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SS/RCCL Finances: Improving, Options, Questions??!!


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On 1/26/2021 at 12:43 PM, philipb said:

But unlike governments, there is a limit to how much an ailing business can borrow. This is how I think it could play out:

The re-start of mainstream cruising will continue to be delayed in 2021 to the point where the 'Big 3' cruise companies no longer have sufficient working capital to remain afloat. The 'cash burn' will continue and we could see the big corporations filing for bankruptcy (in whichever jurisdiction they may reside). Terry - you might like to bookmark this post and come back to it on 31 December 2021 and see how much of my analysis has proven correct!

 

Very good above comments and follow-ups by our UK friends, etc.  By the end of 2021, we will know much more as to which companies survive, why and how.  YES, Stumblefoot, money remains cheap and available.  BUT, for how much longer?

 

Below documents as to how extremely "ROCKY" was this past week for the way those on Wall street rated the future for the three major cruise lines.  Lots of ups and downs!!  Very choppy, rough seas??

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Amazon River-Caribbean 2015 adventure live/blog starting in Barbados. Many visuals from this amazing river and Caribbean Islands (Dutch ABC's, St. Barts, Dominica, Grenada, San Juan, etc.).  Now at 67,933 views:

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=215769

 

From the Wall Street Journal, here are the stock charts for the past week.  Very challenged week!!:

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Terry, the issue with paying much attention to short-term shifts in the cruise line stocks is that they soar and sink on the daily news cycle. The J&J vaccine looks like it will be approved soon? Stocks soar. Oh, it's not as effective as the mRNA vaccines? Stocks dip. Biden says we'll jump form 1 million to 1.5 million shot delivered per day? Stocks soar? More South Africa variant cases detected across the US? Stocks sink. And so it goes. Unfortunately, these day-to-day and even week-to-week machinations don't give us much insight into the real financial picture of the cruise line companies.

 

This is nothing new of course; Wall Street often doesn't value companies on their fundamentals, but who sneezed in the executive suite or which analyst predicts great earnings for a company and drives the price down when earnings come in "under projections". 

 

This is not to say that I don't enjoy this thread immensely! But I'm much more interested in what the companies are actually doing, what they say about their cash reserves, how they are funding the ever-lengthening delays, etc. than the shifting tides on Wall Street. 😉

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Canada barring cruise ships until February 2022 isn’t going to help the whole industry.   Not a huge hit for Silversea but a significant hit for its parent company.  The Alaska and Caribbean seasons and itineraries are huge cash generators and both not apparently happening in 2021 is significant.  https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/canada-extends-ban-cruise-ships-152230442.html

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On 1/30/2021 at 10:55 PM, cruiseej said:

Terry, the issue with paying much attention to short-term shifts in the cruise line stocks is that they soar and sink on the daily news cycle. The J&J vaccine looks like it will be approved soon? Stocks soar. Oh, it's not as effective as the mRNA vaccines? Stocks dip.

 

Agree with the above, wise comments and follow-up reflecting correctly that the stock market is not always an accurate and/or perfect indicator for "value" and long-term financial direction.  This past week is a good example for those varied factors and impacts.  The Canada ban hurts the cruise ship re-opening hopes, but solid progress was made for more vaccines during this recent period.  Mixed signals??!!

 

From Barron's, the respected sister publication of the Wall Street Journal today, they had this headline: “Canada Bans Cruises Through February 2022, Clouding Alaska Routes. Cruise Stocks Are Up Anyway.” with these highlights: “Canada extended its ban on cruise vessels in the country’s waters through February 2022, the latest blow to the beleaguered cruise industry.  Canadian Transport Minister Omar Alghabra said Thursday in part that the Canadian government is advising 'Canadian citizens and permanent residents to avoid all travel on cruise ships outside Canada until further notice.'  It also said that 'Cruise vessels in Canadian waters pose a risk to our health care systems.'  Investors shrugged off the news Friday morning as the overall market climbed.   For the large U.S. cruise operators, Alaska cruises, which often sail through Canadian waters, are an important part of the crucial summer season.  'This announcement essentially means that 2021 Alaskan cruises and New England/ Maritime Provinces cruises will not be happening as they typically sail through Canadian waters and include a stop(s) in Canada,' Patrick Scholes, an analyst at Truist Securities, wrote in a note Thursday.”

 

Full story at:

https://www.barrons.com/articles/canada-bans-cruises-through-february-2022-clouding-alaska-routes-cruise-stocks-are-up-anyway-51612539366

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

AFRICA?!!?: Fun, interesting visuals, plus travel details from this early 2016 live/blog. At 50,968 views. Featuring Cape Town, South Africa’s coast, Mozambique, Victoria Falls/Zambia and Botswana's famed Okavango Delta.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2310337

 

From the Wall Street Journal, here are the charts from this past week reflecting the generally upward direction for the three major cruise ship stocks.:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see these visuals larger/better!)

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Perhaps a long shot, but I wrote to all four of Maine’s congressional delegation today to ask for suspension of enforcement of the PVSA until 2024. Suspension would allow Alaskan and New England cruises to skip Canada, assuming other CDC requirements were met. At least that hurdle would be off the table. 

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5 hours ago, TLCOhio said:

In a release this week, Carnival said it had priced a principal amount of $3.5 billion in senior unsecured notes at a rate of 5.75% a year.

That is really impressive.  And, a very good sign too.

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On 2/5/2021 at 9:36 PM, CruiserFromMaine said:

Perhaps a long shot, but I wrote to all four of Maine’s congressional delegation today to ask for suspension of enforcement of the PVSA until 2024. Suspension would allow Alaskan and New England cruises to skip Canada, assuming other CDC requirements were met. At least that hurdle would be off the table. 

 

Let us know what, if anything, you hear back from your state's twp U.S. Senators and your two Members of Congress.  Agree that it is a "long-shot" to expect a change.  Too many interests and complications to expect reasonably any type of smart adjustments during these challenged times.

 

Agree with Stumblefoot that getting an interest rate below 6% was fairly surprisingly low.

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Kotor/Montenegro:  Exciting visual samples, tips, details, etc., for this scenic, historic location. Over 48,125 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1439193

 

 

From the Wall Street Journal, below are the trends for the three major cruise line stock  values.  Generally, it was a downward past week.  Why?  That's, as always, not perfectly clear!!??:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see these visuals larger/better!)

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From MSN News and this financial website this morning, they had this headline: “Forget Norwegian Cruises: Carnival Cruises Is a Better Cruise Line Stock”

 

Here are some of their column/analysis highlights: “The romance of exotic cruising is dead on Valentine's Day. It's now been 11 months since Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings and industry leader Carnival hit the high seas with revenue-generating passengers. It won't be until at least May when cruise lines are back in business, and like a midnight buffet in the middle of a windy sea storm, that restart date is a moveable feast. The two stocks got crushed in 2020, shedding 56% to 57% of their value last year. Norwegian Cruise Line and Carnival started to bounce back after the initial early pandemic sell-off, rising again later in 2020 as viable COVID-19-tackling vaccines began hitting the market.  However, both stocks are now trading lower again in 2021. Reality is starting to sink in for cruising fans. If you're an investor wanting to take advantage of depressed prices in this market, which one do you buy? Do you go for the largest player in Carnival, or do you take a chance on the more nimble Norwegian Cruise Line?  It's going to be a long time before people take a cruise vacation the way they used to. The experience itself will be different, and that will test the resolve of passengers. The financial returns will also be different for the operators, and that will test the resolve of investors. Cruise lines have spent the past year raising money through debt and stock sales. They have scaled back their fleets. The end result is financially bloated companies that know the turnaround will take some serious time. International travel restrictions aren't going to be lifted in the near future, and ports of call may need to be checked down when the voyages begin. Analysts don't see any of the companies turning a profit until the springtime quarter of 2022, and that could prove optimistic if there are more canceled sailings as 2021 plays out.  Norwegian Cruise Line and Carnival are riskier bets than their low stock prices suggest. Carnival gets the nod here, but largely as the lesser of two evils.  As the industry leader Carnival has a much better chance of outlasting Norwegian Cruise Line in a shakeout. Under warmer waters, one could argue that Norwegian would be bought out by one of its two larger peers at a premium, but no player is interested in expanding its fleet right now.

 

Many interesting comments and speculation by this writer.  Agree or disagree??  No mention in this analysis as to Royal Caribbean.    Here is a key summary: "In a bearish scenario, Carnival is the better cruise line stock because it holds its breath underwater longer. In a bullish scenario, Norwegian Cruise Line will survive, but Carnival is still the one better positioned to turn its business around sooner. Carnival wins in both scenarios."

 

Full story at:  

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savingandinvesting/forget-norwegian-cruises-carnival-cruises-is-a-better-cruise-line-stock/ar-BB1dFIy6

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Dubrovnik!  Nice visual samples, tips, details, etc., for this super scenic and historic location. Over 47,748 views.    

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1439227

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From the Wall Street Journal stock chart yesterday, the value of Royal Caribbean dramatically went up, UP from $67.63 to $74.45. See below.   The other two major cruise stocks moved up significantly, too.  No media coverage explaining exactly why.  

 

Any guesses and/or insights for what was driving this trend?  Is it just the general  good  news as more people are getting vaccines?

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Athens & Greece: Many visuals, details from two visits in a city with great history, culture and architecture.  Now at 37,374 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1101008

 

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4 hours ago, TLCOhio said:

Any guesses and/or insights for what was driving this trend?

CEO comments leaked on upcoming earnings release that indicated no liquidity problems.  Couple that with U.S. cases and hospitalizations plummeting.

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1 hour ago, Stumblefoot said:

CEO comments leaked on upcoming earnings release that indicated no liquidity problems.  Couple that with U.S. cases and hospitalizations plummeting.

 

Great above Crystal Ball info and/or speculation!!  Will be watching in the days ahead for that confirmation being reported by the news media.  Also, see the smart wisdom of Joseph with the magic date, maybe, of Dec. 31, 2021??!!  Appreciate these great comments, sharing and follow-up.  Keep it coming.  

 

From the Orlando newspaper yesterday, they had this headline: “Norwegian Cruise Line, sister lines cancel sailings through May amid coronavirus pandemic” with these highlights: “The date any cruise line will return to service in the U.S. continues to push further into the calendar year, with Norwegian Cruise Line announcing the latest round of cancellations for it and its sister lines.  Parent company Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. announced Tuesday that NCL, Oceania Cruises and Regent Seven Seas won’t sail at all until at least June, and that’s across the globe. Also, Canada’s recent decision to not allow cruise ships to dock until at least 2022 has lines trying to salvage some sort of potential Alaska sailing plans for summer 2021, so Norwegian has stopped taking new bookings for those sailings, although has not canceled them just yet.”

 

Full story at:

https://www.orlandosentinel.com/travel/florida-cruise-guide/os-bz-norwegian-cruise-line-cancels-through-may-20210216-pewx4mbsdjg7ja44s2sh7t6doq-story.html

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Lisbon, NWSpain, Bordeaux/Brittany: Live/blog, June 2017 from Portugal to France along scenic Atlantic Coast.  Now at 31,463 views.  Many interesting pictures, details for history, food, culture, etc.:

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2511358

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We will find out next week if and/or that the smart prediction by Stumblefoot proves to be 100% correct.  

 

From a press release in the Wall Street Journal this morning, they had this headline: “Royal Caribbean Group to hold conference call on business update and fourth quarter financial results” with these highlights: “Royal Caribbean Group has scheduled a conference call for 10:00 a.m. ET, Monday, February 22, 2021, to provide a business update and discuss fourth quarter 2020 financial results. The call will be available on-line at the company's investor relations website, www.rclinvestor.com. To listen to the call by phone, please dial (877) 663-9606 in the US and Canada. International phone calls should be made to (706) 758-4628. There is no passcode or meeting number. A replay of the webcast will be available at the same site for a month following the call.”

 

Full story at:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/royal-caribbean-group-to-hold-conference-call-on-business-update-and-fourth-quarter-financial-results-01613605875?tesla=y

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Panama Canal? Early 2017, Fort Lauderdale to San Francisco adventure through Panama Canal.  Our first stops in Colombia, Central America and Mexico, plus added time in the great Golden Gate City. Now at 30,423 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2465580

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AND, here is what is also coming next week for another major cruise line per the Wall Street Journal press release yesterday with this headline: “Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings to Hold Conference Call on Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2020 Financial Results” with these highlights: “Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings announced today it will report fourth quarter and full year 2020 financial results on Thursday, February 25, 2021 at 7:00 a.m. ET with a conference call to discuss results at 10:00 a.m. ET. The conference call will be simultaneously webcast via the Company's Investor Relations website, www.nclhltdinvestor.com.”

 

It will be a big, BIG week as to what the top executives for these two major cruise companies have to say about their "cash burn", financial reserves and future re-opening.  What key questions do you want these top officials to share and answer?

 

Full story at:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/norwegian-cruise-line-holdings-to-hold-conference-call-on-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2020-financial-results-01613597920?tesla=y

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

From late 2018, see “Holy Lands, Egypt, Jordan, Oman, Dubai, Greece, etc.”, with many visuals, details and ideas for the historic and scenic Middle East. Now at 19,437 views.  Connect at:

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2607054-livenautica-greece-holy-lands-egypt-dubai-terrypix’s/

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1 hour ago, TLCOhio said:

 What key questions do you want these top officials to share and answer?

How is the company coordinating with governments across the globe to return to cruising, how often do they speak, what have they learned, and what do they expect the timeline to be?

 

When will the company release its passenger requirements for cruising?  What options will be provided to passengers who wish to not comply?  And, how will non-compliance be handled once on board?

 

What is the process going to be should a passenger contract Covid-19 while on a voyage and how will the voyage be managed from that point forward?

 

 

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On 2/18/2021 at 12:41 PM, Stumblefoot said:

How is the company coordinating with governments across the globe to return to cruising, how often do they speak, what have they learned, and what do they expect the timeline to be?   When will the company release its passenger requirements for cruising?  What options will be provided to passengers who wish to not comply?  And, how will non-compliance be handled once on board?   What is the process going to be should a passenger contract Covid-19 while on a voyage and how will the voyage be managed from that point forward?  

 

Super excellent questions above from the savvy Stumblefoot.  Monday at 10 am will be the financial update from the top executives with Royal Caribbean.   I won't be able to ask any questions.  It is only the Wall Street analysts on the phone line to make such inquiries.  They are good and solid in asking about "cash burn", the ability to raise more funds, re-start costs, advanced bookings, etc.  I will make detailed notes and share my highlights here on this board.

 

Below are the stock values trends for the past week.  It was an up, UP, UP period.  Clearly the stock market pro's are guessing that there will be more good news next week.  As of the stock market close late Friday afternoon, the value of Royal Caribbean had nearly recovered to where it had been in early March 2020.  That's serious progress and could be a positive sign for the future??!!

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Completed 2019 summer with Calgary, Jasper/Banff National Parks, Western Canada Rocky Mountaineer rail adventure, Vancouver, sailing up to Alaska on Silver Musse, post-cruise excursion to Denali, etc.  Many visuals and details from our first in these scenic areas!  Live/blog: 

https://boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2682584-live-terryohio-silver-muse-alaska-canadarockies-pix’s/

 

From the Wall Street Journal, here the charts for the three major cruise ships stocks during the past week.:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see these visuals larger/better!)

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1539851647_ScreenShot2021-02-19at5_14_39PM.thumb.png.fb91afe6f34fce9ca4546f6c8cf902a3.png

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From the Reuters newswire and MSN News this morning within the past hour, they had this headline: “Stuck in port, Royal Caribbean's quarterly loss cruises past $1 billion with these highlights: “Royal Caribbean Group lost $1 billion-plus in the fourth quarter as the coronavirus crisis kept its cruise ships ashore, but pointed to strong booking trends for 2022.  Cruise operators have been shoring up cash reserves by issuing new shares, selling assets or raising billions of dollars in debt over the last few months as the COVID-19 pandemic brought the industry to a virtual standstill.  With its ships not sailing, Royal Caribbean's total revenue for the quarter plunged to $34.1 million from $2.52 billion last year. Analysts had expected a revenue of $35.6 million, according to Refinitiv IBES data.  However, the company said bookings for the first half of 2022 were within historical ranges and at higher prices, underlining a strong demand for cruises.”

 

Here is more from their reporting: "Royal Caribbean, which posted a rare negative revenue last quarter, said it expected to incur a net loss for its first quarter and the 2021 fiscal year.  Several analysts expect Royal Caribbean and its peers Carnival Corp and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd to resume voyages gradually in the back half of this year, as governments in the United States and other major markets vaccinate thousands of people."

 

Will share more specific details after listening to RCL's 10 am Monday conference call with the Wall Street analysts. 

 

Full story at:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/stuck-in-port-royal-caribbeans-quarterly-loss-cruises-past-1-billion/ar-BB1dUdvS

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Barcelona/Med: June 2011, with stops in Villefranche, ports near Pisa and Rome, Naples, Kotor, Venice and Dubrovnik. Great visuals with key highlights, tips, etc. Live/blog now at 252,938 views.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1426474

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Just completed Royal Caribbean’s one-hour Wall Street analyst briefing, including a lenthy Q&A period.  Overall, as a quick summary, there was a mix of BOTH optimism and cautious “vagueness” without providing any specific timings and future re-opening details.  

 

At the start, Royal Caribbean CEO Richard Fain noted this has been “a very intense period” as “all jobs and duties have changed and it has been done while working from home.”

 

They are clearly ready to “ramp up” and have been busy especially in dealing with various governments.  Fain indicated their company wants cruises to “be safer than a walk down Main Street.”  He especially highlighted recent vaccine progress as the big change since their last quarterly reporting.  Much of the early progress discussed as to what they have experienced with many Singapore examples from operating there since December.  There was mentioned that once cruising re-starts, an aspect will involve sailing to two of RCL’s private destinations.  

 

In cold numbers, their CFO noted a $1.1 billion loss for the quarter and a $3.9 billion loss for the full year.  From Barron’s, the specifics cited included a per share lost of: “$5.02 a share, in the fourth quarter on an adjusted basis versus a profit of $1.42 a share year earlier as revenue plunged to $34.1 million from $2.5 billion.”  

 

The CFO cited 2020 as their “toughest year” in history.  RCL has raised $9 billion plus in cash and cut back or delayed future capital spending.  Royal Caribbean has $4.4 billion in liquidity now with a $250-290 million a month “cash burn”.  
More financial specific can be seen at: 
https://www.barrons.com/articles/royal-caribbean-logs-another-huge-loss-as-sailing-timeline-remains-uncertain-51614010437

 

Bookings have been below historical levels. and they will not have a traditional wave booking period.  Currently, they have been limiting their marketing efforts and that 75% of their recent bookings have been new.  

 

There was no hiding or glossing over the reality that they have no idea when they will re-open and that it will be a varied process depending they area and rules where they will be operating.  They hinted that there might be a second ship to operate out of Singapore.  As to cruises cancelled, about half of those booked had wanted a cash refund.  RCL expects to have continued losses for upcoming quarter and for all of 2021.  

 

More details will follow in the next post.  

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Norway Coast/Fjords/Arctic Circle cruise from Copenhagen, July 2010, to the top of Europe. Scenic visuals with key tips. Live/blog at 241,369 views.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1227923

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Now, we shift to the various questions asked of CEO Fain, the RCL CFO, etc.  Many good, smart and probing inquiries by these industry/finance experts!!  First was a creative question seeking to know more about a re-start timing involving how they have set-up fuel hedges and Alaska potentials?  BUT, their CFO ducked (for legitimate reasons as the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) watches to make sure there is not too much stock price hype).  He avoided answering these pointed questions, but he freely admitted that they view this situation as “very fluid.”  Their CFO noted that “there is clear demand” and that these future bookings as this stage are “impressive.” Plus, he commented on a “lot of pent-up demand” and that for gaining more cash: “we have many options in the capital baskets.”

 

As to the future “cruise experience”, CEO Fain noted how vaccines have changed things, but that it will: "take months to get large numbers vaccinated and that we want to see how effective they are.”   Fain cited Israel’s example for their success and how the vaccines have worked “better than shown in the trials”.   Fair was strong in his viewpoint that “vaccine is the ultimate weapon.”.

 

The RCL CFO shared that the fleet has changed including having a more profitable mix of ships since they sold Azamara and two older ships.  They are liking their future new ships for their fuel economy, etc.  They noted that these new ships will improve their margins.

 

As to questions about summer cruises in Europe and mandating passengers to have vaccinations, there was expected vagueness, but they pointed to some type of a “hybrid between testing and vaccines.”  They expect the EU and UK to be somewhat similar to what CDC will require of the cruise lines.

 

From their Singapore sailings, RCL shared they have done 35,000 passengers there with high customer ratings.  Initially, they have sailed with at a 50% capacity.  They might go to a 65% capacity in the future.  There was mention that they have done more with technology during these Singapore sailings, including for lifeboat training, contact tracing, etc.  “Ground-breaking” is how they viewed what they have done/learned there and they noted the “landscape is changing”.

 

As to demographics with their future bookings, the fact that those 65+ have been getting vaccines has upped their deposits and schedulings.  They specifically cited Silversea has seeing an uplift as a part of this overall future booking trend.  There was an interesting mention that in the January-February 2021 period that bookings were up 30% compared to what happened during the November-December 2020 period.  Part of that was because late last year was such a “bad news” period with spiking Covid infections, deaths, etc.  Now, they RCL officials see much “more consumer confidence”.  As to timing from CDC on technical requirements, they expect them “any time soon”.  It was noted “we are literally waiting” and they think it will be happening soon.  It was shared that 250,000 have volunteered to do these test cruises.

 

They view it as “productive”  in dealing with the CDC.  Given that various indicators are moving in a positive manner, they concluded “we are getting closer and closer to good news.”   Given that there are "so many variables".  Fain cited these “dramatic drops" in the CDC indicators, but he was very careful to not predicted when it will happen.

 

As to the crew, they detailed doing a recent survey of 70,000 staff members around they world.  They received quick and solid response rates, including that 98% of the crew were in favor of doing the vaccine.  This includes that 4,000 staff members have already been vaccinated.

 

As to future debt capacity, they have $2 billion available now to tap and that their obligations due in 2021 total only $400 million.

 

As to where cruising might open up first in the coming months, they said they are having discussions around the world and that there will be many opportunities, including with sailings they are now doing out of Barbados.

 

The bottom line? There is solid optimism due to the current vaccine progress, but these RCL officials were very careful in not wanting to be predicting (or guessing) as to exactly when, where and how their many ships and brands will actually be able to re-open in some form closer to "normal".

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Sydney to NZ/Auckland Adventure, live/blog 2014 sampling/details with many exciting visuals and key highlights.  On page 23, post #571, see a complete index for all of the pictures, postings.  Now at 232,437 views.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1974139

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Today was a BIG "jump-up" for the the three major cruise lines.  This was especially true after the top RCL officials reported their latest financial results this morning.  At times, when the overall market was "flat", Royal Caribbean was up, UP more than 11% in value.  The profit/loss numbers were not that good, but clearly the market is seeing positive potentials ahead despite the current negative numbers.  

 

From the Wall Street Journal's sister publication, Barron's, this afternoon, they had this headline: “Royal Caribbean Logs Another Huge Loss as Sailing Timeline Remains Uncertain with these highlights: “Hit hard by the pandemic, Royal Caribbean Group lost $1.1 billion, or $5.02 a share, in the fourth quarter as revenue plunged to $34.1 million from $2.5 billion.The Miami-based company estimated its monthly cash burn to be $250 million to $290 million 'during a prolonged suspension of operations.'  As of Dec. 31, the company’s liquidity totaled about $4.4 billion. Last year, to shore up its liquidity, Royal Caribbean raised about $9.3 billion of new capital, including debt and equity.  Royal Caribbean expects to have losses for the first quarter and full year of 2021. CFO Jason Liberty told analysts during the company’s fourth-quarter earnings call Monday morning that 'the timing and trajectory of the recovery remains uncertain.' ”

 

Here is more from their reporting:  "A key question is when Royal Caribbean will be able to resume its operations in and out of U.S. ports. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued a conditional sail order in late October, but the timing remains uncertain.  The company said it 'continues to prepare and develop its plan to meet the framework' of that order.  'While the framework represents an important step to return to service, many uncertainties remain as to the specifics, timing, and cost of implementing its requirements,' the statement said.  Royal said it expects to resume its global cruise operation 'in a phased manner with the initial cruises having reduced guest occupancy, modified itineraries and enhanced health and safety protocols.'  The cruise operators suffered a setback recently when the Canadian government extended its ban on large cruise ships for another year."

 

Full story at:

https://www.barrons.com/articles/royal-caribbean-logs-another-huge-loss-as-sailing-timeline-remains-uncertain-51614010437

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Venice: Loving It & Why??!!  Is one of your future desires or past favorites? See these many visual samples for its great history and architecture.  This posting is now at 89,648 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1278226

 

From the Wall Street Journal late this afternoon, below are the charts showing the big upswing in value for the stock of Royal Caribbean.  First is the chart for the most recent five trading days.  Second shows the positive movements during the past month.:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see these visuals larger/better!)

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From the Wall Street Journal this afternoon, they had this headline: “Overthinking Cruise Stocks Could End the Carnival" with this sub-headline: "Cruise line shares are trading up on reopening hopes alone.

 

Here are their story/analysis highlights: “If you are confused by the savage recovery of so-called 'reopening' stocks, you are clearly overthinking things. Yes, sectors like hotels, amusement parks and casinos are soaring, even as revenues remain severely depressed.  Look no further than cruise stocks. Shares of the three major cruise lines are up an average of 53% over the past six months, even though there has been little in the way of an actual restart in the industry. As Royal Caribbean Group’s chief executive officer, Richard Fain, said on his company’s fourth-quarter conference call Monday, most of its ships are still sitting idle after almost a year, and most of its global operations have been suspended at least through April.  Meanwhile, Carnival Corp. apparently has decided that if it can’t sell cruise tickets, it will just sell stock instead. The company said on Monday it was raising $1 billion in common stock, also indicative of strong investor demand for the sidelined industry.”

 

Here is more in how financial "experts" look at the major cruise stock values: "UBS analyst Robin Farley argues that while bookings look to be down for the second half of this year on an absolute basis compared with a normal year, booking volume is likely to be well above service capacity, given cruise lines’ plan for a phased re-entry of select ships at a time. She also noted cumulative advance bookings for the first half of next year are within historical ranges and seem to be at higher prices, a sign of pent-up consumer demand."

 

Full story at:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/overthinking-cruise-stocks-could-end-the-carnival-11614105129

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Amazon River-Caribbean 2015 adventure live/blog starting in Barbados. Many visuals from this amazing river and Caribbean Islands (Dutch ABC's, St. Barts, Dominica, Grenada, San Juan, etc.).  Now at 68,122 views:

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2157696

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The stock market overall and cruise line shares were up, UP big-time today.    

 

From the Wall Street Journal this afternoon, they had this headline: “Dow ends shy of 32,000 milestone, books record as Powell testimony awakes bulls on Wall Street ” with these highlights: “The Dow Jones Industrial Average on Wednesday closed at a record, just shy of the 32,000 milestone, after Federal Reserve officials helped calm frayed market nerves after a run-up in bond yields briefly unsettled the bullish investing mood that’s prevailed for weeks on Wall Street.  Chairman Jerome Powell’s second day of dovish testimony helped give a boost to major benchmarks and the Fed’s No. 2, Richard Clarida, said the economy is primed to show big improvement this year, owing to more Americans getting vaccinated and the passage of fiscal-spending packages.”

 

As shown below from the Wall Street Journal, Royal Caribbean's stock moved up significantly today based on the soon-to-be-approved Johnson & Johnson vaccine.  Progressing??!!  Now at nearly $100 a share.  NCL was up 9.26% today.  But, Carnival was only up 2.08% today.

 

Full story at:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-futures-edge-higher-after-tuesdays-intraday-rebound-11614169893

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

AFRICA?!!?: Fun, interesting visuals, plus travel details from this early 2016 live/blog. At 51,036 views. Featuring Cape Town, South Africa’s coast, Mozambique, Victoria Falls/Zambia and Botswana's famed Okavango Delta.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2310337

 

1484797863_ScreenShot2021-02-24at5_33_11PM.thumb.png.b2dd662b7cc1aeb8578e206ee913a84c.png

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This morning, Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) CEO Frank Del Rio and his CFO gave a quarterly update to the top Wall Street analysts and was honest in admitting that “we’re not sure” as to their position in the cruise world and a re-opening time--table.

 

He cited vaccine progress and the strong potential for "3rd quarter herd immunity”.   There were details regarding new money raised and how they have been stretching out debt maturities.  He notes that it takes up to 90 days to ramp up a ship that has been in a cold lay-up.  They acknowledged that they still have a ways to go as to getting vaccines for their crew.    Clearly, it was noted that it is going to be a “gradual and phased” re-opening for NCLH.  

 

They have raised $6.5 billion from various sources since the onset of the pandemic, allowing the company to withstand a prolonged voyage suspension.  For their fire priorities, they noted that there is a need to “Address Global Port Availability and Travel Restrictions”, “Activate Sales and Marketing Machine and Stimulate Demand” and “Initiate Gradual Phased Relaunch”  

 

As to specific questions raised, Del Rio noted there have been attempts to salvage some of Alaska season and that tourism there is the third largest industry in that state.  The CEO said they are “cautiously optimistic” and "hoping" for Alaska during the 2021 season.    

 

“We are in a more encouraging place than six weeks ago” because of the vaccines, etc., but Del Rio gave no specific guesses as to when and how re-opening will happen.  They noted it would probably take 90 days to complete the CDC-mandated test cruises, but maybe that requirement could be shortened down to 60 days.  NCLH is cancelled through the end of May.  

 

There was much discussion around activity by the 65+ age demographic.  They see this mature group as a key target in bookings for their upscale brands of Regent and Oceania. They see strong resilience in the market, especially by those older who have the time, money and interest in travel.  

 

They noted that NCLH has the youngest fleet, has not any sold any ships, nor has plans/needs to do that.   They view in being the smallest of the "Big Three", that they can be more "nimble".   Overall, it will take six to seven months to ramp up their entire fleet and that it would be done at the rate of a ship a week.  Much will also depend as to when and what ports are opened.  

 

NCLH is not doing as much with FCC these days.  They are just doing cash refunds now.  Their cash burn is down to around $190 million a month.  There are no target occupancy standards/rules coming from the CDC.  They are assuming initially to be doing around a 50% occupancy level for these early, re-opening cruises.  NCLH is not that worried as to demand and filling up their ships. Long-term, they are aiming to do more marketing via the digital world.  They do not believe there will be a need to do cost discounts to spike demand.   They believe demand will exceed supply, plus the pent-up travel desires and the money already in the consumers' pockets.  

 

As a key closing comment, Del Rio said: “We all knew vaccinations would be the deciding factor in achieving the herd immunity that allows us to operate safely.  Just like with the flu, it will be viewed as more of a seasonable event.”

 

From the Wall Street Journal's sister publication of Barron's this morning, they had this headline: “Norwegian Cruise Line Racks Up More Losses as Ships Remain Sidelined. Shares Sink.” with these highlights: “On an adjusted basis, Norwegian posted a fourth-quarter loss of $684 million, or $2.33 a share, down sharply from positive $156 million, or 73 cents a share, a year earlier. Revenue plunged from $1.5 billion to $9.6 million 'due to the complete suspension of voyages in the quarter,' the company said in a release Thursday.”

 

While NCLH is a different company than Royal Caribbean and Silversea, hopefully this background and these comments are of interest and insightful.  And, helpful??

 

Full story at:

https://www.barrons.com/articles/norwegian-cruise-line-racks-up-more-losses-as-ships-remain-sidelined-51614269534?adobe_mc=MCMID%3D47931700801430249238004664831516250621|MCORGID%3DCB68E4BA55144CAA0A4C98A5%40AdobeOrg|TS%3D1614269924

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Lisbon, NWSpain, Bordeaux/Brittany: Live/blog, June 2017 from Portugal to France along scenic Atlantic Coast.  Now at 31,473 views.  Many interesting pictures, details for history, food, culture, etc.:

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2511358

 

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During the past five days of trading, Royal Caribbean soared from just under $80 a share up, UP to more than $93 a share.  That's positive action and it happened before the Johnson & Johnson vaccine was officially approved late Friday afternoon.  

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Panama Canal? Early 2017, Fort Lauderdale to San Francisco adventure through Panama Canal.  Our first stops in Colombia, Central America and Mexico, plus added time in the great Golden Gate City. Now at 30,423 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2465580

 

From the Wall Street Journal, below are the charts for the three major cruise lines and how the stock market viewed their values during the past five days.:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see these visuals larger/better!)

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50901692_ScreenShot2021-02-26at6_01_24PM.thumb.png.bcfdf4160e049ef29cf87cfe01593f9b.png

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Major financial and re-opening news this morning from Royal Caribbean that might affect Silversea and/or be of significant interest.  Both of these are media releases from the company.  We will see later how the media treats this "news".    

 

From the Wall Street Journal this morning, the company press release had this headline: Royal Caribbean Group announces proposed offering of common stock with these highlights: “Royal Caribbean Group today announced that it has commenced an underwritten public offering of $1.5 billion of shares of common stock of the Company. The Company expects to use the net proceeds from the offering for general corporate purposes.”

 

Bottom Line?:  More money!!  Longer and better ability to cover future "cash burn"!!  The RCL stock value was down significantly this morning (even when the overall market was up big-time) as those financial experts recognize this effort waters down even more the stockholder "value" of Royal Caribbean.  However, CASH IS GOOD if a re-opening is going to take longer than desired and expected eleven months ago as the shut-down started.

 

Also, this morning, there was this headline: “Royal Caribbean Says "Shalom, Israel" With Odyssey Of The Seas Debut” with these highlights: “Israeli holidaymakers will set a new course for adventure this summer when Royal Caribbean International begins sailing from Israel for the first time in May. The global cruise line will offer Israelis a combination of 3- to 7-night escapes visiting the Greek Isles and Cyprus on board its highly anticipated, brand-new ship, Odyssey of the Seas. The new sailings will go on sale on Tuesday, March 9.  The itineraries, roundtrip from Haifa, Israel, will include visits to idyllic isles and destinations in the Mediterranean, including Rhodes, Santorini, Mykonos and Athens, Greece and Limassol, Cyprus.”  

 

Michael Bayley, president and CEO, Royal Caribbean International said. "Sailing from Israel is an opportunity we have had our sights on for quite some time. We greatly appreciate the government of Israel for their collaboration and confidence, and look forward to delivering on that promise aboard our newest ship -- the first 'Green Island' at sea."   The RCL release also said: "Residents of Israel will be the first guests to cruise on Odyssey during its inaugural season."

 

ALSO:  "Thanks to the millions of vaccines we have brought, I am proud that Israel will be the first country in the world to launch Royal Caribbean's new flagship. Royal Caribbean's decision to come to Israel is a significant expression of confidence in our policy. This is an important economic, touristic moment for the State of Israel," said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in this release.  AND, this "little detail" was cited: "In conjunction with Israel's health and tourism authorities, Royal Caribbean will be the first to offer fully vaccinated sailings, where both crew and guests above the age of 16 will be vaccinated against COVID-19." 

 

Israel has been a world leader in getting vaccines accomplished at a wide, "herd immunity" level.  Interesting development?  Other reactions and questions?  A sign for what is come for the future around the world?

 

Full release details at:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/royal-caribbean-group-announces-proposed-offering-of-common-stock-01614611108?tesla=y

https://www.wsj.com/articles/royal-caribbean-says-shalom-israel-with-odyssey-of-the-seas-debut-01614585962?tesla=y

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

From late 2018, see “Holy Lands, Egypt, Jordan, Oman, Dubai, Greece, etc.”, with many visuals, details and ideas for the historic and scenic Middle East. Now at 19,445 views.  Connect at:

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2607054-livenautica-greece-holy-lands-egypt-dubai-terrypix’s/

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