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SS/RCCL Finances: Improving, Options, Questions??!!


TLCOhio
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31 minutes ago, Reef Knot said:

Can only think that maybe the rise in the oil price will affect operating costs?

 

Or that parts of the world important for cruising will be slower to r-open to travel than was earlier hoped/expected, which will slow the return to "normal" capacity for the cruise lines?

 

Or that the added costs of retrofits to ship ventilation systems, medical facilities, etc., and the added costs for PPE, cleaning supplies, etc. will increase operating expenses and dampen profits for awhile?

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3 hours ago, cruiseej said:

 

Or that parts of the world important for cruising will be slower to r-open to travel than was earlier hoped/expected, which will slow the return to "normal" capacity for the cruise lines?

 

Or that the added costs of retrofits to ship ventilation systems, medical facilities, etc., and the added costs for PPE, cleaning supplies, etc. will increase operating expenses and dampen profits for awhile?

All good points 👍

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22 hours ago, cruiseej said:

Or that parts of the world important for cruising will be slower to r-open to travel than was earlier hoped/expected, which will slow the return to "normal" capacity for the cruise lines?   Or that the added costs of retrofits to ship ventilation systems, medical facilities, etc., and the added costs for PPE, cleaning supplies, etc. will increase operating expenses and dampen profits for awhile?

 

Excellent points above by our "neighbor" from the Philadelphia suburbs, plus smart comment by Reef Knot about rising oil prices.  Keep up the great sharing.  

 

In the past three days, the cruise stocks continue to slide downward.  The continued spread of Covid and the variants do not help inspire confidence and trust.  Plus, noticed this morning that no spectators will be allowed at the Tokyo Olympics starting later this month.  

 

Not good or positive news headlines??!!

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

AFRICA?!!?: Fun, interesting visuals, plus travel details from this early 2016 live/blog. At 51,444 views. Featuring Cape Town, South Africa’s coast, Mozambique, Victoria Falls/Zambia and Botswana's famed Okavango Delta.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2310337

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From the Wall Street Journal's sister publication, Barron's, this morning, they had this headline: “For Travel and Leisure Stocks, This Summer Has Been No Vacation with these highlights: “After surging late last fall on encouraging Covid vaccine news, many travel and leisure stocks in recent months have taken a trip to the land of negative returns.  Travel-related stocks like Royal Caribbean Group have all lagged behind the market since the end of February.  On Thursday, these trends continued as the sector fell more than the broader market.  One concern weighing on these stocks: the fast-spreading Delta variant, another reminder that the battle against Covid isn’t over.  Still, 'the fact that it’s been a very broad-based selloff from the highs tells me there are multiple factors,' says Chris Woronka, a leisure and hotel analyst at Deutsche Bank.  Woronka and others point to a host of potential factors, among them the notion that many of these stocks got ahead of themselves as recovery plays and became too pricey."

 

Here is more from their analysis/story:  "Royal Caribbean’s Celebrity Edge embarked from Fort Lauderdale, Fla., on June 26, the first departure from a U.S. port among the three big cruise operators since March 2020 due to the pandemic. There were no reported Covid incidents during that cruise or several subsequent voyages for the company, but its stock is down about 10% since the day before the first Edge cruise departed.  'We are watching everything and we’re really being very careful,'  Royal Caribbean CEO Richard Fain told Barron’s in an interview on June 29, three days after that maiden U.S. voyage’s departure. 'While I understand nervousness on the part of Wall Street, that doesn’t seem to be news to the people booking cruises.' The company’s Florida sailings for July and August are sold out. Another potential worry for travel and leisure stocks: There is 'this realization that this is as good as it gets,' as Woronka puts it.

 

Full story at:

https://www.barrons.com/articles/for-travel-and-leisure-stocks-this-summer-has-been-no-vacation-heres-why-51625835821?adobe_mc=MCMID%3D46394113588256615431317767615324681846|MCORGID%3DCB68E4BA55144CAA0A4C98A5%40AdobeOrg|TS%3D1625863094

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Kotor/Montenegro:  Exciting visual samples, tips, details, etc., for this scenic, historic location. Over 48,400 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=143919

 

 

From the Wall Street Journal, below are the charts for the stock values of the three major cruise lines during the past five trading days.  Today/Friday, the market jumped up significantly, but overall for the cruise stocks the trends had been down earlier in the week.:

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With the overall market being fairly stable in their opening today, the three cruise stocks continued somewhat downward.  Each of these three stocks were down 2-3% this morning as viewed by the Wall Street folks.  Why?  Maybe this below article will give some background as to the factors involved.   

 

From the Forbes business publication this morning, they had this headline: Will Royal Caribbean Stock Rise As U.S. Cruises Finally Resume? with these highlights: “ Royal Caribbean Group has declined by about 4% over the last week and remains down by about 9% over the last month. There have been a couple of factors driving the movement. In late June, Royal Caribbean’s Celebrity Edge set sail from Fort Lauderdale, Florida becoming the first cruise out of a U.S. port with paid passengers since the Covid-19 pandemic began. While this means that the company can start generating revenue from its U.S. cruises after nearly 15 months, investors are likely concerned about a couple of factors, including the emergence of more infectious Covid variants, which could hinder the pace of the cruising recovery, as well as rising oil prices and the current labor shortages, which could impact costs as the company looks to get back on its feet.”

 

Full story at:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2021/07/13/will-royal-caribbean-stock-rise-as-us-cruises-finally-resume/?sh=52ccb34b3cfe

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Dubrovnik!  Nice visual samples, tips, details, etc., for this super scenic and historic location. Over 48,047 views.    

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=143922

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This past week was not good, overall, for the stock market and even worse for the three major cruise ship lines.  

 

Today, RCL was down 2.45%.  That was mild compared to the drop today/Friday by Carnival of negative 4.7% and NCLH dropping 5.4%.  All just in one day!!??   

 

To give perspective, Royal Caribbean had a recent peaked value on June 2, 2021, of $98.96.  In only about 45 days, that is a slide of $26.57 (-27%) . . . down to $72.39.  Aren't you glad you did not buy any of their stock in early June?

 

That previous Forbes analysis might be on track as to the various reasons why the financial types n Wall Street do not sense a quick recovery and business bounce-back.  Am I missing something major?

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Athens & Greece: Many visuals, details from two visits in a city with great history, culture and architecture.  Now at 40,055 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1101008

 

From the Wall Street Journal, below are the charts for the stock values of the three major cruise lines.  First, during the past five trading days, it shows Royal Caribbean.  Then, the final three below charts shows what has happened with the three companies during the longer period of the past three months.  Downward is not exactly a vote of confidence that the re-opening is happening quickly and/or in a low-cost manner.  Right or wrong?:

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1 hour ago, TLCOhio said:

Aren't you glad you did not buy any of their stock in early June?

 

Terry: In anticipation of our Seabourn cruise in late September, I finally bought 100 shares of Carnival a little while back in order to collect the $100 onboard credit which shareholders can receive. Whoops! I bought before the peak in June, but let's just say that as of now the stock purchase has cost me more than the $100 credit I received! 😉 

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On 7/16/2021 at 6:22 PM, cruiseej said:

Terry: In anticipation of our Seabourn cruise in late September, I finally bought 100 shares of Carnival a little while back in order to collect the $100 onboard credit which shareholders can receive. Whoops! I bought before the peak in June, but let's just say that as of now the stock purchase has cost me more than the $100 credit I received! 😉 

 

Agree, I feel the "PAIN" suffered by our Philadelphia-area surburban resident with your stock value sliding.  Now, it is down even more today.  

 

Early this morning, the U.S. stock market is down nearly 2% as these financial experts realize that a full re-opening of the economy will take much longer than had originally been hoped.  In the first couple hours, the three major cruise stocks were down, DOWN even more.  Royal Caribbean and the other two stocks are down around 5-8% this am.  That's a big drop and vote of no-confidence for a reasonably quick cruise re-opening.  

 

From the Wall Street Journal early this morning, as their lead story, they had this headline: “Dow Falls 800 Points, Oil Drops as Delta Variant Sends Investors Into Bonds" with this sub-headline: "S&P 500, Nasdaq slide as investors punish travel shares.

 

Here are some the story highlights: “U.S. stocks, oil prices and government bond yields slid Monday amid anxiety that the spread of the Delta coronavirus variant would hold back the global economy.  Surging cases of the coronavirus in many parts of the world, including highly vaccinated countries such as the U.K., have prompted investors to dial down their expectations of economic growth in the coming months. David Chao, a market strategist at Invesco, said the spread of the Delta variant across Asia, coupled with low vaccination rates and expectations of additional social-distancing measures, has 'taken wind out of the sail for many investors expecting an economic rebound' in the region.”

 

Full story at:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stock-markets-dow-update-07-19-2021-11626680342?mod=hp_lead_pos1

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Lisbon, NWSpain, Bordeaux/Brittany: Live/blog, June 2017 from Portugal to France along scenic Atlantic Coast.  Now at 31,839 views.  Many interesting pictures, details for history, food, culture, etc.:

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2511358

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The stock market trends and Covid situations have not recently been all positive and clear.   Right?

 

From the Wall Street Journal's sister publication of Barron's this morning, they had this headline: Rising Covid Cases Hang Heavy Over the Travel Industry, Again.” with these highlights: “Royal Caribbean Group CEO Richard Fain had been prone to break into song on his company’s blog, crooning 'Oh, What a Beautiful Mornin’ ' in late June after the cruise line launched its first ship from U.S. waters since the pandemic sidelined the industry for more than a year. Fresh off that maiden voyage and with the industry’s restrictions falling by the wayside, Fain gave an encore in mid-July, singing 'I Can See Clearly Now.'  Not so fast, says the Delta variant.

 

Do you agree or disagree with the stock market and others that the future cruise line re-openings are not as clear as they seemed to be a few weeks ago?

 

Full story at:

https://www.barrons.com/articles/bargain-travel-stocks-to-buy-now-51627059332?adobe_mc=MCMID%3D68709578064620619601790091310821588715|MCORGID%3DCB68E4BA55144CAA0A4C98A5%40AdobeOrg|TS%3D1627074725

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Panama Canal? Early 2017, Fort Lauderdale to San Francisco adventure through Panama Canal.  Our first stops in Colombia, Central America and Mexico, plus added time in the great Golden Gate City. Now at 30,706 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2465580

 

From the Wall Street Journal, below are the charts for the stock values of the three major cruise lines during this past month.  During that period, the trends were mostly downward, before going up more recently.  BUT, then things turned down during the past couple of days.  Are these trends clear and easy to understand/explain?:

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Do you agree or disagree with the stock market and others that the future cruise line re-openings are not as clear as they seemed to be a few weeks ago?

 

 The fat lady is still sleeping and the stage is bare.

The virus mutates vigorously , perhaps faster than we can find ways to control it.

Efficacy and longevity of the vaccines is questionable  and the future is guarded at best.

I had some hopes of cruising in a moderately normal world in a few years but now have

no expectation of anything , save hope for survival.

 

 

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20 hours ago, tgh said:

The virus mutates vigorously , perhaps faster than we can find ways to control it.

Efficacy and longevity of the vaccines is questionable  and the future is guarded at best.

 

I guess we have different views of the world…

 

If most people get vaccinated, then the virus will die out because it can't be passed on. 

 

The efficacy of the vaccines is not questionable. In the US, for the past two months, 99% of the people who have died from Covid have been un-vaccinated. Coincidence? Of course not. The vaccines work. Unquestionably. (Working does not mean you can't ever get the virus; it does mean you're unlikely to suffer with significant symptoms, and extremely unlikely to die from it.)

 

The longevity of the vaccines is still unknown. That's because only people who were in early test groups last year have had the vaccine for a year. But if booster shots are needed, then they are available. If we can wipe out the virus in a year or two, then ongoing boosters won't be needed; if not, getting an annual shot for Covid need be no more complicated than an annual shot for flu.

 

20 hours ago, tgh said:

I had some hopes of cruising in a moderately normal world in a few years but now have

no expectation of anything , save hope for survival.

 

The world is certainly not yet "normal", but I expect to be on a cruise in two months, and if all goes well, another three months after that. 

 

I know you're in a country where you currently can't travel, but the odds are good that will change sometime next year. Here's hoping you'll be on a cruise before 2022 is out! 🙂

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Appreciate these various comments and follow-ups.  YES, with the Delta variant and new mask mandates, things are getting more complicated and confused.  Maybe that has impacted cruise ship stock values during the past week??  Friday/today, these stocks dropped 4-5%!!  That's real money!!    See below.  

 

From the Wall Street Journal earlier this week, they had this PR release and headline: “Royal Caribbean Group to hold conference call on business update and second quarter financial results” with these highlights: “Royal Caribbean Group has scheduled a conference call for 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time, Wednesday, August 4, 2021, to provide a business update and discuss second quarter 2021 financial results. The call will be available on-line at the company's investor relations website, www.rclinvestor.com. To listen to the call by phone, please dial (833) 608-1479 in the US and Canada.  International phone calls should be made to (270) 240-0549. The conference call access code is 2368300. A replay of the webcast will be available at the same site for a month following the call.”

 

How will the RCL CEO answer the challenging questions that will be raised by the Wall Street analysts on Wednesday?

 

Full story at:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/royal-caribbean-group-to-hold-conference-call-on-business-update-and-second-quarter-financial-results-01627505869?tesla=y

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

From late 2018, see “Holy Lands, Egypt, Jordan, Oman, Dubai, Greece, etc.”, with many visuals, details and ideas for the historic and scenic Middle East. Now at 19,965 views.  Connect at:

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2607054-livenautica-greece-holy-lands-egypt-dubai-terrypix’s/

 

From the Wall Street Journal, below are the charts for the stock values of the three major cruise lines during the past five trading days,  Downward is not exactly "good", especially during the past two days.:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see these visuals larger/better!)

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From the Wall Street Journal's  publication of Barron's early this morning, they had this headline: “Royal Caribbean Earnings Reveal Larger Than Expected Loss. Its Stock Is Dropping.” with these highlights: “Royal Caribbean stock is falling after the cruise-line operator reported earnings that showed a larger-than-predicted loss.   Royal Caribbean reported an adjusted second-quarter loss of $5.06 a share, missing forecasts for $4.35 a share, on sales of $50.9 million, well below expectations for $152.4 million. The company also said it expects to report a loss for the third quarter and the full year. Royal Caribbean also said it was operating 29 ships that were about 42% full.  Royal Caribbean stock was down 1.8% in premarket trading.  'We’re thrilled to be back on the water at accelerated speed in the U.S. and elsewhere,' Royal CEO Richard Fainsaid in the release. 'After 16 months of being at a virtual standstill and another painful financial result this quarter, the flywheel is clearly picking up momentum.' ”

 

More to come during the 10 am today RCL Conference Call with Wall Street firms. Will listen and report more later. 

 

Full story at:

https://www.barrons.com/articles/royal-caribbean-earnings-stock-51628079322?adobe_mc=MCMID%3D17457994311988872132337339525644541668|MCORGID%3DCB68E4BA55144CAA0A4C98A5%40AdobeOrg|TS%3D1628082743

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Summer 2019 Calgary, Jasper/Banff National Parks, Western Canada Rocky Mountaineer rail adventure, Vancouver, sailing up to Alaska on Silver Muse, post-cruise excursion to Denali, etc.  Many visuals and details from our first in these scenic areas!  Live/blog: 

https://boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2682584-live-terryohio-silver-muse-alaska-canadarockies-pix’s/

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From the financial briefing this morning by the top Royal Caribbean officials, including CEO Richard Fain, my summary and take-away would be, in my words/opinion, things are getting better, but, it is going to take longer.    

 

From Barron's this morning, they had this headline: “Royal Caribbean CEO: Covid Vaccines ‘Are the Ultimate Weapon’ ” with these highlights: Royal Caribbean Group on Wednesday reported the latest in a string of quarterly losses due to the pandemic, which until recently had mostly shut down the industry and triggered billions of dollars of losses.  Royal Caribbean, however, was the first the big three U.S.-based cruise operators to set sail from a domestic report since the reopening started, having done so in late June.

 

From my notes, here are some highlights: Much was asked about “economics” as relates to the higher costs due to the various Covid preparations required on the ships and needing to operate at lower passenger capacities.  Clearly, the cruise lines are losing money now with these re-start costs and lower revenues coming into their accounts.   BUT,  future optimism was a key future talking points as these executives look hopefully ahead.

 

As to being able for a ship to operate at a break-even point, they noted it takes about six months to get a ship up to a cash-flow positive.   A key point from their CFO is that certain of their ships require only a 35-50% occupancy to achieve a break-even point.  The newest ships have a lower break-even point and can operate more efficiently.    They were honest in noting that their bookings have slowed in the past two weeks due to the Delta variant ramp-up/worries.  As all of these events evolve, they noted cases of  “a blip and a bump” affecting bookings, marketing plans, etc.

 

On a question of steel prices going up affecting new ship construction costs, their CFO indicated that there is no impact as all of those are set-up and protected by long-term contracting.  It was clear that 2022 will still not be a normal year per CEO Fain’s various comments.  There was significant discussions about international travel versus customers looking more at national and closer-to-home cruising options.   There is more focus to later 2022 to when certain international cruises will gain more bookings.

 

There is still pent-up demand, but it was noted that this "will ramp up when the timing is right.”  They look to September when they will up marketing for future cruise bookings.  As to pricing, they noted that people are willing to “spend up”  as they move into the 4th quarter.  The future cruise booking curve has shortened and contracted due to various uncertainties.   Both short-term and long-term factors are at work with consumer as to booking timings.

 

As to their pricings for bar, excursions, spa, etc., they note that consumers are being smart. Yes, consumers will up spending significantly.  There is wealth and demand.  They are seeing it, but they do not want to be too aggressive in uping those price margins.

 

They expect to have 80% of their fleet back this fall and in the 4th quarter.  On  liquidity, they stated that they have a "strong position” and cited significant advance deposits coming in to their accounts.  They stated that 80% of their bookings are new, not just FCC conversions.

 

They noted "dynamic and changing factors”, including consumers looking more now at closer-to-home sailing products that are selling better, quicker.

 

In summary, CEO Fain is optimistic and noted how they are focused on being more efficient and re-establishing credibility that cruising is going well.  He pushed the strong consumer interest in their new ships that being placed into service.  Fain also cited their better use of technology as working in their future favor during the re-opening.

   

Sorry for being so long with such a variety of details.  Hope this background is of interest and help.

 

Full story at:

https://www.barrons.com/articles/royal-caribbean-ceo-covid-vaccines-are-the-ultimate-weapon-51628096497?adobe_mc=MCMID%3D10249300861657595120148815011014364367|MCORGID%3DCB68E4BA55144CAA0A4C98A5%40AdobeOrg|TS%3D1628097563?mod=article_signInButton

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Barcelona/Med: June 2011, with stops in Villefranche, ports near Pisa and Rome, Naples, Kotor, Venice and Dubrovnik. Great visuals with key highlights, tips, etc. Live/blog now at 253,700 views.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1426474

 

From the Wall Street Journal early this afternoon, below is the chart for the stock value during the past five trading days,  Downward has been the trend, especially today with the release of this financial quarterly update.:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see these visuals larger/better!)

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From CNBC cable news this afternoon, they had this headline: Royal Caribbean CEO on quarterly earnings and future outlook with various questions and highlights as to the slower than originally-planned re-opening.  Listen to this segment to gain a fuller flavor for his outlook during the months ahead.  

 

Royal Caribbean, including Silversea, now has 42% of their overall fleet operational.  They expect to be at 100% by the Spring of 2022.  Fain admitted that these challenges have been "longer-lasting" than original expected and he is happy they were able to start U.S. operations in June.  He said they will have 62% of their fleet operating by the end of this month.  It was indicated they they now have $5 billion in liquidity and that they are replacing now much of their earlier debt with lower interest-rate cost borrowings.  

 

Full video at:

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Norway Coast/Fjords/Arctic Circle cruise from Copenhagen, July 2010, to the top of Europe. Scenic visuals with key tips. Live/blog at 242,355 views.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1227923

 

 

From CNBC, here is a visual from during this interview with Royal Caribbean CEO Richard Fain discussing the financial and operating details from today's quarterly report to the Wall Street financial analysts.:

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The RCCL share price currently prices in a full recovery to profitable trading. Way too optimistic in my view. The current stockmarket capitalisation of RCCL is $18.5bn. The balance sheet value at 30 June 2021 was $7.9bn according to RCCL's latest press release. If the shares traded at net asset value they would be around $30 - not $71. As an investor I would steer well clear of investing in any of the 3 major cruise operators.

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On 8/5/2021 at 8:05 AM, philipb said:

The RCCL share price currently prices in a full recovery to profitable trading. Way too optimistic in my view. The current stockmarket capitalisation of RCCL is $18.5bn. The balance sheet value at 30 June 2021 was $7.9bn according to RCCL's latest press release. If the shares traded at net asset value they would be around $30 - not $71. As an investor I would steer well clear of investing in any of the 3 major cruise operators.

 

Agree above that it hard to guess and/or know whether current stock values are too optimistic or pessimistic.  Lots of speculation as to how long the re-opening will take.  

 

After a choppy mid-week, highlighted by the Royal Caribbean financial quarterly report, things bounced back fairly well on Thursday and Friday for the three cruise lines stocks.  See below!!

 

What does this all really mean given the questions about the Delta variants?  Hard to guess!!  What are we missing?

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Sydney to NZ/Auckland Adventure, live/blog 2014 sampling/details with many exciting visuals and key highlights.  On page 23, post #571, see a complete index for all of the pictures, postings.  Now at 233,718 views.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1974139

 

From the Wall Street Journal late yesterday afternoon, below are the charts for the stock values during the past five trading days,  Upward was the trend for Thursday and Friday.:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see these visuals larger/better!)

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From the Wall Street Journal, below are the stock charts for the three cruise lines stocks.  I would, overall, call it a "mixed" week with both ups and downs.  Cruise ship are starting to sail, but the rising number of Covid-19 cases has people concerned.  

 

From the Wall Street Journal this past week, they had a press release with this headline: “Royal Caribbean Group announces proposed offering of senior unsecured notes” and these highlights:  "Royal Caribbean today announced that it has commenced a private offering of $1,000,000,000 aggregate principal amount of senior unsecured notes due 2026.  The Company intends to use the proceeds from the sale for general corporate purposes, including the replenishment of capital as a result of the up to 40% redemption of its 11.500% Senior Secured Notes Due 2025 and the refinancing of future debt maturities.

 

A Billion Dollars is a chunk of "REAL MONEY", but this allows them to lower their borrowing costs from the current, fairly-high 11.5% interest rate.  And, this added borrowing is "unsecured".  However, it seems that the cash markets are open for the cruise lines to keep their "float" flexible and available.  Reactions?   How far ahead do you want to pay-up, in-full, for a cruise in 12, 18 or 24 months?

 

 Full story at:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/royal-caribbean-group-announces-proposed-offering-of-senior-unsecured-notes-01628686851?tesla=y

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Venice: Loving It & Why??!!  Is one of your future desires or past favorites? See these many visual samples for its great history and architecture.  This posting is now at 91,349 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1278226

 

From the Wall Street Journal late Friday afternoon, below are some of the charts for the stock values during the past five trading days,  First is Royal Caribbean since the first of January, 2021.  Mostly, kind of, up.  Then, there are the three charts of the major stocks during last week.  Mostly up early in  the week and then down on Thursday and Friday?:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see these visuals larger/better!)

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3 hours ago, TLCOhio said:

Reactions?   How far ahead do you want to pay-up, in-full, for a cruise in 12, 18 or 24 months?

 

As we’ve seen all along, Royal’s balance sheet has provided the company with the utmost flexibility and continues to do so.  With that said, I still wouldn’t touch the equity regardless of the excellent returns the debt has provided.

 

Could you imagine the shape SS would be in right now with their new builds and conversion of the Wind without the backing of Royal?

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It appears that RCL long Term Debt and Cap Lease Obligations has increased from 8.4B in 12/19 to 20.6B in 6/21.  Short Term debt is down over 1B over the same period which gives the impression that they have extended the duration of the debt also. 

 

 Is there any recent data on the credit spreads, debt rating and total debt history on these companies?  Credit spreads can be early indicator of financial health, especially companies with such high levels of debt.

 

Interesting & Important Analysis "TLC"

 

Thank You.

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From the Wall Street Journal this past week, they had a press release with this headline: “Royal Caribbean Group announces proposed offering of senior unsecured notes” and these highlights:  "Royal Caribbean today announced that it has commenced a private offering of $1,000,000,000aggregate principal amount of senior unsecured notes due 2026.  The Company intends to use the proceeds from the sale for general corporate purposes, including the replenishment of capital as a result of the up to 40% redemption of its 11.500% Senior Secured Notes Due 2025 and the refinancing of future debt maturities.

 

Who on earth would subscribe to these 'junk' bonds? It just goes to show that lessons from previous financial disasters have still not been learned. I am thinking of all that sub-prime lending a decade and more ago which resulted in the financial crash of the late 2000s.

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16 minutes ago, philipb said:

 

From the Wall Street Journal this past week, they had a press release with this headline: “Royal Caribbean Group announces proposed offering of senior unsecured notes” and these highlights:  "Royal Caribbean today announced that it has commenced a private offering of $1,000,000,000aggregate principal amount of senior unsecured notes due 2026.  The Company intends to use the proceeds from the sale for general corporate purposes, including the replenishment of capital as a result of the up to 40% redemption of its 11.500% Senior Secured Notes Due 2025 and the refinancing of future debt maturities.

 

Who on earth would subscribe to these 'junk' bonds? It just goes to show that lessons from previous financial disasters have still not been learned. I am thinking of all that sub-prime lending a decade and more ago which resulted in the financial crash of the late 2000s.

Not to worry- Bernie Madoff's family is selling these securities so they must be safe and a great deal. Sign me up for $1M. 

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1 hour ago, philipb said:

 

From the Wall Street Journal this past week, they had a press release with this headline: “Royal Caribbean Group announces proposed offering of senior unsecured notes” and these highlights:  "Royal Caribbean today announced that it has commenced a private offering of $1,000,000,000aggregate principal amount of senior unsecured notes due 2026.  The Company intends to use the proceeds from the sale for general corporate purposes, including the replenishment of capital as a result of the up to 40% redemption of its 11.500% Senior Secured Notes Due 2025 and the refinancing of future debt maturities.

 

Who on earth would subscribe to these 'junk' bonds? It just goes to show that lessons from previous financial disasters have still not been learned. I am thinking of all that sub-prime lending a decade and more ago which resulted in the financial crash of the late 2000s.

 

 

It was a private placement.  I didn't read the prospectus but there may be additional incentives.

 

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On 8/15/2021 at 5:11 PM, Stumblefoot said:

As we’ve seen all along, Royal’s balance sheet has provided the company with the utmost flexibility and continues to do so.  With that said, I still wouldn’t touch the equity regardless of the excellent returns the debt has provided.  Could you imagine the shape SS would be in right now with their new builds and conversion of the Wind without the backing of Royal?

 

Appreciate ALL of the above great points, especially about the wisdom and good fortune for Silversea in having hooked-up with the deeper-pocked Royal Caribbean.  Silversea being family-owned can sound nice and good, but clearly SS could not have successfully survived without the access to the bigger capital to fund new ships, maintain operations, etc., during this longer-than-expected Covid--19 period of hyper world-wide challenge..  

 

Below the Wall Street stock charts for the three major cruise lines.  Clearly this past week was very "ROCKY" and like being on a wild "Roller Coaster"!! Right or wrong?

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Amazon River-Caribbean 2015 adventure live/blog starting in Barbados. Many visuals from this amazing river and Caribbean Islands (Dutch ABC's, St. Barts, Dominica, Grenada, San Juan, etc.).  Now at 68,738 views:

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2157696

 

From the Wall Street Journal late Friday afternoon, below are the charts for the stock values during the past five trading days.  Not exactly stable and/or consistently upward?  My prediction?  Things will continue "Rocky" until we get through these upcoming Delta-variant and vaccine-challenge periods of uncertainty.  Agree or disagree?:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see these visuals larger/better!)

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489201474_ScreenShot2021-08-21at7_42_46AM.thumb.png.a652d59ad908401f10975612205a640a.png

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   16 hours ago,  Lois R said: 

Hi folks., just a, quick note as the net is spotty. Only 175 on board. Having a good time.  We are at sea today and tomorrow.

 

Super great news for Lois in having only 175 passengerson board of the Silver Muse as she sails up, UP to Alaska.  These wonderful staffing ratio numbers make it like being on your own "personal yacht"!!  Right?

 

But for the bigger, more long-term view of Silversea and Royal  Caribbean and their future/survival, that is less than one-third capacity for the Muse.  How can the cruise lines survive financially with that kind of passenger load?

 

Be interested if Lois can gain some feed-back as to if that low passenger capacity is being most because of lower demand . . . and/or . . . Silversea limiting the numbers for better social distancing?  Or, challenges in getting a larger-sized crew recruited and trained?  Other factors?  Hopefully Lois' skilled asking around can find out more.  Inquiring minds desire added information and background.

 

Last weekend, we had good friends from Central Ohio who got off of the Silver Origin in the Galapagos Islands.  They loved their first sailing with Silversea.  But, there were only 60 passengers on this new, specialized ship that holds 100.  Finances 101??!!  What are right break-even points for Silversea in order to pay off their debts and sustain long-term operations?

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

AFRICA?!!?: Fun, interesting visuals, plus travel details from this early 2016 live/blog. At 51,630 views. Featuring Cape Town, South Africa’s coast, Mozambique, Victoria Falls/Zambia and Botswana's famed Okavango Delta.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2310337

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