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SS/RCCL Finances: Improving, Options, Questions??!!


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Based upon the rapidly deteriorating financial circumstances of cruise lines in general who are experiencing a run on what cash they hold to fund the massive number of cancellations refunds the next action is selling ships for scrap,which some lines are doing already.These are not the signs of a recovering market in my financial experience and sadly whilst my hopes of continuing our long relationship with Silversea are on the very optimistic side I feel the realism of a resumption is the opposite and unlikely in 2021.Hope this turns out to be the wrong conclusion on my part!

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Goal:  to sit on a sun dappled Silversea deck (substitutes are not acceptable), sipping Champagne with our nearest and dearest, watching a palm fringed coast go by while the trio plays

 

Obstacle:  viral pandemic

 

Solution:  science 

 

Science:

***avoidance of infection  by a virus spread by aerosols takes

- distancing

- cleaning hands and surfaces

- masks

-avoiding crowded spaces

- no worsening of deadliness of the disease from human behaviour or mutation

***effective (and not particularly risky) vaccination to protect us and the populations we mix with while away from home

*** if infected, rapidly and  thoroughly effective and cheap treatment available worldwide

 

short of all that, we may not get to that lovely sun dappled deck for a long time. 
 

Now a happy thought:  the planet’s travelling population will want to travel ASAP, once bookings open safely. Talk with your friends, acquaintances, the world about Silversea. You will hear about pent up demand. I wonder in trepidation about the airline, cruise, and hotel finances, sure, but also about how swiftly crew can be found and how training will be completed. 

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On 10/4/2020 at 2:23 PM, christraveller said:

Now a happy thought:  the planet’s travelling population will want to travel ASAP, once bookings open safely. Talk with your friends, acquaintances, the world about Silversea. You will hear about pent up demand. I wonder in trepidation about the airline, cruise, and hotel finances, sure, but also about how swiftly crew can be found and how training will be completed. 

I was really, really with you until this final paragraph. We're in our 70s and a lot of our friends are also. I'm not hearing that "pent up demand." I have a friend here in the US who's from the Netherlands and has tons of siblings there. She goes for a month every single year but not this year and I haven't heard a single whine from her. We all have had enough time to do other things that maybe some travel will just cease.

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We are planning the next couple of years as if cruising didn't exist. It's sad to feel that way but we can't yearn after something unachievable when there is so much to do and experience. 

 

For example, rather than being on our Spirit cruise next month we have taken a holiday let in a part of the UK that we really don't know very well. With the cash back from the cruise we gave upgraded to a very plush property that we 2 and our 2 dogs can get lost in! 

 

2 more stays booked for next year and (yet another) fly-drive to the USA planned for 2022 so that we can mop up the final 6 states that we've yet to visit. 

 

Time's too precious to spend longing for a return of cruising - much more exciting to be planning future travel. 

 

You guys that live in North America have a hugely geographically diverse continent to explore. 

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7 hours ago, Tothesunset said:

We are planning the next couple of years as if cruising didn't exist. It's sad to feel that way but we can't yearn after something unachievable when there is so much to do and experience. For example, rather than being on our Spirit cruise next month we have taken a holiday let in a part of the UK that we really don't know very well. Time's too precious to spend longing for a return of cruising - much more exciting to be planning future travel. You guys that live in North America have a hugely geographically diverse continent to explore. 

 

Great above post and philosophy as expressed and outlined by the smart TTS.  Agree!!  We need to keep moving forward, adjusting as needed, being safe and healthy, etc.  Excellent point about those of us in the USA having many various wonderful options that are reachable without the need to fly and/or cruise.  We are also fortunate to have done many excellent sailings and adventures during recent years.  Wish we had a great sailing coming up soon, but we will adjust as needed.  AND SAFELY!!

 

Very good summary points by clo in saying: "I'm not hearing that 'pent up demand.' I have a friend here in the US who's from the Netherlands and has tons of siblings there.  I haven't heard a single whine from her. We all have had enough time to do other things that maybe some travel will just cease."

 

As to the views of those financial experts on Wall Street, the early morning trading today for the three major cruise lines was up very significantly.  All three stocks were up 4-5% in early Tuesday trading.  Much above the overall market trend.  What does that mean?  Hard to guess, say or know.  

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Norway Coast/Fjords/Arctic Circle cruise from Copenhagen, July 2010, to the top of Europe. Scenic visuals with key tips. Live/blog at 240,500 views.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1227923

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From the Wall Street Journal's sister publication, Barron's, this morning, they had this headline: “Cruise Stocks Are Climbing After One Analyst, Citing Pent-Up Demand, Boosts Price Targets” with these highlights: “J.P. Morgan has raised its price targets on the three major U.S. cruise companies, citing 'significant pent-up leisure travel demand' and the industry’s commitment 'to 100% testing' before passengers and crew board ships. Analyst Brandt Montour also pointed to confidence that cruise operators displayed at an industry conference this week about the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s no-sail order being lifted in the near term.  At the same time, Montour noted, 'investor sentiment for the sector is still awful, and very little of the above narrative is priced into the shares here, in our view.'   Montour raised his price targets on all three companies. He boosted Carnival’s price target to $17 from $16, Norwegian’s to $22 from $19 and Royal Caribbean’s to $79 from $67.  Montour has Carnival at a Neutral rating and the other two companies at Overweight. He wrote in his research note that 'the whole sector will continue to trade together and has upside with a return to cruising.' Just when that happens is uncertain, though the CDC on Sept. 30 extended its no-sail order until Oct. 31.”

 

This morning these three stocks were up in the range of 3-4% each, much above what the overall market was doing.  For us as cruisers, this stock market "confidence" helps the companies raise  cash and stay viable/alive for the future. Whenever and however that will play out. 

 

Full story at:

https://www.barrons.com/articles/cruise-stocks-are-climbing-after-a-j-p-morgan-analyst-citing-pent-up-demand-boosts-price-targets-51602078846

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Sydney to NZ/Auckland Adventure, live/blog 2014 sampling/details with many exciting visuals and key highlights.  On page 23, post #571, see a complete index for all of the pictures, postings.  Now at 231,160 views.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1974139

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From a stock market website this morning, they had this headline: “Forget Norwegian Cruise Line: Carnival Cruises Is a Better Cruise Line Stock” with this sub-head: "The rising tide doesn't lift all cruise line stocks the same way. Let's see why the biggest player is a smarter investment that than the small fish."

 

Here are some of their writer's speculation and highlights: “By now you're either intrigued by the upside of one of this year's hardest-hit industries or you're convinced that cruise line stocks aren't bouncing back anytime soon. All three stocks in this space -- industry leader Carnival, market darling Royal Caribbean Cruises, and spunky bronze medalist Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings -- have taken a dive in 2020. Carnival and Norwegian Cruise Line are both trading 70% below their 52-week highs as of Thursday's close, but the two stocks aren't the same. They're both trading in the teens, but -- again -- they are not the same.  while most industries have returned to some level ofWoperation, the cruising sector is running aground. We're now seven months into the disruption.  The risks are high, and the potential rewards are even higher. They're not built the same. Carnival has leverage as the industry's largest player. It has raised $12.5 billion through financing transactions since March. It had $8.2 billion in cash and equivalents at the end of August. Norwegian Cruise Line operates on a different fiscal year, but it had just $2.3 billion in cash on its balance sheet at the end of June.   Norwegian Cruise Line bulls will argue that this isn't a complete picture. It needs less money to stay afloat. Carnival's cash burn rate is down to $530 million a month. Norwegian Cruise Line's goal is just $160 million a month during the lull. However, with everyone bracing for a slow recovery, with both companies posting losses until at least 2022 liquidity still matters.  Carnival has the size to do things the right way. Heads turned as it announced that it was disposing 18 ships this year that accounted for 12% of its revenue, but these were less efficient vessels accounting for just 3% of its operating profit. The industry's largest player can do this a lot easier than a distant third-place finisher. Norwegian Cruise Line also has the least confident customer base. We're now up to 60% of its passengers on canceled sailings asking for a cash refund at Norwegian Cruise Line. Carnival is at 55%, with Royal Caribbean holding up even better. This is a metric that ultimately measures loyalty.”

 

Interesting industry and financial details.  Here is more with the concluding part of this analysis: "With so many unknowns about the viability of cruising it's hard to take a chance on anything other than the clear survivors. Royal Caribbean will bounce back first as the one with the historically highest margins. Carnival will naturally stick around as the largest player. Norwegian Cruise Line could be the weakest link of the three."

 

Good news for Silversea customers??

 

Full story at:

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/10/11/forget-norwegian-cruise-line-carnival-cruises-is-a/

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Venice: Loving It & Why??!!  Is one of your future desires or past favorites? See these many visual samples for its great history and architecture.  This posting is now at 88,820 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1278226

 

From the Wall Street Journal this weekend, below are the stock charts/trends for the three major cruise lines during the past week.  In general, there were more ups than downs.  Overall, the market has done fairly well in recent weeks, including for the cruise stocks.  BUT, all of these cruise stocks are still much lower than where they were in early March. Where for the future?  Who wins?  Who loses?:

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Compared to the early October week, the most recent five days on Wall Street were not kind and/or encouraging for the three major cruise lines, including Royal Caribbean.  You can see those day-by-day charts below.    

 

From the Wall Street Journal's MarketWatch earlier this week, they had this headline: “Cruise stocks lead S&P 500’s losers after Royal Caribbean’s $1 billion in stock, debt offerings” with this sub-head of "Royal Caribbean’s stock suffering biggest selloff in 3 months, paces S&P 500 losers" and these story highlights: “Shares of cruise companies took a beating Tuesday, with Royal Caribbean Group hit the hardest after announcing a total of $1 billion worth of public stock and private convertible debt offerings, and providing a bookings update.”

 

Full story at:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/cruise-stocks-lead-s-p-500s-losers-after-royal-caribbeans-1-billion-in-stock-debt-offerings-11602605180

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Amazon River-Caribbean 2015 adventure live/blog starting in Barbados. Many visuals from this amazing river and Caribbean Islands (Dutch ABC's, St. Barts, Dominica, Grenada, San Juan, etc.).  Now at 67,519 views:

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2157696

 

 

From the Wall Street Journal, below are their "charts" for the past week tracking the three major cruise lines.  Clearly, all three took a "hit" on Tuesday when the announcement came out about Royal Caribbean going to the capital markets to get about a billion dollars more to shore up their cash position.:

 

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To update, below are the charts for the three major cruise lines.  Last week reflected an upward movement.  Why?  Hard to know exactly.  BUT, keeping confidence with the financial investors is vital to keep "cash flow" stable if more money is needed during the coming months.  

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

For this past week, per the below Wall Street Journal charts, it was an "UP" week for the three major cruise line operators.:

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Appreciate the stock charts, in a longer term perspective, RCL started 2020 at $135  now $64 per share so it is still down about 53% CCL started at $52, now $15 (down more than 60%) and NCLH started at $60 now at $18 Down 60%.  When cruising resumption has a clear path forward, these will pop to the upside.  Until then they will bounce Around down here with some volatility.

 

 

Edited by crusinbanjo
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3 hours ago, crusinbanjo said:

Appreciate the stock charts, in a longer term perspective, RCL started 2020 at $135  now $64 per share so it is still down about 53% CCL started at $52, now $15 (down more than 60%) and NCLH started at $60 now at $18 Down 60%.  When cruising resumption has a clear path forward, these will pop to the upside.  Until then they will bounce Around down here with some volatility.

 

 


And my personal opinion is that we have not turned the corner yet on this pandemic and we have not seen the bottom.  

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22 hours ago, crusinbanjo said:

Appreciate the stock charts, in a longer term perspective, RCL started 2020 at $135  now $64 per share so it is still down about 53% CCL started at $52, now $15 (down more than 60%) and NCLH started at $60 now at $18 Down 60%.  When cruising resumption has a clear path forward, these will pop to the upside.  Until then they will bounce Around down here with some volatility.

 

Appreciate the above good posting/insights from Mr. Banjo.  Plus, good follow-ups from Randy and our friends in Maryland and Philadelphia. Key for watching later this week will be as to what the CDC does (or not) to extend the "No-Sailing" order affecting the cruising lines.  That order is set to expire October 31.  

 

From Barron's, the sister publication of the Wall Street Journal this morning, they had this headline: Cruise Stocks Are Getting Crushed Because Covid Cases Are Cresting Again” with these highlights: “Cruise line stocks were falling sharply Monday morning as escalating Covid-19 cases and related restrictions highlight continuing headwinds for the industry.  Carnival Corp. fell 9.6% to $13.89, while Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings slid 9.7% to $16.58 and Royal Caribbean Group was 9.9% lower at $58.10.  The rising case counts are weighing on stocks across the board, leaving the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 1.8% and the S&P 500 of 1.4%.  Cruise company stocks have suffered throughout the pandemic because most sailings have been canceled. Carnival and Norwegian have been hit the hardest, falling 72% and 71% year to date, respectively. Royal Caribbean has dropped 55%.

 

Here is more for this current summary: "The recent spike in cases worldwide—and increasing moves by governments in Europe to curb the spread—emphasize the protracted nature of the crisis and could be spooking investors who had been betting on stocks that could benefit from eased restrictions, such as cruise lines.  While pent-up demand might eventually help the group, cruise restrictions continue to be extended. Even with increased health protocols, some analysts warn that cruises won’t return until 2021. 'We believe that a return to extensive travel (planes, cruise, hotels) is several years away,' Citigroup analyst Shawn Collins wrote.  Absent a vaccine, reminders of how far from normal the world still is are likely to weigh on cruise stocks."

 

Full story at:

https://www.barrons.com/articles/cruise-stocks-get-crushed-because-covid-cases-are-cresting-again-51603725613?adobe_mc=MCMID%3D63471548750076989185250804279237370225|MCORGID%3DCB68E4BA55144CAA0A4C98A5%40AdobeOrg|TS%3D1603725882

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

AFRICA?!!?: Fun, interesting visuals, plus travel details from this early 2016 live/blog. At 50,229 views. Featuring Cape Town, South Africa’s coast, Mozambique, Victoria Falls/Zambia and Botswana's famed Okavango Delta.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2310337

 

From the Wall Street Journal at 3:23 p.m. this afternoon, this shows how big of a drop hit Royal Caribbean and the other two major cruise lines today.  At one point, RCL was down 12%.:

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Last week was a very mixed for the three major cruise line owners.  Then, Friday hit with an UP, UP as the CDC took off the "No-Sail" order.  But, my view is that the lifting of that restriction comes with significant "strings" that will slow any re-opening.  Much still to happen and be known in the upcoming weeks?

 

Reactions, comments, opinions?

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Kotor/Montenegro:  Exciting visual samples, tips, details, etc., for this scenic, historic location. Over 47,958 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1439193

 

Fromm the Wall Street Journal, here are the charts as to how the markets viewed the three major cruise lines during last week.  Kind of like a roller coaster??  Down, Up, Down, Down and then UP on Friday?.:

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31 minutes ago, TLCOhio said:

Much still to happen and be known in the upcoming weeks?

 

Reactions, comments, opinions?

I must concur Terry..Although I must confess my crystal ball has been broken for quite awhile..

 

Joseph

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I note that the three cruises I have been watching (two of which I have bookings on) all went up in price in the past two days (vista/veranda suites):

 

May 2021 (Cloud) went up about $1,200/person  

October 2021 (Moon) up about $180/person

February 2022 (Muse) up about $270/person

 

This comports with other posts I have seen that cruises being cancelled now cannot be rebooked for next year at the same price.  

 

I have observed that SS will raise the price as the sailing date approaches and cabins get sold out, but the February 2022 price rise seems unusual.  That's a long way out and every popular class of suite seems to be available.  Are they perhaps anticipating a rise in the price of airfare?  Increased demand?  A need to increase the value of their unbooked inventory to spruce up the financials?  A nudge to get uncommitted customers to put down a deposit before the price goes up again?  

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17 minutes ago, dawntrdr said:

...February 2022 price rise seems unusual.  That's a long way out and every popular class of suite seems to be available.  Are they perhaps anticipating a rise in the price of airfare?  Increased demand?  A need to increase the value of their unbooked inventory to spruce up the financials?  A nudge to get uncommitted customers to put down a deposit before the price goes up again?  

 

Your hypotheses are certainly plausible... Here are some more possibilities. 

 

Are they anticipating higher operating costs, associated with the need for frequent testing? Included shore excursions, if you can't leave the ship without one? Trying to make more $ from new bookings, to make up for all the inventory they have given away w/ FCCs?

 

Anyone's guess.

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8 hours ago, jpalbny said:

 

Your hypotheses are certainly plausible... Here are some more possibilities. 

 

Are they anticipating higher operating costs, associated with the need for frequent testing? Included shore excursions, if you can't leave the ship without one? Trying to make more $ from new bookings, to make up for all the inventory they have given away w/ FCCs?

 

Anyone's guess.

Maybe add in lower passenger numbers to cope with Covid-19 social distancing rules?

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My information in answer to a specific question on Shore excursions is that the only way to exit the ship will be on an organised shore excursion which will be an extra cost to the cruise cost which has always been Silversea policy.We always preferred to do our own thing so a no brainer for us to be confined to the ship for a whole cruise.

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On 11/4/2020 at 6:51 AM, dawntrdr said:

Are they perhaps anticipating a rise in the price of airfare?  Increased demand?  A need to increase the value of their unbooked inventory to spruce up the financials?  A nudge to get uncommitted customers to put down a deposit before the price goes up again?  


I think it’s just their normally scheduled increase in price.  It’s an automated process that in the past has coincided with promotion end dates and future schedule releases.

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On 11/5/2020 at 4:28 PM, Stumblefoot said:

I think it’s just their normally scheduled increase in price.  It’s an automated process that in the past has coincided with promotion end dates and future schedule releases.

 

Appreciate these various follow-ups and comments as to future pricing and how the cruise lines stage their future efforts/plans.  Prices for sailings are an interesting challenge as to how they do and accomplish their upcoming re-opening.  

 

Below are the charts for the three major cruise lines during the past week.  Nothing too dramatically, up or down.  Overall, still a generally upward movement.  This gives a sense during the past five market days as to how Wall Street viewed their situation/future.  

 

From the Wall Street Journal's MarketWatch reporting, they had this headline this past week: “Cruises from the U.S. can begin sailing again — but be ready for shorter voyages, multiple COVID tests and no more buffets” with this sub-headline: "While the cruise industry can start to take steps to reopen, the CDC’s final approval could take months to receive."

 

Here are more story highlights: “Public-health officials have given cruise lines the green light to begin a phased reopening in the U.S. following months of no-sail orders amid the coronavirus pandemic.  But it could be months before travelers start sailing the high seas again out of American ports.  Last week, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced it was not extending the full no-sail order that had shut down the cruise industry for months. The no-sail order, as a result, expired on Oct. 31, and in its place the CDC introduced a conditional sail order laying out the requirements that cruise lines must meet to resume operations.  However, on Tuesday, the Cruise Line International Association, the primary trade group representing the cruise industry, announced that its members had elected to voluntarily suspend operations in the U.S. through the rest of the year.”

 

Here are a couple of key points from their reporting/analysis: "Some sailings may be canceled even after a cruise line starts operating again.  One restriction the CDC is keeping in place is that cruises, once allowed, can be no longer than seven days. And the public-health agency reserved the right to shorten (or expand) that time frame going forward.  That short time frame may not preclude popular itineraries, such as cruises to the Bahamas or Western Caribbean. But it could mean that certain sailings will not be able to happen. For instance, Panama Canal voyages would not be feasible. Similarly, trips from California to Hawaii and Alaska would likely be off the table based on that timeframe, Chiron said.  Going on a cruise vacation will involve multiple COVID-19 tests.  The CDC itself requires that passengers and crew be screened on the day of embarkation and the day of return. Passengers will also be required to have been tested and received results prior to getting on the ship."

 

Full story at:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/cruises-can-start-a-phased-reopening-but-be-ready-for-shorter-voyages-multiple-covid-tests-and-no-more-buffets-11604542627?adobe_mc=MCMID%3D90210640688701282522873839270861036918|MCORGID%3DCB68E4BA55144CAA0A4C98A5%40AdobeOrg|TS%3D1604855181

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Dubrovnik!  Nice visual samples, tips, details, etc., for this super scenic location. Over 47,556 views.    

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1439227

 

From the Wall Street Journal, here are their day-by-day stock charts for the three major cruise lines.  No super strong trends during that week either up or down.  Overall, it was still a slow, generally upward movement.  BUT, next week, what will happen as to the "confidence" of the financial community towards cruising?:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see these visuals larger/better!)

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Pent up demand, not.

 

None of our travel group have any plans to cruise any time in the future - but there are already 4 land based trips to 4 locations in the world planned.

 

And after cruising 30 plus years, none of us are remotely sad about it. There is an amazing feeling of liberation from cruising expressed by our group members.

 

When talk comes around to the virus, I also ask people quite often, would you cruise in the future - and not a single person has indicated yes. I then ask them if they had cruised before and many said they have not and are not interested.

 

So the cruise lines can lie all they want, but they are facing an existential change in consumer attitude.

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1 hour ago, Doubt It said:

Pent up demand, not.

 

None of our travel group have any plans to cruise any time in the future - but there are already 4 land based trips to 4 locations in the world planned.

 

And after cruising 30 plus years, none of us are remotely sad about it. There is an amazing feeling of liberation from cruising expressed by our group members.

 

When talk comes around to the virus, I also ask people quite often, would you cruise in the future - and not a single person has indicated yes. I then ask them if they had cruised before and many said they have not and are not interested.

 

So the cruise lines can lie all they want, but they are facing an existential change in consumer attitude.


My short term view is a little different but on the whole I agree with Doubt It’s post.  I do think there is some pent up demand and there will be an initial surge of long time cruisers.  What will be interesting is whether or not these long  time cruisers will enjoy what will be now be the new cruising experience.   I imagine some will some will not.   As for attracting new cruisers I think the cruise lines have a steep uphill climb.   My very foggy crystal ball says it will be years to reach 2019 levels.   

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