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SS/RCCL Finances: Improving, Options, Questions??!!


TLCOhio
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9 hours ago, TLCOhio said:

People have money, but, there are still many longer-term questions as we see Covid flare ups in Germany, China, parts of the United States, etc.  

 

A very valid question that could be better answered if more people would choose to get fully vaccinated and follow the proper safety protocols until they are no longer needed.  

 

9 hours ago, TLCOhio said:

The U.S. is the dominant market, but the international markets are growing even faster,' Fain said. 'One of the things we've been very successful at is attracting Europeans to come on our ships in the Caribbean and attracting Americans to go on our ships in the Mediterranean.'

 

European cruising began and did so successfully before North American cruising began.  Neither geographic area needs no setbacks that would frighten people from cruising in either area.  Mr. Fain said nothing about Asia?  If so, I find that interesting.  

 

9 hours ago, TLCOhio said:

 Does the market know something serious about the future?:

 

I think their crystal ball is as cloudy as mine is.  

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1 hour ago, rkacruiser said:

…if more people would choose to get fully vaccinated and follow the proper safety protocols until they are no longer needed.

😆😆😆 that’s good.  Not ever going to happen in the USA though.  We’ve already proven that.  Maybe a rebranding of the virus is in order?

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21 hours ago, Stumblefoot said:

😆😆😆 that’s good.  Not ever going to happen in the USA though.  We’ve already proven that.  Maybe a rebranding of the virus is in order?

 

There will be some who disagree with me, but, I think it is only a matter of time until our lawmakers and other political leaders will have the intestinal fortitude to make vaccination against Covid mandatory just as vaccinations against other diseases are required.  There will be, and ought to be, exclusions for valid reasons, just there are now.  

 

When will that happen?  It may take a challenge to the current mandates that is successful that reaches the Supreme Court.  At that time, I hope, that one or more "statesmen/stateswomen" will arise from their colleagues and actually work for the benefit of the people of the United States and not give "lip service" to much of what I hear from their mouths.  If that happens, all will benefit, including the cruise industry.  

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16 hours ago, rkacruiser said:

 

There will be some who disagree with me, but, I think it is only a matter of time until our lawmakers and other political leaders will have the intestinal fortitude to make vaccination against Covid mandatory just as vaccinations against other diseases are required.  There will be, and ought to be, exclusions for valid reasons, just there are now.  

 

When will that happen?  It may take a challenge to the current mandates that is successful that reaches the Supreme Court.  At that time, I hope, that one or more "statesmen/stateswomen" will arise from their colleagues and actually work for the benefit of the people of the United States and not give "lip service" to much of what I hear from their mouths.  If that happens, all will benefit, including the cruise industry.  

I fully agree and add my hopes that Covid vaccination will become mandatory.  The Covid pandemic continues to be all too real and in my face.   My son called me almost in tears late yesterday to tell me his mother had Covid and was in intensive care on a ventilator with a poor prognosis.   He was called early Sunday to be told he had just become her closest living next of kin as her husband died of Covid either late Saturday or early Sunday.   Turns out they were both anti-vaxxers.   The message is clear GET VACCINATED!!!

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2 hours ago, Randyk47 said:

I fully agree and add my hopes that Covid vaccination will become mandatory.  The Covid pandemic continues to be all too real and in my face.   My son called me almost in tears late yesterday to tell me his mother had Covid and was in intensive care on a ventilator with a poor prognosis.   He was called early Sunday to be told he had just become her closest living next of kin as her husband died of Covid either late Saturday or early Sunday.   Turns out they were both anti-vaxxers.   The message is clear GET VACCINATED!!!

Hi Randy, so sorry about your son's Mom.......but I do agree, Get the jab. 

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5 hours ago, Randyk47 said:

The Covid pandemic continues to be all too real and in my face.   My son called me almost in tears late yesterday to tell me his mother had Covid and was in intensive care on a ventilator with a poor prognosis.   He was called early Sunday to be told he had just become her closest living next of kin as her husband died of Covid either late Saturday or early Sunday.   Turns out they were both anti-vaxxers.   The message is clear GET VACCINATED!!!

 

Sorry to hear these details as to how Covid has impact Randy's family.  Fortunately for us, we have not had any such immediate impact in this manner within our family and/or among friends/associates.  

 

Two weeks ago, I got my Moderna booster shot and am very pleased to have had that opportunity.   It was late February when my wife and I had our second Moderna shots in the original round.  No negative impacts for me from any of these three shots.  It does seem more and more that a booster is definitely needed and that earlier shots/infections do not provide "forever" protection or immunization.

 

This thread is now over 40,000 views.  Appreciate all who have dropped in and/or provided helpful information, raised good questions, shared their viewpoints.   Keep it coming!!

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Norway Coast/Fjords/Arctic Circle cruise from Copenhagen, July 2010, to the top of Europe. Scenic visuals with key tips. Live/blog at 243,032 views.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1227923

 

From the Wall Street Journal this afternoon, here is the one-month chart/look at the up-and-down movements of the Royal Caribbean stock. The blue line is the RCL stock.  By comparison in orange is the S&P (Standard and Poor Index) for the overall, major 500 stocks.  Interesting contrast and comparison?:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see this visual larger/better!)

1840818842_ScreenShot2021-11-15at2_06_48PM.thumb.png.6589264016d64051c3730c68fe1d2007.png

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4 hours ago, Lois R said:

Hi Randy, so sorry about your son's Mom.......but I do agree, Get the jab. 

Hi Randy I agree with the sentiments.   Glad I got vaxed, but not sure if #3 will be good for me.  Mrs Banjo and I have both managed to avoid the whole thing and hope that continues

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7 hours ago, Randyk47 said:

The Covid pandemic continues to be all too real and in my face.   My son called me almost in tears late yesterday to tell me his mother had Covid and was in intensive care on a ventilator with a poor prognosis.   He was called early Sunday to be told he had just become her closest living next of kin as her husband died of Covid either late Saturday or early Sunday.   Turns out they were both anti-vaxxers.

 

My condolences to your family and you.  

 

On All Saint's Day earlier this month, my Minister lit a candle for all in our congregation who had passed this year.  A candle was added in memory of all of those who passed due to Covid.  This will sadly need to be done November, 2022.  

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The booster is absolutely key, read the front page of the NYT today illustrating how the vaccines lose effectiveness over time.  The clinical trials were for 6 months.  Don't believe me?  The #5 state for infections (per 100k residents) over the last 2 weeks is Vermont which is #1 in vaccinations.  This isn't just an issue of people who didn't get vaccinated.

 

 

 

 

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9 hours ago, Randyk47 said:

I fully agree and add my hopes that Covid vaccination will become mandatory.  The Covid pandemic continues to be all too real and in my face.   My son called me almost in tears late yesterday to tell me his mother had Covid and was in intensive care on a ventilator with a poor prognosis.   He was called early Sunday to be told he had just become her closest living next of kin as her husband died of Covid either late Saturday or early Sunday.   Turns out they were both anti-vaxxers.   The message is clear GET VACCINATED!!!

 

Randy I am so sorry for your son and the rest of your family to be dealing with this sad situation. Vaccinations are definitely the way for our world to go forward from this pandemic.

 

My husband and I won't be due our boosters till mid-January but have already spoken to our doctor about which one is best for us to get as we had the AstraZeneca initially. 

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Below are the stock charts for Royal Caribbean and the other two major cruise ship lines.  The trend, sadly, has been downward.  Not sure exactly why.  My guess, Covid is still hanging around and showing rising numbers in Europe, etc.??

 

Since Nov. 5 when RCL was at nearly $97 per share, it has gone down to around $80 a share.  Long-term trend?  Speculation as to why this has been happening?  Where do these stocks and their value move as we close out the year 2021??

 

Sorry for my delay in posting as our son, two grandsons, etc., from Virginia were visiting for a pre-Thanksgiving holiday.  Tomorrow, my wife's family arrives from Kansas.  Fun family times!!

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Sydney to NZ/Auckland Adventure, live/blog 2014 sampling/details with many exciting visuals and key highlights.  On page 23, post #571, see a complete index for all of the pictures, postings.  Now at 234,372 views.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1974139

 

From the Wall Street Journal last week, here are the one-week charts for the three major cruise lines. The trend was clear . . . downward.  Right? :

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see these visuals larger/better!)

209026661_ScreenShot2021-11-19at5_28_01PM.thumb.png.368a4f017ef869bc0b0093b326566f06.png

 

698843632_ScreenShot2021-11-19at5_28_36PM.thumb.png.49994cdebcd7c36576d0e784e04d65f7.png

 

1142185625_ScreenShot2021-11-19at5_29_11PM.thumb.png.1e46d649aa7da00dd78185adf4cdbce9.png

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My best guess Terry is that we might be seeing a slight retreating tide of the supposed pent up demand for cruising.  Certainly there was an initial surge of the fairly hardcore frequent cruisers who were beyond motivated to get back to cruising and there are, as witnessed here, many who have booked a number of future cruises.   What I don’t sense that has happened is attracting new first time cruisers.   That may not affect lines like Silversea as much but has to hit the mass market lines heavily.  Generally speaking their “bread and butter” is butts in beds and extensive on board spending.  I also suspect the uptick in cases worldwide is not helping.

 

As an update my ex has survived her bout with Covid and may have been released from the hospital.  I say may because despite my son’s and her brother’s attempts to get her to come live with one or the other she has refused.   Without getting into the politics or religion aspects my ex is a pretty hardcore anti-vaxxer.   She and her now late husband were living with his son and family so some six or seven people..  Every member has come down with Covid with three being hospitalized and one death.  She told my son she now has “natural immunity” which is better than a vaccine so she’s staying put.  He is so frustrated that he has pulled back a bit so the updates have stopped.   

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3 hours ago, TLCOhio said:

Since Nov. 5 when RCL was at nearly $97 per share, it has gone down to around $80 a share.  Long-term trend?  Speculation as to why this has been happening?

 

 

My guess, to add to Randy’s, is oil.  Until we hear from OPEC in December, the current trend is not your friend, regardless of what the Americans are doing with their strategic petroleum reserve.

 

1 hour ago, Randyk47 said:

She told my son she now has “natural immunity” which is better than a vaccine so she’s staying put.  He is so frustrated that he has pulled back a bit so the updates have stopped.   

Unfreaking believable.

 

 

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It's Covid -- particularly the resurgence in Europe and increasing cases in the US -- not oil, that is pushing cruise lines stocks (and other travel-related companies) down.

 

From Bloomberg:

 

Travel-Tied Stocks Slide as Covid-19 Jitters Spook Traders

Investors are running away from companies that stand to benefit from a return to normalcy as Covid-19 cases mount in the U.S. and the virus wreaks havoc in Europe.

 

Cruise ship operators Carnival Corp., Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. and Norwegian Cruise Lines Holdings Ltd. each closed down more than 2% Friday as investors piled into less risky assets. The S&P 500 Index, by contrast, fell 0.1%. Airlines and hotels are also among the worst performers in the stock market, with operators ranging from United Airlines Holdings Inc. to Delta Air Lines Inc. slumping alongside lodging stocks like Airbnb Inc.

 

The selloff in companies tied to consumers spending money on travel has accelerated over the past two weeks as reports of surging cases in Europe and hot spots in the Mountain West fueled worries about what could lie ahead this winter. 

 

 

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It certainly makes sense that increased Covid cases would be a drag on Travel/Leisure stocks but higher oil prices also negatively impacts them.  Obviously the more Covid lingers the slower people will get back to travelling.  Cases in the US are also significantly increasing in the Northern Midwest and New England.  Ironically Vermont with the highest vaccination rate in the country has been in the top ten of cases (per 100k) for quite a while.  Boosters anyone? 

 

The luxury lines are dependent on loyal frequent cruisers like you folks.   Its my impression that 50-60% of the luxury market is repeat customers, but from reading the threads here in CC there is a split with many demanding masks and others demanding no masks.  That makes it more complicated getting these loyal clients back.  

 

The cruise lines long term debt is about the same as their market capitalization.  The market now anticipates three (75bps) rate hikes next year and reducing quantitative easing could also put pressure on credit spreads.  Not good for highly leveraged companies.  RCL has a bond maturing next year I believe.  Cruise lines need business to improve quickly so they can start to retire some of this debt.

 

 

Randy I'm sure that is a very unsettling situation, sorry to hear.

Edited by RetiredandTravel
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56 minutes ago, RetiredandTravel said:

higher oil prices also negatively impacts them

 

That can be true, but the cruise lines, like airlines, generally have long-term fuel futures contracts which isolate them from the short-term ups and downs of market pricing. If fuel prices stay high for a prolonged period of months, then it will start being a drag on cruise line profits, but it shouldn't be much of a factor now, even to Wall Street. But chopping revenue if Covid causes a reduction in travel plans -- that one hits the cruise lines right where they can't really afford to take another blow (especially due to the debt issues you mention). 

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12 hours ago, cruiseej said:

 

That can be true, but the cruise lines, like airlines, generally have long-term fuel futures contracts which isolate them from the short-term ups and downs of market pricing. If fuel prices stay high for a prolonged period of months, then it will start being a drag on cruise line profits, but it shouldn't be much of a factor now, even to Wall Street. But chopping revenue if Covid causes a reduction in travel plans -- that one hits the cruise lines right where they can't really afford to take another blow (especially due to the debt issues you mention). 

 

 

 

"Generally" is the key word these are unusual times.  Its really hard to hedge your fuel usage when you have no idea how much fuel you will use.  

 

I know airlines hedge oil  but do cruise lines?  Honestly I don't follow cruise lines that closely but this article (a bit dated) suggests Carnival doesn't.

 

"2. We believe it's unwise to hedge fuel costs or even to predict future direction"

 

https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/06/28/key-points-carnival-corporations-management-wants.aspx

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9 hours ago, RetiredandTravel said:

I don't follow cruise lines that closely but this article (a bit dated) suggests Carnival doesn't.

 

"2. We believe it's unwise to hedge fuel costs or even to predict future direction"

 

That is what Carnival has done for many years.  I may be wrong, but I think they have been doing so more recently.  Does anyone know for certain?

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On 11/23/2021 at 9:52 AM, TLCOhio said:

From the Wall Street Journal last week, here are the one-week charts for the three major cruise lines. The trend was clear . . . downward.  

 

The charts are interesting from the standpoint that all of them showed a blip downwards at the November 19th date.  What happened then that caused that?

 

On 11/23/2021 at 9:52 AM, TLCOhio said:

Sorry for my delay in posting as our son, two grandsons, etc., from Virginia were visiting for a pre-Thanksgiving holiday.  Tomorrow, my wife's family arrives from Kansas.  Fun family times!!

 

Indeed!  Happy Thanksgiving!  Go Buckeyes!  

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From the RCL 10/21 earnings report

 

"

Fuel Expense

As of September 30, 2021, the Company had hedged approximately 51%, 32% and 5% of its total projected metric tons of fuel consumption for the remainder of 2021 and for all of 2022 and 2023, respectively.  For the remainder of 2021 and for all of 2022 and 2023, the annual average cost per metric ton of the fuel swap portfolio is approximately $439, $493, and $580, respectively.  As of the date of this release and following the execution of additional hedges, the Company is 53% hedged for all of 2022 at an average cost per metric ton of $502."

 

Happy Thanksgiving

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I don't see any reference to fuel hedging in the last CCL annual report (2020).   There is a mention of FX hedging, its possible its in there I do miss things.

 

"Fuel Price Risks Substantially all our exposure to market risk for changes in fuel prices relates to the consumption of fuel on our ships. We have been installing Advanced Air Quality Systems on our ships, which are aiding in partially mitigating the financial impact from the ECAs and global 0.5% sulfur requirements."

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It looks like the downward trend in cruise line stocks will continue today. Both RCL and CCL are down about 10% in premarket trading. 

 

Equity markets are down globally as news of the new South African variant gets disseminated.

 

So today might be 'Red Friday' in the equity markets. 

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