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SS/RCCL Finances: Improving, Options, Questions??!!


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1 hour ago, TLCOhio said:

“Royal Caribbean Group today announced that it has commenced an underwritten public offering of $1.5 billion of shares of common stock of the Company.

An utterly brilliant move.  So much smarter than issuing more debt.

I think once operations return to some semblance of normalcy across the fleet in 2022, albeit at a potentially reduced occupancy rate, we'll the see company issue even more shares to retire the relatively expensive debt they acquired during the crisis over the past 12-months.

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On 3/1/2021 at 3:00 PM, Stumblefoot said:

An utterly brilliant move.  So much smarter than issuing more debt.  I think once operations return to some semblance of normalcy across the fleet in 2022, albeit at a potentially reduced occupancy rate, we'll the see company issue even more shares to retire the relatively expensive debt they acquired during the crisis over the past 12-months.

 

Appreciate these very good comments and follow-up from the smart Stumblefoot.  Agree that getting needed cash from stock creates a more confident message than just borrowing more at high interest rates.  

 

From Barron's, the Wall Street Journal's sister publication, they had this headline this morning: “Cruise Stocks Get Upgraded by Macquarie, Because Covid’s Worst Is in the Past” with these highlights: “Macquarie Research has upgraded the cruise stocks to Outperform, asserting that 'most negative catalysts are in the rear-view mirror.'  Based on valuation, Paul Golding and Charles Yu of Macquarie wrote that they see the most upside in Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings, followed by Carnival and Royal Caribbean Group. They upgraded the stocks from Neutral.   Golding and Yu wrote that 'technical instructions from the CDC are also forthcoming and could drive more confidence.'  In an email to Barron’s early last month, a CDC representative wrote: 'Future orders and technical instructions will address additional activities to help cruise lines prepare for and return to passenger operations in a manner that mitigates COVID-19 risk among passengers, crew members, including simulated voyages, certification for conditional sailing, and restricted voyages.'  Although still well below their prepandemic levels in early 2020, the cruise stocks have been moving up as investors get more confident about a reopening of the economy. As of Monday’s close, the stocks of all three companies were up by at least 15% year to date.

 

Full story at:

https://www.barrons.com/articles/cruise-stocks-get-upgraded-by-macquarie-because-covids-worst-is-in-the-past-51614698907?adobe_mc=MCMID%3D33151612543613868540432315688083254519|MCORGID%3DCB68E4BA55144CAA0A4C98A5%40AdobeOrg|TS%3D1614704643

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Completed 2019 summer with Calgary, Jasper/Banff National Parks, Western Canada Rocky Mountaineer rail adventure, Vancouver, sailing up to Alaska on Silver Musse, post-cruise excursion to Denali, etc.  Many visuals and details from our first in these scenic areas!  Live/blog: 

https://boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2682584-live-terryohio-silver-muse-alaska-canadarockies-pix’s/

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Big, BIG stock market drops this morning in values for all there of the major cruise companies.  No details yet, as to why and how.  Will have more later, including, hopefully, the reasons for these significant moves.

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

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7 minutes ago, TLCOhio said:

Big, BIG stock market drops this morning in values for all there of the major cruise companies.  No details yet, as to why and how.  Will have more later, including, hopefully, the reasons for these significant moves.

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

Sadly this is an example of turning cash into stock not being a smart move in such a volatile market and Cruise Lines Business being one of the industries in the World which unfortunately is full of more uncertainty than any other world wide business apart from those involved in international travel such as Airlines.This major uncertainty will prevent many regular SS cruisers from making future substantial commitments when there is no clear path to a resumption of normality for a luxury and expensive line such as Silversea and this will have a major effect on future bookings from an ageing population which makes up the majority of SS cruisers.

 

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5 hours ago, brimary said:

Sadly this is an example of turning cash into stock not being a smart move in such a volatile market and Cruise Lines Business being one of the industries in the World which unfortunately is full of more uncertainty than any other world wide business apart from those involved in international travel such as Airlines.This major uncertainty will prevent many regular SS cruisers from making future substantial commitments when there is no clear path to a resumption of normality for a luxury and expensive line such as Silversea and this will have a major effect on future bookings from an ageing population which makes up the majority of SS cruisers.

 

Appreciate these above great comments and follow-up from our UK friend. Interesting debate with many trade-offs has as to using using . . . "stock floating" . . . VERSUS . . . bank borrowings.  What is the best way to be acquiring more cash during a very difficult and uncertain financial period????

 

On a major "UP" day when the overall U.S. stock market was moving in a positive manner by a significant 2% margin, Wall Street become very negative on the three major cruise ship companies.  See the charts below.  Friday was a very bad day with highly volatile movements.  Clearly, the hardest hit was Norwegian Cruise Lines.  Reactions, comments, speculations for the future, etc.?

 

From MSN News and a Wall Street-related service this afternoon, they had this headline: “Norwegian Cruise Drops After Offering 48 Million Shares” with these highlights: “Shares of Norwegian Cruise Line dropped Friday after the cruise operator unveiled a follow-on stock sale as it aims to resume voyages amid the coronavirus pandemic.  Norwegian shares at last check were down 16% to $37.50, its largest decline since June 2020, according to Bloomberg.  The Miami company will offer 47.6 million ordinary shares at $30 each. Goldman Sachs, the sole underwriter, gets an option to buy as many as 5 million more shares.  The offering is expected to close on March 9.   The company burned about $190 million a month in the fourth quarter as its ships remained docked due to social distancing and COVID-19 protocols. The pandemic wrecked the travel industry as people stayed home.   Last week, the company reported a wider-than-expected fourth-quarter loss.  Norwegian reported a net loss of $758.9 million, or $2.51 a share,  compared with net income of $121.3 million, or 56 cents a share, in the year-earlier quarter.”

 

Full story at:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/norwegian-cruise-drops-after-offering-48-million-shares/ar-BB1ehGwq

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Barcelona/Med: June 2011, with stops in Villefranche, ports near Pisa and Rome, Naples, Kotor, Venice and Dubrovnik. Great visuals with key highlights, tips, etc. Live/blog now at 252,962 views.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1426474

 

 

From the Wall Street Journal, here are the charts for the changing values of the three major cruise line stocks during the past five business days.:

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Terry ....a great subject for debate in a period when no one can predict the outcome of the Pandemic particularly the Cruising business which is restricted by the different rules and conditions that most countries in the World are operating.With no return to normality on the horizon it is questionable how long Silversea can continue accumulating cash by either stock floating or bank borrowing it is difficult to see how Silversea can avoid the third unwelcome conclusion without a return to normality by early 2022 at the latest.Sad thoughts in these uncertain circumstances so look on the bright side and have a great weekend.

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On 3/6/2021 at 5:21 AM, brimary said:

Terry ....a great subject for debate in a period when no one can predict the outcome of the Pandemic particularly the Cruising business which is restricted by the different rules and conditions that most countries in the World are operating. With no return to normality on the horizon it is questionable how long Silversea can continue accumulating cash by either stock floating or bank borrowing it is difficult to see how Silversea can avoid the third unwelcome conclusion without a return to normality by early 2022 at the latest. Sad thoughts in these uncertain circumstances so look on the bright side and have a great weekend.

 

Appreciate these above comments and follow-up from our UK friend.  With due respect, I can see some form of partly "normal", maybe, by the end of this year.   How good of a re-opening,  where it applies and how it is done, etc., are still to be determined.  Right?

 

From the Wall Street Journal's MarketWatch yesterday afternoon, they had this headline: “Cruise stocks price targets boosted on evidence of ‘pent-up demand,’ but analyst won’t say buy” with this sub-headline: "Truist’s Patrick Scholes is neutral on Royal Caribbean and Norwegian Cruise, but bearish on Carnival". 

 

Here are the  key story highlights: “Shares of cruise ship operators rose Friday, after Truist analyst Patrick Scholes raised his price targets, citing evidence that 'pent-up demand' was a real thing, but he still doesn’t recommend investors buy, at least not yet.  Although sales this year through early March are still 'deeply negative' from the same time in pre-COVID 2019, 2022 bookings are looking 30% to 35% above 2019 levels, Scholes said.  On Thursday, Norwegian said it was seeing 'strong demand' for future cruises, with 2022 booking trends showing 'very positive' booking trends.  Scholes said conversations with executives at large travel agencies that specialize in cruises, and from examining 'big data' on future bookings, have reaffirmed that people are itching to go cruising again, especially on higher-end cruises in 2022 and beyond.  'Clearly there is significant pend-up demand, especially from experienced cruisers and those that had their cruises canceled (far less for new to cruise customers) and most notably for seniors on higher-end/premium cruises,'  Scholes wrote in a note to clients.  However, he also noted that travel agency executives expressed frustration that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is essentially 'unwilling to engage in a ‘real’ conversation with the cruise lines regarding technical instructions for what it will take for the cruise lines to begin test cruises,' Scholes wrote.  The CDC currently recommends that 'all people avoid travel on cruise ships,' with the last order issued on Oct. 30 introducing a 'phased approach' for resuming cruises.”

 

Full story at:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/cruise-stocks-price-targets-boosted-on-evidence-of-pent-up-demand-but-analyst-wont-say-buy-11615574854?adobe_mc=MCMID%3D62134893045366951843376139849936833910|MCORGID%3DCB68E4BA55144CAA0A4C98A5%40AdobeOrg|TS%3D1615658314

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Norway Coast/Fjords/Arctic Circle cruise from Copenhagen, July 2010, to the top of Europe. Scenic visuals with key tips. Live/blog at 241,393 views.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1227923

 

From the Wall Street Journal, here are the charts for the changing values of the three major cruise line stocks during the past five business days.  Do these graphs look like a roller coaster??  Lots of ups and downs!!  Overall, the three stocks finished higher for the entire week.:

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18 minutes ago, brimary said:

Great update.   Hope your return to partly normal for the cruising community is more accurate than mine. Fingers crossed!

 

YES, my fingers are also crossed.  Hoping for the best!!  But, as I have noted previously, there will be "bumps on the road" during the next eight months that take us to the start of the key holiday/travel season.  

 

Below is a look at the three major cruise lines stock values during the past three years.  All three stocks have bounced back from their super lows in the mid-late March 2020 period.  Overall, Royal Caribbean has clearly performed best during this most-recent, fourteen-month period.  

 

RCL was at nearly $135 a share in mid Jan. 2020 and dropped down to a little under $24 in mid March 2020.  Now they are at $90.22.

 

CCL was at nearly $52 a share in mid Jan. 2020 and dropped down to $8.80 in late March 2020.  Now they are at $28.46.

 

NCLH was at nearly $60 a share in mid Jan. 2020 and dropped down to a little over $10 in mid March 2020.  Now they are at $30.73. 

 

You do the math!!  Where will the "BIG THREE" stocks be in early January 2022?  In mid 2022??

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Sydney to NZ/Auckland Adventure, live/blog 2014 sampling/details with many exciting visuals and key highlights.  On page 23, post #571, see a complete index for all of the pictures, postings.  Now at 232,536 views.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1974139

 

From the Wall Street Journal, here are the charts for the changing values of the three major cruise line stocks during the past three years.  As detailed above, the most recent fourteen months paint the most interesting picture.  Lots of drama, especially with all of the new shares floated!!??:

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Thanks for the comparisons of the share movements of the major players.Pleased to see RCL only down one third compared with the other two down 50% from a year ago.Sorry Terry I am not clever enough to even attempt an answer to your important question of where they will be in 2022.Just hope it’s no worse position than now and cruising is up and running towards some kind of new normality.

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On 3/14/2021 at 6:44 AM, brimary said:

Thanks for the comparisons of the share movements of the major players. Pleased to see RCL only down one third compared with the other two down 50% from a year ago.  Sorry Terry I am not clever enough to even attempt an answer to your important question of where they will be in 2022.  Just hope it’s no worse position than now and cruising is up and running towards some kind of new normality.

 

Appreciate the above very good follow-up from our excellent UK neighbor.  Agree that RCL has been viewed more favorably by the Wall Street types compared to its two largest competitors.  

 

From the Wall Street Journal's sister publication, Barron's, two days ago, they had this headline: “UBS Upgrades Carnival to Buy, Citing a Brighter 2023 Outlook with these highlights: “UBS has upgraded Carnival to a Buy from Neutral, partly owing to what it sees as an improved longer-term outlook for the cruise industry.  'While the near-term outlook has gotten worse, with continued delays in restart, the longer-term outlook has improved as vaccines become more widespread than what we originally factored into our estimates last year,' observed UBS analyst Robin Farley in a note Thursday.  Her estimates for 2021 and 2022 are lower, she added, 'but our 2023 estimates are higher.'  A plus for Carnival, the largest cruise operator, is that it operates brands that draw customers primarily from Italy, Germany, and the U.K.   'Those countries are likely to allow cruising to restart before the US, [and] we are bumping up CCL estimates to include more relative recovery than previously,' Farley wrote, adding that a resumption of cruising is more likely to occur late in the third quarter–as opposed to the second quarter previously.   The industry is awaiting new guidelines from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on when it will allow large cruise ships to resume sailings in and out of U.S. ports.  Carnival's stock is up more than 30% this year as investors get more optimistic about the economy reopening.”

 

Full story at:

https://www.barrons.com/articles/ubs-upgrades-carnival-to-buy-citing-a-brighter-2023-outlook-51616078484?adobe_mc=MCMID%3D33151612543613868540432315688083254519|MCORGID%3DCB68E4BA55144CAA0A4C98A5%40AdobeOrg|TS%3D1616079368

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Venice: Loving It & Why??!!  Is one of your future desires or past favorites? See these many visual samples for its great history and architecture.  This posting is now at 89,769 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1278226

 

From the Wall Street Journal, here are the charts for the sliding values of the three major cruise line stocks during the past five days.  Continued drama and uncertainty??:

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From Wall Street Journal two days ago, they had this headline on a company press release saying: “Royal Caribbean Group announces proposed offering of senior unsecured notes” with these highlights: “Royal Caribbean Group  today announced that it has commenced a private offering of $1.25 billion aggregate principal amount of senior unsecured notes due 2028 to be issued by the Company.  The Company intends to use the proceeds from the sale of the Notes to repay principal payments on debt maturing or required to be paid in 2021 and 2022, and the remaining for general corporate purposes.”

 

Clearly, these major cruise lines are working hard to shore up their financial positions and be able to sustain future "CASH-BURN".  Fair or unfair summary?

 

Below are the stock charts for the three major cruise lines during this past week. On March 15, Royal Caribbean was at $96.55.  Today they were down to $84.56.  That's a drop of $11 per share (or 10.4% negative) in less than two weeks.  What are the financial experts in the markets seeing and why are they betting in a negative manner?

 

Full story at:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/royal-caribbean-group-announces-proposed-offering-of-senior-unsecured-notes-01616592928?tesla=y

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Amazon River-Caribbean 2015 adventure live/blog starting in Barbados. Many visuals from this amazing river and Caribbean Islands (Dutch ABC's, St. Barts, Dominica, Grenada, San Juan, etc.).  Now at 68,211 views:

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2157696

 

From the Wall Street Journal, here are the charts for the sliding values of the three major cruise line stocks during the past five days.  More question??.:

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From TheStreet financial publication this morning, they had this headline: “Market Recap With Jim Cramer: Discord, Cruise Stocks with these highlights: “Stocks finished higher on Friday as investors cheered progress on vaccine distribution and optimism about the prospects that the economy would recover strongly from the coronavirus pandemic grew. Cramer says to wait to buy cruise stocks due to potential turbulence as we transition from stay-at-home stocks to reopening stocks.  'Now might be the time to hold off because the reopening isn't going as smoothly as planned,' he says. Major cruise line stocks such as Carnival , Royal Caribbean Cruises  and Norwegian Cruise Line fell this past week after the CDC said the ban on U.S. cruises until Nov. 1 is still in place.

 

YES, there are many doubts and questions as to exactly WHEN the CDC will allow the cruise lines to start up their operations.  This explains much as to why the cruise stocks have slide backward during the past two weeks at the same time as vaccines levels have moved upward in the U.S..  

 

Full story at:

https://www.thestreet.com/jim-cramer/market-recap-jim-cramer-cruise-stocks-spacs-tesla-wells-fargo-microsoft-discord

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

AFRICA?!!?: Fun, interesting visuals, plus travel details from this early 2016 live/blog. At 51,138 views. Featuring Cape Town, South Africa’s coast, Mozambique, Victoria Falls/Zambia and Botswana's famed Okavango Delta.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2310337

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For this past week, the stock prices for the three major cruise lines, including the parent of Silversea, moved upward!!  See below.  With more people being vaccinated in the U.S. and U.K., is this the real reason for Wall Street to be issuing such a good sign of value movement in a positive direction?  

 

BUT, Covid variants were moving up sharply in parts of our country, plus France is shutting down for a whole month, etc.  Like a roller-coast ride, nothing is all moving in just one, clear direction??!!

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Kotor/Montenegro:  Exciting visual samples, tips, details, etc., for this scenic, historic location. Over 48,189 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1439193

 

From the Wall Street Journal, here are the charts for the upward-moving values of the three major cruise line stocks during the past week.  Is this a positive sign??.:

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From former USA Today travel writer Gene Sloan this morning, he had this headline: “With the addition of yet another giant new cruise ship, Royal Caribbean passes Carnival to have the world’s largest fleet” with these highlights: “Royal Caribbean is now the King of Ocean Cruise Lines when it comes to fleet size.  The Miami-based cruise brand this week pulled ahead of longtime rival Carnival Cruise Line when measured by ship count by taking delivery of a 25th vessel — the 4,180-passenger Odyssey of the Seas.  The addition of the 16-deck-high, 1,138-foot-long ship — one of the largest cruise vessels ever built — cements Royal Caribbean’s position as the world’s largest cruise line. Even before this week, Royal Caribbean already boasted about 18% more passenger capacity than Carnival due to the fact that its ships on average are bigger and hold more people. But the two lines were tied when it came to fleet size with 24 ships each.  Both Royal Caribbean and Carnival have shrunk their fleet size over the past year as they cut costs to stay afloat during the coronavirus-caused cruising shutdown. But Royal Caribbean has shed fewer ships than Carnival, helping it to pull ahead of the latter line in fleet size.  Going into the coronavirus-caused cruise shutdown, Carnival had 27 vessels — one more than Royal Caribbean, which had 26 vessels.  Carnival has since retired four of its older vessels while adding a single vessel, the 5,250-passenger Mardi Gras.  Royal Caribbean only has removed two vessels from its fleet.

 

Full story at:

https://thepointsguy.com/news/royal-caribbean-biggest-cruise-ship-fleet/

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Dubrovnik!  Nice visual samples, tips, details, etc., for this super scenic and historic location. Over 47,814 views.    

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1439227

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Terry..once again many thanks for all your detailed updates which help to assess the current circumstances in a meaningful manner.Forecasting the ultimate outcome which I am happy to leave to the experts is the difficult problem for those directly involved in the Cruise Industry in plotting a route ahead.Hope the Silversea Management can find a route ahead which will enable all the loyal supporters to start again with the wonderful experiences we have all been fortunate to enjoy in the past.

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23 hours ago, brimary said:

Terry..once again many thanks for all your detailed updates which help to assess the current circumstances in a meaningful manner. Forecasting the ultimate outcome which I am happy to leave to the experts is the difficult problem for those directly involved in the Cruise Industry in plotting a route ahead.Hope the Silversea Management can find a route ahead which will enable all the loyal supporters to start again with the wonderful experiences we have all been fortunate to enjoy in the past.

 

Appreciate these kind comments and follow-up from our savvy UK friend.  Not sure if my limited brain and/or any "experts" can predict exactly when and how things will start moving back to some form of "normal"??!!  It is all, mostly, a big mystery in king through uncharted waters.

 

From the Wall Street Journal"s sister publication of Barron's late this morning, they had this headline: “The CDC Didn’t Say When Cruises Can Start Again. Why Carnival and Other Stocks Are Gaining.” with these highlights: “Cruise stocks were up at least 5% in early trading even as one Wall Street analyst said Friday’s update of the CDC’s conditional sailing order for cruise ships 'fell short of expectations for the industry and investors.'  The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s update did not specify when sailing out of U.S. reports will resume.  'With no timing component, and only incremental in nature, this update disappointed the industry,' observed Brandt Montour of J.P. Morgan in a research note.  The cruise stocks, however, climbed Monday amid a rally for the broader market.  Separately, in a letter to the CDC on Monday, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings CEO Frank Del Rio said the company will require '100% vaccination of guests and crew during initial relaunch consistent with CDC guidance on international travel.' ”

 

Full story at:

https://www.barrons.com/articles/cruise-shares-rally-even-as-updated-no-sail-order-fails-to-clarify-timing-51617633538?adobe_mc=MCMID%3D33151612543613868540432315688083254519|MCORGID%3DCB68E4BA55144CAA0A4C98A5%40AdobeOrg|TS%3D1617637000

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Athens & Greece: Many visuals, details from two visits in a city with great history, culture and architecture.  Now at 38,044 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1101008

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Posted (edited)

From the Wall Street Journal's sister publication, Barron's, they had late this afternoon a headline of: “Cruise Line Stocks Are Riding a Wave. Here’s How They Could Sink” with these highlights: “Few industries have raised as much money during the pandemic as the cruise-line companies.  Facing a virtual shutdown and suffering heavy losses, the three dominant cruise-line operators have raised a total of about $40 billion through debt and equity sales.  Unlike the U.S. airline industry, cruise-line companies were pretty much on their own and received no financial help from the federal stimulus bills. Why? While the companies operate out of Florida, they are domiciled offshore in tax havens and pay no material U.S. income taxes.  The debt and equity sales have left the three companies with ample cash to ride out the downturn, but they have come at a price. They will cut into investor returns because of higher interest expenses and a sharp increase in shares outstanding.  Carnival’s debt, for instance, is expected to rise to about $23 billion by the end of its current fiscal year in November, up from $11 billion at the end of 2019.  The bull case is that the cruise lines will benefit from a huge pent-up demand as more people are vaccinated and the economy opens up. Investors have been willing to shrug off the losses—this past week, Carnival reported a $2 billion loss for the first quarter—and are looking ahead to a full return to voyages.  'There’s definitely a reopening and momentum trade going on here,' says Patrick Scholes, an analyst at Truist Securities. 'The market is baking in a full return to sailing by sometime early next year, which is questionable, and that 2023 not only will be a normal year but one that is better than 2019, which is also questionable.' ”

 

Below are the charts for the how Wall Street viewed the values of the three major cruise ship stocks during this past week.

 

Full story at:

https://www.barrons.com/articles/cruise-line-stocks-are-riding-a-wave-heres-how-they-could-sink-51618005227

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Lisbon, NWSpain, Bordeaux/Brittany: Live/blog, June 2017 from Portugal to France along scenic Atlantic Coast.  Now at 31,551 views.  Many interesting pictures, details for history, food, culture, etc.:

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2511358

 

From the Wall Street Journal, here are the charts for the "roller-coast" ride of up-and-down values of the three major cruise line stocks during the past week.  When and when are the direction headed for the future??.:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see these visuals larger/better!)

1275026550_ScreenShot2021-04-09at6_27_53PM.thumb.png.dd44c452dc73c6f3e27f5f035e62efe3.png

 

508180982_ScreenShot2021-04-09at6_28_35PM.thumb.png.224daacce1f8875acbbc4204b3e183f0.png

 

1053360317_ScreenShot2021-04-09at6_29_03PM.thumb.png.316b332cf138c7840a2fbb4395b8027f.png

Edited by TLCOhio
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Below are the stock market chart to update the three major cruise line values and activities during the past week.  Since early Wednesday am, it has been a downward slide, even with the overall market being up, UP to higher levels.  

 

From a company press release sent to the Wall Street Journal and other media today, they had this headline: “Norwegian Cruise Line Requests Response from CDC on Company's Plan to Restart Cruising from U.S. Ports” with these highlights: “Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings, today sent a reminder letter to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention requesting a response to the Company's previously submitted plan to resume cruise operations from U.S. ports in July. The Company strongly believes that by requiring mandatory vaccinations for guests and crew on initial voyages, in addition to comprehensive protocols including universal COVID-19 testing, the plan shares in the spirit and exceeds the intent of the CDC's Conditional Sailing Order to advance mutual public health goals and protect guests, crew and the communities visited. As such, the Company continues to be optimistic the CDC will agree that this plan eliminates the need for the CSO and therefore, strongly requests the lifting of the order for Norwegian's vessels, allowing them to cruise from U.S. ports starting July 4.”

 

Sorry, NCL, your reminder to the CDC seems a little desperate.  The CDC has not forgotten you and the cruise industry.  With the J&J vaccine shut-down and rising case levels, they have been busy this past week focused more on other, higher-priority  challenges.  Are my comments unfair or missing something else?

 

Full story at:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/norwegian-cruise-line-holdings-ltd-requests-response-from-cdc-on-company-s-plan-to-restart-cruising-from-u-s-ports-as-outlined-on-april-5th-01618520828?tesla=y

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Panama Canal? Early 2017, Fort Lauderdale to San Francisco adventure through Panama Canal.  Our first stops in Colombia, Central America and Mexico, plus added time in the great Golden Gate City. Now at 30,527 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2465580

 

From the Wall Street Journal, here are the charts for the "sliding" ride downward for the values of the three major cruise line stocks during the past week.:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see these visuals larger/better!)

992307351_ScreenShot2021-04-16at5_12_16PM.thumb.png.9930b998e979b76818df18d180a29fdf.png

 

740724571_ScreenShot2021-04-16at5_12_58PM.thumb.png.58633cdf0a644c8e5bdb23aa2ef83370.png

 

808288361_ScreenShot2021-04-16at5_13_34PM.thumb.png.ceef688f765c79343102aafd5dcba3ed.png

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1 hour ago, TLCOhio said:

Sorry, NCL, your reminder to the CDC seems a little desperate.  The CDC has not forgotten you and the cruise industry.  With the J&J vaccine shut-down and rising case levels, they have been busy this past week focused more on other, higher-priority  challenges.

I think you hit the nail on the head Terry, the news has not been good this week.

Reading and watching various news sources, it seems generally agreed that the JnJ vaccine will be brought back, with some additional warnings, etc.

OK, fine, but just DO IT for goodness sake.

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 4/16/2021 at 7:26 PM, QueSeraSera said:

I think you hit the nail on the head Terry, the news has not been good this week.

Reading and watching various news sources, it seems generally agreed that the JnJ vaccine will be brought back, with some additional warnings, etc.  OK, fine, but just DO IT for goodness sake.

 

Appreciate these great above comments and follow-up from our Virginia "neighbor".  Yes, glad that the J&J vaccine is back on the approved listing.  BUT, taking it off the market for that time period did create serious doubts and many questions for some as to whether or not folks will want to  participate in these vaccine efforts.  Not good news for achieving "herd immunity", whatever that medical term means in this confusing and complicated situation.  

 

From the Wall Street Journal's sister publication, Barron's, last Wednesday, they had this headline: “Buy Norwegian Stock Because It Could Be Best-Positioned for a Return to Seas” with these highlights: “A Wall Street analyst has upgraded Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings to Buy, partly because its customer mix should allow it to launch vaccine-only cruises.  In a note Tuesday, Goldman Sachs analyst Stephen Grambling wrote that 'the bottom-line is NCLH is poised to see fundamentals inflect once sailings resume, with pent-up leisure demand driving a recovery in net yields beyond pre-pandemic levels at the same time that net cruise costs ex-fuel will be slower to bounce back.'  Yields are essentially a measure of how much revenue a cruise operator generates per unit sold, in this case a berth. With its focus more on upscale and luxury brands, Norwegian has traditionally had the highest yields among its peers.  Grambling added that Norwegian, with its smaller fleet, greater focus on North American customers and more limited passengers under 16 years of age, has 'greater flexibility to adjust to [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention] guidelines and/or begin ‘vaccine only’ sailings.' ”

 

Interesting speculation??!!  Agree or disagree?

 

Full story at:

https://www.barrons.com/articles/norwegian-cruise-line-is-best-positioned-for-a-return-to-seas-says-goldman-analyst-its-a-buy-51619017400?adobe_mc=MCMID%3D33151612543613868540432315688083254519|MCORGID%3DCB68E4BA55144CAA0A4C98A5%40AdobeOrg|TS%3D1619454032

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

From late 2018, see “Holy Lands, Egypt, Jordan, Oman, Dubai, Greece, etc.”, with many visuals, details and ideas for the historic and scenic Middle East. Now at 19,659 views.  Connect at:

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2607054-livenautica-greece-holy-lands-egypt-dubai-terrypix’s/

 

From the Wall Street Journal, here are the charts for the past month for the values of the three major cruise line stocks.  During the past week, the trends were more upward, including this morning.  Overall, you can see that "up-and-down" cycles during the past 30 days.  Like a roller-coaster?:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see these visuals larger/better!)

1968798134_ScreenShot2021-04-26at12_17_13PM.thumb.png.4f02b0718080f1507088d8b44df6f917.png

 

790812645_ScreenShot2021-04-26at12_17_53PM.thumb.png.197567be037d8151813b3ae565e69098.png

 

1667088521_ScreenShot2021-04-26at12_20_21PM.thumb.png.22796beddbbc169d902274f48302763a.png

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4 hours ago, TLCOhio said:

With its focus more on upscale and luxury brands, Norwegian has traditionally had the highest yields among its peers.

Thanks Terry, I’ve been lurking/following, and appreciate your updates. 

I’m not a stock analyst (thank goodness!), but really see NCLH/Oceania/Regent as severe laggards in getting ships back sailing.  Seems like Silversea, Crystal, and Seabourn are getting things back in motion, thus peeling off Regent cruisers who are looking to get back ASAP.  I’m holding a Regent booking, but getting a lot more serious about cancelling it and getting onto Silversea instead.   Also have other bookings, but not trusting in Regent at this point with their poor communications and lack of action.   

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On 4/26/2021 at 5:35 PM, johng75370 said:

Thanks Terry, I’ve been lurking/following, and appreciate your updates.  I’m not a stock analyst (thank goodness!), but really see NCLH/Oceania/Regent as severe laggards in getting ships back sailing.  Seems like Silversea, Crystal, and Seabourn are getting things back in motion, thus peeling off Regent cruisers who are looking to get back ASAP.  I’m holding a Regent booking, but getting a lot more serious about cancelling it and getting onto Silversea instead.   Also have other bookings, but not trusting in Regent at this point with their poor communications and lack of action.   

 

Appreciate these above comments and follow-up.  Keep it coming.  Great sharing!!

 

During this week with the Wednesday night announcement from the CDC and Thursday morning's Wall Street analysis update by Royal Caribbean/Silversea executives, there was a brief uptick in stock values.  But, then later on Thursday and Friday, values slide slowly downward.  Can I explain it?  Not really.  Ant others have good guesses and smart speculation?

 

From the Wall Street Journal's MarketWatch this past week, they had this headline: “Cruise stocks mostly higher after CDC’s ‘very constructive’ letter, Royal Caribbean results” with these highlights: “Shares of cruise operators traded mostly higher Thursday, as upbeat government guidance on the potential restart of U.S. sailings in the coming months and a narrower-than-expected first-quarter loss reported by Royal Caribbean Group gave investors reason to cheer.  Royal Caribbean Chief Executive Richard Fain said in the company’s post-earnings conference call with analysts that in a letter to cruise executives Wednesday evening, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued “multiple, very constructive clarifications” on its conditional sail order, as the suspensions of U.S. sailings has passed the one-year mark.  While there are still a 'great many details' to be provided, he said the CDC’s guidance provides a 'clear and achievable pathway' toward a return to cruising in the near future.  'It could be possible to restart cruising by mid-July,' Fain said.”

 

In my view and based on what CEO Fain said, "things" will re-start in mid-July, but it will be slow and gradual.  ALL of this will take time, especially to restore full customer confidence and worldwide safety and high health standards for many of the distant countries that Silversea fans like to be exploring.  Right or wrong??

 

Many more financial details in this full story at:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/cruise-stocks-mostly-higher-after-cdcs-very-constructive-letter-royal-caribbean-results-11619711072

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Completed 2019 summer with Calgary, Jasper/Banff National Parks, Western Canada Rocky Mountaineer rail adventure, Vancouver, sailing up to Alaska on Silver Musse, post-cruise excursion to Denali, etc.  Many visuals and details from our first in these scenic areas! Live/blog: 

https://boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2682584-live-terryohio-silver-muse-alaska-canadarockies-pix’s/

 

From the Wall Street Journal, here are the charts for the past week for the values of the three major cruise line stocks.:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see these visuals larger/better!)

556064193_ScreenShot2021-05-01at9_07_18AM.thumb.png.58978cc7d8b211544c2c31f5ebc23525.png

 

1020349593_ScreenShot2021-05-01at9_07_50AM.thumb.png.e30ed6a81864735bb38dc8a64132066b.png

 

1722369715_ScreenShot2021-05-01at9_08_20AM.thumb.png.476c165122a98b191cabd472d55b109d.png

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Significant drops in cruises ships stock values this morning.  Not sure or clear as to exactly why.  Any guesses or speculation? 

 

From MSN News and this web stock market media source, they had this headline: “What Is Royal Caribbean Going to Do With $5.1 Billion in Cash? with these highlights: “The U.S. Centers for Disease Control's decision to allow cruise ships to resume sailing by mid-July comes at just the right time for Royal Caribbean , which just reported a $1.1 billion adjusted loss for the first quarter.  While no one expected the cruise line operator to really do any better, it can only survive so long producing billion-dollar losses quarter after quarter. The real benefit, though, is that the resumption of voyages comes as Royal Caribbean has accumulated a large stash of cash.  With $5.1 billion in the bank (but $20.7 billion in debt to go with it), the cruise ship owner looks like it has the financial means available to finish riding out this storm.”

 

Here is more from this analysis: "So where is Royal Caribbean going to spend its billions? Just keeping its ships in port costs money, and it estimated its cash burn rate was running between $250 million and $290 million a month.  Now that it's going back to sailing -- and had begun preparations for sailing from international ports before the CDC granted permission to sail out of U.S. ports -- the costs don't go away, but actually rise.   It expects its capital expenditures to be $1.1 billion for the rest of the year, and having taken possession of a new vessel in the first quarter and expecting to bring in a second one in the fourth (plus two new scheduled deliveries in 2022), it's going to see its expenses rise further, though it says it can't make an estimate right now on the amount."

 

Full story at:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/what-is-royal-caribbean-going-to-do-with-2451-billion-in-cash/ar-BB1gj3tB?ocid=BingNewsSearch

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Barcelona/Med: June 2011, with stops in Villefranche, ports near Pisa and Rome, Naples, Kotor, Venice and Dubrovnik. Great visuals with key highlights, tips, etc. Live/blog now at 253,443 views.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1426474

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1 hour ago, TLCOhio said:

Any guesses or speculation? 


There was news from Secretary Yellen that rates might rise to keep the economy from overheating as it comes out of covid shutdown. Since the cruise lines are debt heavy, that probably had an negative effect on their stock price. 

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