Jump to content

SS/RCCL Finances: Improving, Options, Questions??!!


TLCOhio
 Share

Recommended Posts

It was a strange, hard-to-explain week for the three major cruise ship companies in the eye of financial investors.

 

As you can see below, Monday through Thursday was down-down-down.  BUT, today/Friday was significant up, UP!!  Hard to know and explain exactly why and how.  Any good guesses as to what was driving this major shift today?

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Sydney to NZ/Auckland Adventure, live/blog 2014 sampling/details with many exciting visuals and key highlights.  On page 23, post #571, see a complete index for all of the pictures, postings.  Now at 234,010 views.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1974139

 

From the Wall Street Journal late this afternoon,  here are the stock charts for the three major cruise lines during the past five trading days. Clearly, it was a choppy and uncertain past week  Right or wrong?:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see these visuals larger/better!)

1829798907_ScreenShot2021-10-01at5_16_33PM.thumb.png.d57ac1e5ff6c590b9c04301d22ad8a23.png

 

411089102_ScreenShot2021-10-01at5_17_11PM.thumb.png.e17821a2157c472c87557cde5255fe12.png

 

765818313_ScreenShot2021-10-01at5_18_03PM.thumb.png.5223985f2809524b27fecdaf2be62e59.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yes.  Great news for the travel industry as well as mankind today.  Merck announced a very successful antiviral for Covid.  In addition to the cruise lines gains airlines were also up 4-6% today.   This drug could be a huge gamechanger in the fight against Covid.  Enjoy the weekend.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/01/merck-to-seek-emergency-authorization-for-oral-covid-19-treatment.html

 

 

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

 From this financial news website and MSN New today, they had this headline: “Why Carnival, Royal Caribbean, and Norwegian Cruise Line Stocks All Just Jumped”. YES, this might explain this stock market jump.  Great, quick follow-up by RetiredandTravel.

 

Here are their story highlights: “You can thank pharmaceutical giant Merck.  This morning, drugmaker Merck announced that its anti-Covid pill molnupiravir has proven effective at cutting the rate of hospitalization and death from Covid by 'approximately 50%' in a Phase 3 clinical trial. And that's only the headline revelation. Read a little deeper into the report, and you'll learn that while a few patients involved in the trial were hospitalized, precisely zero patients treated with molnupiravir died over the 29 days of testing.  True, in this trial molnupiravir was given only to 'non-hospitalized adult patients with mild-to-moderate COVID-19,' but if you are considering these data from the perspective of a potential cruise line customer, here's how things probably look:  If I get on a cruise and suddenly come down with a fever and, taking a test, discover that I've just contracted Covid and am in the early stages of the disease (i.e., still 'mild-to-moderate' symptoms), then it sure sounds like Merck has a pill that can stop Covid in its tracks. It might even eliminate the risk of dying from Covid entirely.   Now, do you think that news like that might make you feel a bit more comfortable about signing up to take a 'Carnival cruise' -- or a cruise with Royal Caribbean or Norwegian, for that matter? I think it might.  While Merck's pill isn't approved for general consumption yet, the fact that 'Merck plans to submit an application for Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) to the U.S. FDA as soon as possible based on these findings' suggests that in the foreseeable future, cruise lines could finally see demand for their services return to something approaching normal once again.

 

Full story at:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savingandinvesting/why-carnival-royal-caribbean-and-norwegian-cruise-line-stocks-all-just-jumped/ar-AAP2NFV?ocid=BingNewsSearch

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Venice: Loving It & Why??!!  Is one of your future desires or past favorites? See these many visual samples for its great history and architecture.  This posting is now at 92,285 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1278226

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Below is the latest for how the financial world views the three major cruise ship companies.  The general trend?  Downward!!  As an example for Royal Caribbean, they move from a Monday opening at $92.77 and then shifted down during the week to $87.73 at Friday afternoon's close of business.  Not sure why.  Any good and smart guesses?

 

From CNBC cable business news Tuesday, they had this headline: “Norwegian Cruise Line set to launch full fleet by April for first time since pandemic no-sail orders, CEO says” with these highlights: “Norwegian Cruise Lines currently has eight ships in service across its three brands.  The cruise line’s full fleet of 28 ships will resume service by April 1, CEO Frank Del Rio said Tuesday.  A majority, 75%, of the company’s vessels will return to regular operations by the end of the year, he said.  'If anything, the world is opening up, more people are getting vaccinated,' Del Rio told CNBC. 'Pent-up demand continues to be very, very strong for the sailings we’ve operated thus far.'  Despite the cruise line’s stringent vaccine protocols, Del Rio said Covid booster shots are not yet required for passengers and employees. But he said Norwegian could either mandate boosters if the pandemic worsens or adjust the company’s existing vaccine guidelines as the pandemic wanes and more people immunize against the virus.

 

Full story at:

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/05/norwegian-cruise-line-set-to-launch-full-fleet-by-april-ceo-says.html

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Amazon River-Caribbean 2015 adventure live/blog starting in Barbados. Many visuals from this amazing river and Caribbean Islands (Dutch ABC's, St. Barts, Dominica, Grenada, San Juan, etc.).  Now at 68,934 views:

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2157696

 

From the Wall Street Journalate this afternoon,  here are the stock charts for the three major cruise lines during the past five trading days. It was downward this past week.  Why?:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see these visuals larger/better!)

1401014808_ScreenShot2021-10-08at5_00_21PM.thumb.png.03dfe99ed42592795440db6a0d17b33e.png

 

653293510_ScreenShot2021-10-08at5_02_12PM.thumb.png.27f765fdb78f325f3cfaad8873016d52.png

 

2046253789_ScreenShot2021-10-08at5_02_58PM.thumb.png.9343aaf469ed439a7f803790576b9431.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, TLCOhio said:

It was downward this past week.  Why?:

 

The haggles over the debt limit didn't help.  Dr. Wallensky's statement that ending the pandemic depends on human behavior "which has not served us very well".  Employment/unemployment news has not been encouraging this week.  (A local popular high end restaurant has been closed this week-end because of staffing shortages!)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, rkacruiser said:

 

The haggles over the debt limit didn't help.  Dr. Wallensky's statement that ending the pandemic depends on human behavior "which has not served us very well".  Employment/unemployment news has not been encouraging this week.  (A local popular high end restaurant has been closed this week-end because of staffing shortages!)

Sadly similar circumstances to those you describe are occurring in the hospitality business in the UK.Nothing to what faces top management in the cruise industry who have to deal with and comply with many varying Nations rules and regulations which can vary so much on for example a 14 day Mediterranean cruise to probably 10 different countries.Just hoping normal luxury cruising on Silversea resumes restriction free in the next year or so!

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I would guess rising inflation and in particular rising oil prices are a negative for cruise lines.  They either have to either raise prices or decrease margins.  Also given the large amount of debt they issued during the pandemic rising interest rates are a negative. 

 

RCL stock peaked at ~135 and ~$9.00 EPS from 2018 to 2019, at that point the economy and business was booming.  Given the enormous losses and debt they have taken on its hard to analyze a "fair value" for the stock.  One never knows but I would guess , given all the uncertainty, its going to be very difficult for RCL to get to the 130's in the near future.  It looks like analysts are estimating (guessing) RCL gets back to $9/share in 2023.   When I do a back of the envelope discounted cash flow and use a very optimistic $6 a share for current earnings (they are of course actually negative)with 5% growth its says the stock is worth about $90.

 

  With all the unknowns one can probably expect large stock price fluctuations.

Edited by RetiredandTravel
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...
On 10/9/2021 at 7:22 AM, RetiredandTravel said:

I would guess rising inflation and in particular rising oil prices are a negative for cruise lines.  They either have to either raise prices or decrease margins.  Also given the large amount of debt they issued during the pandemic rising interest rates are a negative.   With all the unknowns one can probably expect large stock price fluctuations.

 

Appreciate these great follow-up comments and insights by rkacruiser, primary and RetiredandTravel.  Yes, as noted above, oil prices and inflation could be affecting these "educated guesses" by Wall Street for future cruise lines stock values..  

 

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

AFRICA?!!?: Fun, interesting visuals, plus travel details from this early 2016 live/blog. At 51,808 views. Featuring Cape Town, South Africa’s coast, Mozambique, Victoria Falls/Zambia and Botswana's famed Okavango Delta.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2310337

 

From the Wall Street Journalate Friday afternoon,  here are the stock charts for the three major cruise lines during the previous five trading days. It was rocky and a little downward this past week.  Why?:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see these visuals larger/better!)

214244997_ScreenShot2021-10-16at9_05_17AM.thumb.png.653d9f558526504e118af291b515139e.png

 

1460955945_ScreenShot2021-10-16at9_06_38AM.thumb.png.b77886b893b87b7d795e41acdf86ca5d.png

 

1913237737_ScreenShot2021-10-16at9_08_14AM.thumb.png.43ca7d8323655cb7352b67a18b293cdd.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

From the Wall Street Journal  late last week, they had this headline: Royal Caribbean Group to hold conference call on business update and third quarter financial results with these highlights: “Royal Caribbean Group has scheduled a conference call for 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time, Friday, October 29, 2021, to provide a business update and discuss third quarter 2021 financial results. The call will be available on-line at the company's investor relations website, www.rclinvestor.com. To listen to the call by phone, please dial (833) 608-1479 in the US and Canada. International phone calls should be made to (270) 240-0549. The conference call access code is 1858830. A replay of the webcast will be available at the same site for a month following the call.”

 

Will try to listen in Friday for  their details, etc., and report back here.

 

Full news release at:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/royal-caribbean-group-to-hold-conference-call-on-business-update-and-third-quarter-financial-results-01634940250?tesla=y

 

Below are the stock charts from last week for the three major cruise lines.  Somewhat downward as a trend??!!  Not sure exactly why and how.  Any insights and/or good guesses?

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Kotor/Montenegro:  Exciting visual samples, tips, details, etc., for this scenic, historic location. Over 48,590 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1439193

 

From the Wall Street Journal last week, here are the stock charts for the three major cruise lines during the previous five trading days. It was rocky and a little downward this past week.  Why?:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see these visuals larger/better!)

384020_ScreenShot2021-10-25at9_09_45AM.thumb.png.e0e1f322fe0b7188f12643351babb22d.png

 

755640506_ScreenShot2021-10-25at9_10_14AM.thumb.png.8ce72a9687cbdb47bf7f847ca14c3b1e.png

 

688752485_ScreenShot2021-10-25at9_11_12AM.thumb.png.6d52c139155501ed5d7645e1ed1c6fed.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

From MSN News and this financial website today, they had this headline: “Buy Norwegian Cruise Line, Sell Carnival?” with these highlights: “They say that a rising tide lifts all ships, but once again it seems as if the same can't be said about cruise line stocks. Citi analyst James Ainley is kicking off the new trading week by initiating coverage of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings with a bullish buy rating, just as he's downgrading shares of larger rival Carnival.  Ainley feels that Norwegian Cruise Line is better positioned to cash in on where the recovery stands for one of the hardest-hit niches of the travel industry. He feels that the recovery is favoring premium cruise lines given industry pricing trends heading into next summer. Carnival operates some high-end cruise lines, but its namesake brand is priced aggressively as the mass-market leader of the cruising industry. Carnival's flagship brand is often the haven for first-time cruisers and folks looking for the best deals in affordable cruising. Norwegian Cruise Line and Royal Caribbean tend to land slightly higher on the pricing spectrum.

 

Here is more from this analysis: "There's no denying that the cruising industry has had a challenging restart process. Plans to start sailing again this summer that seemed so ambitious earlier this year proved problematic as the peak travel season played out. However, after a brutal 2020 for the industry, one would think that the three cruise line stocks would be beneficiaries of pandemic-tackling vaccinations that became widely available in 2021. It hasn't worked out that way, and all but Royal Caribbean have been treading water in terms of year-to-date shareholder gains.  Royal Caribbean is up 13.3% this year.   Carnival stock climbed 2.9% in 2021.   Norwegian Cruise Line has inched 0.2% higher.  Royal Caribbean was the top gainer last year, too.   The climate is getting kinder. Regulatory hurdles have been largely cleared now. International travel restrictions are starting to ease as global vaccination rates improve and active COVID-19 case counts recede. It's not necessarily smooth sailing for the cruise line stocks. We've seen some false starts in the pandemic's recovery process. However, next summer will likely be far kinder to the industry than this deficit-saddled year. The water may still be rough, but the long-term prospects for all three cruise lines are promising."

 

Full story at:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/buy-norwegian-cruise-line-sell-carnival/ar-AAPW4Te?ocid=BingNewsSearch

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Dubrovnik!  Nice visual samples, tips, details, etc., for this super scenic and historic location. Over 48,225 views.    

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1439227

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 10/25/2021 at 1:16 PM, TLCOhio said:

The water may still be rough, but the long-term prospects for all three cruise lines are promising."

 

Thank you for your interesting post.  I agree that the long term prospects are promising, but not enough for me to invest anymore than I already have in the cruise or the hospitality industry in general.  The restrictions caused by Covid need to be put in the far distant rear view mirror before the "good old days" will return.  If, they ever do in my lifetime.  

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 10/28/2021 at 7:33 PM, rkacruiser said:

Thank you for your interesting post.  I agree that the long term prospects are promising, but not enough for me to invest anymore than I already have in the cruise or the hospitality industry in general.  The restrictions caused by Covid need to be put in the far distant rear view mirror before the "good old days" will return.  If, they ever do in my lifetime.  

 

Super appreciate these above great comments and summary follow-up from our Ohio neighbor in a suburb south of Dayton.  Agree, things are getting better and moving in the right direction.  BUT, are we "there" yet?  And, fully?

 

From the Wall Street Journal's sister publications of Barron's on Friday, they had this headline: “Royal Caribbean Expects a Profit Next Year. Wall Street Takes a Wait-and-See Approach.” with these highlights: “Shares of Royal Caribbean dipped Friday even after the company said it expected to be profitable by the end of next year.  Royal Caribbean‘s forecast comes as the cruise line posted a wider-than-expected third-quarter loss but a jump in revenue.   Royal Caribbean reported an adjusted loss of $4.91 a share.”

 

This was written after the Friday 10 am quarterly financial briefing by Royal Caribbean CEO Richard Fain, their CFO, etc.  I listened in for the full hour Friday, including the Wall Street analysts' detailed questions, their answers/response, etc.  Will provide more specific background in my next posting later today or tomorrow.  

 

Full story at:

https://www.barrons.com/articles/royal-caribbean-rcl-stock-price-earnings-guidance-51635516972?mod=article_signInButton

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Athens & Greece: Many visuals, details from two visits in a city with great history, culture and architecture.  Now at 41,736 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1101008

 

From the Wall Street Journal last week, here are the stock charts for the three major cruise lines during the previous five trading days. It was rocky and a mostly mixed past week.  Is that a reasonable and fair summary?:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see these visuals larger/better!)

1858182599_ScreenShot2021-10-31at4_18_08PM.thumb.png.33f34f40536105e5db202adc0cd83a07.png

 

1280726460_ScreenShot2021-10-31at4_19_13PM.thumb.png.c0a76b42bc3632c740a4e8e6e89e4857.png

 

244138624_ScreenShot2021-10-31at4_19_55PM.thumb.png.8b8bb2a23bba6925a90eeaa30dea6551.png

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, TLCOhio said:

 I listened in for the full hour Friday, including the Wall Street analysts' detailed questions, their answers/response, etc.  Will provide more specific background in my next posting later today or tomorrow.  

 

I will be looking forward to your post as well as your impressions.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

35 minutes ago, rkacruiser said:

I will be looking forward to your post as well as your impressions.  

 

YES!!  Happy to share more details from Friday morning's briefing by the top Royal Caribbean executives.   This third quarter briefing included CFO Jason Liberty, CEO Richard Fain, etc. 

 

Among CEO Fain's overview comments were: "Horrible year and a half, but we see a positive forward path”; the challenges are “not yet full behind us”; we are “focused on where we are going”; the “path forward is clear and positive”; this process has been like “getting a flywheel spinning”; we are “operating almost normally now, with two-thirds of ships operating”; we are “operating more ships at a lower load level”; and they are 'looking to the early January WAVE period” that spike up future bookings even more.  For the summer and later 2022 periods, they expect improving and good load levels.  

 

They expect the CDC to lift most cruise ship limitations in early January, but even then, they will not “still be not in a normal level” .  There were discussions about how China was a fast-growing market area, but that China is now closed and will not re-open until after the Winter Olympics.  They do not expect Australia to open till later next year for cruise sailings.  Australia might open up in the Spring 2022 for general travelers, but it would be too late for the traditional cruise ship sailings to start until str in that year.  

 

There were some fairly significant discussions about "human capital", including about ship-board jobs.  Their bottom-line was that it has not been a problem in recruiting and keeping staff interested in working on these ships, nor for their shore-side jobs.  With the supply chain, they have had some impacts.  But, since Royal Caribbean does so much with long-term contracts and that they have large buying-power, their executives did not see major issues in this aspect of their business.    

 

Project Evolution for Silversea came up and received major, positive attention.  This involve multiple-fuels and evolving technology for the newest Silversea ships being designed and built.  Royal Caribbean expects to be carbon-free by 2050.  How many of us will be around and cruising by that date to verify that this goal/promise was achieved??   

 

Financially, Royal Caribbean had $1.2 billion in losses for third quarter.  They had 36% occupancy during the period for the ships/fleet that was sailing.  Out of 500,000 guests sailing during their re-opening period, they had 130 Covid cases.    They expect their upcoming load capacity to be  increasing and be over the 60%  level in 2022.  For next summer, they expect to return to historic levels.  They expect 85% of their ships be in operation by 2022.   

 

They currently have $4 billion in liquidity.  Recently, they did one re-financing that lowered down to 5.5% their interest cost for that one billion dollar issuance.    For 2022 sailings, they saw bookings improving in the last two months as the Delta variant lessened.    They have $2.8 billion in customer deposits.with 35% of that amount related to FCC/future cruise credits.  For later 2022, they expect positive earnings.  

 

Next, I will have more details and background after the various questions that were raised from the Wall Street firms' analysts to the RCL top executives.  

 

Reactions?  Questions?  Comments?  Agree/disagree?
 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Lisbon, NWSpain, Bordeaux/Brittany: Live/blog, June 2017 from Portugal to France along scenic Atlantic Coast on the Silver Spirit.  Now at 32,024 views.  Many interesting pictures, details for history, food, culture, etc.:

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2511358

  • Thanks 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Appreciate these follow-up comments from tgh, QueSeraSera and CruiserFromMaine.  Don't be shy with any comments or questions. What do you believe true, doubt and/or question?

 

From Q/A segment of the hour-long Third Quarter, Wall Street reporting, here are more background that might be of interest:  

 

For Royal Caribbean and their government requirements, there were questions about vaccine mandates, requirements, etc.   Since Royal Caribbean expects most of these requirements to end Jan. 15, 2022, management does not expect significant, major and/or future challenges with the CDC.    They reflected that there have been improved relations and communications with the CDC during recent months.  RCL expects processes to be easier and less cumbersome for the future.  The point was made that RCL has brought back more of its fleet and with their operations than their competitors.  They believe strongly that they are farther along with their re-opening than either the cruise brands of Carnival or Norwegian.  

 

On future costs and dealing with the growing inflation challenges, RCL has hedged 53% of their fuel supply for next year.  Also, RCL is farther along in having already ramped up their varied re-start costs.  

 

RCL views that their fleet is younger and that their fuel consumption per berth is lower than with their two main competitors.  They are happy to be more fuel efficient as oil prices have spiked upward.  

 

CEO Richard Fain spoke about the Delta variant affecting their 2022 bookings during recent months, but that they expect things to be mostly normal for 2023.  These executive had great fun talking about how quickly and somewhat easily the Royal Caribbean nine-month World Cruise had achieved being 70% booked in just two weeks.  That cruise is for 2023 with sizable advanced deposits required and paid.  

 

As to the overall economic environment for 2022 and 2023, they see signs of  significant pent-up demand.  Maybe that is in part “spin”, but they cited specific data to back up that forecast and reasoning.

 

During the past two to three weeks weeks, they have seen bookings have move up significantly.  They see similar trends for all of the brands, showing more overall consumer confidence.   They also cited and gave specifics about more on-board spending, advance bookings for on-board spending extras, etc.

 

They have the view that current inflationary cost increases are only "transitory”. 

 

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Panama Canal? Early 2017, Fort Lauderdale to San Francisco adventure through Panama Canal.  Our first stops in Colombia, Central America and Mexico, plus added time in the great Golden Gate City. Now at 30,837 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2465580

  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 hours ago, TLCOhio said:

Reactions?  Questions?  Comments?  Agree/disagree?
 

 

Thank you for your informative post.  

 

22 hours ago, TLCOhio said:

There were discussions about how China was a fast-growing market area, but that China is now closed and will not re-open until after the Winter Olympics

 

CCL as well as RCI have been more optimistic about the Chinese market than I have been.  The Chinese vacationer is unlike a North American vacationer from what I have learned.  I am aware that both companies have been in a learning mode about this large group of potential guests.  But, if they are successful in adapting their product to what the Chinese consumer wants, it's going to be awhile before the results will appear on the bottom line for the companies, in my opinion.

 

19 hours ago, TLCOhio said:

he point was made that RCL has brought back more of its fleet and with their operations than their competitors.  They believe strongly that they are farther along with their re-opening than either the cruise brands of Carnival or Norwegian.

 

This does seem to be the situation and I am unsure as to why it is taking so long to get the Princess and HAL product more productive than it is.  

 

22 hours ago, TLCOhio said:

Their bottom-line was that it has not been a problem in recruiting and keeping staff interested in working on these ships,

 

Friends who sailed on the Nieuw Amsterdam in Alaska this Summer reported many crew members who remembered them and whom they remembered.  This report by RCI is good news as to crewing the ships.  

 

19 hours ago, TLCOhio said:

the growing inflation challenges,

 

Well, if one is a long time investor in the travel industry, this is not something brand new.  We survived as investors once before and will do so again with regard to inflation challenges.  

 

19 hours ago, TLCOhio said:

These executive had great fun talking about how quickly and somewhat easily the Royal Caribbean nine-month World Cruise had achieved being 70% booked in just two weeks.  That cruise is for 2023 with sizable advanced deposits required and paid.  

 

I am unaware of any world cruise for 2023 and 2024 that is not being well booked.  I wonder, though, if Royal Caribbean's extraordinarily long world cruise will be operated as a "true world cruise" as compared to Cunard, HAL, etc.  Or, will it be more like a b2b2b2b2b2b, etc.?  Experienced world cruise guests will expect "something more" than what is found on a b2b2b2b, etc.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 11/1/2021 at 4:59 PM, rkacruiser said:

Thank you for your informative post.  CCL as well as RCI have been more optimistic about the Chinese market than I have been.  Well, if one is a long time investor in the travel industry, this is not something brand new.  We survived as investors once before and will do so again with regard to inflation challenges. 

 

Very good summary points, comments and reactions from our SW Ohio neighbor.  Very insightful!  Much appreciated.  

 

From the Seatrade publication this morning, they had this headline: “Jason Liberty to succeed Richard Fain as Royal Caribbean CEO” with these highlights: “Richard Fain, whose innovations during more than 33 years as CEO of the Royal Caribbean Group helped shape the modern cruise industry, has decided to step down as CEO on Jan. 3.  CFO Jason Liberty will succeed him as CEO and join the board, which Fain will continue to chair.  The third-longest serving CEO among current S&P 500 leaders, Fain's storied career is defined by the innovations he championed involving every aspect of cruising — from revolutionary ship design to major sustainability efforts to the technologies and ground-breaking features that enriched the on-board experience for millions of passengers.  Liberty joined the Royal Caribbean Group in 2005 and served in several financial, strategic and operational roles before becoming CFO in 2013. His operational duties have expanded over the years and gone well beyond the responsibilities normally associated with a CFO.”

 

Having listened in during the past two years to the quarterly Wall Street analysts reports and Q/A sessions with both Fain and the CFO, I kind of been able to know a decent amount about both of them.  They are very, very different personalities and styles.  Did not realize that Fain had been in charge that long.  Interesting timing by Fain to be leaving now.  According to web sources, Fain is age 72, but he seemed to me to be much younger  as I listened to him, sensed his energy, style and vigor, etc.   

 

Things are getting better for the cruise industry, but it will take much more time to get back to a real “normal” AND dig out of their current, deep financial hole.  Jason Liberty is more of a “bean-counter” finance guy.  Yes, he is very smart and savvy, but does he really understand customers and their needs, motivations, etc.????

 

Added reactions, background and thoughts?  Am I fair or unfair as to how I characterize these two business leaders and the questions for the future?

 

Below are last week's financial trends for the three major cruise ship stocks.  Comments?  

 

Full story at: 

https://www.seatrade-cruise.com/people-opinions/jason-liberty-succeed-richard-fain-royal-caribbean-ceo

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

From late 2018, see “Holy Lands, Egypt, Jordan, Oman, Dubai, Greece, etc.”, with many visuals, details and ideas for the historic and scenic Middle East. Now at 20,153 views.  Connect at:

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2607054-livenautica-greece-holy-lands-egypt-dubai-terrypix’s/

 

From the Wall Street Journal last week, here are the stock charts for the three major cruise lines during those five trading days. Friday as was a big, BIG upswing day.  Not sure exactly why.  Any good guesses?  Yesterday and this morning, these stocks slide back down.  Ups & downs o the markets??!!:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see these visuals larger/better!)

1666454351_ScreenShot2021-11-05at5_59_01PM.thumb.png.b7d4a84b7b630b3124bbcc2414c7bfc8.png

 

78099669_ScreenShot2021-11-05at5_59_57PM.thumb.png.c3f54bc6910f262981f6de6ec0913dd6.png

 

1595223629_ScreenShot2021-11-05at6_00_40PM.thumb.png.bc63a5a72a4c0b99a8e8e0ac0000c058.png

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

From the Wall Street Journal's sister publication of Barron's this morning, they had this headline: “Royal Caribbean’s CEO Says ‘the Worst Is Behind Us’ with these highlights: “When he became CEO of the company now known as Royal Caribbean Group 33 years ago, late in Ronald Reagan’s presidency, Richard Fain oversaw a fleet of five ships, versus about 60 today.   Under Fain’s guidance, the company rode a wave of global growth driven by an expanding appetite for cruises among vacationers. He played an important a role in designing much bigger ships with a lot more amenities and developing the company’s private island in the Bahamas, among other achievements.”

 

Also below is the latest stock chart for Royal Caribbean.  It has has been a slow slide downward since the big jump up on Friday morning and the announcement of the upcoming RCL CEO change.  The charts for the other two major cruise lines have followed a similar pattern the week.  Why?  Not sure!  Any good guesses or speculation?

 

Full story at:

https://www.barrons.com/articles/royal-caribbean-ceo-richard-fain-51636587948

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Summer 2019 Calgary, Jasper/Banff National Parks, Western Canada Rocky Mountaineer rail adventure, Vancouver, sailing up to Alaska on Silver Muse, post-cruise excursion to Denali, etc.  Many visuals and details from our first in these scenic areas!  Live/blog: 

https://boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2682584-live-terryohio-silver-muse-alaska-canadarockies-pix’s/

 

From the Wall Street Journal this morning, here is the stock chart for Royal Caribbean during the past five trading days.  Big, downward slide after the major Friday  upswing day.:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see this visual larger/better!)

853530868_ScreenShot2021-11-11at8_26_12AM.thumb.png.deddae6563680e95f5bbd971ca51a50b.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Terry, that Royal Caribbean chart seems to pretty much mirror the overall direction of the S&P 500 for the week, although the RCL drop was larger:

 

1560567149_ScreenShot2021-11-11at6_31_59PM.thumb.png.eb85563c5fba3c546b6431152109bf6f.png

 

Inflation is on a tear, and that caused the markets to skid this week. It makes sense that inflation concerns would hit harder at discretionary leisure spending categories, like cruise company stocks. 

 

(With the normal disclaimer that trying to rationally explain the ebbs and flows of stock prices is all but impossible!)

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, cruiseej said:

Terry, that Royal Caribbean chart seems to pretty much mirror the overall direction of the S&P 500 for the week

 

1 hour ago, cruiseej said:

Inflation is on a tear, and that caused the markets to skid this week. It makes sense that inflation concerns would hit harder at discretionary leisure spending categories, like cruise company stocks. 

 

All of this makes the bond market upset which impacts the stock market.  

 

The rest of 2021 and well into 2022, if not longer, is going to be a ride for those who don't get seasick as far as I am concerned.  Hang tight.  As Maureen McGovern once sang:  their will be The Morning After.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, TLCOhio said:

Any good guesses or speculation?

1) Covid cases and hospitalizations back on the rise in the northern hemisphere.  Our state is back to rationing care as we are back to less than 10% of ICU beds available.

 

2) Booster shot uptake is low.  There is little to no demand.  Our state has now made boosters available to anyone who wants one.

 

3) Inflation is not as transitory as once thought.  As such, the Fed is expected to end tapering sooner than previously announced and begin tightening rates sooner than expected in 2022.  Don’t believe me?  Look at gold.  Just broke out of a 15-month downtrend this week.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, silkismom said:

Wasn't the song "Morning After" from a movie where the ship sank? Just googled it "The Poseidon Adventure" where Shelley Winters "went swimming".

 

Correct.  I hear the song as the expectation of a better tomorrow.  That's the opinion that I have for the cruise industry.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 11/11/2021 at 6:36 PM, cruiseej said:

Inflation is on a tear, and that caused the markets to skid this week. It makes sense that inflation concerns would hit harder at discretionary leisure spending categories, like cruise company stocks.   (With the normal disclaimer that trying to rationally explain the ebbs and flows of stock prices is all but impossible!)

 

Appreciate ALL of these great, varied and interesting comments and follow-ups.  As noted above by our smart Philadelphia suburban neighbor to the east, inflation is clearly a major trend/concern affecting the overall markets and many stocks, especially for the cruise industry.  People have money, but, there are still many longer-term questions as we see Covid flare ups in Germany, China, parts of the United States, etc.  

 

From the CNBC cable business news and MSN Wednesday, they had this headline: “Royal Caribbean CEO sees historically strong summer bookings, plans to pay down Covid debt” with these highlights: “Royal Caribbean outgoing CEO Richard Fain told CNBC on Wednesday the company is seeing historically strong bookings for next summer.  'That will generate the cash flow that we need to pay down the debt, to reinvest in our technology, reinvest in our sustainability efforts, reinvest in our new ships,' he said.  '[The cruise business] has always been a cash flow business. It's a highly capital intensive business, but once you have the ships, they become cash cows,' Fain said in an interview with CNBC's Seema Mody.”

 

Here is more from this reporting: "With international borders reopening after pandemic closures, business from Europe is expected to give the cruise industry a bump. 'The U.S. is the dominant market, but the international markets are growing even faster,' Fain said. 'One of the things we've been very successful at is attracting Europeans to come on our ships in the Caribbean and attracting Americans to go on our ships in the Mediterranean.' Fain said the cruise industry is clearly coming back and the pathway forward is very clear. 'We're about to be starting our new growth phase,' he said. 'As borders begin to open up, as we begin to live life again, all that works in our favor.' "

 

Full story at:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/travel/news/royal-caribbean-ceo-sees-historically-strong-summer-bookings-plans-to-pay-down-covid-debt/ar-AAQxTHU?ocid=BingNewsSearch

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Barcelona/Med: June 2011, with stops in Villefranche, ports near Pisa and Rome, Naples, Kotor, Venice and Dubrovnik. Great visuals with key highlights, tips, etc. Live/blog now at 254,022 views.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1426474

 

From the Wall Street Journal for this past week, below are the stock charts for the three major cruise lines during those five trading days. Royal Caribbean started out on Monday morning at $97 per share, looking good and solid.  But, by Friday afternoon's closing bell, RCL was down to just a little over $85.  That's a drop of $12.43 per share or sliding down by 12.8%  The other two lines had similar drops and trends.  Does the market know something serious about the future?:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see these visuals larger/better!)

1051526319_ScreenShot2021-11-12at7_16_38PM.thumb.png.2e3635cdae5a80e3af44a9b341405195.png

 

946510485_ScreenShot2021-11-12at7_17_44PM.thumb.png.9010b52147237c6c0ecf6a1b77e28c96.png

 

1744588413_ScreenShot2021-11-12at7_18_28PM.thumb.png.828e9c453feff53e1055829093384750.png

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Forum Jump
    • Categories
      • Forum Assistance
      • Holiday Exchange - Jingle and Mingle 2021
      • ANNOUNCEMENT: Enjoy the Gift of Travel with Regent Seven Seas Cruises
      • ICYMI Cruise Critic Live Special Event: Q&A with Silversea Cruises
      • New Cruisers
      • Cruise Lines “A – O”
      • Cruise Lines “P – Z”
      • River Cruising
      • ROLL CALLS
      • Digital Photography & Cruise Technology
      • Special Interest Cruising
      • Cruise Discussion Topics
      • UK Cruising
      • Australia & New Zealand Cruisers
      • Canadian Cruisers
      • North American Homeports
      • Ports of Call
      • Cruise Conversations
×
×
  • Create New...