA. Ours is Nov. 23, Southampton to Ft.L.  Is this the one you're on?

No actually we are taking a TA on RCCL  ( Nov 7th)  this year and have one booked with Princess (Island)in 2021 it was supposed to be my retirement cruise since it is 28 days hits quite a few ports in the Med then crosses over to Florid.   With the stock market the way it is I think my retirement will be delayed for a couple of years.

[AF-1]

No use second guessing what the Cruise lines or CDC will do.  We just wait and see how things shake out.  It is what it is.  

[EscapeFromConnecticut]

Some folks would argue that water is dry ... and persist in that claim regardless of how clearly the facts contradict them.

 

So one more time: CCL's quarterly SEC filing says the substantial majority of its fleet will be in "prolonged ship layup." (Those folks who actually read CCL's statement will see that it specifically differentiates this status from "warm ship layup." And all of these are CCL's words, not mine)

 

Regardless of what people might prefer, that is precisely what the industry is doing. NCL joins in:

 

https://www.seatrade-cruise.com/news/nclh-sees-q1-and-2020-loss-bookings-still-coming-half-canceled-voyages-seek-refunds

 

So: NO, there will not be summertime cruising. Not. Going. To. Happen.

Edited April 28, 2020 by EscapeFromConnecticut

[EscapeFromConnecticut]

https://sec.report/Document/0000815097-20-000030/#ic76dea0e771c4049856848b569d6ec84_97
 

Edited April 28, 2020 by EscapeFromConnecticut

[CCFC]

I see Crown Princess has upped anchor and is heading to St Maartin

[Cash123]

50 minutes ago, CCFC said:

I see Crown Princess has upped anchor and is heading to St Maartin

This was discussed on another thread recently about various ships making their way to Europe &  Asia taking back crew, there are around 12 ships involved.

 

 

[AF-1]

Island Princess is also headed to the Phillipines.  St. Maartin is where they will refuel and take on some supplies; they head towards the Phillipines to drop off crew.