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Come on 2021!  We will see a slow but sure return to sailing.  Some will rush to be first in line but most will wait and see.  We will make sure to board with 2 bottles of Champagne and celebrate our next sail away and sunset!

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On 4/23/2020 at 8:52 AM, livingonthebeach said:

 

Screen Shot 2020-04-23 at 9.49.54 AM.png

omg I am cracking up at this. I booked an August cruise on Harmony for my birthday using a casino offer. So yes if the boats loading in August I am on one

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10 hours ago, Cruise a holic said:

Cannot believe that people do not understand how this virus spreads- not the flu, which in comparison to Covid is mild.  Covid is more like pneumonia then the flu.  It has the potential to kill many more people in the world.

 

Don't "drink the cool

 aid " stay home and listen to the scientists.  

We are listening to scientists. Read the article.

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16 hours ago, atgood said:

Here’s an article for good information:

https://idpjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s40249-020-00655-w

 

The article mentions it is estimated that each year, 1 billion cases of symptomatic influenza infection have occurred across the globe, including 3–5 million cases of severe illness and 290,000–650,000 cases of influenza-related respiratory deaths.  
 

Covid-19 has quite a way to go to reach an estimated 1 billion cases annually. 

 

There’s a very informative and recent video out featuring Dr. Dan Erickson and Dr. Artin Massihi, ER doctors in Kern County California.  They present hard data from the front line where they work and talk medical common sense.  There are two parts and they are a little over an hour in total.

 

Part 1:

 

 

Part 2:

 

 

One of the quotes from the video, "Well we have 39.5 million people [in California], if we just take a basic calculation and extrapolate that out, that equates to about 4.7 million cases throughout the state of California.  Which means this thing is widespread, that's the good news.  We've seen 1,227 deaths in the state of California with a possible incidents or prevalence of 4.7 million. That means you have a  0.03[%] chance of dying from COVID-19 in the state of California” if you test positive.  To summarize, millions of cases, small amount of death. 

 

I’ll summarize other numbers from the video.  

 

In NY state, 256,272 Covid-19 cases, 39% of those who were tested for Covid-19.  19,410 Covid-19 deaths out of a state population of 19,000,000 which is a chance of dying of 0.1% if you live in NY.  To summarize, millions of cases, small amount of death.  I calculated the mortality rate at 7.5% for those who test positive using his numbers, but that doesn’t include other underlying factors.  

 

In the USA, 802,590 positive Covid-19 cases in over 4 million tests (19.6% positive rate for those tested for Covid-19). Dr. Erickson mentions the number of deaths at 43,000 which was current at the time of the video and was in the range of influenza historically in the USA. 

 

Spain, the second largest number of Covid-19 cases has a 22% positive rate and a 0.05[%] chance of dying.  

 

Sweden and Norway didn’t go into lockdown.  Sweden did some social distancing.  Both countries experienced similar very low death rates as California, but neither country enforced a lockdown. 

 

Another quote from the video, "We decided to keep people at home and isolate them, even though everything we've studied about quarantine, typically you quarantine the sick.  When someone has measles you quarantine them.  We've never seen the healthy, where you take those without disease and without symptoms and lock them in your home.  So some of these things from what we've studied from immunology and microbiology aren't really meshing with what we know as people of scientific minds who read this stuff."

 

One final thing of note that they’ve observed during the lockdown, which a lot of us haven’t considered, is the increase in secondary effects (child abuse, domestic abuse, alcoholism, suicides, loss of revenue) from quarantining are significantly more detrimental than Covid-19. 

Thanks for posting this I saw it somewhere else yesterday.  A different view that's needed amidst a sea of hysteria and fear mongering in the media.

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16 hours ago, atgood said:

Here’s an article for good information:

https://idpjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s40249-020-00655-w

 

The article mentions it is estimated that each year, 1 billion cases of symptomatic influenza infection have occurred across the globe, including 3–5 million cases of severe illness and 290,000–650,000 cases of influenza-related respiratory deaths.  
 

Covid-19 has quite a way to go to reach an estimated 1 billion cases annually. 

 

There’s a very informative and recent video out featuring Dr. Dan Erickson and Dr. Artin Massihi, ER doctors in Kern County California.  They present hard data from the front line where they work and talk medical common sense.  There are two parts and they are a little over an hour in total.

 

Part 1:

 

 

Part 2:

 

 

One of the quotes from the video, "Well we have 39.5 million people [in California], if we just take a basic calculation and extrapolate that out, that equates to about 4.7 million cases throughout the state of California.  Which means this thing is widespread, that's the good news.  We've seen 1,227 deaths in the state of California with a possible incidents or prevalence of 4.7 million. That means you have a  0.03[%] chance of dying from COVID-19 in the state of California” if you test positive.  To summarize, millions of cases, small amount of death. 

 

I’ll summarize other numbers from the video.  

 

In NY state, 256,272 Covid-19 cases, 39% of those who were tested for Covid-19.  19,410 Covid-19 deaths out of a state population of 19,000,000 which is a chance of dying of 0.1% if you live in NY.  To summarize, millions of cases, small amount of death.  I calculated the mortality rate at 7.5% for those who test positive using his numbers, but that doesn’t include other underlying factors.  

 

In the USA, 802,590 positive Covid-19 cases in over 4 million tests (19.6% positive rate for those tested for Covid-19). Dr. Erickson mentions the number of deaths at 43,000 which was current at the time of the video and was in the range of influenza historically in the USA. 

 

Spain, the second largest number of Covid-19 cases has a 22% positive rate and a 0.05[%] chance of dying.  

 

Sweden and Norway didn’t go into lockdown.  Sweden did some social distancing.  Both countries experienced similar very low death rates as California, but neither country enforced a lockdown. 

 

Another quote from the video, "We decided to keep people at home and isolate them, even though everything we've studied about quarantine, typically you quarantine the sick.  When someone has measles you quarantine them.  We've never seen the healthy, where you take those without disease and without symptoms and lock them in your home.  So some of these things from what we've studied from immunology and microbiology aren't really meshing with what we know as people of scientific minds who read this stuff."

 

One final thing of note that they’ve observed during the lockdown, which a lot of us haven’t considered, is the increase in secondary effects (child abuse, domestic abuse, alcoholism, suicides, loss of revenue) from quarantining are significantly more detrimental than Covid-19. 

Yes, I viewed this a few days ago.  It is an eye opener and everyone should listen to what they have to say from their own statistics treating people with COVID each and every day.   I do feel we are making a grave mistake by staying isolated too much longer vs. getting out and getting back to work, etc., because we are lowering our immune system to be able to fight future outbreaks. With precautions of course and dependent on your age, health, etc., as they mention.  It would be great if other doctors who are actually treating people w/COVID would log their statistics as well and share with CDC which maybe these doctors have I hope.  But, what they say makes so much sense.

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13 minutes ago, bouhunter said:

Thanks for posting this I saw it somewhere else yesterday.  A different view that's needed amidst a sea of hysteria and fear mongering in the media.

 

There are several websites out there explaining why their math is wrong, their conclusions are wrong and their recommendations are wrong. Not surprising as they aren't epidemiologists. But people want what they are saying to be true (I want way they are saying to be true) so they are giving them credibility they don't deserve. 

 

One place it's easy to see they are dead wrong is when they talk about how we should be quarantining the sick, not the healthy. That part of the whole problem. We don't know who is sick and who is healthy due to a lack of testing. 

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1 hour ago, bouhunter said:

Thanks for posting this I saw it somewhere else yesterday.  A different view that's needed amidst a sea of hysteria and fear mongering in the media.

Yes, I saw this somewhere the other day...what they say makes sense, to a point, and I want to believe them...

BUT>>>

Come here to the NY/NJ metro area..the hospitals are busting at the seams, temporary hospitals are set up in convention centers, hotels and tents in the closed public parks.
Hospitals have refrigerated trunks in the parking lot to act as morgues.I

If a Loved one is admitted, you may never see them again....no visitors. They die alone.


My Daughter is a NP in Cardiology....but currently it's all hands on deck treating the Covid-19 cases on ventilators. Nurses, therapists, etc are burned out...professionals are coming in from other parts of the country. Many have rented campers and placed them in their driveways to live as opposed to going into their own homes.

THIS IS REAL!!!    You cannot compare its numbers to other Flu pandemics (In our Lifetime)
Sweden did not go into lock down....keep in mind the entire country is as ;large as Michigan and still has significant numbers.

I do believe there is much going on than meets the eye, and I want to believe many testimonies given by health care experts throughout the world....

But this is unprecedented...Never in  my lifetime has the USA gone thru anything like this before.

Cruising may slowly resume, in some parts of the country, but you can forget about anything from Bayonne for a while.  The governors of NY/NJ will not open the ports.

Edited by B-52
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1 hour ago, zekekelso said:

 

We don't know who is sick and who is healthy 

Bingo!  Meaning for most people it's not as horrific as we're being led to believe.  Perhaps we should continue to quarantine the elderly/compromised and the infected who are hurting.  And let the rest of the country get back to work and living.  When this is all said and done we'll have destroyed the economy and millions of businesses and jobs.  The scientists and academic's will pat themselves on the back and tell each other their experiment worked.  Sadly we'll never know if any of it was necessary.

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7 minutes ago, B-52 said:

 

Come here to the NY/NJ metro area..the hospitals are busting at the seams, temporary hospitals are set up in convention centers, hotels and tents in the closed public parks.

WRONG.  The convention center is folding up and was little used.  The Navy hospital ship is pulling up anchor and leaving New York.  No "tents or hotels" since the ship and Javits Center aren't even needed.  I know many vulnerable people have passed and it's sad.  But it's also sad to see unfounded stories used to whip up hysteria and fear.

 

https://gothamist.com/news/fema-begin-strategic-drawdown-largely-empty-javits-center-and-usns-comfort

 

 

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Just now, bouhunter said:

WRONG.  The convention center is folding up and was little used.  The Navy hospital ship is pulling up anchor and leaving New York.  No "tents or hotels" since the ship and Javits Center aren't even needed.  I know many vulnerable people have passed and it's sad.  But it's also sad to see unfounded stories used to whip up hysteria and fear.

 

https://gothamist.com/news/fema-begin-strategic-drawdown-largely-empty-javits-center-and-usns-comfort

 

 

I am a essential worker and have been to the Garden State Expo center....I never went to NY   (would do so on a dare)...it may be easing up now, but when I delivered supplies there it was anything but.

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Just b/c there are refrigerated trunks doesn’t mean they are actually filled with bodies.  If NY/NJ is so overrun with Covid-19 patients, why is the USNS Comfort leaving soon?  It was brought in for the anticipated overflow of non-Covid-19 patients b/c the hospitals were going to be overrun with Covid-19 patients.  It even ended up being used to treat a few Covid-19 cases due to the low number of non-Covid patients it received.  
 

As last “Tuesday, the ship -- with 1,000 beds, 12 operating rooms and a medical staff of about 1,000 -- had treated a total of only 179 patients” and a few were for Covid-19.  sourcehttps://www.military.com/daily-news/2020/04/25/underused-comfort-leave-nyc-prepare-another-pandemic-mission-if-needed.html/amp

 

I’ve seen where it is alleged that Covid-19 patients in NYC are being put on a ventilator, are left to die without virtually any other remedies attempted, and the staff seems not to care.  And no, I’m not giving the source on that one.  The patients are by themselves without any family members due to the no visitor policy and sign for the treatment.  Their family members have no clue what is happening.  The no visitor policy seems to have an ulterior purpose.  
 

If it is indeed true about the treatment, then heck yeah the refrigerator boxes will be needed. 

 

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9 hours ago, zonacruiser25 said:

Come on 2021!  We will see a slow but sure return to sailing.  Some will rush to be first in line but most will wait and see.  We will make sure to board with 2 bottles of Champagne and celebrate our next sail away and sunset!

20180409_173058.jpg


sounds good to me. 

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19 hours ago, atgood said:

Here’s an article for good information:

https://idpjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s40249-020-00655-w

 

The article mentions it is estimated that each year, 1 billion cases of symptomatic influenza infection have occurred across the globe, including 3–5 million cases of severe illness and 290,000–650,000 cases of influenza-related respiratory deaths.  
 

Covid-19 has quite a way to go to reach an estimated 1 billion cases annually. 

 

There’s a very informative and recent video out featuring Dr. Dan Erickson and Dr. Artin Massihi, ER doctors in Kern County California.  They present hard data from the front line where they work and talk medical common sense.  There are two parts and they are a little over an hour in total.

 

Part 1:

 

 

Part 2:

 

 

The first video link is no longer working and has been removed on YouTube.  

The full video works at this link:

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17 hours ago, A&L_Ont said:


As it stands yesterday Delta already cancelled our booked flight, with a Credit to be used within 2 years.  There was no cash back offer.  It seems as though this sailing is not meant to be for us. 

You can request a refund Andrew. The airlines have been trying to take advantage of customers and were recently reminded by the DOT: 

DOT clarifies flight refund rules

The US Department of Transportation has today issued an enforcement notice, reminding airlines that they need to refund passengers in the event that their flights are cancelled, or there are significant schedule changes. As the enforcement notice states:

  • The DOT has seen an increase in consumer complaints related to flight refunds
  • Customers are entitled to a cash refund when the airline cancels a scheduled flight or makes a significant schedule change and the passenger chooses not to accept the alternative offered
  • This applies for flights operated by US and foreign airlines to, within, or from the United States
  • Because this is an unprecedented situation, the DOT will exercise enforcement discretion, and will give airlines the opportunity to become compliant before taking further action
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5 hours ago, atgood said:

There’s a very informative and recent video out featuring Dr. Dan Erickson and Dr. Artin Massihi, ER doctors in Kern County California.  They present hard data from the front line where they work and talk medical common sense.  There are two parts and they are a little over an hour in total.

 

Did one of them seriously suggest this was about government control?  I wonder if they think 9/11 is an inside job or if the moon landing was faked. 😃

 

Anyway, I think they may be looking for a job soon:

 

"In a rare statement late today, the American College of Emergency Physicians and the American Academy of Emergency Medicine declared they “emphatically condemn the recent opinions released by Dr. Daniel Erickson and Dr. Artin Messihi. These reckless and untested musings do not speak for medical societies and are inconsistent with current science and epidemiology regarding COVID-19. As owners of local urgent care clinics, it appears these two individuals are releasing biased, non-peer reviewed data to advance their personal financial interests without regard for the public’s health.”

 

https://calmatters.org/health/2020/04/debunking-bakersfield-doctors-covid-spread-conclusions/

 

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It is unfortunate that we as a country were caught with our pants down.  We didn't have any emergency response teams in place.  They were all fired years ago.  We should have taken action early January and had proper PE made immediately.  This cost our nation thousands of lives- and more to come.  So sad. 

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5 hours ago, HBE4 said:

 

Did one of them seriously suggest this was about government control?  I wonder if they think 9/11 is an inside job or if the moon landing was faked. 😃

 

Anyway, I think they may be looking for a job soon:

 

"In a rare statement late today, the American College of Emergency Physicians and the American Academy of Emergency Medicine declared they “emphatically condemn the recent opinions released by Dr. Daniel Erickson and Dr. Artin Messihi. These reckless and untested musings do not speak for medical societies and are inconsistent with current science and epidemiology regarding COVID-19. As owners of local urgent care clinics, it appears these two individuals are releasing biased, non-peer reviewed data to advance their personal financial interests without regard for the public’s health.”

 

https://calmatters.org/health/2020/04/debunking-bakersfield-doctors-covid-spread-conclusions/

 

I notice nowhere in the article are the numbers they used actually refuted with better examples.  They were accused of using numbers not representative of the general population.  It’s an attack on their position for speaking out.  They used the best numbers available to them and provided several examples.  They extrapolated, as the whole population hasn’t been tested.  
 

One of the examples they gave was for NY state.  They actually did not extrapolate on that example to determine the number of positive cases.  They used actual numbers.  256,272 Covid-19 cases (39% of those who were tested for Covid-19).  And with 19,410 Covid-19 deaths (at the time of their video) out of a state population of 19,000,000 which is a chance of dying of 0.1% if you live in NY. 

 

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8 hours ago, Coralc said:

You can request a refund Andrew. The airlines have been trying to take advantage of customers and were recently reminded by the DOT: DOT clarifies flight refund rules

The US Department of Transportation has today issued an enforcement notice, reminding airlines that they need to refund passengers in the event that their flights are cancelled, or there are significant schedule changes. As the enforcement notice states:

The DOT has seen an increase in consumer complaints related to flight refunds

  • Customers are entitled to a cash refund when the airline cancels a scheduled flight or makes a significant schedule change and the passenger chooses not to accept the alternative offered
  • This applies for flights operated by US and foreign airlines to, within, or from the United States

I wonder if this will let us get a refund on a non refundable fare?  Read this yesterday so Norwegian flights to Spain in Oct seem like they will not operate     https://thepointsguy.com/news/norwegian-grounded-ops-april-2021/

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Yes. When Norwegian officially cancels, there will be an option for a refund. How long it takes them to refund remains to be seen. Taking a future travel credit from them would be a bad idea. 

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On 4/27/2020 at 12:27 PM, Mkripke said:

we have decided to look at the Freedom out of San Juan in mid September

 

I am on for B2B in January...still hoping to be able to make that.  Losing hope on the rest of my 2020 booked cruises before that though.  😞  

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17 hours ago, mpaff said:

So a Bayonne cruise on June 29th is a long shot?

 

IMHO...a definite not going to happen..sorry.  😞 

Edited by island lady
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