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Cruises Cancelled Through End of June


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It's interesting to read the financials.  Carnival discussed layup scenarios in their filing as they sought to sell stock, but refused further questions during the quiet period, of course.  Saga also mentioned prolonged shutdown in one of their financials.  As we've seen there's been some private equity interest in the majors - and would love to see what's involved those offerings.

 

That said, just as discussion, when do people think the cruise lines have to decide what they're actually going to do?  The game of FCC vs refunds can really only run so long in my mind - at some point, absent a miracle, decisions will have to be made as to which ships will go into cold layup, no? 

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1 hour ago, Pcardad said:

We don't know what their intentions are aside from getting some crew closer to home. That intention doesn't mean it is the only one. It is interesting to note that the ships are not in cold-storage yet...that is usually done if they are not expected to be used for the next 6-9+ months.

 

Correct.  And some Caribbean islands have not closed to cruise ships.  I don’t know which are open for certain but read that a cruise that was going to stop in Bermuda was cancelled due to other ports - not due to Bermuda.  Silversea has cruises out of the Caribbean for years so Regent likely could have done the same.  

 

To me, the issue isn’t about getting the crew back as much as it is needing to quarantine the crew for 2 weeks before boarding the ships.   To not do so would be dangerous as they would be returning from various parts of the world.

 

There are still flights flying to many places (we had a flight booked to Athens in May on a cruise that is now cancelled).  There were not many flights from YVR to ATH but we could have flown there if the cruise had not been cancelled.  For the record, I am no longer afraid of flying due to the measures that airlines have taken to keep their ships sanitized.  In fact, flying now is likely safer than ever.  Flights are not full and the planes are clean — that is a unique situation.

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5 minutes ago, Travelcat2 said:

 For the record, I am no longer afraid of flying due to the measures that airlines have taken to keep their ships sanitized.

Didn't know Airships where back flying.

 

Silversea has cruises out of the Caribbean for years so Regent likely could have done the same.

 

What does this have to do with cruising today. Quite a few cruise lines have had departure and arrival inat Carribbean Ports in the past.   And the Carribbean Islands are much more difficult to fly to than non Carribbean ports with mostly Regional Jets thus less capicity and definitely less capacity in this day and age..  

Edited by rallydave
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What effect does the news of the Costa Atlantica have on potential ports? I'm assuming far more countries than Japan are watching what's happening there.   I wouldn't expect any prudent nation to be opening ports to non-commercial ships anytime soon.  

 

 

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1 hour ago, Pcardad said:

The airport in Bermuda is closed right now.

 

Thank you for the information.  I was unable to find anything about the port being closed but you obviously need a plane to get there.  We did sail out of the Caribbean for our first Silversea cruise and it was a pain to get to but I would do it again if I could cruise safely (as safely as possible).   In any case, Regent made their decision and, according to several articles that I've read, many ports will be open by the time Regent resumes cruising - including Canada and likely Mexico. 

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12 minutes ago, Travelcat2 said:

 In any case, Regent made their decision and, according to several articles that I've read, many ports will be open by the time Regent resumes cruising - including Canada and likely Mexico. 

 

This article in Vancouver Sun - https://vancouversun.com/news/covid-19-summer-plans-plan-to-stay-home-advises-b-c-tourism-industry/wcm/27798736-9b02-419c-a606-81c8ece0f7db/

 

makes reference (in last paragraph) to full summer suspension of cruises; still looking for more definitive source.

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5 minutes ago, mrlevin said:

 

This article in Vancouver Sun - https://vancouversun.com/news/covid-19-summer-plans-plan-to-stay-home-advises-b-c-tourism-industry/wcm/27798736-9b02-419c-a606-81c8ece0f7db/

 

makes reference (in last paragraph) to full summer suspension of cruises; still looking for more definitive source.

 

As I've mentioned, we live so close to Canada that we get their television and radio channels.  The last that I heard, the border will open at the end of May.  Nothing definitive about cruise ports.  It likely depends upon what the numbers look like in terms of coronavirus, etc.  I did hear that Victoria may stay closed a bit longer but that really does not affect cruises very much.

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20 hours ago, Travelcat2 said:

The last that I heard, the border will open at the end of May

 

I'm not sure that's quite accurate.  The latest was that they extended the closure for another month, until the end of May.  Nothing was said about whether there would be further extensions.

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28 minutes ago, Wendy The Wanderer said:

 

I'm not sure that's quite accurate.  The latest was that they extended the closure for another month, until the end of May.  Nothing was said about whether there would be further extensions.

 

I should add that this may end up being regional, since B.C. is ahead of Eastern Canada.  But so far as far as the border goes, it's a unified approach.  I know B.C. very much wants to open the border.  Not sure about ports, however.  And then there are the airlines...

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Not sure what this means but I think I do ! Just looked at " Booked Cruises " and our July 15 Alaska cruise is NOT showing. I tried to reenter but just says " cannot find ". Have not been informed of the cancelation from Regent. The system must know something . Guess our Nov. cruise Lisbon/Cape Town will be our next chance to cruise Regent.

Edited by captjohn
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10 minutes ago, captjohn said:

Not sure what this means but I think I do ! Just looked at " Booked Cruises " and our July 15 Alaska cruise is NOT showing. I tried to reenter but just says " cannot find ". Have not been informed of the cancelation from Regent. The system must know something . Guess our Nov. cruise Lisbon/Cape Town will be our next chance to cruise Regent.

 

I just checked my 23 Sep Vancouver to LA cruise and luckily that booking is still there; so they haven't cancelled the entire Alaska season.  Your 15 July cruise is not waitlisted (aka preparing for cancellation) so they should be still selling your cruise, I wonder if I can make a booking in order to get 125% FCC. 😀

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9 minutes ago, mrlevin said:

 

I just checked my 23 Sep Vancouver to LA cruise and luckily that booking is still there; so they haven't cancelled the entire Alaska season.  Your 15 July cruise is not waitlisted (aka preparing for cancellation) so they should be still selling your cruise, I wonder if I can make a booking in order to get 125% FCC. 😀

 

Why would you do that?  Isn't that one of the reasons that Regent is not allowing bookings to be made for cruises that they will likely cancel - they do not want people doing what you propose.  

 

Wendy I did not say that the border would definitely open at the end of next month.  I just stated that the last that I heard it would open next month.  Really not sure if it is possible to open the British Columbia side of Canada while keeping the eastern side closed.  It would not be easy for people on the east coast to fly/drive to the west coast just to cross the border.  In any case, this is up to both the U.S. and Canadian authorities that work together.

 

People in British Columbia own homes and businesses in our county so it is putting extra stress on them - especially since our county has been on a sharp downward trend for almost two weeks (0 deaths in about 10 days and around 1 new case per day in the entire county).  The risk for people in B.C. that visit our county is extremely slim and visa versa.  This type of pandemic has never happened in our lifetime and what has been done in the past does not portend the future.  If it were possible, I would love to see some states close their borders to other states (actually this was done due to people in NYC going down to Florida). Some states are going above and beyond what is required to keep their citizens safe while others are not doing anything.  I would not want to see the hard work that this state (and others that have followed guidelines to a "t") reverse the work that we have done.  If people from Georgia want to have a vacation in Washington (sorry to pick on Georgia - it is a lovely state) it could be dangerous.  They have opened hair salons, tattoo parlors and bowling alleys while their active Covid-19 numbers continue to increase.  

 

Getting back to cruising in the future, I would rather be on the ship with people from states/provinces that have managed to reverse the upward trend of this virus than with people from places where the numbers continue to increase.

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3 hours ago, Travelcat2 said:

 

 

 

Getting back to cruising in the future, I would rather be on the ship with people from states/provinces that have managed to reverse the upward trend of this virus than with people from places where the numbers continue to increase.

 

Why would that make a difference?  All it takes is one and that one could come during your trip to the port.

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5 hours ago, Travelcat2 said:

 

Why would you do that?  Isn't that one of the reasons that Regent is not allowing bookings to be made for cruises that they will likely cancel - they do not want people doing what you propose.  

 

Wendy I did not say that the border would definitely open at the end of next month.  I just stated that the last that I heard it would open next month.  Really not sure if it is possible to open the British Columbia side of Canada while keeping the eastern side closed.  It would not be easy for people on the east coast to fly/drive to the west coast just to cross the border.  In any case, this is up to both the U.S. and Canadian authorities that work together.

 

People in British Columbia own homes and businesses in our county so it is putting extra stress on them - especially since our county has been on a sharp downward trend for almost two weeks (0 deaths in about 10 days and around 1 new case per day in the entire county).  The risk for people in B.C. that visit our county is extremely slim and visa versa.  This type of pandemic has never happened in our lifetime and what has been done in the past does not portend the future.  If it were possible, I would love to see some states close their borders to other states (actually this was done due to people in NYC going down to Florida). Some states are going above and beyond what is required to keep their citizens safe while others are not doing anything.  I would not want to see the hard work that this state (and others that have followed guidelines to a "t") reverse the work that we have done.  If people from Georgia want to have a vacation in Washington (sorry to pick on Georgia - it is a lovely state) it could be dangerous.  They have opened hair salons, tattoo parlors and bowling alleys while their active Covid-19 numbers continue to increase.  

 

Getting back to cruising in the future, I would rather be on the ship with people from states/provinces that have managed to reverse the upward trend of this virus than with people from places where the numbers continue to increase.

The last paragraph would be open to legal challenge as 'discrimination '.

How would you judge an American who lives in 2 areas of the country at different times of the year?

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20 minutes ago, GrJ Berkshire said:

The last paragraph would be open to legal challenge as 'discrimination '.

How would you judge an American who lives in 2 areas of the country at different times of the year?

 

I was giving my personal opinion - not making discriminatory remarks as some people have done.   In my scenario, if, prior to boarding a cruise, a person resides in a state that is still having hundreds/thousands of new cases and/or deaths, it would be concerning to sail with them.  However at this point, there is no way to stop them (other than taking their temperature prior to boarding but this does not address those without symptoms).

 

What is discriminatory is wanting people over a certain age not having access to a vaccine until people that are "working" get theirs.   As a matter of interest there are laws in the U.S. that prevent discriminating against people over the age of 40 but no laws protecting discrimination for those under 40.  

 

SusieQft - agree with your post.  

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What is discriminatory is wanting people over a certain age not having access to a vaccine until people that are "working" get theirs.   As a matter of interest there are laws in the U.S. that prevent discriminating against people over the age of 40 but no laws protecting discrimination for those under 40.  

 

I believe this only applies to employment related issues.

We make age-based decisions in health care all the time.  We only recommend annual mammograms for women over a certain age (and of note never for men although several thousand are diagnosed with breast cancer each year).

The reality is that if a vaccine does become available, the medical community will need to prioritize who will receive the initial doses.  I would expect that the military, first responders, and front line health care workers would be first, followed by those with underlying health conditions since they are most at risk.

Of importance is the fact that we don’t know yet if having antibodies (from being infected with SARS-CoV2 or from the vaccine) will actually ensure that you are protected from developing COVID-19 in the future.  Some antibodies result in lifetime immunity and some require “booster” shots (think Tetanus) and some, due to virus mutation, are of limited value (hence the need for an annual flu shot).
We refer to this virus as “Novel” because it is new to humans and we actually know very little about it.  Recommended treatments are changing weekly as we gain more experience.

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I am 100% for first responders receiving the vaccine before anyone else.  They are the ones working incredibly long hours and have saved so many lives.   Originally we were told that after first responders would be those of us with immune issues and the elderly.  Now it sounds as if people want to do away with the most vulnerable of us.

 

In terms of discrimination, while it began as only an employment issue, I would  bet that healthcare discrimination could be fought successfully in court.  This is something that should not be an issue right now as protecting all of us is so important.  I trust that, when the time comes, those in the greatest need of the vaccine will be able to receive it.

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Health care workers, first responders, those in essential jobs, all residents in Nursing Homes an Assisted Living Facilities will likely receive the vaccine first. That’s a lot of people.Those are the most vulnerable population. Everybody else can self quarantine. Wanting to go on a cruise is not going to move people up the list.

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Re: vaccine and prioritisation, I agree with Wizpharm2 and firmly believe in it should not be based on ability to pay (either by country or individual). 

I do not mind having to wait a little longer to cruise, but cruise I will once safe to do so. 

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On 4/25/2020 at 5:48 PM, Travelcat2 said:

There are still flights flying to many places (we had a flight booked to Athens in May on a cruise that is now cancelled).  There were not many flights from YVR to ATH but we could have flown there if the cruise had not been cancelled.  

As far as I know, the European Union borders are closed to non-European citizens, at least until May 15 but probably after that date as well. Same for European citizens who cannot fly to the US (even if there are still some flights between the two continents but they are only devoted to repatriation flights mainly). So I doubt that you could be able to fly to Greece just to board a ship (unless you are a European citizen of course).

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As long as the US is the epicenter of the Covid outbreak I wouldn’t expect any EU country would be willing to accept plane loads of American passengers.

 

we have inadequate levels of testing, no real controls over residents traveling from state to state, no way currently to test the flying public.

 

Under these circumstances no responsible nation would allow flights to land that originated in the US.

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7 hours ago, Travelcat2 said:

In terms of discrimination, while it began as only an employment issue, I would  bet that healthcare discrimination could be fought successfully in court.

Unlikely, according to my husband who has a LLM in Labor Law. He uses the airlines pilots unsuccessful age discrimination suit against the airline industry as an example. He agrees the ADA is not limited to employment, but that the cruise industry could very likely prove a compelling reason to require special limits by age.

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New report on NCLH financials:

 

https://www.seatrade-cruise.com/news/nclh-sees-q1-and-2020-loss-bookings-still-coming-half-canceled-voyages-seek-refunds

 

Most telling to me is this one line:

 

Quote

Meanwhile, all 28 ships in the company’s fleet are in safe haven in port or at anchor. The majority of ships are transitioning to cold layup.

 

If they are going into cold instead of warm layup, they are anticipating a long cessation of operations.  😂

 

Here is another important quote:

 

NCLH has identified approximately $515m of capital expenditure reductions, including $345m, or a nearly 70% reduction of non-newbuild capital expenditures, for the remainder of 2020.

 

Obviously the Voyager dry dock has been postponed but it looks like a lot of other ship maintenance is also going to be postponed.

Edited by mrlevin
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