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SS/RCCL Finances: Improving, Options, Questions??!!


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On 4/26/2020 at 5:22 AM, UKCruiseJeff said:

 

Thanks,

 

I'm not going to make a general comment about the motives and reliability of market comments or the article itself but as a case in point to "our point", it is interesting that not a single comment or concern regarding the single comment in the item about Silversea that jumps out .........  

 

"The company’s Silversea brand, which caters to ultraluxury customers who tend to skew older, may have a challenging time initially, they observe. But that brand accounts for less than 2% of Royal Caribbean’s capacity, they note."

 

So, if a disposal of assets were being considered to raise ESSENTIAL cash then (a) only a 2% loss of capacity of (b) older passengers less likely to be the group that will restart cruising first ie a slow restart whilst draining precious operating cash.   These two factors may or may not be a significant pointer when cash raising options are being considered by the parent company.  There might also be a market for some hugely enthusiastic funders of a restart of what SS use to be many years ago that many original cruisers mourn.

Would Manfredi buy it back?  Possibly at a discount?

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1 hour ago, Emtbsam said:

Would Manfredi buy it back?  Possibly at a discount?

 

Could you imagine what might happen if an operator such as Seadream tried to secure say Shadow and Whisper? 

 

That might be a product to bring back customers who felt that ultra-luxury was much more important than competing on price.

 

But I fanticise .......  🙂

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3 hours ago, Emtbsam said:

Would Manfredi buy it back?  Possibly at a discount?


He sold two-thirds of the company for $1B.  And, if SS hit unspecified performance goals in 2019 and 2020, he could earn 472,000 RCL shares.

 

I have no idea what he spent to acquire 85% of Abercrombie & Kent last year.

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Sensible comment by Philip Aldrick, Economics Editor in the Times today, ‘it’s not the government’s job to bail out a cruise industry that may be dead for a couple of years’. This in the context of how the UK government will have to help the economy get started again after hibernation starts to unfreeze.

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On 5/1/2020 at 12:23 AM, Stumblefoot said:

He sold two-thirds of the company for $1B.  And, if SS hit unspecified performance goals in 2019 and 2020, he could earn 472,000 RCL shares.   I have no idea what he spent to acquire 85% of Abercrombie & Kent last year.

 

Interesting question about Manfredi buying back Silversea from Royal Caribbean.  In checking back, it was unclear as to whether that one billion dollars was paid to him in cash or RCL stock.  My guess is that RCL did it with stock, not borrowed cash.  Today, of course that $1B in stock is worth only a fraction of value compared to back then at the time of the closing.  

 

PLUS, as I re-call a big part of the reason to do this deal was that Manfredi was limited with his borrowing power to finance ALL of the new ships announced and being built and the older ships being re-done.  There are many serious financial challenges and questions!!!   Doubt that Manfredi would be wanting to and/or able right now to borrow that much much cash from banks who would be conservative in financing such higher-than-average risk during these current, uncertain times. But, I don't know Manfredi, nor his financial standing and long-term goals.

 

Great sharing on this thread.  Keep it coming!!  Gives us much to consider during these at-home days. 

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Sydney to NZ/Auckland Adventure, live/blog 2014 sampling/details with many exciting visuals and key highlights.  On page 23, post #571, see a complete index for all of the pictures, postings.  Now at 229,849 views.

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17 minutes ago, TLCOhio said:

...Manfredi was limited with his borrowing power...


Prior to the RCL deal, a marketing promotion came on the scene that has been with us for years; EBB (Early Booking Bonus).  This was due to the banks at that time requiring more capital.  So, even though the EBB is actually characterized as a liability on the balance sheet, it served the purpose of raising much needed cash.

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On 5/3/2020 at 11:56 AM, Stumblefoot said:

Prior to the RCL deal, a marketing promotion came on the scene that has been with us for years; EBB (Early Booking Bonus).  This was due to the banks at that time requiring more capital.  So, even though the EBB is actually characterized as a liability on the balance sheet, it served the purpose of raising much needed cash.

 

Agree above with Stumblefoot that the marketing promo of EBB has been a way to borrow money by Silversea to fund operations and cover some major capital costs.  But, correctly, it is a "LIABILITY" on their balance sheets and a risk to those who have been trusting in paying that far ahead.   Part of yesterday's announcement by NCL as to their "risk of bankruptcy" was accounting boiler-plate required by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and accounting rules. How much is the real risk to us as consumers paying deposits and advanced payments?  That's an unknown now, especially with the risks rising that these limits on sailing could run later into the summer, fall or next year.  Many questions and uncertainty right now.    

 

From the MarketWatch news site this morning, they had this headline: “Cruise stocks rocked after Norwegian Cruise issues ‘going concern’ warning” with these highlights: Shares of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. took a dive Tuesday, after the cruise operator issued a “going concern” warning, citing the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on its business. Norwegian’s warning also weighed heavily on the stocks of rivals Carnival Corp. and Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. The stocks’ selloffs come despite Norwegian also announcing a series of financial transactions that if completed would provide enough liquidity to fund operations even if its cruises remain suspended for over 12 months.

 

Full story at:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/cruise-stocks-rocked-after-norwegian-cruise-issues-going-concern-warning-2020-05-05?adobe_mc=MCMID%3D26590460344851675384236876298279048508|MCORGID%3DCB68E4BA55144CAA0A4C98A5%40AdobeOrg|TS%3D1588783851

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Amazon River-Caribbean 2015 adventure live/blog starting in Barbados. Many visuals from this amazing river and Caribbean Islands (Dutch ABC's, St. Barts, Dominica, Grenada, San Juan, etc.).  Now at 66,245 views:

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2157696

 

From my Wall Street Journal on-line subscription at 12:45 pm today, below are the stock charts for the past week on the three largest cruise ship operators.  After an earlier re-bound, things have been down, down during the past five days.:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see these pictures larger/better!)

735884349_ScreenShot2020-05-06at12_49_26PM.thumb.png.14a2b71993681e9ac6887fe9edb76fa7.png

 

261686003_ScreenShot2020-05-06at12_50_03PM.thumb.png.3d1ecde93b8ff608809963da03df7669.png

 

2095551906_ScreenShot2020-05-06at12_50_30PM.thumb.png.f3507da04e2b9c82c42f9e1fb4be7904.png

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14 minutes ago, TLCOhio said:

 

Agree above with Stumblefoot that the marketing promo of EBB has been a way to borrow money by Silversea to fund operations and cover some major capital costs.  But, correctly, it is a "LIABILITY" on their balance sheets and a risk to those who have been trusting in paying that far ahead.   Part of yesterday's announcement by NCL as to their "risk of bankruptcy" was accounting boiler-plate required by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and accounting rules. How much is the real risk to us as consumers paying deposits and advanced payments?  That's an unknown now, especially with the risks rising that these limits on sailing could run later into the summer, fall or next year.  Many questions and uncertainty right now.    

 

From the MarketWatch news site this morning, they had this headline: “Cruise stocks rocked after Norwegian Cruise issues ‘going concern’ warning” with these highlights: Shares of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. took a dive Tuesday, after the cruise operator issued a “going concern” warning, citing the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on its business. Norwegian’s warning also weighed heavily on the stocks of rivals Carnival Corp. and Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. The stocks’ selloffs come despite Norwegian also announcing a series of financial transactions that if completed would provide enough liquidity to fund operations even if its cruises remain suspended for over 12 months.

 

Full story at:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/cruise-stocks-rocked-after-norwegian-cruise-issues-going-concern-warning-2020-05-05?adobe_mc=MCMID%3D26590460344851675384236876298279048508|MCORGID%3DCB68E4BA55144CAA0A4C98A5%40AdobeOrg|TS%3D1588783851

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Amazon River-Caribbean 2015 adventure live/blog starting in Barbados. Many visuals from this amazing river and Caribbean Islands (Dutch ABC's, St. Barts, Dominica, Grenada, San Juan, etc.).  Now at 66,245 views:

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2157696

 

From my Wall Street Journal on-line subscription at 12:45 pm today, below are the stock charts for the past week on the three largest cruise ship operators.  After an earlier re-bound, things have been down, down during the past five days.:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see these pictures larger/better!)

735884349_ScreenShot2020-05-06at12_49_26PM.thumb.png.14a2b71993681e9ac6887fe9edb76fa7.png

 

261686003_ScreenShot2020-05-06at12_50_03PM.thumb.png.3d1ecde93b8ff608809963da03df7669.png

 

2095551906_ScreenShot2020-05-06at12_50_30PM.thumb.png.f3507da04e2b9c82c42f9e1fb4be7904.png

Old news. NCLH raised over $2billion in an oversubscribed offering and the "going concern" language is gone.

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Below are some details from Royal Caribbean as to their current and future finances, etc..  From their posting early this morning to the PR Newswire, they had this headline: “Royal Caribbean Group Provides Business Update” with certain of these highlights: “booking volumes for the remainder of 2020 are meaningfully lower than the same time last year at prices that are down low-single digits", "booking trends reflect elevated cancellations for 2020 and more typical levels for 2021 and beyond” and "as of April 30, 2020, approximately 45% of the guests have requested cash refunds".

 

Their CFO noted in this release: "Our focus is on bolstering liquidity through significant cost cutting, capital spend reductions, and other cash conservation measures.  In addition, the Company is considering additional financing sources.  As of April 30, 2020, the Company had liquidity of approximately $2.3 billion all in the form of cash and cash equivalents."

 

Here are a few other items outlined: "The Company's ships are currently transitioning into various levels of layup with several ships in the fleet transitioning into cold layup, further reducing operating expenses."  "Eliminated or significantly reduced marketing and selling expenses for the remainder of 2020."  "The Company estimates that its average ongoing ship operating expenses and administrative expenses is approximately $150 million to $170 million per month during the suspension of operations.  The Company may seek to further reduce this average monthly requirement under a prolonged non-revenue scenario."  "The Company has identified approximately $3.0 billion and $1.4 billion of capital expenditure reductions or deferrals in 2020 and 2021, respectively.  The Company believes COVID-19 has impacted shipyard operations and will result in delivery delays of ships previously planned for delivery in 2020 and 2021."  "The Company estimates its cash burn to be, on average, in the range of approximately $250 million to $275 million per month during a suspension of operations."  

 

My sense (and guess) is that RCCL is preparing for a longer-term period than had been originally hoped before they can resume "normal" operations.  Managing "cash flow" and minimizing the "CASH BURN" are clearly top priorities. 

 

Full PR release at:

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/royal-caribbean-group-provides-business-update-301055738.html

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

AFRICA?!!?: Fun, interesting visuals, plus travel details from this early 2016 live/blog. At 49,317 views. Featuring Cape Town, South Africa’s coast, Mozambique, Victoria Falls/Zambia and Botswana's famed Okavango Delta.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2310337

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Hi Terry,

 

It will be interesting to see what the real percentage  of bookings the refunds ends up as.  It stood at 45% of what they knew of at the end of last month and we read on these boards of some rather loose communications with respect to some refund applications being lost or ignored or misunderstood.  I'm both fascinated and bewildered by the number happy to take FCC which it seems to me gives customers an unknown and  questionable advantage compared to fresh later bookings and why those that  have taken FCC believe it is worthwhile and prudent as clearly there is a risk of losing it all. 

 

To be confident of the future, one has to have some spacial awareness and be able to have some visualisation on how this could end well.  I'd really like to see some posts from those that think positively.

 

FCC removes the right to refund and obligates the passenger to take a future booking on the cruise lines terms and conditions as they are now and evolve.  Those conditions already enable the cruise line to reject a booking if a passenger fails to comply with it's conditions.  Those conditions amongst other things mandates now and may in the future that passengers will need to obtain a signed declaration from their doctors stating that they do not suffer from any chronic conditions.  How many passengers of this age group can obtain such a declaration and if so believe it is certain that they can comply with any future unknown health conditions?  I guess that roughly 25% of  over 65's US citizens have diabetes.   More have other "heart conditions" requiring either hypertension or statin medication and a whole heap more.  How many have no notifiable conditions at all and so can be certain of complying with mandated health conditions? 

 

Cruiselines also sensibly insist that passengers have adequate health insurance.  What reliable insurer in the future will provide cover for cruise-based holidays for this type of virus and n ot have future restrictioons built in to cover future unkown viruses (virii?) ?

 

Also for example, on any cruises taken from and back to the UK for the rest of this summer, passengers will need to arrive at least 14 days before the start of the cruise and be locked down in isolation before boarding and when they return to the UK they will presumably be required to take another 14 days of lock-down isolation.  This seems to be increasingly the norm.  Who wants such an experience?   

 

So are there any here that have taken FCC that accept that the onus is on them to comply with terms and conmditions when using their FCC presumably accepting that they may lose it?  If so it would be interesting to read their rationale.

 

It also seems obvious that not all cruise lines will survive this but it seems that most believe that whoever fails it will not be the line in which they have FCC.  But in the event of a cruiseline riding out this storm, how do others think that they can relaunch their products in a way that can keep the lines solvent with all the debt and service the extremely heavy fundings they have acquired?  And what about the quality of what will be offered.  Do they believe that cruiselines will seek to service the debt and attract customers by raising prices significantly?  Or can it only be through deep cuts to variable costs ie the very costs that most influence the quality of experience?   What will be cut that could possibly service such financing costs.

 

It seems to me that the cruise industry will have a slow-start recovery being so reliant on older age groups so how do others believe that the industry can be reignited?

 

And what about the air-travel component.  Will there be empty rows and empty seats and if so what will air-travel cost? 

 

We have heard a lot from posters who can see the difficulties and challenges, a handful of which I have outlined here, but I really would genuinely like to see some more posts from those that can see a different path through this difficult time that gives them reason for their optimism.  Not simply "leaps of faith" but some reasons.  We only learn from those with different opinions than our own and I think that such more optimisitc posts - avoiding simply childish personal attacks - would be really helpful because it might offer an alternative and more positive opinion to balance out the more negative scenarios many envisage.  It would certainly offer the chance to discuss and debate what might be a way forward for the industry that I think many here might find interesting and thought provoking.

 

Safe times and travels all.

 

Jeff 🙂

Edited by UKCruiseJeff
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2 hours ago, UKCruiseJeff said:

We have heard a lot from posters who can see the difficulties and challenges, a handful of which I have outlined here, but I really would genuinely like to see some more posts from those that can see a different path through this difficult time that gives them reason for their optimism.  Not simply "leaps of faith" but some reasons. 

 

Great post - thanks !

 

I'm most certainly not in the 'optimism' camp, being pretty risk averse, so i'm unable to contribute in the manner requested.

 

However  - earlier I read a comment on another board, from the CEO of NCL/Regent which gave an insight into his views on how some of his guests think.

 

Quote - Frank DelRio...

I don’t believe for a minute that the mature audience is not going to cruise anymore,” he said. “These are the most loyal customers. They’ve got the time to cruise. They’ve got the money to cruise and, quite frankly, they’re pissed off that they can’t cruise right now. They’ve got a bucket list. They’ve got a short time left on this planet, and they want to make the most of it.” 

 

In short I think he is saying that many of his guests are happy to take the 'leap of faith', with less concern as to the financial risk.  Some regular posters on that forum are saying that 'he's got it in one' !    

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Add machotspur’s travel insurance concern about lack of Covid19 coverage to Jeff’s reasons for pessimism. I can think of no reason for optimism and the only reasons I can think of for taking a cruise are no concerns about losing a fair bit of money, not being risk averse, or really not caring if you get infected on the ship.
I would wager there are quite a few people out there who fall into one or more of those categories.

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Hooks on which to hang some optimism?

 

First: the discovery/production of an effective vaccine.  It won't happen tomorrow or next month.  But, given the resources being devoted to this matter (and the profits to be earned by successful producer!), I have little doubt that there will be a vaccine available within the next year or so.  Many of us travelled with yellow fever cards.  We had to have smallpox immunizations.  This may be similar.  

 

Second, the discovery/production of a highly effective therapeutic.  Again, perhaps not tomorrow or next month.  But in time (I think/hope) for my next cruise.

 

BTW: Getting annual medical certification of fitness to travel would not be entirely novel.  I have to get such certification for the medical evacuation insurance I carry.  The doctor says s/he does many of these.

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In amongst all the talk of liquidations, refunds, FCCs, insurance and so forth I think bissel's comment about getting infected on board has been overlooked. 

 

Covid-19 will not just disappear at a time convenient to the cruise industry. All it will take is one asymptomatic carrier either at initial boarding or from contact in a visited port and you have several days before that person shows symptoms yet is already infective. 

 

Now then, you're well into your 60s,70s, 80s even, and you get Covid-19. You are at sea for a few days, especially on a TA, and your 02 sats drop, you have difficulty breathing etc. Normally that's a 999 (911 in USA) call and urgent admission. Chances are you'll survive (in the SS age demographic probably 8 or 9 out of 10 don't die but some of them will have suffered some long-term organ damage) - if you have a fully equipped and staffed ITU to look after you. On a ship? Not so much. 

 

So while counting the pennies, cents or Eurocents please don't overlook the underlying cause of all this in the first place and factor your personal wellbeing into the equation along with the financial and 'bucket list' concerns. 

Edited by Tothesunset
Typo.
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41 minutes ago, Tothesunset said:

Covid-19 will not just disappear at a time convenient to the cruise industry. All it will take is one asymptomatic carrier either at initial boarding or from contact in a visited port and you have several days before that person shows symptoms yet is already infective. 

 

 

I agree that the industry is not going to recover this year -- or perhaps even in early 2021.

 

But your doomsday scenario does not allow for the power of medical science and the possibility -- I would imagine likelihood-- that an effective vaccine will be widely available in a year or so, that cruise lines will require proof of vaccination, and that effective and fast acting therapeutics will be available in the event some passenger/crew member still contracts and spreads the virus.

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12 minutes ago, Observer said:

 

I agree that the industry is not going to recover this year -- or perhaps even in early 2021.

 

But your doomsday scenario does not allow for the power of medical science and the possibility -- I would imagine likelihood-- that an effective vaccine will be widely available in a year or so, that cruise lines will require proof of vaccination, and that effective and fast acting therapeutics will be available in the event some passenger/crew member still contracts and spreads the virus.

I hope you are right. And should advances such as you describe be ready in a year's time (cf. HIV, HPV etc) then life can recommence and the situation I described above will be irrelevant. If. 

Edited by Tothesunset
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21 minutes ago, Observer said:

But your doomsday scenario does not allow for the power of medical science and the possibility -- I would imagine likelihood-- that an effective vaccine will be widely available in a year or so, that cruise lines will require proof of vaccination, and that effective and fast acting therapeutics will be available in the event some passenger/crew member still contracts and spreads the virus.

 

Hi Obs,

 

How "doomsday" is it?

 

If with all the power of medical science, when compared to the flu virus for example there is a lot of history and experience worldwide to produce a flu vaccine annually and it is still only 40% effective.  With 'flu, people often have a better set of clues as to who is a carrier as they often cough and sneeze and might be able to avoid many who have it and people who have flu often feel so lousy they stay off work and away from others.  If you are unlucky to catch it it is most unlikely to kill you and it is even possible to get some avoidance of pneumonia. 

 

With Covid-19 it  seems that you can catch it from people who look perfectly well .... even through simply having some fun with kids.  So avoidance seems tougher.  And if there was just a 40% effective rate, would you be happy to accept those odds on a ship with a few hundred people on a TA crossing if there was say a 10& chance of dying from it ?

 

Interested to hear what you think.

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3 hours ago, machotspur said:

 

Great post - thanks !

 

I'm most certainly not in the 'optimism' camp, being pretty risk averse, so i'm unable to contribute in the manner requested.

 

However  - earlier I read a comment on another board, from the CEO of NCL/Regent which gave an insight into his views on how some of his guests think.

 

Quote - Frank DelRio...

I don’t believe for a minute that the mature audience is not going to cruise anymore,” he said. “These are the most loyal customers. They’ve got the time to cruise. They’ve got the money to cruise and, quite frankly, they’re pissed off that they can’t cruise right now. They’ve got a bucket list. They’ve got a short time left on this planet, and they want to make the most of it.” 

 

In short I think he is saying that many of his guests are happy to take the 'leap of faith', with less concern as to the financial risk.  Some regular posters on that forum are saying that 'he's got it in one' !    

 

It's an interesting viewpoint. 

 

If you extrapolated that view and said for the sake of argument, that there was a third of people being "pessimists", another third being "optimists" and the last third being "undecideds" (.... not a bad starting point! ...) then in what was already a competitive market with capacity being added and that therefore had excess capacity it doesn't seem likely to me that even if you could convert all of the the "undecideds" and make them join the band of "optimists" that seems most unlikely to be enough to kick-start an industry.  I think the odds of doing that seem to me not to be something I'd bet on.   I think you'd have to be able to make the product really cheap to do that, an option I don't think available. 

 

As a counter argument to my own, at a time of existential crisis there are also exceptional opportunities for extraordinary management to make changes and decisions that could place themselves in a much better position than they might otherwise be. 

 

In times of extreme change there are also extreme opportunities if you can see them and go for them.  It isn't only you that might be weak but so are your competitors.  So how you position yourself and the changes the crisis allows you to make that you might not be able to otherwise do are unique opportunities.  But, so far I see a lot of management but not a lot of exceptional leadership.

 

Jeff 🙂

 

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19 minutes ago, UKCruiseJeff said:

As a counter argument to my own, at a time of existential crisis there are also exceptional opportunities for extraordinary management to make changes and decisions that could place themselves in a much better position than they might otherwise be.


Rather than reading more posts from those that can see a different path through this difficult time than yours that gives them reason for their optimism, I would genuinely like to see your thoughts relative to the counter argument you state above.  In your opinion, what changes and decisions should a management team make at this time of existential crisis that might place them in a better position moving forward?

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23 minutes ago, Stumblefoot said:


Rather than reading more posts from those that can see a different path through this difficult time than yours that gives them reason for their optimism, I would genuinely like to see your thoughts relative to the counter argument you state above.  In your opinion, what changes and decisions should a management team make at this time of existential crisis that might place them in a better position moving forward?

 

It’s always easy to misjudge posts - so apologies if I have - but yours sounds a bit confrontational.  

 

I’d still very much like to hear those contrary opinions.  That’s why I asked. I think most people ARE interested to read and debate this as it seems to have been divisive with a lack of understanding about what seems like polarised contradictory views. 

 

I’m always happy to debate anything at all when things are welcoming, congenial and genuinely friendly.  

 

Jeff 🙂

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16 minutes ago, Stumblefoot said:


In your opinion, what changes and decisions should a management team make at this time of existential crisis that might place them in a better position moving forward?

 

I think Mr. Stumble makes a good point.  Many insightful and experienced businesspeople post here.   One suggestion might be to introduce some program to encourage people to keep their cash in the company rather than ask for cash refunds.   For example, assure customers that anyone who makes a reservation with FCC will get the benefit of any discounts, price cuts,  benefits or enticements offered to those who reserve later ("a most favored nation" situation).  Or, give people "interest" on their FCC so that their FCC goes up the longer the cruise line holds the money (this would partially assuage the problem where the FCC on the cruise that you just cancelled won't cover the same cruise next year).

 

Or, a decision could be made to cut costs such as the Silver Box, which, from the comments here,  a lot of people don't seem to relish.

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31 minutes ago, UKCruiseJeff said:

...but yours sounds a bit confrontational.  

 

I think most people ARE interested to read and debate this...

 

I’m always happy to debate anything at all when things are welcoming, congenial and genuinely friendly.


My apologies as well, but confrontational is how your posts, in general, come across to me.  So, in using the language of your writing, I was merely holding a mirror to reflect those words back to you.  Ultimately, the purpose was to understand your point-of-view to the counter argument you proposed, because it failed to reveal its substance.

 

Your history here through the years is well worn.  And, if there is one thing I have learned from reading your writing, it is that you certainly hold ideas relative to any question you pose.  So, I thought it only fair to those whom you illicit a response from, in order to debate, that you should share your ideas first relative to the changes and decisions a management team should make at this time.  Because, while I may not believe that “most” people here are interested in such a debate, I certainly owe you the benefit of doubt as to the sincerity of its nature.

 

30 minutes ago, dawntrdr said:

I think Mr. Stumble makes a good point. 
Many insightful and experienced businesspeople post here.


Thanks.  I agree.  There really are so many incredible people here, I just know they have intriguing ideas that I cannot even begin to fathom myself.

 

I truly can only wonder what decisions could be made by any cruise line at this point to ensure the health and well-being of its passengers.  My brain tends to lean to the absurd and generate ideas that are utterly ridiculous that they don’t even make sense, or at least any sense in the present environment of ship design and capacity relative to the spread of known viruses.

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Its understandable this Virus has effected most of the population of this world. Even the ones it has not effected at least know about it. So it is conceivable that with that much brain power all working on one thing, there is bound to be a half-ass cure coming down the pike. No one knows what the future is for this current virus; It could burn its self out, it could mutate to a weaker strain, it could mutate into something very scary or just hang around for a long time. And just to add some gossip. An International Olympics doctor told me they were worried about the seconded strain that may be very different than the one currently, possibly coming next year.

 

Business that relied on tourist will need to re-do their playbook for the short-run and long-run. I was notified that I can't fly to Australia next month to catch a Kimberly cruise. I hear this cruise is still going to take place with just Australian residences. So maybe the cruise companies will need to change in the short run to domestic cruises only? Then expand as countries start to open up…

 

Cruise companies will definitely not be business as usual. They may need to up the anti on FCC, like offering a $10.00 to $20.00 per week credit, given to you onboard as cruise credit to spend. That will entices you to leave your money with the cruise line for as long as possible. If cruises are going to be just domestic they may need to have a drawing every 12 hours and offer a $1,000.00 to guests for onboard credits. That will keep guests interested in daily activities and ships will be able to get rid of products they have onboard.

 

The next 90 days is going to shake out how the hospitality, resorts, Theme Parks, Las Vegas type casinos, international air flights and of course the Cruise lines will attack this. It's just not conceivable for all of them to just sit on their hands for the next year...

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