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BermudaBound2014

Italy and Spain: Reopen travel March 31, 2021

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There is a lot of conflicting research emerging. As a USA citizen I am taking corona virus seriously, but I am also concerned about authoritarian policies and I'm getting absolutely terrified of the economic ramifications. Something has to give.

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1 hour ago, travelberlin said:

Today on RAI 1, it was announced that Italy will open Bars, Restaurants and Hotels on June 1st.

 

 

I just did a search. I take it rai 1 is a television station? If so, what program was this announcment made on? I am trying to find the transcript but having no luck and I can't find any other sites to confirm this information.

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Posted (edited)
26 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

I just did a search. I take it rai 1 is a television station? If so, what program was this announcment made on? I am trying to find the transcript but having no luck and I can't find any other sites to confirm this information.

The one who did the announcement was Conte. It was in several European news. RAI 1 is a TV channel in Italy. 
 

It is also on bbc

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52435273

Edited by travelberlin

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IMO, travel will reopen as soon as the big countries are clear. And, the countries whose leaders have the strongest approval from their populace will stay the course and do it right.

 

Merkel at 79% approval and PM Conte at 71%. So, I have hope for Northern Europe and eventually Europe in general.

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/sergeiklebnikov/2020/04/18/most-world-leaders-see-approval-ratings-surge-amid-coronavirus-not-trump/#4c48432fe5a0

 

 

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All of these reports of tourism not returning for 12 to 18 months are getting ridiculous.  As always, we humans will adapt to the new circumstances we find ourselves in.  COVID-19 isn't going anywhere for a while (probably for years).  Even if there is a vaccine, not everyone on the planet will take it.  As time goes on, we will learn  how to better treat people with severe cases and the case mortality rate for this will drop.   We may need to keep older/high-risk populations protected until they can be given a vaccine.  As better serology testing data is released, we will also understand just how many people around the world have already had it (many people not even knowing they had it in the past).  Initial indications point to many more cases (at least 10 and up to 50 times more) than have been reported.  The point is, things will change and science and technology will offer us solutions in the coming months.  

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2 hours ago, Fredric22 said:

As better serology testing data is released, we will also understand just how many people around the world have already had it (many people not even knowing they had it in the past).  Initial indications point to many more cases (at least 10 and up to 50 times more) than have been reported.  

 

 

Have to be careful about the antibody tests. Current tests are not reliable. Not able to differentiate between COVID19 and the other multitude of coronavirus. The best measure remains mass testing of a large part of the population.

 

 

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7 minutes ago, HappyInVan said:

 

 

Have to be careful about the antibody tests. Current tests are not reliable. Not able to differentiate between COVID19 and the other multitude of coronavirus. The best measure remains mass testing of a large part of the population.

 

 

Many tests are not reliable, but the FDA approved ones are reliable.  All current studies have included a margin of error based on independent review of testing.  Basically, they test a whole bunch of blood samples from before the COVID-19 outbreak and then see how many false positives there are.  In the recent CA study, out of about 400 samples, there were 2 false positives.  They they use that as their margin of error rate.  Testing a population only gives you the number of current cases.  That isn't really that useful since you have no idea how many people have had it in the past.  Knowing how many people have had it is good for 2 reasons: you know how much of your population may have antibodies and you also get a better idea of the fatality rate.  

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1 hour ago, Fredric22 said:

In the recent CA study, out of about 400 samples, there were 2 false positives.  

 

Can you provide a link to that study?

 

We should not ignore the results from mass RNA testing. In this Italian village, mass testing in late Feb  found just 3% infected. Followed by another round of testing in March. Much larger sample size than 400.

 

https://nationalpost.com/news/world/how-an-experiment-helped-one-italian-town-find-submerged-infections-cut-new-covid-19-cases-to-zero

 

I often cite the success of South Korea. Acting early, the Koreans were able to conduct 60 tests for every positive result. That's pretty thorough. In addition, they were able to confine the disease largely to Daegu city. 2/3 of the infected come from just Daegu city. So, they were able to pour medical resources into a mid size city.

 

My guesstimate is that the Koreans were able to test up to 10% of the City's population. That's a pretty big sample.

 

https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a30402000000&bid=0030

 

The advantage of RNA mass testing is that you get intelligence on a real time basis. Whereas, anti-body testing reveals history (maybe).

 

IMO, the anti-body tests used to compute the fatality rate is a red herring. We're getting indications that there are serious morbidity issues even for the young...

 

"‘I underestimated this virus’: Vancouver nurse on recovering from COVID-19"

 

https://globalnews.ca/news/6865008/vancouver-nurse-covid-19-recovery/

 

Even if COVID19 is as benign as the seasonal flu (it is not), the mass infection of so many people would result in the collapse of the medical system. You would end up applying early 20th Century medical technology. Perhaps with the same results as the Spanish Flu...

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

 

 

 

 

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28 minutes ago, HappyInVan said:

 

Can you provide a link to that study?

 

We should not ignore the results from mass RNA testing. In this Italian village, mass testing in late Feb  found just 3% infected. Followed by another round of testing in March. Much larger sample size than 400.

 

https://nationalpost.com/news/world/how-an-experiment-helped-one-italian-town-find-submerged-infections-cut-new-covid-19-cases-to-zero

 

I often cite the success of South Korea. Acting early, the Koreans were able to conduct 60 tests for every positive result. That's pretty thorough. In addition, they were able to confine the disease largely to Daegu city. 2/3 of the infected come from just Daegu city. So, they were able to pour medical resources into a mid size city.

 

My guesstimate is that the Koreans were able to test up to 10% of the City's population. That's a pretty big sample.

 

https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a30402000000&bid=0030

 

The advantage of RNA mass testing is that you get intelligence on a real time basis. Whereas, anti-body testing reveals history (maybe).

 

IMO, the anti-body tests used to compute the fatality rate is a red herring. We're getting indications that there are serious morbidity issues even for the young...

 

"‘I underestimated this virus’: Vancouver nurse on recovering from COVID-19"

 

https://globalnews.ca/news/6865008/vancouver-nurse-covid-19-recovery/

 

Even if COVID19 is as benign as the seasonal flu (it is not), the mass infection of so many people would result in the collapse of the medical system. You would end up applying early 20th Century medical technology. Perhaps with the same results as the Spanish Flu...

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

 

 

 

 

Thank you for your response.  You can easily google recent serology testing information in New York State, Santa Clara, CA, Los Angeles, CA, and Boston, MA.  There is plenty of information about how each of these tests were conducted along with the margins of error involved.  Governor Cuomo released data on Saturday that suggests about 20% of people living in NYC have had COVID-19.  As far as "we are getting indications that there are serious morbidity issues, even for the young", that is simply not what the data says.  While there have been deaths in every age group, the vast majority of deaths are those with underlying health conditions and those who are over the age of 60.  If you take a look at the morbidity data from any country, including Italy, the US, China, etc. you will find the same results.  This virus is not changing who it kills.  Viruses just don't decide one day that they are going to act differently.  With that said, it is true that everyone can be affected from this virus, including the young.  This is why everyone should continue to take necessary precautions. 

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1 hour ago, Fredric22 said:

Thank you for your response.  You can easily google recent serology testing information in New York State, Santa Clara, CA, Los Angeles, CA, and Boston, MA.  There is plenty of information about how each of these tests were conducted along with the margins of error involved.  Governor Cuomo released data on Saturday that suggests about 20% of people living in NYC have had COVID-19.  As far as "we are getting indications that there are serious morbidity issues, even for the young", that is simply not what the data says.  While there have been deaths in every age group, the vast majority of deaths are those with underlying health conditions and those who are over the age of 60.  If you take a look at the morbidity data from any country, including Italy, the US, China, etc. you will find the same results.  This virus is not changing who it kills.  Viruses just don't decide one day that they are going to act differently.  With that said, it is true that everyone can be affected from this virus, including the young.  This is why everyone should continue to take necessary precautions. 

 

Being from NYC itself, when do you expect international tourists to be allowed to return to New York?

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11 minutes ago, amurray88 said:

 

Being from NYC itself, when do you expect international tourists to be allowed to return to New York?

International travel is a tough one... first we need to get domestic travel to resume.  I would say international travel (from certain countries) may start picking up by the end of the summer (Aug or Sept.).. but that is just my guess. 

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17 minutes ago, Fredric22 said:

International travel is a tough one... first we need to get domestic travel to resume.  I would say international travel (from certain countries) may start picking up by the end of the summer (Aug or Sept.).. but that is just my guess. 

 

So I'm guessing my trip in June might not go ahead 😂

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There are reports in today's British press that a plan to reopen European countries for tourism is being worked up by the EU.

 

Spain appear to be easing their lockdown in stages, each one two weeks apart.

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I would not think that will be enough to allow cruising to begin.

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2 hours ago, Sancho_proudfoot said:

Greece has stated today that the Greek Islands will reopen to tourists this summer, probably in July.

All well and good assuming there are flights available and for the UK the FCO travel advice has been removed!

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If there are any airlines left flying after this I'm sure the prices will be going up to try and claw back the losses!

were still waiting a large sum back from Emirates 40 days after claim although they assure me it's being processed!!

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Posted (edited)

BB ... The Foreign and Commonwealth Office have issued travel advice that for an indefinite period people in the UK should avoid all foreign travel except for an Emergency.

Should anyone travel the likelihood is that Travel Insurance would be void due to ignoring the FCO advice.

Anyone returning to the UK will now have to Quarantine for 14 days, something that should have been done two months ago.

Edited by sidari

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Posted (edited)
14 hours ago, sidari said:

BB ... The Foreign and Commonwealth Office have issued travel advice that for an indefinite period people in the UK should avoid all foreign travel except for an Emergency.

Should anyone travel the likelihood is that Travel Insurance would be void due to ignoring the FCO advice.

Anyone returning to the UK will now have to Quarantine for 14 days, something that should have been done two months ago.

 

Where did you see this? That's not what it currently says on the gov.uk page.

Edited by Bobal

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6 hours ago, Bobal said:

 

Where did you see this? That's not what it currently says on the gov.uk page.

The info was given by the Government about 5 days ago re those coming back into the UK.

 

https://www.gov.uk/foreign-travel-advice

 

COVID-19 Exceptional Travel Advisory Notice

As countries respond to the COVID-19 pandemic, including travel and border restrictions, the FCO advises British nationals against all but essential international travel. Any country or area may restrict travel without notice. If you live in the UK and are currently travelling abroad, you are strongly advised to return now, where and while there are still commercial routes available. Many airlines are suspending flights and many airports are closing, preventing flights from leaving.

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