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How confident would you be? May 2021


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20 hours ago, Crazy planning mom said:

If sailings resume in the Caribbean but not Alaska the cruise lines will stay afloat.

With most North American cruise line dedicating more than 50% of their ships and schedule in 2021 to Alaska, how many ships exactly do you think can sail in the off season summer Caribbean and fill cabins, and how many people do think are going to rush to book 100 degree summer cruises in the humid Caribbean in July ... Sorry the Caribbean or Europe won't save the cruise industry, if there's no Alaska season in 2021

 

At some point the cruise lines, as with the entire travel industry this year and next, it will come down to " do or die,  sail or sink,  fly or fail"... Just no sugar coating it the clock is ticking.

 

YMMV

Srpilo

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Canada has now extended the cruise ship ban to the end of February 2021; timing is getting tighter and tighter on there being an Alaska cruise season.  Quite frankly I would not be booking anything unless I had 100% guarantee that I could get all of my money back.

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On ‎10‎/‎30‎/‎2020 at 9:18 AM, cruiseryyc said:

Canada has now extended the cruise ship ban to the end of February 2021; timing is getting tighter and tighter on there being an Alaska cruise season.  Quite frankly I would not be booking anything unless I had 100% guarantee that I could get all of my money back.

We made a deposit for a May 22 Alaska cruise.  Not holding our breath, but our deposit is 100% refundable.

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We've bailed on the 2021 Alaska season. Just moved our booking today, to an end-season 2022 sailing. The Encore's last RT out of Seattle October 16-23, then B2B with the Pacific Coast / Mexican Rivera / Central America / Panama Canal / Miami 10/23 through 11/13. Two years from now, I plan to be scuba diving in Acapulco, just 2 weeks after Salmon bake at the Taku Glacier Lodge outside Juneau!

 

Yes, I choose to believe right now all those things will still be possible. Still, I've only risked $500 so far and will probably hold full payment until the last minute :-)  -- and it gives us 42 paychecks to save, instead of 12 or so....

 

I think I'm as excited about this cruise as I was about the first one, 2016, for our 25th anniversary.

Edited by plainsstormchaser
add dates for SEA-MIA sailing
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2 minutes ago, plainsstormchaser said:

We've bailed on the 2021 Alaska season. Just moved our booking today, to an end-season 2022 sailing. The Encore's last RT out of Seattle October 16-23, then B2B with the Pacific Coast / Mexican Rivera / Central America / Panama Canal / Miami 10/23 through 11/13. Two years from now, I plan to be scuba diving in Acapulco, just 2 weeks after Salmon bake at the Taku Glacier Lodge outside Juneau!

 

Yes, I choose to believe right now all those things will still be possible. Still, I've only risked $500 so far and will probably hold full payment until the last minute 🙂 -- and it gives us 42 paychecks to save, instead of 12 or so....

 

I think I'm as excited about this cruise as I was about the first one, 2016, for our 25th anniversary.

We have already sailed to Alaska 4 times before (we have 30+ cruises under our belts).  We were offered a casino rate for May in Alaska, so we made a full refundable deposit.  Final payment not due until February, so if we think it's not going to happen, we will get our deposit back.  Otherwise, we have 3 other cruises that we have made deposits on and will wait and see - 2 late September Mediterranean cruises and one Antarctica cruise for January 2022.  We cancelled two big cruises in 2020, so if we wait until 2022, that's okay too.  There is still a lot of the USA we want to see.

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There were two things that cinched it for me: final payment due date = date Canada will decide whether ships can enter, and CDC 7-day max length means they have to cut something out to make the 9 day round trip conform. 

 

Not second guessing you, just saying what my calculus is....

Edited by plainsstormchaser
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3 minutes ago, plainsstormchaser said:

There were two things that cinched it for me: final payment due date = date Canada will decide whether ships can enter, and CDC 7-day max length means they have to cut something out to make the 9 day round trip conform. 

 

Not second guessing you, just saying what my calculus is....

Yes indeed.  I saw that Canada is still closing it's borders to cruising until March.  May 22 is still a long way off.  A few of the cruises we already have booked were moved from our 2020 cancelled dates.

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  • 3 weeks later...

Now with vaccines on the way, how does this change the likelihood of a 2021 season?

I would say there is a good chance of a season happening now.  Do you think there will be a full season or perhaps a delayed shortened season?  Do you think there will still be sailings from Seward and Whittier or only Seattle/ Vancouver roundtrips?

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I wish I could rub a magic lamp and have all the answers but that would be unrealistic given so many unknowns that have yet to be answered.  For us, we have a 14 and a 7 day 2021 cruise to Alaska that we rebooked when our 2020 Alaskan cruises were cancelled.  Our 14 day is in July and our 7 day is in August.  We pushed the dates back as far as we could thinking that things might change by then.  However, as I mentioned above, there are still a lot of unknowns.  Even if a vaccine is available shortly, we don't know when we would be able to get it.  We live in California and our governor has ideas of his own:  independent panel review of the vaccine facts BEFORE state-wide distribution.  I believe I read some where that there are a few other governors that might be going that same route.  Is it legal?  Who knows and my comments are not meant for political purposes/replies, just FYI.  Another issue to consider is whether or not Canada will open up to cruise ships.  If they don't, then we are dead in the water again. 

 

Since our two cruises are basically paid for with Future Cruise Credit and no actual cash layout, we are just going to let things ride and see what the final outcome is.  We truly hope everyone gets to cruise again in 2021.

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We are the same as you - had transferred cruise to July 2021 from 2020. But our TA says we are able to transfer again to 2022 at no cost if we do it before March, so once the 2022 dates come out I probably will.  

 

There is a list of who is prioritised to get the vaccine in England and I am in group No: 8, and my husband I think is No: 9 or 10. In fact I will probably be over 65 before I get the vaccine - which will be given first to the over 65s!

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On 11/18/2020 at 8:00 AM, Crazy planning mom said:

Now with vaccines on the way, how does this change the likelihood of a 2021 season?

I would say there is a good chance of a season happening now.  Do you think there will be a full season or perhaps a delayed shortened season?  Do you think there will still be sailings from Seward and Whittier or only Seattle/ Vancouver roundtrips?

 

 

you get to be the first in line for a vaccine?

my Alaskan towns are first in line for a vaccine to protect us from you?

 

time to build more torres ...............

 

 

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On 11/18/2020 at 1:30 PM, Italy52 said:

I wish I could rub a magic lamp and have all the answers but that would be unrealistic given so many unknowns that have yet to be answered.  For us, we have a 14 and a 7 day 2021 cruise to Alaska that we rebooked when our 2020 Alaskan cruises were cancelled.  Our 14 day is in July and our 7 day is in August.  We pushed the dates back as far as we could thinking that things might change by then.  However, as I mentioned above, there are still a lot of unknowns.  Even if a vaccine is available shortly, we don't know when we would be able to get it.  We live in California and our governor has ideas of his own:  independent panel review of the vaccine facts BEFORE state-wide distribution.  I believe I read some where that there are a few other governors that might be going that same route.  Is it legal?  Who knows and my comments are not meant for political purposes/replies, just FYI.  Another issue to consider is whether or not Canada will open up to cruise ships.  If they don't, then we are dead in the water again. 

 

Since our two cruises are basically paid for with Future Cruise Credit and no actual cash layout, we are just going to let things ride and see what the final outcome is.  We truly hope everyone gets to cruise again in 2021.

It is absolutely not legal.  And if you want it, get it.  Its your decision.

 

 

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15 hours ago, bottom-dragger said:

 

 

you get to be the first in line for a vaccine?

my Alaskan towns are first in line for a vaccine to protect us from you?

 

time to build more torres ...............

 

 

Not very welcoming.  Are you saying ask who needs to be protected?

We all do.  No place is safe.  I am not saying tourists have to be first at all but Dr. Fauci

seems optimistic that most of the US can be vaccinated spring or early summer.

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On 11/22/2020 at 7:15 AM, Crazy planning mom said:

Not very welcoming.  Are you saying ask who needs to be protected?

We all do.  No place is safe.  I am not saying tourists have to be first at all but Dr. Fauci

seems optimistic that most of the US can be vaccinated spring or early summer.

 

tough to be welcoming when polls ( I know, they're polls) taken after the announcement of 2 vaccines with ~95% of some sort of benefit report over 40% saying they will not take the vaccine.

 

we also do not build up herd immunities from routine contact with large and varied numbers of people. We will get slammed in January from flu/cough/cold germs that are brought in by visitors or brought back from those traveling south. This is routine. Don't need to add Covid to the stew.

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On 10/22/2020 at 10:02 AM, Italy52 said:

.  Unfortunately, I live in California and our governor will not allow distribution of the shot until his independent task force deems it safe for use.   I

The state is approving about as fast as the FDA, they are working on it simultaneously. Healthcare workers in December, then medically needed and front line workers. It will still take months to secure, distribute and schedule vaccinations on a mass scale.

 

"The state's scientific safety review workgroup has already reviewed the Phase I and II study data on both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines and will be able to review the Phase III data close to when the FDA and CDC receive information to expedite the review and avoid any delay."

 

https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/Newsom-vaccine-California-Pfizer-when-available-15748964.php

Edited by AlanF65
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53 minutes ago, bottom-dragger said:

 

tough to be welcoming when polls ( I know, they're polls) taken after the announcement of 2 vaccines with ~95% of some sort of benefit report over 40% saying they will not take the vaccine.

 

we also do not build up herd immunities from routine contact with large and varied numbers of people. We will get slammed in January from flu/cough/cold germs that are brought in by visitors or brought back from those traveling south. This is routine. Don't need to add Covid to the stew.

 

You should have added one more thing on why we should keep out of AK for the sake of the Alaskans.  Many Alaskans live in smaller or really small towns with limited or in some cases very limited medical facilities.  I would assume that for serious problems, you have to be flown to Anchorage.  If those of us from the lower 48 selfishly infect you, then we go home leaving the Alaskans to deal with the problems.

 

Not good for you.

 

DON

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2 minutes ago, AlanF65 said:

The state is approving about as fast as the FDA, they are working on it simultaneously. Helatcare workers in December, then medically needed and front line workers. It will still take months to secure, distribute and schedule vaccinations.

 

"The state's scientific safety review workgroup has already reviewed the Phase I and II study data on both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines and will be able to review the Phase III data close to when the FDA and CDC receive information to expedite the review and avoid any delay."

 

https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/Newsom-vaccine-California-Pfizer-when-available-15748964.php

Thanks, Alan.  Unfortunately, I don't have much faith in our governor.  Both my husband and I are seniors and will just wait until we are told it is our turn for the vaccine.

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1 hour ago, Italy52 said:

Thanks, Alan.  Unfortunately, I don't have much faith in our governor.  Both my husband and I are seniors and will just wait until we are told it is our turn for the vaccine.

I don't have much faith in him either but the plan is moving forward and vaccines will be distributed not  much longer after FDA approval. It will still be awhile to get them out to everyone.

A-

 

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3 hours ago, donaldsc said:

 

You should have added one more thing on why we should keep out of AK for the sake of the Alaskans.  Many Alaskans live in smaller or really small towns with limited or in some cases very limited medical facilities.  I would assume that for serious problems, you have to be flown to Anchorage.  If those of us from the lower 48 selfishly infect you, then we go home leaving the Alaskans to deal with the problems.

 

Not good for you.

 

DON

Well, I cannot reschedule to 2022 so I will go but be sure to socially distance as well as get the shot as soon as I can.

Edited by Crazy planning mom
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4 hours ago, bottom-dragger said:

 

tough to be welcoming when polls ( I know, they're polls) taken after the announcement of 2 vaccines with ~95% of some sort of benefit report over 40% saying they will not take the vaccine.

 

we also do not build up herd immunities from routine contact with large and varied numbers of people. We will get slammed in January from flu/cough/cold germs that are brought in by visitors or brought back from those traveling south. This is routine. Don't need to add Covid to the stew.

Maybe, Alaska can mandate that out of state travelers have the vaccine.

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20 hours ago, donaldsc said:

 

You should have added one more thing on why we should keep out of AK for the sake of the Alaskans.  Many Alaskans live in smaller or really small towns with limited or in some cases very limited medical facilities.  I would assume that for serious problems, you have to be flown to Anchorage.  If those of us from the lower 48 selfishly infect you, then we go home leaving the Alaskans to deal with the problems.

 

Not good for you.

 

DON

 hey DON. plus one for you

 

a medevac to Seattle or Anchorage (weather depends on which way you fly)  is about $10k. I don't think you get complimentary drinks or snacks  ..... 

 

check your insurance, travel by your heath provider is  typically not included.

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