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SS/RCCL Finances: Improving, Options, Questions??!!


TLCOhio
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6 hours ago, DirtyDawg said:

It looks like the downward trend in cruise line stocks will continue today. Both RCL and CCL are down about 10% in premarket trading. Equity markets are down globally as news of the new South African variant gets disseminated.  So today might be 'Red Friday' in the equity markets. 

 

Appreciate all of these above, great comments and follow-ups. Lots happening and uncertain right now in the Covid and World Health Organization worlds.  

 

From the Wall Street Journal's MarketWatch today, they had this headline: Travel stocks slump and vaccine maker stocks rally as WHO gears up to assess new coronavirus variant with these highlights: “Shares of airlines fell and vaccine makers rose Friday as investors reacted to fresh travel bans related to a variant of the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 called B.1.1.529 that has been identified in South Africa.  The UK government has banned flights from South Africa and five other southern African countries, the Associated Press reported. The World Health Organization’s technical working group is meeting Friday to discuss the variant.  'A lot of eyes will be on how severe it is and whether it completely evades vaccines,' analysts at Deutsche Bank said Friday in a research note. 'At this stage very little is known. Mutations are often less severe so we shouldn’t jump to conclusions but there is clearly a lot of concern about this one.' 

 

Full story at:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/travel-stocks-slump-and-vaccine-maker-stocks-rally-as-who-gears-up-to-assess-new-coronavirus-variant-11637931681?adobe_mc=MCMID%3D64368917477333601990043620758670218094|MCORGID%3DCB68E4BA55144CAA0A4C98A5%40AdobeOrg|TS%3D1637952692

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Venice: Loving It & Why??!!  Is one of your future desires or past favorites? See these many visual samples for its great history and architecture.  This posting is now at 92,903 views.

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From the Wall Street Journal early Friday afternoon, this below chart shows the huge drop that hit Royal Caribbean today.  Down more than 13% at 2 pm EST.  Carnival and Norwegian Cruise Line Holding were both down around 11% today.:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see this visual larger/better!)

1698555195_ScreenShot2021-11-26at1_47_30PM.thumb.png.cff2f985c5a8057d822bcb56c119ead2.png

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1 hour ago, TLCOhio said:

'A lot of eyes will be on how severe it is and whether it completely evades vaccines,' analysts at Deutsche Bank said Friday in a research note. 'At this stage very little is known. Mutations are often less severe so we shouldn’t jump to conclusions but there is clearly a lot of concern about this one.' 

 

I don't agree with these analysts thoughts about "mutations are often less severe..".  The Delta variant was a mutation and it certainly has created many issues, particularly for the unvaccinated.  

 

There have been many, many cases of genes mutating that have caused terrible results for those that inherited such genes.  Deutsche Bank analysts ought to stick to what they know--economics--and not offer opinions in academic areas where they lack expertise.  

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10 minutes ago, rkacruiser said:

 

I don't agree with these analysts thoughts about "mutations are often less severe..".  The Delta variant was a mutation and it certainly has created many issues, particularly for the unvaccinated.  

 

There have been many, many cases of genes mutating that have caused terrible results for those that inherited such genes.  Deutsche Bank analysts ought to stick to what they know--economics--and not offer opinions in academic areas where they lack expertise.  

 

 

Agreed.

 

I really wish all these "experts" would wait until they have solid information and data before they start pontificating.   

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41 minutes ago, rkacruiser said:

 

I don't agree with these analysts thoughts about "mutations are often less severe..".  The Delta variant was a mutation and it certainly has created many issues, particularly for the unvaccinated.  

 

There have been many, many cases of genes mutating that have caused terrible results for those that inherited such genes.  Deutsche Bank analysts ought to stick to what they know--economics--and not offer opinions in academic areas where they lack expertise.  

I was on the buy side of the industry for a long time so in general I'm not a big fan of sell side analysts. Having said that, this comment, for me, was pretty accurate and fairly level headed. Most variants to date have not created many issues, but, and its a big but, many had the potential, like Delta to be devastating. So calling for calm on day one of this is a pretty  reasonable thing to do. I'm not saying this because I'm long the market, personally I would rather they did the "sky is falling" routine. 

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16 minutes ago, DirtyDawg said:

So calling for calm on day one of this is a pretty  reasonable thing to do. I'm not saying this because I'm long the market, personally I would rather they did the "sky is falling" routine. 

 

Recommending "calm" in an adverse situation is a reasonable, and often proper, thing to do.  Investors today, however, preferred the "sky is falling" routine.  

 

I follow the Buffet approach to investing in many ways.  Buy quality and hold for the long term.  Invest dividends when paid and be aware of the "ups and downs" for the industries in which one invests.  But, don't sell just because the news is negative for awhile.  For me, CCL and RCI are quality companies.  

 

When I watch the Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade, I see the word "BELIEVE" on the front of their store.  That describes how I think about these two companies.  

 

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40 minutes ago, rkacruiser said:

 

Recommending "calm" in an adverse situation is a reasonable, and often proper, thing to do.  Investors today, however, preferred the "sky is falling" routine.  

 

I follow the Buffet approach to investing in many ways.  Buy quality and hold for the long term.  Invest dividends when paid and be aware of the "ups and downs" for the industries in which one invests.  But, don't sell just because the news is negative for awhile.  For me, CCL and RCI are quality companies.  

 

When I watch the Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade, I see the word "BELIEVE" on the front of their store.  That describes how I think about these two companies.  

 

With the markets up so much this year, for me today was more of ' lock in some profits' day rather than a 'sky is falling' day. The S&P was only down 2% today. That's not pocket change but it's nowhere close to Black Friday in 1987, the Dot com bubble bust in April 2000, the financial crisis in October 2008, or even last year's Covid burst. Maybe I've become too desensitized over the years. 

 

I'm a fan of the 'Oracle of Omaha' too but perhaps because, up here in Canada, we have more deep cyclical stocks I tend to trade those rather than having a buy and hold strategy with them, buy when the market hates them and sell when the market falls back in love with them. I love the cruise lines' product but for me they are just another deep cyclical. 

 

Edited by DirtyDawg
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It is both interesting and heartening to note how sensitive  the world is now to the continuing threat of Covid.
A year ago it took weeks to even notice the Delta threat ;  this new variant has barely been public for two days and already the markets are spooked , the brollys and raincoats are unpacked and the travel cancellation terms and conditions are once again being studied closely.

 

We are all more aware and mostly as prepared as we can be.. a good thing

 

 

 

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15 hours ago, tgh said:

It is both interesting and heartening to note how sensitive  the world is now to the continuing threat of Covid.  A year ago it took weeks to even notice the Delta threat ;  this new variant has barely been public for two days and already the markets are spooked.

 

Super appreciate ALL of these great comments, insights and follow-ups.  Lots is happening, quickly, right now.  Not sure where it heads in the next few month as the cruise and travel industries are hoping for BIG customer use and future sales during the next three months.  

 

Below are more details for how bad things looked for the three cruise lines during this past week, especially on "Black Friday".  It was not exactly aa good day for the overall stock market, too!!

 

To give more perspective for the Royal Caribbean stock, on Nov. 5, 2021, RCL was at $96.67.  Big drop in less than two months!!  And, on Jan. 13, 2020, RCL peaked at $135.05 and then by March 18, 2020, Royal Caribbean's stock dropped down, DOWN to $23.81.  Has it been a wild ride through choppy seas?  Where and when does the future head, up or down?

 

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Amazon River-Caribbean 2015 adventure live/blog starting in Barbados. Many visuals from this amazing river and Caribbean Islands (Dutch ABC's, St. Barts, Dominica, Grenada, San Juan, etc.).  Now at 69,081 views:

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2157696

 

From the Wall Street Journal after its Friday afternoon, these below charts shows the huge drop that hit Royal Caribbean and the other two major cruise companies Friday.  Down 13.22%.  Carnival and Norwegian Cruise Line Holding were both down around 11%.  The second chart shows how RCL has moved UP and DOWN during the last twelve months.  Has this been a big "roller coaster" ride during the past year?:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see these visuals larger/better!)

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6 hours ago, TLCOhio said:

Where and when does the future head, up or down?

 

My opinion, at least for our country, the future will continue to be bleak until there is mandatory Covid vaccinations by our government.  (Valid exemptions to be allowed.)  The reported rate of mandatory vaccinations for Federal employees proves to me that when such is done, the number of the vaccinations greatly improve.  There is NO VALID reason in the best interest of public health and the common good for vaccinations not to be required.  Other than politics.  We defeated Polio by such requirements.  

 

My opinion:  it's only a matter of time until such a requirement is made.  Why is it necessary for us to have to wait for a return to the normality that we experienced at the start of 2020?  

 

22 hours ago, tgh said:

We are all more aware and mostly as prepared as we can be.. a good thing

 

Yes, it is.  But, governments world wide are not yet doing what needs to be done to end this pandemic.  Politically unpopular; yet, are they so poorly educated in the sciences that they don't understand mandatory vaccinations are the exit door from this pandemic?  Statesmen/Stateswomen:  where are you in 2021?  

 

If one is concerned about one's investments in the cruise industry (and many others as well that are negatively impacted by Covid), it's time to be a vocal advocate for universal vaccinations.  

Edited by rkacruiser
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On 11/26/2021 at 4:04 PM, rkacruiser said:

 

I don't agree with these analysts thoughts about "mutations are often less severe..".  The Delta variant was a mutation and it certainly has created many issues, particularly for the unvaccinated.  

 

Yes, Delta has been the most serious variant to date. But there are indeed other variations which have not ben severe. Are you are that there have been eight named variants since Delta, prior to Omicron? Were Epsilon or Eta or Kappa severe? Did you even hear about them? (And there are many more variants which don't even get names.)

 

Omicron is of significant concern because it has been seen to be highly transmissible and because of the specifics or this variant: it has a large number of mutation on the spike protein which is the key to all the existing vaccines. It will take another week or two for the scientists to do enough testing to assess how well the vaccines perform in the lab and in the real world against this version of the virus, whether infection with this variant results in more severe illness, and whether is is more transmissible. 

 

As for the stock market reactions, well, we know that someone sneezing halfway around the world can spook the markets. We know that a company can report great earnings and yet get hammered if they project future profits which are good but not as good as analysts have previously predicted. We know that if one company in an industry has a down quarter, the stock market can push all other companies in the same market down even though there isn't a widespread problem. The markets frequently over-react to anything and everything. 😉

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26 minutes ago, cruiseej said:

The markets frequently over-react to anything and everything. 😉

 

An excellent post.  Buy quality companies and hold for the duration; ignore the reactions whether up or down  (for the most part); that has been what I have been doing for decades.  

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On 11/26/2021 at 11:20 PM, DirtyDawg said:

It looks like the downward trend in cruise line stocks will continue today. Both RCL and CCL are down about 10% in premarket trading. 

 

Equity markets are down globally as news of the new South African variant gets disseminated.

 

So today might be 'Red Friday' in the equity markets. 

And here was I thinking it was just the Dow having a Black Friday sale.

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On 11/28/2021 at 9:51 PM, drron29 said:

And here was I thinking it was just the Dow having a Black Friday sale.

 

Appreciate this above, fun comment and follow-up from our smart Aussie friend.  

 

From Forbes business magazine this morning, they had this headline: What’s Next For Royal Caribbean Stock Amid Renewed Covid Fears? with these highlights: Royal Caribbean stock, the second-largest cruise line operator, has declined by about 12% over the last week (five trading days), compared to the broader S&P 500, which has declined by about 2.6% over the same period. The sell-off follows the discovery of a highly mutated and apparently more transmissible new strain of the novel coronavirus, dubbed Omicron, which is prompting fears of renewed lockdowns and travel restrictions. The virus could pose a higher risk of re-infection compared to the Delta variant of the virus, which is currently the dominant strain worldwide, and it’s also not yet clear whether the current crop of Covid-19 vaccines will be as effective against the variant. If this virus strain drives another Covid wave or shows signs of evading vaccines, it could prove to be a meaningful headwind for Royal Caribbean and the broader cruising industry, which is only slowly getting back to normalcy after over a year of being essentially shut. That said, RCL stock still remains down by almost 50% from its pre-Covid highs and down by about 2% year-to-date, meaning that the risk is probably priced in.  Now, is RCL stock set to decline further or will it rise in the near-term? We believe that there is a decent 70% chance of a rise in Royal Caribbean stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years.

 

Full story at:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2021/12/02/whats-next-for-royal-caribbean-stock-amid-renewed-covid-fears/?sh=455f5cdf4a48

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

AFRICA?!!?: Fun, interesting visuals, plus travel details from this early 2016 live/blog. At 51,989 views. Featuring Cape Town, South Africa’s coast, Mozambique, Victoria Falls/Zambia and Botswana's famed Okavango Delta.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2310337

 

From the Wall Street Journal this afternoon, below is a little sample for how down and rocky has been the first three and a half days for the Royal Caribbean stock.  Yesterday, the RCL stock went down below $65 per share.  The stock market overall has been up significantly today.:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see this visual larger/better!)

1098060903_ScreenShot2021-12-02at1_38_03PM.thumb.png.9f21bc5c9ea2f76feeb3287fbcc50266.png

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1 hour ago, TLCOhio said:

From the Wall Street Journal this afternoon, below is a little sample for how down and rocky has been the first three and a half days for the Royal Caribbean stock.  Yesterday, the RCL stock went down below $65 per share.  The stock market overall has been up significantly today.:

 

One can almost get seasick just looking at these graphs.  

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On 12/2/2021 at 4:04 PM, rkacruiser said:

One can almost get seasick just looking at these graphs.  

 

Appreciate the above cute comment and follow-up regarding feeling "seasick" over these graphs for the recent trends of the major cruise line stock values.  

 

As shown below, it documents well why I am glad to not be a stockholder in the three major cruise lines.  Lots of uncertainty and questions in the financial community about the future trends for these stocks.  Am I missing something and/or being unfairly pessimistic?

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Athens & Greece: Many visuals, details from two visits in a city with great history, culture and architecture.  Now at 42,294 views.

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From the Wall Street Journal late Friday afternoon, below is a little sample for how down and rocky has been the most recent five days for the Royal Caribbean and the other two major cruise stocks. First is the chart for RCL during the past three months. Since Nov. 5, 2021, it has been a nearly straight downward slide from that $96.67 value on this date.  Next are the charts for these three stocks during the past week.  Both show a significant rocky and downward slide.  Is is all about Covid and the latest variant? :

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see these visuals larger/better!)

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6 hours ago, TLCOhio said:

As shown below, it documents well why I am glad to not be a stockholder in the three major cruise lines.  Lots of uncertainty and questions in the financial community about the future trends for these stocks.  Am I missing something and/or being unfairly pessimistic?

 

Unfairly pessimistic?  No, I don't think so.  There are reasons to be pessimistic.  But, as an owner of CCL and RCI shares (and have been for many years), we have been here before as to the stock price and its volatility.  Granted, the situation currently is different from the past and is lasting longer than the past.  But, for RCI, particularly, their stock price has not seen the lows that it did when I bought more shares after I had sold the ones that I held as the price was going down.  

 

6 hours ago, TLCOhio said:

Both show a significant rocky and downward slide.  Is is all about Covid and the latest variant? :

 

No, it's not all about Covid.  Jittery investors concerned about what the Fed is going to do and when, inflation that Secretary Yellen now admits is not a temporary aberration in our economy, and concern about the cost of fuel and supplies for the ships are helping to spook some of those investors in the cruise lines.  

 

More ships are being brought back into service.  Watch the Port Everglades and/or Fort Lauderdale web cams on sailing days.  I see people obviously happy to be back aboard a ship.  I am unaware that bookings have been dropping.  The demand for world cruises in 2023 and future years is beyond my belief.  

 

If the cruise lines could return to a sound enough financial condition that a small dividend could once again be paid, that would help their stock price.  But, we are 1-3 years away from that, in my opinion, simply because of the debt that had to be acquired to help keep them afloat.  

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On 12/4/2021 at 5:01 PM, rkacruiser said:

Unfairly pessimistic?  No, I don't think so.  There are reasons to be pessimistic.  But, as an owner of CCL and RCI shares (and have been for many years), we have been here before as to the stock price and its volatility.  No, it's not all about Covid.  Jittery investors concerned about what the Fed is going to do and when, inflation that Secretary Yellen now admits is not a temporary aberration in our economy, and concern about the cost of fuel and supplies for the ships are helping to spook some of those investors in the cruise lines.   

 

Appreciate this above follow-up and these key insights from our Ohio neighbor in the Dayton area.  Yes, lots of questions and uncertainties with cruising, the economy and medically.  

 

From the Wall Street Journal yesterday, they had this headline: Cruise Pricing Risks Sailing Off the Deep End" with this sub-headline: "Such pricing has never been a better deal for consumers in some cases. But companies can’t afford for that dynamic to last.” 

 

Here are some of their reporting details/highlights in a long profile:  "A prolonged pandemic is sinking near-term pricing for many cruises. The question, for an industry that badly needs the sales after more than a year largely ashore, is whether today’s discounts will weigh on cruise pricing longer term.  All three major cruise lines have recently voiced a focus on retaining ticket prices amid new Covid-19 variants. But as companies have been reintroducing ships back into the waters, they have had shorter timelines to sell near-term tickets. That has led to discounting to tempt people onboard in the coming months, especially as variants have proliferated and breakthrough infections in vaccinated consumers occur.  A note out from Truist Securities last month showed discounted ticket pricing by Carnival Corp. and Royal Caribbean Group for sailings in the first half of next year, citing conversations with senior executives at large travel agencies that specialize in cruises.  Royal Caribbean’s webpage opened to an offer of '30% off all guests,' plus additional discounts.

 

For Silversea, I do not think we have seen such discounting.  Right? Here is more from this WSJ story: "Historically, once cruise lines have started discounting, it can take years to get back to pre-discounted levels. As Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Chief Executive Officer Frank Del Rio explained on a conference call last month, long periods of clawbacks have occurred 'time and time again.'   He cautioned that some companies have still not recovered to pre-Great Recession yields more than a decade later. For that reason, he said Norwegian is 'fixated on pricing' and would sacrifice short-term occupancy to preserve it.  In an interview for this column, UBS analyst Robin Farley cautioned against applying recovery timelines from historical downturns to today’s situation. Hotels, she points out, have seen a much healthier recovery recently than from a usual downturn, noting prices are back ahead of occupancy in that sector.   Are you making plans to go on a cruise? Join the conversation below.  Relative to hotels, cruise-ship supply is limited."

 

At the end of this article, here is this key comment: "Truist’s Patrick Scholes did say the past 20 months have been unlike anything the cruise industry has seen before, musing, 'perhaps this time will be different.'  Cruise operators are hoping so. But investors might need to see firmer evidence of a rapid pricing recovery before they dive in."

 

Reactions and insights from others on this smart and experienced CC Board?

 

Full story at:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/cruise-pricing-risks-sailing-off-the-deep-end-11638716401

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Lisbon, NWSpain, Bordeaux/Brittany: Live/blog, June 2017 from Portugal to France along scenic Atlantic Coast on the Silver Spirit.  Now at 32,082 views.  Many interesting pictures, details for history, food, culture, etc.:

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2511358

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Good news!!  Stocks are moving up, sharply, this morning for the three major cruise lines.  You can see below for Royal Caribbean.  The other two major cruise lines are up by 7.5% or more, also.  At 10:34 am, RCL was up 8.04%.  Big, upward movement.  Are the markets sensing that this new variant might not be that serious with its impacts?

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Panama Canal? Early 2017, Fort Lauderdale to San Francisco adventure through Panama Canal.  Our first stops in Colombia, Central America and Mexico, plus added time in the great Golden Gate City. Now at 30,868 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2465580

 

From the Wall Street Journal this morning, here is the chart showing upward movement for the RCL stock.:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see this visual larger/better!)

654242832_ScreenShot2021-12-06at10_27_20AM.thumb.png.d60d85bacd8289f975492a05b3887872.png

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2 hours ago, rkacruiser said:

 

Someone must have coughed, if not sneezed, and RCI and CCL are both down today.  

 

(Where did I put my Meclazine?)  😀

They must have heard about the new price gouging regime at Silversea. Non-refundable deposits and we hate Venetians if you only buy a cruise. Guaranteed to get rid of a large percentage of your previously loyal customer base.

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10 hours ago, Silver Spectre said:

They must have heard about the new price gouging regime at Silversea. Non-refundable deposits and we hate Venetians if you only buy a cruise. Guaranteed to get rid of a large percentage of your previously loyal customer base.

 

Unfortunately that is very true. I hope they don't try to overwrite the previous T&C's I bought my current 3 bookings with. I trust the other CL I've started using don't play these games. There are already too many changes (Crazy price hikes, paying for excursions I don't want and home transfers I don't need) that ensures I have and will look elsewhere. The loss of EBB and this non refund policy has just broken my camels back.

 

I'm not sure this has been thought through, the impact it will make and where they think the replacement guests will come from to buy a pretty dire incentive less package that is (IMHO) not very competitive anymore and has just got less so. 

 

 

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