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SS/RCCL Finances: Improving, Options, Questions??!!


TLCOhio
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Posted (edited)

The CSX stock that I inherited from my dad has been doing quite well.

Also the Ford stock I bought awhile back a @ $ 3.00 has been great.

Edited by zqtchas
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6 hours ago, TLCOhio said:

Glad that I do not directly own any of those stocks these days with the "Greenies" attacking them and trying to put them out of business.  Fair or unfair summary?

 

Very fair, I think.  I am just hoping for improved financial conditions for these companies.  If the Kwh price was more competitive for electricity produced by the companies that produce environmentally friendly electricity, I'd be interested in switching my electric provider.  My Township has a proposal for electric rate aggregation on the May Primary (if it really happens) ballot and I wonder how they will affect rates if it passes.  Many questions regarding the energy industry today!  

 

6 hours ago, TLCOhio said:

WOW!!  A nearly two billion dollar loss in one quarter is kind of like "real money".  Right?   Will Carnival and the other cruise lines really be able to return to profits in the third quarter of 2022?

 

I doubt it.  And, the day of their ability of paying dividends again won't be for quite some time.  Certainly not 2022 and I doubt 2023 or 2024.  

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23 hours ago, zqtchas said:

The CSX stock that I inherited from my dad has been doing quite well.  Also the Ford stock I bought awhile back a @ $ 3.00 has been great.

 

Yes, the stock market has lots of ups and downs.  It is always hard to guess/predict the variations and future movements.  

 

Here is more from Carnival's quarterly report.  From the Reuters newswire and MSN News earlier this past week, they had this headline: Carnival forecasts loss in 2022 as Ukraine crisis pushes fuel prices with these highlights: Carnival Corp on Tuesday forecast a loss for the year as the U.S. cruise operator's efforts to gradually restart operations after a long pandemic-led hiatus face a setback from a surge in fuel prices due to the Russia-Ukraine crisis.  Analysts expect rising fuel costs to temper near-term operating results. Jefferies estimates fuel costs to be 8-10% higher than previously anticipated for the first half of 2022, and 10-11% higher for the second half.  'It's certainly not the first time we've seen a dramatic spike in fuel prices ... (we) are stepping up our efforts to further reduce consumption,' Carnival Chief Executive Officer Arnold Donald said on a post-earnings call.  Carnival, which had expected to return to positive monthly earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) in the second quarter, now expects adjusted EBITDA to turn positive in the summer.

 

Recovery and re-opening is not happening as quickly as some/most had desired and hoped.

 

Full story at:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/carnival-sales-disappoint-as-spike-in-covid-cases-hurt-cruise-demand/ar-AAVmRQm?ocid=BingNewsSearch

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Summer 2019 Calgary, Jasper/Banff National Parks, Western Canada Rocky Mountaineer rail adventure, Vancouver, sailing up to Alaska on Silver Muse, post-cruise excursion to Denali, etc.  Many visuals and details from our first in these scenic areas!  Live/blog: 

https://boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2682584-live-terryohio-silver-muse-alaska-canadarockies-pix’s/

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It's threads like these https://boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2840607-covid-outbreak-on-the-ruby/ that make me think that the cruise lines may not fully understand the dangers of Covid. After more than 2 years.

 

Out of 10 people infected, at least one or two will remember their cruise as the start of the health problems that might last for the rest of their lives. And that's just the problems we know about, many people not being able to work anymore, and even a recent study finding "shrinking brains".

 

I don't think that impacts stock prices very much in the short term, but in the long term it's really bad to have a common connotation of cruises being bad for your health. Noro has always been a nuisance, but probably more a story about how you can have bad luck.

 

I wonder what the other people on this thread think. For instance, would you think people wouldn't go to certain countries because they know someone who got malaria in Zimbabwe? 

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14 hours ago, AmazedByCruising said:

It's threads like these https://boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2840607-covid-outbreak-on-the-ruby/ that make me think that the cruise lines may not fully understand the dangers of Covid. After more than 2 years.

Out of 10 people infected, at least one or two will remember their cruise as the start of the health problems that might last for the rest of their lives.

 

Agree that there is much that the cruise lines and the "experts" do not, yet, fully understand.  We have good friends with whom we have traveled who have each had their fifth Covid infections.  They are vaccinated, etc., but keep getting it.  Is that due to the various variants?  Strange??  Had to know and figure out.  Appreciate the comments and follow-up.  

 

From this financial service linked below this morning, they had this headline: Carnival Continues to Sink After an Analyst Downgrade" with this sub-headline: "CCL stock appears to be looking for direction at the moment.

 

Here are some of their analysis highlights:Carnival got a smackdown on March 25 when Argus Research analyst John Staszak downgraded CCL stock from a 'buy' to a 'hold.' The analyst believes high fuel prices and a stubborn omicron variant suggest now is not the time to buy shares in the world’s largest cruise ship operator.  There are a couple other issues hanging over Carnival’s head that Staszak didn’t mention. At the moment, those who bought last July in the low $30s have got to be wondering if CCL stock can return to those prices. Ultimately, it’s up to omicron to decide if Carnival is ready to resume 100% of its operations. However, surging cases suggest investors should hold off on CCL stock.

 

Full story at:

https://investorplace.com/2022/03/carnival-continues-to-sink-after-an-analyst-downgrade/

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Early 2020 (right before Covid shut-down), many visuals and details from New Zealand/South Pacific in going from Auckland to French Polynesia.  This includes Bora Bora, Fiji, NZ experiences, etc:  Live/blog;

https://boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2735732-live-terryohio-“new”-regatta-south-pacificnz-pix’s/

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On 3/30/2022 at 8:01 PM, rkacruiser said:

Yet, such discouraging news may be a buying opportunity.  

 

Agree that the question of "a buying opportunity" is always a good and challenging one to consider. 

 

Below are the charts for the past week.  All mostly upward and positive!!   Is the world calming somewhat and Covid is getting more under control?  Lots of potential reasons/factors to consider.  

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio   

 

Barcelona/Med: June 2011, with stops in Villefranche, ports near Pisa and Rome, Naples, Kotor, Venice and Dubrovnik. Great visuals with key highlights, tips, etc. Live/blog now at 254,628 views.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1426474

 

From the Wall Street Journal during the most recent five trading days, below are the charts for the three major cruise lines.  For the past week, it has been a good upward movement.  A sign of what will be happening for the future?:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see these visuals larger/better!)

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17046018_ScreenShot2022-04-01at4_06_41PM.thumb.png.1cf1e7cc3dbd97490eb1e89811c39259.png

 

435027739_ScreenShot2022-04-01at4_07_14PM.thumb.png.e590140e4ccb9ba137a0654a86944b03.png

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From the Wall Street Journal's sister publication of Barron's this past week, they had this headline: CDC Lifts Covid Travel Advisory for Cruises. Two Cruise Lines to Buy and One to Sell, According to One Analyst. with these highlights:Cruise lines are trading down along with the broader market on Wednesday, but Carnival is seeing deeper losses than peers Royal Caribbean Group and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings following a skeptical take on the former from Wells Fargo.  Analyst Daniel Politzer initiated coverage on all three U.S. cruise stocks on Wednesday. He is optimistic about the sector, which he calls 'one of the few remaining recovery stories' among consumer stocks, citing his 'expectation for improving fundamentals in the coming quarters.' 

 

Here is more that might be of interest: "The industry received positive news on Wednesday, when the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention lifted its travel health advisory. The move means travelers must determine their own Covid-19 risk assessment when traveling on a cruise ship.  Politzer’s optimism doesn’t extend to Carnival, which he rates at Underweight with a $21 price target. As is so often the case recently, blame the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Politzer is concerned by the company’s international footprint—historically North America has accounted for less of its business than peers. He also worries about Carnival’s pricing power. Carnival is set to increase capacity by 5.7% this year, its highest level in more than a decade, but historically yields, or pricing, has lagged on added capacity. 'With pricing a key driver for cruise line stocks (higher yields flow straight to the bottom line), we see less opportunity for Carnival to achieve outsized' earnings growth relative to peers, he writes.  That said, he notes that if the situation in Ukraine were to resolve, Carnival could also see a bigger bounce back that other cruise lines.  Politzer is more bullish on Royal Caribbean and Norwegian, starting coverage of both with Buy ratings and price targets of $93 and $27, respectively.   For Royal Caribbean, he highlights the company’s industry-leading technology and pricing power, relatively high exposure to North American market, and the fact that it hedges fuel exposure."

 

Full story at:

https://www.barrons.com/articles/cdc-lifts-covid-travel-advisory-for-cruises-two-cruise-lines-to-buy-and-one-to-sell-according-to-one-analyst-51648670593?refsec=travel

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio 

 

Norway Coast/Fjords/Arctic Circle cruise from Copenhagen, July 2010, to the top of Europe. Scenic visuals with key tips. Live/blog at 243,843 views.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1227923

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3 minutes ago, TLCOhio said:

That said, he notes that if the situation in Ukraine were to resolve, Carnival could also see a bigger bounce back that other cruise lines

 

I wish the markets were open now, seeing cautiously positive tweets in my time line. 🙂

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On 4/2/2022 at 3:41 PM, AmazedByCruising said:

I wish the markets were open now, seeing cautiously positive tweets in my time line. 🙂

 

Maybe our friend from Hollard is not the only person sensing "good news".  See below.    

 

From this below-linked Wall Street financial website this morning, they had this headline: Why Cruise Line Stocks Are Sailing Higher with these highlights:Tuesday morning brought some hesitation to Wall Street, as market participants got a reminder that geopolitical problems are still extreme and will likely persist for a long time. The U.S. government imposed restrictions that prevented the Russian government from using U.S. bank reserves to pay bondholders, pushing Russia toward what increasingly appears to be an imminent default. That made investors more nervous about whether the war in Ukraine will come to a favorable resolution in the near future. As of 7 a.m. ET, futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were down 91 points to 34,738.  However, an area of the stock market that many investors have stopped paying such close attention to lately managed to show some signs of life. Cruise ship stocks took a huge hit during the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and their recovery has been slow in coming. The latest news from some key players in the industry, however, suggest that consumer demand for cruises is still strong and should help bolster cruise ship operators over time.

 

Here are more specifics from their analysis: "Shares of Carnival were up almost 4% in premarket trading on Tuesday morning. Carnival revealed that it had its busiest booking week in its history during the period from March 28 to April 3. The cruise ship operator didn't offer specific numbers, but it did say that the new figure smashed the old record for a seven-day booking total, eclipsing it by a double-digit percentage.  Currently, Carnival has 22 of its 23 ships back in operation in all the homeports that serve the U.S. market around the year.   Carnival is bulking up to meet anticipated high demand. By the end of 2022, it expects to have more sailing capacity than it had before the pandemic in 2019. Other cruise ship operators saw their shares rise as well. Both Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings and Royal Caribbean Cruises were up between 2% and 3% in premarket trading."

 

Full story at:

https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/04/05/why-cruise-line-stocks-are-sailing-higher-tuesday/

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Sydney to NZ/Auckland Adventure, live/blog 2014 sampling/details with many exciting visuals and key highlights.  On page 23, post #571, see a complete index for all of the pictures, postings.  Now at 235,716 views.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1974139

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From the Wall Street Journal early this morning, below is the chart that shows how sharply up, UP was the stock of Royal Caribbean.  Carnival was up 7.55% and Norwegian was up nearly 6%.  Is something happening?

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio   

 

Venice: Loving It & Why??!!  Is one of your future desires or past favorites? See these many visual samples for its great history and architecture.  This posting is now at 94,860 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1278226

 

708879729_ScreenShot2022-04-05at9_52_33AM.thumb.png.7933b8603d88c1db31b7aa8fd661d5d6.png

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I thought they say this all the time but they are pointing to this

 

"Carnival rallied 3.6% in the premarket after the cruise line operator said the seven-day period from March 28 through April 3 was the busiest week for new cruise bookings in the company’s history."

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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, TLCOhio said:

Is something happening?

 

Trading on such short terms news is unwise.  

 

6 hours ago, RetiredandTravel said:

the seven-day period from March 28 through April 3 was the busiest week for new cruise bookings in the company’s history."

 

More precise data with actual historical and current figures would be helpful.  

Edited by rkacruiser
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22 minutes ago, rkacruiser said:

Trading on such short terms news is unwise.  

 

From above, do you mean on the stock market, what goes up, can quickly go down??  Wise point of caution.  

 

From the Wall Street Journal late this afternoon, here below is what happened with the value of the Royal Caribbean stock value later today after the super positive jump in the morning.  Things went DOWN!!  For the earlier am spikes, Carnival finished only up 2.43% and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings up 1.00%.    None of this was bad, but during the day, things did not sustain the earlier big, BIG jumps upward.  

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio   

 

Amazon River-Caribbean 2015 adventure live/blog starting in Barbados. Many visuals from this amazing river and Caribbean Islands (Dutch ABC's, St. Barts, Dominica, Grenada, San Juan, etc.).  Now at 69,641 views:

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2157696

 

1709451359_ScreenShot2022-04-05at5_06_42PM.thumb.png.99c950cb2e3150f417b1a8967b5d71e3.png

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1 hour ago, TLCOhio said:

None of this was bad, but during the day, things did not sustain the earlier big, BIG jumps upward.  

 

Is there anyone that can explain the sudden rush of enthusiasm for some to so quickly make investments on such tenuous news?  

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Just now, rkacruiser said:

 

Is there anyone that can explain the sudden rush of enthusiasm for some to so quickly make investments on such tenuous news?  

Money burning holes in their pockets??

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Just now, d9704011 said:

Money burning holes in their pockets??

 

Maybe they have not received their copy of their 2021 tax return from their CPA showing the amount of $$ owed to the Federal and State governments and the 2022 estimated tax payments for both levels of government?  

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39 minutes ago, rkacruiser said:

 

Maybe they have not received their copy of their 2021 tax return from their CPA showing the amount of $$ owed to the Federal and State governments and the 2022 estimated tax payments for both levels of government?  

You guys pay taxes in the United States!?

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14 hours ago, rkacruiser said:

Maybe they have not received their copy of their 2021 tax return from their CPA showing the amount of $$ owed to the Federal and State governments and the 2022 estimated tax payments for both levels of government?  

 

YES, it is tax time here in the United States.  We have to pay . . . pay more!!  Need to work on finishing those taxes today.  Why wait till the last minute?  Good follow-ups.  

 

From a trade publication this morning, they had this headline: New Royal Caribbean Group chief eyes new-builds and weighs acquisitions with these highlights: “The new president and chief executive officer of Royal Caribbean Group says he is already considering new-builds for all three of the company’s brands and orders would be placed 'as soon as business is back to normal pre-Covid levels, which is not far out'.  Speaking in France as he oversaw his first in-person ship delivery – Celebrity Cruises’ third Edge-class ship Celebrity Beyond – Jason Liberty said: 'It could be later this year, or next year, but we have ships still on order through to 2026, so we have a little time.'  Liberty added that no ships had been ordered for a couple of years.  'We do things with great intent – whether that’s building the best contemporary family brand with Royal Caribbean, modern luxury with Celebrity or ultra-luxury and expedition with Silversea.'  'All the data supports the demographics and the consumer trends – and we believe all three are going to grow, so we are going to need more ships.'  'The addressable market in these segments is huge. We take the learnings of each ship and roll them back into the fleet or into future designs. We are dreamers [and] innovators.'  Liberty said Royal Caribbean Group was currently in a 'very strong financial position' and had 'performed very well versus our competitors' as he confirmed the group could also consider acquiring ships.”

 

Here is more from their reporting: "Asked if he was eyeing any of the Crystal Cruises fleet, he said the demise of the line was a 'real shame' but he was comfortable with the group’s ultra-luxury offering, having just taken delivery of Silversea Cruises’ Silver Moon and Dawn and with the Silver Nova class to come.  However, he added: 'We haven’t ordered anything in expedition. They have one expedition ship. Expedition ships could be of interest.' ”

 

Full story at:

https://travelweekly.co.uk/news/cruise/new-royal-caribbean-group-chief-eyes-new-builds-and-weighs-acquisitions

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

AFRICA?!!?: Fun, interesting visuals, plus travel details from this early 2016 live/blog. At 52,518 views. Featuring Cape Town, South Africa’s coast, Mozambique, Victoria Falls/Zambia and Botswana's famed Okavango Delta.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2310337

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20 hours ago, rkacruiser said:

Is there anyone that can explain the sudden rush of enthusiasm for some to so quickly make investments on such tenuous news?  

 

From the Wall Street Journal late this afternoon, below is the closing of Royal Caribbean.  In just two trading days, the RCL stock has gone down from $87.10 to $80.30.  That is a 7.8% drop in less than two days.  Just today alone, Carnival dropped 6.8% and Norwegian went down 6.94%.  

 

Something is happening and I am not sure it is all good and solid.  Either the traders on Wall Street know certain significant facts and/or they are missing it totally.  Any good guesses or high-class speculation?

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Kotor/Montenegro:  Exciting visual samples, tips, details, etc., for this scenic, historic location. Over 49,067 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1439193

 

1102989722_ScreenShot2022-04-06at4_09_43PM.thumb.png.f12ca6c00503cd9094f49c4e43eb502e.png

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3 minutes ago, TLCOhio said:

From the Wall Street Journal late this afternoon, below is the closing of Royal Caribbean.  In just two trading days, the RCL stock has gone down from $87.10 to $80.30.  That is a 7.8% drop in less than two days.  Just today alone, Carnival dropped 6.8% and Norwegian went down 6.94%.  

 

Not surprised that this has happened and it does support my previous post.

 

4 minutes ago, TLCOhio said:

Something is happening and I am not sure it is all good and solid.  Either the traders on Wall Street know certain significant facts and/or they are missing it totally.  Any good guesses or high-class speculation?

 

Who is buying and selling these companies?  Institutional investors or we, little people?  Knowing that might help to answer your question.  

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23 minutes ago, rkacruiser said:

 

Not surprised that this has happened and it does support my previous post.

 

 

Who is buying and selling these companies?  Institutional investors or we, little people?  Knowing that might help to answer your question.  

The Fed seems determined to significantly raise interest rates as an inflation fighting measure.  All of these cruise companies likely borrowed heavily over the last couple of years to keep themselves afloat and their debt/loans are likely to become much more expensive to carry when refinancing rears its ugly head.  So, the future doesn't look so good especially since people are still not ready to pay lots of money in a mad dash to cram the ships full this summer when the prospect of spending a large portion of their vacation in isolation/quarantine is quite real to them.

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17 hours ago, d9704011 said:

The Fed seems determined to significantly raise interest rates as an inflation fighting measure.  All of these cruise companies likely borrowed heavily over the last couple of years to keep themselves afloat and their debt/loans are likely to become much more expensive to carry when refinancing rears its ugly head.  So, the future doesn't look so good especially since people are still not ready to pay lots of money in a mad dash to cram the ships full this summer when the prospect of spending a large portion of their vacation in isolation/quarantine is quite real to them.

 

Great above point by our Canada neighbor about how higher interest rates can and will impact the cruise lines with their massive borrowings and other financial "tricks" to sustain/cover their losses during the past two years.  

 

By late this morning, things continue down sharply for the three major cruise lines and the entire leisure industry segment.  See the chart below from the Wall Street Journal for Royal Caribbean.  Carnival is down 3.09% this morning.  Norwegian has dropped 3.70% this am.  These drops this morning are much more negative than the overall market. 

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Athens & Greece: Many visuals, details from two visits in a city with great history, culture and architecture.  Now at 44,128 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1101008

 

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From a stock analysis website this morning, they had this headline: High Oil Prices Won’t be Enough to Stop Carnival Corporation Stock" with this sub-headline: "CCL stock is still cheap and could have some upside on travel recovery.

 

Here are some of the review comments that might be of interest:The travel industry still remains in the doldrums more than two years into the pandemic. The initial recovery was delayed due to the Delta and Omicron variants. However, things finally look like they are about to turn a corner.  Unfortunately, the Russia-Ukraine crisis happened which sent commodity prices sky-rocketing. This is the situation Carnival Corporation finds itself in. The stock is still trading at a discount with the prospect of a travel boom. But the uncertainty of high oil prices hangs over CCL stock.  The company experienced lower bookings and higher cancelations due to the Omicron surge early this year. The requirements and availability of pre-travel tests, as well as the positive results stemming from those tests, also caused disruption to the company’s business operations.  Overall the Carnival had an occupancy rate of around 54% in Q1 2022.

 

Here is more background from this report: "Like airlines, Cruise lines are a high fixed-cost business. One of the largest costs for a company like Carnival is Fuel which can be as high as 20% of its operating expenses. A small change in the price of fuel can have a material impact on Carnival’s profits. Therefore the large increase we have been seeing in recent months could easily turn Operating Income from green to red.  The company has not yet imposed a fuel-related cost on its customers. No doubt Carnival’s management is wary of alienating customers as the industry is trying to recover from pandemic lows.  I believe that CCL stock could be a decent investment at these levels. Savings are at an all-time high due to the COVID-19 pandemic. There is a threat of inflation and lower consumer confidence. But after being stuck at home, I think many people would be willing to pay the extra costs."

 

Interesting opinion and speculation?  Agree or disagree?

 

Full story at:

https://investorplace.com/2022/04/ccl-stock-high-oil-prices-wont-be-enough-to-stop-carnival-corporation-stock/

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Lisbon, NWSpain, Bordeaux/Brittany: Live/blog, June 2017 from Portugal to France along scenic Atlantic Coast on the Silver Spirit.  Now at 32,262 views.  Many interesting pictures, details for history, food, culture, etc.:

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2511358

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