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SS/RCCL Finances: Improving, Options, Questions??!!


TLCOhio
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1 hour ago, rkacruiser said:

 

Such an activity was gone pre-Covid for concerns about virus/disease transmission.  Even if there was a reception with the Officers and select guests, "no shaking hands" was the usual experience.  Will the CDC have stricter rules in the future?  I'd be surprised if they didn't!  

 

My 2017 cruise did have this activity (and when it was "just" about Noro, I found it weird. https://boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2501556-isnt-this-the-best-way-to-get-everyone-sick-captain-shaking-hands/ )

Wouldn't be surprised when Noro outbreaks would become rare. 🙂 

 

 

 

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On 12/21/2021 at 3:58 PM, rkacruiser said:

What does this 90% really mean?  90% of the actual occupancy capacity of the ships pre-Covid?  Or 90% of the occupancy capacity on ships sailing with reduced guest lists due to Covid?  

 

Great above question.  Not all information shared by ship executives is clear and specific.  Much business data gets thrown around without clear context.  

 

Today, the New York Stock Exchange is closed for Christmas.  Below are the stock charts for the three major cruise lines during the most recent five days.  Trading for these three companies was up, UP, UP.  Very positive and significant movement.  

 

To be specific, from last Friday, Royal Caribbean went up from $69.17 to $79.53.  That's an increase of 14.98%.  Wow!!  Major movement.  Carnival went from $17.55 to 21.20.  Up 20.8%.  Norwegian went from $19.21 to $22.72.  Up 18.4%.  Where will these stock values be in mid and late January as we better figure out the practical impacts/results from the Covid variants during the next few weeks?  Any good guesses and/or reasonable speculation?

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Athens & Greece: Many visuals, details from two visits in a city with great history, culture and architecture.  Now at 42,587 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1101008

 

From the Wall Street Journal late yesterday, below are the stock charts for the three major cruise lines.  Not just UP, but way positive in a significant manner despite all of the Covid variant negative news.:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see these visuals larger/better!)

29175135_From6977.thumb.png.0fe1bdf580329426d4095384834a5209.png

 

1107012218_From17_55.thumb.png.71c8db5a3314df78518f93b6ae470c59.png

 

1276221371_From19_21.thumb.png.dbd6c4dc4860435df802952fb70cb477.png

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1 hour ago, TLCOhio said:

Where will these stock values be in mid and late January as we better figure out the practical impacts/results from the Covid variants during the next few weeks?  Any good guesses and/or reasonable speculation

 

Just what I said in post #574. After Diamond Princess, cruises are still seen as super-spreading events whereas staying at home except for shopping is deemed safe. That leads to lower capacity and a scared public, hence a lower stock price.  Omikron simply removes that difference. Or, in case of 100% vaccinated cruises, the ships might even be the safer places. A year from now people may get vaccinated every now and then, but Covid won't make the headlines like it did. And of course, pandemics have always either ended completely, or ended up being a runny nose.

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2 hours ago, AmazedByCruising said:

A year from now people may get vaccinated every now and then, but Covid won't make the headlines like it did.

 

I hope you are correct, but I would not bet on it.  Whoever thought a year ago we would still be in this situation on Christmas Eve 2021?  

 

I will predict that a 4th booster, at least, will be recommended if not required sometime during 2022. 

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45 minutes ago, rkacruiser said:

 

I hope you are correct, but I would not bet on it.  Whoever thought a year ago we would still be in this situation on Christmas Eve 2021?  

 

I will predict that a 4th booster, at least, will be recommended if not required sometime during 2022. 

 

Israel is already giving 4th shots, so I agree on that. 

 

Fingers crossed! 

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59 minutes ago, rkacruiser said:

 

I hope you are correct, but I would not bet on it.  Whoever thought a year ago we would still be in this situation on Christmas Eve 2021?  

 

I will predict that a 4th booster, at least, will be recommended if not required sometime during 2022. 

 

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13 minutes ago, TrulyBlonde said:

 

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Spain is reinstating indefinite outdoor masking mandates, regardless of social distancing (rare exceptions were added), starting Christmas Eve.

 

 

https://www.thelocal.es/20211223/minimum-impact-what-spains-health-experts-think-of-the-face-mask-outdoors-rule/

 

Cruise lines that sale around Spain and other countries  that copy,  ( because they have to do something) ,  will likely want to outdo them, because multiple boosters won't be enough to stop Omicron etc.

We already have masking mandates reintroduced in some ship gyms (which some pax cannot tolerate but oh well, they can just cancel -- and have done so).

Edited by Catlover54
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7 minutes ago, Catlover54 said:

 

 

Spain is reinstating indefinite outdoor masking mandates, regardless of social distancing (rare exceptions were added), starting Christmas Eve.

 

 

https://www.thelocal.es/20211223/minimum-impact-what-spains-health-experts-think-of-the-face-mask-outdoors-rule/

 

Cruise lines that sale around Spain and other countries  that copy,  ( because they have to do something) ,  will likely want to outdo them, because multiple boosters won't be enough to stop Omicron etc.

We already have masking mandates reintroduced in some ship gyms (which some pax cannot tolerate but oh well, they can just cancel -- and have done so).

Personally, I follow all of the guidelines. However, I cannot fathom wearing a mask on a flight for 11 or 12 hrs to get to Europe. Also, will most likely cancel a cruise I have booked end of April 2022 if we have to wear a mask. It is in the Caribbean (not my favorite place) and have a large FCC that we will just forfeit. The only reason we have the $5000 FCC is because our PH on X was not up to par when we went to Asia. Really not missing anything if we cancel. I prefer a smaller ship.

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28 minutes ago, TrulyBlonde said:

Personally, I follow all of the guidelines. However, I cannot fathom wearing a mask on a flight for 11 or 12 hrs to get to Europe. Also, will most likely cancel a cruise I have booked end of April 2022 if we have to wear a mask. It is in the Caribbean (not my favorite place) and have a large FCC that we will just forfeit. The only reason we have the $5000 FCC is because our PH on X was not up to par when we went to Asia. Really not missing anything if we cancel. I prefer a smaller ship.

 

Most Caribbean ports already have had indoor and outdoor mask rules (not on beaches  or when snorkeling) , and I doubt they will go away by April.  If you want to snorkel or swim you would probably be fine.  I was on X in November there, and also at least on board people were maskless (that is changing). 

 

Many (not most) people sailing now are sailing just to be on the ship, to eat and drink well  (still allowed maskless without masking in between bites), and/or  to spend time with each other in their own suites just relaxing, digesting, and watching the sea (though it certainly helps to have a nice suite). They don't get off in ports unless they have to to meet port mandates. Some don't even go to shows or activities.

 

A very active and fit senior friend of mine (e.g., bicycling 6-8 hours a day, with steep hills)  who had previously actually enjoyed taking her supersenior mom on a Rhein river cruise (with a port a day) was baffled when she learned this.  "Why would you want to spend days at a time and thousands of dollars floating around with a bunch of strangers?"  She clearly does not have the cruising addiction  "gene" (her view is skewed by the fact she  lives in a mild climate not only near the sea, but also conducive to year-round outdoor activities). 

 

Terry is tracking speculation on cruise line stock prices.  Stocks are not likely to surge until the burden (including price, anxiety,  and physical discomfort) of cruising stops rising  above the perceived benefits, especially when compared with other activities that are available to the cruising affluent.

Edited by Catlover54
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@Catlover54  I just cannot imagine wearing a mask in the heat and humidity of the Caribbean.

We actually have booked a nice trip to Yosemite and have plans to stay pre cruise at The Post Ranch Inn in Big Sur. A bucket list hotel of mine and would prefer this type of travel for the time being.

 

I have no desire to be quarantined on some island and hope to be back on a ship when everything normalizes and is accepted as endemic with therapeutics offered along with the vaccines.

 

Bon Voyage to you and stay healthy.

 

 

 

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23 hours ago, rkacruiser said:

I was unaware that Israel had started the 4th shot.

 

Israel was preparing to give 4th shots, but has not yet done so. From the Times of Israel yesterday:

 

The Health Ministry has reportedly decided that Israel will not begin offering fourth doses of the COVID-19 vaccine starting on Sunday as planned for Israelis over 60 and others at risk.

 

The delay is due to the latest British findings that that people with Omicron are between 50 and 70 percent less likely to need hospitalization than those with the Delta strain.

 

It's worth noting that Israel was doing this preemptively, without any studies yet on the effectiveness of a fourth shot. And as the New York Times reports, "some scientists warned that the [4th shot] plan could backfire, because too many shots might cause a sort of immune system fatigue, compromising the body’s ability to fight the coronavirus."

 

22 hours ago, TrulyBlonde said:

I just cannot imagine wearing a mask in the heat and humidity of the Caribbean.

 

We did a cruise in the Caribbean in September-October. We needed to wear masks on excursions but not on the ship at that time. But even though we now need to wear masks to walk the corridors and enter/exit a restaurant, that amounts to a minuscule portion of our time onboard and wouldn't bother us at all. you don't wear a mask in your suite, while eating or drinking, while at the pool or otherwise out on deck, or on a beach. We obviously all have different comfort levels with masks, but we wear masks going into restaurants or it stores at home, so needing to wear a mask for a few minutes here and there on the ship wouldn't impact us at all.

The longest mask wearing is actually getting to a cruise ship and back: from the time you park the car at the airport, take a shuttle to the terminal, check in and wait to board, take the flight, go through customs and immigration, take a taxi to your hotel, and check-in. I surely don't like wearing a mask for those 7-8 hours, but that's not enough to deter us from traveling. 

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On 12/25/2021 at 9:11 PM, cruiseej said:

Israel was preparing to give 4th shots, but has not yet done so. From the Times of Israel yesterday:

 

The Health Ministry has reportedly decided that Israel will not begin offering fourth doses of the COVID-19 vaccine starting on Sunday as planned for Israelis over 60 and others at risk.

 

The delay is due to the latest British findings that that people with Omicron are between 50 and 70 percent less likely to need hospitalization than those with the Delta strain. 

 

I'm sorry, I thought they did start already. 

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On 12/24/2021 at 4:30 PM, Catlover54 said:

Terry is tracking speculation on cruise line stock prices.  Stocks are not likely to surge until the burden (including price, anxiety,  and physical discomfort) of cruising stops rising  above the perceived benefits, especially when compared with other activities that are available to the cruising affluent.

 

Appreciate all of these great comments and follow-ups.  Yes, it is challenging to figure out how the Wall Street speculation will be shifting, up and down.  Lots of "moving parts" happening right now!!

 

From two different financial website this morning, they had interesting headlines.  From one: “Carnival stock surges to 6-week high despite continued spike in COVID cases”  with this sub-headline: "Carnival has the most cruise ships that have reported cases of COVID-19 with 29, nearly triple the number of its ships that have reported no cases, according to CDC data."  Another linked story had this summary headline: "Why Carnival Stock Bounced Back Today."

 

Here are some highlights from one of these stories/analysis: Shares of Carnival Corp. rallied Tuesday toward a six week high, as investors shrugged off concerns of what the recent spike in COVID-19 cases to the highest daily rates in nearly a year might mean for the cruise industry.  Carnival’s stock rose 1.7% in midday trading, enough to make it the sixth-biggest gainer among S&P 500 index SPX components. The stock was on track to close at the highest level since Nov. 17.  Meanwhile, 543.415 new cases of COVID-19 were recorded on Monday, to lift the seven-day average of cases to 243,099, the most since Jan. 13, and nearly triple the Nov. 15 daily average of 83,632.

 

Full stories at:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/carnival-stock-surges-to-6-week-high-despite-continued-spike-in-covid-cases-11640710396?adobe_mc=MCMID%3D64368917477333601990043620758670218094|MCORGID%3DCB68E4BA55144CAA0A4C98A5%40AdobeOrg|TS%3D1640711670

https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/12/28/why-carnival-stock-bounced-back-today/

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Lisbon, NWSpain, Bordeaux/Brittany: Live/blog, June 2017 from Portugal to France along scenic Atlantic Coast on the Silver Spirit.  Now at 32,129 views.  Many interesting pictures, details for history, food, culture, etc.:

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2511358

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Even Israel, vaccination and booster champion of the world, doesn't bother anymore. Omicron is too contagious. "Israel has no plan to stop the Omicron wave that has already swept across the country."

 

https://www.jpost.com/health-and-wellness/coronavirus/article-689998

 

The US had 2.7 million new cases in the last two weeks, almost 1% of the population. Not too precise: that's 30 people for a 1 one week cruise on a 6000 pax ship.  CDC puts a ship on the Yellow list if it's more than 0.1%, 6 people on a 6000 pax ship.  

 

https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/cruise/cruise-ship-color-status.html

 

Despite the headlines about 20 cases on this ship and 60 on that one, those numbers are comparable to an average US community. 

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Appreciate these excellent follow-ups from AmazedByCruising and CruiserFromMaine.  Keep it coming!!.  

 

As an example for the "rocky" nature facing the cruise lines values these days, see the below example from mid-day today/Wednesday with Carnival.  

 

From the below financial website this morning, they had this headline: “Carnival Ships Are Facing a Surge in Covid Cases. Cruise Stocks Are Falling.” with these highlights:Cruise lines are facing a wave of Covid-19 cases, with dozens of ships under investigation by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention amid onboard outbreaks.  While investors seemed to ignore this fact for much of December, it could now be weighing on the stocks.

 

Full story at:

https://www.barrons.com/articles/carnival-covid-cases-cruise-stocks-51640784835

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Panama Canal? Early 2017, Fort Lauderdale to San Francisco adventure through Panama Canal.  Our first stops in Colombia, Central America and Mexico, plus added time in the great Golden Gate City. Now at 30,900 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2465580

 

From the Wall Street Journal, this chart example illustrates how "ROCKY" it has been during the past five trading days for Carnival.:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see this visual larger/better!)

1703155348_ScreenShot2021-12-29at12_07_07PM.thumb.png.77eb58029fa663275f855429893cde80.png

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The stock market has closed and finished for the year 2021.  Good or bad? From the Wall Street Journal late today, below are some charts to reflect the overall stock market, plus Royal Caribbean's stock during then past week and during this entire 2021 year.  Then, a chart for RCL during the most recent three-year period.  

 

Do these charts make you sea-sick?  Next, I will have the charts for the other two major cruise lines.  

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

From late 2018, see “Holy Lands, Egypt, Jordan, Oman, Dubai, Greece, etc.”, with many visuals, details and ideas for the historic and scenic Middle East. Now at 20,300 views.  Connect at:

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2607054-livenautica-greece-holy-lands-egypt-dubai-terrypix’s/

 

From the Wall Street Journal late this afternoon, below is first a chart showing the overall trends for the twelve months of this year by three different ways of measuring these overall markets. For most stocks, it has been up, UP!!  Next is Royal Caribbean during the past week.  Rather a "rocky" week??  Next is the overall up and down trends for RCL during the past twelve months.  Finally, it is a WSJ chart showing the high and then sliding shifts for RCL during the past three years.:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see these visuals larger/better!)

375951594_ScreenShot2021-12-31at4_59_31PM.thumb.png.b1cee2f715905c45c431b4a7cb8de5e8.png

 

Most Recent Five Trading Days of 2021: 

1288934161_ScreenShot2021-12-31at5_05_57PM.thumb.png.a32be12f9f512933a3a12ee34c95f945.png

 

Twelve Months of 2021: 

679094029_ScreenShot2021-12-31at5_06_25PM.thumb.png.ebe6dda796dc75409040b49d883c5a2d.png

 

Thirty-Six Months of 2019-21: 

705173992_ScreenShot2021-12-31at5_06_54PM.thumb.png.1f3d8173748354a2ea3c63953cf56968.png

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From the Wall Street Journal late today, here are the charts, this past week, past year and for the most recent three years for Carnival and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings.  In general, these three major cruise lines seem to have moved in similar patterns.  Right?

 

Where for the next twelve months?  How do you gamble and bet?

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio   

 

Barcelona/Med: June 2011, with stops in Villefranche, ports near Pisa and Rome, Naples, Kotor, Venice and Dubrovnik. Great visuals with key highlights, tips, etc. Live/blog now at 254,261 views.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1426474

 

From the Wall Street Journal late this afternoon, below are Carnival's values during the past five days.  Next is the overall up and down trends for Carnival during the past twelve month period.  Finally, it is a WSJ chart showing the highs and then sliding shifts for Carnival during the past three years.:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see these visuals larger/better!)

1799131894_ScreenShot2021-12-31at5_40_16PM.thumb.png.2b7c52ab53d3282cab0f2f19e4ea865c.png

 

519739099_ScreenShot2021-12-31at5_40_35PM.thumb.png.873867e49b48f97ecb644a039dbee20f.png

 

268895562_ScreenShot2021-12-31at5_40_53PM.thumb.png.b2e0c854e86c7827fb0ded0b504b2f57.png

 

 

Also from the Wall Street Journal today, here are the three different charts to reflect the short-term and longer-period trends for Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings.

358332195_ScreenShot2021-12-31at5_41_25PM.thumb.png.d18b5bbef034fe5315c57a9dd6255a8e.png

 

605055105_ScreenShot2021-12-31at5_47_20PM.thumb.png.ed965586a1f917d704033749b985faf0.png

 

1331170636_ScreenShot2021-12-31at5_47_36PM.thumb.png.940300d3b7ce44089476ac9375ae09a2.png

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On 12/31/2021 at 6:20 PM, A Tucson Guy said:

I feel like I am gambling by having paid in full for 2 SS cruises in 2022!! Luckily the first cruise is in July and hopefully, the world will be a different place!!

 

Agree with this wise comment and follow-up from our Arizona friend that paying-up in full for two SS cruises in 2022 is somewhat of a gamble.  Hopefully it is a fairly low-risk, roll of the dice.  Maybe?  Good luck!!  YES, we all desire for a return to a closer form of "normal", sooner, not too much later.    

 

From the Wall Street Journal's sister publication of Barron's yesterday afternoon, they had this headline: Cruise Operators Are Sailing Despite Omicron. The Stocks Are Holding Up. with these highlights:Despite a blunt recommendation from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to avoid cruise travel, the industry is sailing on for now as it tries to recover from the pandemic.  The same holds true for the cruise operators’ stocks, which slid in the last few days of 2021 but still held up relatively well in the second half of December.  'Investors are completely taking this in stride,' Chris Woronka, an analyst at Deutsche Bank who covers the cruise lines and other travel sectors, told Barron’s on Saturday.  But it hasn’t been smooth sailing, and plenty of hurdles remain. As of Saturday afternoon, there were no reports of any cruise voyage cancellations, though the Omicron variant is believed to have forced the cruise operators to review their itineraries, including which ports they call on.

 

Here is more from their interesting reporting:  "Patrick Scholes, a travel and leisure analyst at Truist Securities, points out that the CDC’s action comes at an especially bad time for the cruise operators.  'It’s a very inopportune time to have that happen because we are going into the big selling season,' says Scholes. 'It’s going to hurt, the degree of which we don’t know yet. But there’s absolutely nothing good coming out of that announcement' by the CDC.  Still, Woronka says that enthusiasm for cruising remains strong among travelers. The largest bucket of cruise customers, he says, 'are going to go on sailings.  Royal Caribbean’s load factors, essentially bookings, for sailings in the first half of this year are below historical levels but are within their historical ranges for the second half of 2022, the company said."

 

Full story at: Here is more from their interesting reporting:

https://www.barrons.com/articles/cruise-operators-are-sailing-despite-omicron-the-stocks-are-holding-up-51641067397?mod=article_signInButton

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Norway Coast/Fjords/Arctic Circle cruise from Copenhagen, July 2010, to the top of Europe. Scenic visuals with key tips. Live/blog at 243,246 views.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1227923

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From the Wall Street Journal's sister publication of Barron's, below are three charts giving added, longer-term perspective as to the shifting and mostly rising values of the three major cruise lines as valued by the Wall Street folks.  Due to different corporate structure timings, each of these three value charts cover varied timings.    

 

As added information, here are the current market valuations/caps for these three corporations: 

 

Royal Caribbean Market Cap:              $19.59B

Carnival Market Cap:                              $22.56B

Norwegian Holdings Market Cap:        $8.65B

 

Does this help provide more information to gauge how much you want to risk in advance cruise payments?  What is not shown, most currently, by either the Wall Street Journal or Barron's, is the total debt that has been floated by these cruise lines during the past two, challenging years.  That's one of the serious long-term question.  Right?

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Sydney to NZ/Auckland Adventure, live/blog 2014 sampling/details with many exciting visuals and key highlights.  On page 23, post #571, see a complete index for all of the pictures, postings.  Now at 234,657 views.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1974139

 

Royal Caribbean Stock Value History from Barron's:

609572038_ScreenShot2022-01-02at2_17_42PM.thumb.png.b43838e4ad978d80e3b1ba9b30454c02.png

 

Carnival Stock Value History:

979640936_ScreenShot2022-01-02at2_18_28PM.thumb.png.1749358accb6e983cb752f90ab26303e.png

 

Norwegian Holdings Stock Value History:

316060026_ScreenShot2022-01-02at2_19_47PM.thumb.png.b59157380ca98d10a801e0848ecef4b2.png

 

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43 minutes ago, TLCOhio said:

As of Saturday afternoon, there were no reports of any cruise voyage cancellations, though the Omicron variant is believed to have forced the cruise operators to review their itineraries, including which ports they call on

 

I'm not sure that much is earned at current voyages. People in quarantine don't drink or buy shorex, instead they want their money back. Maybe the ships should pause for a while instead of trying to earn a few pennies in the next few months and get a bad reputation in return. Ships with hundreds of quarantined pax in the news doesn't help. 

I keep my hopes up for June, July maybe. Summer is always good, we know that already. But by then, Omicron will have burned through society, boosting all of the infected in its path. I'm not a virologist, but I guess that at worst, a new variant shows up for which our immune systems aren't prepared by either vaccines or Omicron. That would postpone the party. And there will always be new outbreaks (even if there was a way to isolate all infected people, there are even deer that carry it). But even then there will be a time when Covid is more like Noro. 

 

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