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27 minutes ago, hdmaninmb said:

...
However, here is the caveat emptor:


"The volume and pace of cash refunds could have a material adverse effect on our liquidity and capital resources." (Page 20 of 10-Q, overemphasis mine). 

 

And remember, as of end of Feb 2020, Carnival had almost $5B of Customer Deposits.....

Hence my prediction of bankruptcy by August, and also my decision to dispute charges with my CC issuer, to (hopefully) quickly secure my full payments before there is nothing left. FWIW, my CC issuers have already posted "temporary credits" of the disputed amounts, while they investigate. I can't foresee any reason why my disputes would fail, because: 1- I did not receive the services I paid for; 2- Carnival conceded to a full refund; and 3- Carnival conceded to zero penalties in the Cancellation Letters they sent us.  So, what possibly could their rebuttal to my disputes be?  "We were gonna give this guy his money back when we have the liquidity, probably in 90 days or so" ain't gonna cut it. 


Couldn't edit last post, but wanted to add the above, italicized text

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14 hours ago, upfee said:

To those of you who disputed the charge, did you start your dispute on-line or did you call?

 

I think it depends on the CC issuer.  I called one of my CC issuers and asked a lot of questions about it.  I submitted the formal dispute on their website.  Then I submitted a dispute on my other CC issuer's website.  Both issuers have posted a temporary credit while they investigate.  I won't disclose the card issuers here, until my disputes are resolved.

On the other hand, a family member acquired a "Carnival Credit Card" (LOL) to pay for their cabin, because of the 0% apr for 6 months, and cash back or "fun points" (or something like that).  They reported to me that they have to call in to file the dispute, or mail some papers to the issuer.  Seems ridiculous to me, so I did some cursory research.  Carnival CC is issued by Barclays Bank. My research suggests that one can, in fact, file a dispute online with that card.  So, I will contact my family member and see if they want to try again...

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Woke up this morning to a payment on my Mastercard! I am not sure if it is a coincidence or not, I did file a dispute, but the payment came from Carnival (dated March 18) for the full amount of my cruise. 

I am inclined to think filing might have given them a nudge!

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9 hours ago, rico said:

My card is Capital One. I have just shy of $6,000 in Carnival charges for a cancelled cruise. I called to file the dispute. Had a good long talk with the rep asking every question I could think of so I could make an educated decision whether to dispute or not. She was extremely helpful and walked me through the three possible ways it could go.

Could you share with the rest of us the three possible ways it could go?

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11 minutes ago, ontheweb said:

Could you share with the rest of us the three possible ways it could go?

Sure.  

After filing the dispute, CapOne grants a provisional credit to the account (mine hit the acct next day) and then they contact Carnival.  Carnival has 90 days to respond.

Possible outcomes:

1) Carnival responds to CapOne and agrees I'm due a refund (even if it will take 90 days) - CapOne immediately makes the provisional credit permanent and then CapOne recovers their money when the Carnival refund comes through.

2) Carnival never responds to CapOne and the 90 days expires - CapOne immediately rules in my favor and the provisional credit becomes permanent.  CapOne then handles with Carnival outside the dispute.

3) Carnival responds and says I'm not due a refund.  CapOne will contact me for supporting documentation.  I have the original cancel email that says they have already refunded my money and it take 5-7 days for it to get to my original form of payment.  I also have the cruise contact stating if canceled 90+ days before sailing, I'm due a refund without penalty charges.  And I have Carnival's email offering the Option 1 FCC or Option 2 100% refund.  CapOne said with all that documentation, they would rule in my favor and immediately make the provisional credit permanent.

 

So for me it was a slam dunk.  Get the money now and not worry about Carnival's financial state or their unreasonable refund timelines.

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7 hours ago, WhaleTailFlCruiser said:


if Carnival is gonna go bankrupt NCL and RCL will go under well before them. Carnival is in the best position and to say they are going to go bankrupt just isn’t true and comes off as fear mongering 

 

Hi 

It's not fear mongering when you try to point out the obvious. That is part of the reason why CCL shares were trading at under $8 coming down from their highs of just over $56.

 

Yes you are correct that NCL an RCL could go before them. That's only because CCL in effect sold of a large part of their assets at a significantly discounted price (if you were confident of future cruising) and went even further in borrowing a massively large amount of money. This is all done at a time when they have no ( 0 ) revenue and have to maintain staff and equipment. So, indeed there are many out there hoping for them to succeed.

 

Very many things need to happen in just the right way for there to be any justification in believing that cruising as we knew it will continue to be a viable industry. 

 

No matter how much we wish and hope for everything to get better, it might not. That is not fear mongering. Ignoring the possibility that there could be one or more failures in this industry would be considered reckless. There is great possibility if you can pick one of these companies for success, just buy your stock now, you could be rewarded. Voluntarily lending any company money at 0 interest, for an unknown period of time would indeed help them possibly get through this, but if the worst happens, you cannot complain after. Just like if you buy the stock and they tank, you could get nothing. Looking at the bigger picture, at this time of crisis, as a choice, if I were going to help someone, I would help a friend not a company.

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13 minutes ago, Nic6318 said:

 

Hi 

It's not fear mongering when you try to point out the obvious. .....

 

No matter how much we wish and hope for everything to get better, it might not. That is not fear mongering. Ignoring the possibility that there could be one or more failures in this industry would be considered reckless. 

I completely agree.  It's not fear mongering.  It's called risk management.  People are free to be warm and fuzzy with Carnival if they wish.  There's been a lot of "just be patient" advice given by some here.  They may just "be patient" right into a bankruptcy filing.  Not a guarantee, but a possibility.  Carnival has no interest in my financial well-being.  That's up to me.  And I'd prefer to take care of my own matters and guard against the unknown than to trust a corporation who will always put themselves before me.

Edited by rico
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19 hours ago, upfee said:

To those of you who disputed the charge, did you start your dispute on-line or did you call?

 

i did it online.  my card issuer's online account management page has a large banner at the top saying to expect long hold times.

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On 4/20/2020 at 10:27 AM, evandbob said:

WSJ today reported that short sellers (those who hope stocks go lower) have drastically increased their position against Carnival, Royal and some hotels. Could this push stock prices down near junk status, making bankruptcy a greater possibility?  Their stock has already taken a vicious beating.  Refunds become non existant if that happens.

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/bets-against-the-stock-market-rise-to-highest-level-in-years/ar-BB12RYPy?li=BBnbfcN

Stock prices themselves have NO impact on liquidity for the company.  You're confusing the cause for the effect.  The CAUSE of the lowering stock prices is because of the lack of cash.  The low stock price does not cause a reduction of cash.

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2 hours ago, buckeyefrank said:

Stock prices themselves have NO impact on liquidity for the company.  You're confusing the cause for the effect.  The CAUSE of the lowering stock prices is because of the lack of cash.  The low stock price does not cause a reduction of cash.


Ever been a CFO of a large corporation trying to secure financing when your common stock was under attack by short raiders?

Me either, but I've owned stock in two such companies.  ONE of them beat the shorts and crushed the attack because they had guts and a metric crap tonne of cash BEFORE the attack.

The second company. not so much.  Their stock went under $5.00; they got delisted; financing dried up, and they wound up being purchased out of bankruptcy.  THOUSANDS got screwed....  About the only folks made whole were the bond holders first in line.

Trust me, the stock price CAN and DOES affect a companies ability to raise private capital.

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  • 1 month later...

Our Cruise was in May, yes it was cancelled. Carnival first said we would have our money back in 30 days. Then 60 days, then we would have it in 90 days. When we called, they said they did not know our money would be returned, but every one was working hard to return our money. When I was an officer in the military we had a saying, " Winners have solutions Loosers have excuses". We called the c c c ,they said that they have heard our problem 4 million times. We have 2 Years to put in  a dispute. Carnival did not play fair with me, nor did the travel agent . YES, put in a dispute, before they go bankrupt. To take advantage of a 100% disabled veteran  is not right.  Play fair we have made Carnival money. Sorry, but I hope they rot in hell.

Edited by CPT Joe
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1 hour ago, CPT Joe said:

Our Cruise was in May, yes it was cancelled. Carnival first said we would have our money back in 30 days. Then 60 days, then we would have it in 90 days. When we called, they said they did not know our money would be returned, but every one was working hard to return our money. When I was an officer in the military we had a saying, " Winners have solutions Loosers have excuses". We called the c c c ,they said that they have heard our problem 4 million times. We have 2 Years to put in  a dispute. Carnival did not play fair with me, nor did the travel agent . YES, put in a dispute, before they go bankrupt. To take advantage of a 100% disabled veteran  is not right.  Play fair we have made Carnival money. Sorry, but I hope they rot in hell.

Cap'n, you did the right thing for you. I pray you get your refund 100%. And thank you for your service. 

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  • 3 weeks later...
On 4/18/2020 at 5:00 AM, Rudyard said:

Carnival has said from the beginning that it could take up to 90 days. They've never tried to hide that as far as I can see. I rolled my cancelled cruise fare over into another cruise but would love to get my excursion and fun shop payments back but it's only been just over 30 days so I'm being patient and hoping they get around to it sooner than later. 

 

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