Do you REALLY think we'll be cruising this year?

[Bo1953]

On 4/21/2020 at 11:21 AM, MarkWiltonM said:

I have to admit I've been pretty depressed not being able to look forward to my next cruise. I have two scheduled, in Jan. 2021 and Jan. 2022, but I'm not optimistic I'll be able to go on either. I do not believe cruising is likely to be viable for a lot of us for a long time.  As you probably know, even when social distancing measures are slowly rolled back, most epidemiologists believe there will be numerous waves of the virus resurfacing, with new social distancing measures reintroduced as needed.  This is expected to go on until there is a widely available vaccine.  (I read recently that the fastest vaccine developed so far was four years, for mumps.)  My greatest concern, even if I were to learn that I have immunity to the virus, is that if I am on a cruise and someone develops symptoms that suggest COVID-19, we could be stranded at sea just as several ships were recently when denied access to ports to disembark passengers.  At the very least, cruise lines will have to have the ability to test quickly and accurately, and they will have to have arrangements already in place with countries on how to handle disembarkations when there are COVID-19 cases on board. I think it's going to be a long, slow process for cruise lines, with passengers and crew from many different countries on every ship, to work out these arrangements with all the various countries where they have ports of call. And few of us will be willing to sail if a wonderful two-week cruise could possibly turn into a four-week or longer imprisonment with no means of escape. This is completely separate from whatever dangers there may be of contracting the virus on board. I hope I'm wrong!

I do apologize that I completely mis-interpreted your thread title.... how crazy of me,

 

I can say, now, that you are not anticipating on sailing this year and the title was not directed at my sailing anticipation and plans.

 

I do apologize.

 

In health and bon voyage

[zap99]

8 hours ago, zitsky said:

 

Viking is doing Mississippi river cruises.  Seems pretty safe to me.  Nice and local.

Not that local if you live in England.😁

[Bo1953]

3 minutes ago, zap99 said:

Not that local if you live in England.😁

True dat, true dat!!!

 

bon voyage

[farawayatsea]

36 minutes ago, zap99 said:

Not that local if you live in England.😁

I do not think you would want to go to the US anyway which is now the global centre of the epidemic with trends upwards.  It strange the way the things have turned around with the Far East now a far safer bet for cruising with the countries there having managed the epidemic far more effectively than Europe and even more so than the US which is comparison seems to be a total disaster.  

[zap99]

10 minutes ago, farawayatsea said:

I do not think you would want to go to the US anyway which is now the global centre of the epidemic with trends upwards.  It strange the way the things have turned around with the Far East now a far safer bet for cruising with the countries there having managed the epidemic far more effectively than Europe and even more so than the US which is comparison seems to be a total disaster.  

Not right now, but hopefully soon. Was of to Alaska in June, oh well!!

[drlucy12]

27 minutes ago, farawayatsea said:

I do not think you would want to go to the US anyway which is now the global centre of the epidemic with trends upwards.  It strange the way the things have turned around with the Far East now a far safer bet for cruising with the countries there having managed the epidemic far more effectively than Europe and even more so than the US which is comparison seems to be a total disaster.  

I am not sure I trust the numbers coming out of China.  Other countries in Asia yes, but not China.  

[Cruise a holic]

49 minutes ago, zap99 said:

Not right now, but hopefully soon. Was of to Alaska in June, oh well!!

Unfortunately we didn't step up to the plate quickly enough so the virus had an opportunity to spread like wildfire- if we go back too soon it could be worse.  We all have to sit tight and practice social distancing for now.  I hope that we have a solid treatment and vaccine soon. 

[ECCruise]

2 hours ago, Cruise a holic said:

Unfortunately we didn't step up to the plate quickly enough so the virus had an opportunity to spread like wildfire- if we go back too soon it could be worse.  We all have to sit tight and practice social distancing for now.  I hope that we have a solid treatment and vaccine soon. 

True.

And we have a number of US states who have graciously volunteered to be the first guinea pigs going forward.  It will tell a great deal about the direction going forward. 

[phoenix_dream]

8 hours ago, Charles4515 said:

 

Need to verify but it was posted on another thread that those Mississippi River cruises are between $500 and $600 per person a night.


Sent from my iPhone using Forums

 

Don't know the exact cost, but yes, river cruises in the US are insanely expensive.  I have priced out several over the years but I can do 3 Caribbean cruises in Aqua Class for the cost of one US river cruise generally speaking.

[TeeRick]

20 hours ago, Happy Cruiser 6143 said:

 

You may be required to wear masks in the grocery store in Pennsylvania, but I assure you that is not a requirement for the USA as a whole.  No such requirement here.  Also, please see recent information from Dr. Michael Osterholm, an infectious disease specialist, who states that homemade masks provide no protection against the droplets in the air because they are not airtight.

Yes I know this all too well.  But we are absolutely required by governor's mandate to wear masks- any masks- to the few places we are allowed to go here.  It is supposed to help protect others near us.  Not ourselves.  This is being advised by the CDC.  Not all states are following this.  And of course the proper medical masks are not available.  So cloth face masks or cheap surgical masks are what people are using here.  If you can find any.  It really is just a joke to require masks that are not protective and that are not available.  

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/cloth-face-cover.html

[tosteve1]

56 minutes ago, phoenix_dream said:

Don't know the exact cost, but yes, river cruises in the US are insanely expensive.  I have priced out several over the years but I can do 3 Caribbean cruises in Aqua Class for the cost of one US river cruise generally speaking.

We priced a river cruise on the Columbia a couple years ago and were shocked. Bit the bullet and did a Rhône cruise last year which was at least five times as expensive as our recent Caribbean cruise. 

[TeeRick]

4 hours ago, farawayatsea said:

I do not think you would want to go to the US anyway which is now the global centre of the epidemic with trends upwards.  It strange the way the things have turned around with the Far East now a far safer bet for cruising with the countries there having managed the epidemic far more effectively than Europe and even more so than the US which is comparison seems to be a total disaster.  

USA not a total disaster.  It started here later than in China and Europe.  The predominant East Coast virus came from Italy.  Our curve will flatten and the virus will dissipate just like everywhere else. Many many parts of the US have very little virus around.  Remove nursing homes/assisted living facilities from the picture.  And try not to focus on the worldwide media attention to the NYC area which is bad but not indicative of most of the USA.  Community transmission has slowed dramatically.   It is happening.  Don't despair.  Really. 

[tserface]

I figure either cruising will reopen within some reasonable amount of time in some form, or it won't ever reopen at the level it's been because the cruise lines can't afford to go indefinitely without income.  On the other hand, there are some huge, incredible, ships available and you'd think someone will step up and use them in some capacity.  It just may not be what we're used to.  We're hoping, without any real knowledge, that we can go by next April, but we'll just have to wait and see.  

 

I can't imagine cruising will go away totally and forever, but it will be interesting to see how it recovers and evolves.  It's very likely that most of us die-hard fans will continue to love it regardless.

[Cruise a holic]

Just heard the NCL is going bankrupt.  Perhaps others soon.

[TeeRick]

Just now, Cruise a holic said:

Just heard the NCL is going bankrupt.  Perhaps others soon.

There are threads on this topic on the NCL board.  They have absolutely not declared bankruptcy.  They filed a required report with the SEC and raised doubts about the future.   They might in the future like other cruise lines file for bankruptcy but not yet.  They are raising cash to keep going.  

[tserface]

3 minutes ago, Cruise a holic said:

Just heard the NCL is going bankrupt.  Perhaps others soon.

 

This is sad news, although, we've never sailed NCL.  I expect some other companies to declare bankruptcy of some sort since that will allow them to get out of a lot of debts.  This may cause some near term ill-will, but people forget eventually and it will allow them to stay in business.  So, a bankruptcy may not always be a bad thing from the companies perspective.

 

Of course, negative press like what CNN is giving NCL in this case, only causes people to be more afraid to book and hurts the company even more.

[drlucy12]

1 minute ago, tserface said:

I figure either cruising will reopen within some reasonable amount of time in some form, or it won't ever reopen at the level it's been because the cruise lines can't afford to go indefinitely without income.  On the other hand, there are some huge, incredible, ships available and you'd think someone will step up and use them in some capacity.  It just may not be what we're used to.  We're hoping, without any real knowledge, that we can go by next April, but we'll just have to wait and see.  

 

I can't imagine cruising will go away totally and forever, but it will be interesting to see how it recovers and evolves.  It's very likely that most of us die-hard fans will continue to love it regardless.

I have never been a fan of the mega ships.  5000 people on a ship, even before coronavirus, was never a good idea in my book.  It may evolve into a situation where the smaller ships survive and the mega ships do not - however, what will that do for pricing? I think the cruise industry will definitely change over the next few years but how, which cruise lines will survive, etc....even the cruise execs do not know.  

[Cruise a holic]

2 minutes ago, tserface said:

 

This is sad news, although, we've never sailed NCL.  I expect some other companies to declare bankruptcy of some sort since that will allow them to get out of a lot of debts.  This may cause some near term ill-will, but people forget eventually and it will allow them to stay in business.  So, a bankruptcy may not always be a bad thing from the companies perspective.

 

Of course, negative press like what CNN is giving NCL in this case, only causes people to be more afraid to book and hurts the company even more.

 

Edited May 6, 2020 by Cruise a holic

[tserface]

1 minute ago, TeeRick said:

There are threads on this topic on the NCL board.  They have absolutely not declared bankruptcy.  They filed a required report with the SEC and raised doubts about the future.   They might in the future like other cruise lines file for bankruptcy but not yet.  They are raising cash to keep going.  

 

I know this is not the NCL forum, but this type of reporting is happening for all of the cruise lines.  This is how the news media reports these things...

"Norwegian Cruise Lines may go out of business..." as the headline.

Then they continue in the article to say that they are raising funds, and looking forward to the future.  Unfortunately, many people don't get past the sensationalist headlines 😞

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/05/business/norwegian-cruise-line/index.html

I guess it wouldn't have sold as many clicks if they'd said:

"Norwegian Cruise Line looking for ways to continue and expand business..."

[yorky]

9 minutes ago, Cruise a holic said:

Just heard the NCL is going bankrupt.  Perhaps others soon.

Where did you see that ?

[Cruise a holic]

Just now, tserface said:

 

I know this is not the NCL forum, but this type of reporting is happening for all of the cruise lines.  This is how the news media reports these things...

"Norwegian Cruise Lines may go out of business..." as the headline.

Then they continue in the article to say that they are raising funds, and looking forward to the future.  Unfortunately, many people don't get past the sensationalist headlines 😞

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/05/business/norwegian-cruise-line/index.html

I guess it wouldn't have sold as many clicks if they'd said:

"Norwegian Cruise Line looking for ways to continue and expand business..."

However, not a good thing.    Carnival is the owner of NCL and they just might cut some of the ships/lines from their portfolio- a fact for now.

 

We should all be aware of this possibility as each cruise line/ship might be vulnerable.

[tserface]

3 minutes ago, drlucy12 said:

I have never been a fan of the mega ships.  5000 people on a ship, even before coronavirus, was never a good idea in my book.  It may evolve into a situation where the smaller ships survive and the mega ships do not - however, what will that do for pricing? I think the cruise industry will definitely change over the next few years but how, which cruise lines will survive, etc....even the cruise execs do not know.  

 

It's likely that, in the short term at least, the demand for cruising will decrease so maybe the smaller ships have a better chance of making a go of it.  However, the big ships still exist and unless they just park them somewhere and use them hotels, they will need to be doing something.  It will be interesting to see how it all works out. 

Most of the cruise lines seem to be just going forward as if there's some switch that will flip to put everything back to normal. We can hope.

[TeeRick]

There is a difference in the media picking up a story saying " NCL going bankrupt" vs the reality of NCL actually declaring bankruptcy - which has not happened.  In fact the media could rightly say that RCCL and CCL are "going bankrupt" too.  None of these companies are in good shape and all are securing loans and offerings to keep going.  

[davekathy]

3 minutes ago, Cruise a holic said:

Carnival is the owner of NCL...

Carnival is not the owner of NCL. 

[drlucy12]

2 minutes ago, tserface said:

 

It's likely that, in the short term at least, the demand for cruising will decrease so maybe the smaller ships have a better chance of making a go of it.  However, the big ships still exist and unless they just park them somewhere and use them hotels, they will need to be doing something.  It will be interesting to see how it all works out. 

Most of the cruise lines seem to be just going forward as if there's some switch that will flip to put everything back to normal. We can hope.

I agree - what do you do with the big ships? 

 

However, the cruise lines have very limited amount of revenue coming in right now....what is right balance between passenger safety and starting back? Carnivals approach - limited sailings? RC and Celebrity have not released any other info, other than the changes to Cruise with Confidence.