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SS/RCCL Finances: Improving, Options, Questions??!!


TLCOhio
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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, frantic36 said:

 

Some of us have built up cash reserves just waiting because we knew with the market overpriced before  things were going to turn. Especially with the uncertainty in the world. But, as rkacruiser said, the market is cyclical and best if you can just ride it.  You do seem to look to at the negative a lot.

I really meant to add a smiley face at end of sentence, but hit the send button too quickly.

 

You've made your point on my negative posts a few times.  Why not follow your own advice and put me on your banished list?    Congratulations on building up your cash reserves......very impressive!

 

👍👍  Terry's writing on this thread.  There, I did my first emoji hit.

 

 

 

Edited by saminina
added positve remark
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13 minutes ago, saminina said:

 

You've made your point on my negative posts a few times.  Why not follow your own advice and put me on your banished list?  

 

Nope, I need to know what misconceptions to correct.🙂

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13 hours ago, frantic36 said:

 

Some of us have built up cash reserves just waiting because we knew with the market overpriced before  things were going to turn. Especially with the uncertainty in the world. But, as rkacruiser said, the market is cyclical and best if you can just ride it.  You do seem to look to at the negative a lot.


Cash reserves?  Doesn’t that all go to Seabourn/Silversea anyway?!  

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Posted (edited)
19 hours ago, Lois R said:

Hi Terry, wishing you Belated Happy Anniversary wishes! 50 years! That is simply awesome😀

 

Appreciate these kind wishes from Lois.  Actually, our official anniversary date is on June 17.  We did the Disney/Florida family celebration in early May hoping to avoid the bigger summer crowds and high humidity in Orlando.  It was still very, very busy at Disney and Universal Studios. And, hot!   But, fun!!  Great family memories.  Keep it coming with the other great comments and follow-ups on these various cruise financial issues.  

 

Friday the 13th was very, very GOOD NEWS for the stockholders of the three major cruise lines.  Really?  Yes!!  See below from the Wall Street Journal.  Is this a long-term trend?  Hard to know as the past week or so has been challenging for most stocks, especially those in the tech fields.  Glad that I am not a stockholder with these firms as the worries and tensions during the past two years have been very difficult to manage and ride.  

 

It looks as if the two top CEO's of Royal Caribbean and Carnival were smart in deciding to move on/retire.  Lots of difficult decisions have been made in the past two years with much more hard choices to be made in the next few years. 

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

From late 2018, see “Holy Lands, Egypt, Jordan, Oman, Dubai, Greece, etc.”, with many visuals, details and ideas for the historic and scenic Middle East. Now at 20,819 views.  Connect at:

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2607054-livenautica-greece-holy-lands-egypt-dubai-terrypix’s/

 

From the Wall Street Journal, the below charts reflect how the stock market valued the three major cruise lines during the past week.  It was four straight negative days, but then Friday, the 13th, it was a big, positive jump back UP!!  At the bottom is the chart for Royal Caribbean since the first of this year.  Lots of rocky, roller-coast movements?:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see these visuals larger/better!)

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Edited by TLCOhio
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1 minute ago, RetiredandTravel said:

RCL was up 666% on Friday the 13th?  😬

 

Cute catch and sharp-eyed follow-up from our travel friend.  Could a fiction writer come up with a better, more interesting script?  What will next week bring?

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

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I was curious as to how the three major cruise companies were doing Q1/22 vs. Q1/19, pre-pandemic.

 

A couple points of interest.

 

Revenues for Royal in Q1/22 were 43% of Q1/19. 35% for Carnival and 37% for Norwegian. Operating cash flows for all three were negative in Q1/22; not surprising.

 

What was somewhat surprising, though, was that net customer deposits increased for all three companies. That means whatever revenues were from FCCs being used were more than exceeded by new deposits. In fact, for Norwegian, the net increase in Q1/22 was 95% of the same amount for Q1/19.  The ratio was 70% for Royal and only 52% for Carnival.

 

The rest of the data was pretty much what you’d expect. Lots of negative operating results.

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9 hours ago, TLCOhio said:

It looks as if the two top CEO's of Royal Caribbean and Carnival were smart in deciding to move on/retire.  Lots of difficult decisions have been made in the past two years with much more hard choices to be made in the next few years. 

 

The gentlemen remain connected with their Companies by being members of the Board of Directors.  How much influence they will have?  But, I would expect that if CCL's former CEO and now Chairman of the Board Arison picks up the phone and expresses his opinion to a current CCL executive, the message would be heard loud and clear.  Does Mr. Fain have such clout?  How would I know?

 

9 hours ago, TLCOhio said:

 Glad that I am not a stockholder with these firms as the worries and tensions during the past two years have been very difficult to manage and ride.  

 

You must not be a contrarian investor.  Consider joining us.  Buy a 100 shares.  Don't worry about the price.  Book a cruise and enjoy the Shareholder Benefit by owning those 100 shares.  

 

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In addition to Fridays rally there were a few positives in the overall market last week.  The US 10 year yield held 3.25% resistance which is the high yield for the last 10-11 years which was touched in 2014 & 2018.  Fed bond buying has manipulated longer treasury yields & credit spreads but staying below 3.25% would be a good indication for longer term inflation, if it doesn't not so much.   The S&P 500 and QQQ also held 38.2 % 50 % Fibonacci (attached) retracement levels of 2815 & 286.  Yields & Stock prices generally moved in opposite directions last week which suggests that the stock market is more concerned with economic slowdown at this point.

 

My interest in cruise stocks is mostly in how secure my down payments are. 

 

 In the interview with the RCL CEO I posted above he said that the annual interest expense had gone up ~ $800MM and because of that they need to get to 90% load factor to be profitable.  This alone shows how important it is that RCL work off the debt it incurred.  In my opinion investing in these stocks is a little like buying a call option, you can make make a lot or you may lose a lot.

 

Cruise line load factors aren't my expertise but I would guess that eliminating the Covid restrictions will make 90% easier to achieve.    We plan to book cruises (SS, Seabourn or Regent) to Australia, South America and the Mediterranean but have no intention of making a deposit until the Covid restrictions are gone.  We are not booking a cruise were we have to take a test prior to the cruise, wear masks, the ship has a quarantine floor or that accepts unvaccinated (& boosted) people.

 

My hope is everyone is successful in their investing and we can start to book trips soon.

 

 

 

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fibonacciretracement.asp

 

 

 

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On 5/15/2022 at 8:20 AM, RetiredandTravel said:

In addition to Fridays rally there were a few positives in the overall market last week.

Cruise line load factors aren't my expertise but I would guess that eliminating the Covid restrictions will make 90% easier to achieve.    We plan to book cruises (SS, Seabourn or Regent) to Australia, South America and the Mediterranean but have no intention of making a deposit until the Covid restrictions are gone.  We are not booking a cruise were we have to take a test prior to the cruise, wear masks, the ship has a quarantine floor or that accepts unvaccinated (& boosted) people.

My hope is everyone is successful in their investing and we can start to book trips soon.

 

Appreciate these great comments and follow-up regarding investing, the stock market and the negative slide facing the three major cruise lines.    

 

From the New York Times this afternoon, they had this top headline: S&P 500 is down for seventh week in a row with these highlights: “The index ended the week with a loss of 3 percent, its seventh straight weekly decline. That’s its longest stretch of losses since 2001.”

 

For the three major cruise lines, you can see below that all three companies today hit their 52-week LOWS today.  There was a slight rally late in the afternoon, but today and this week reflected continued pessimism about the overall economic trends.  Higher interest rates, rising fuel prices, etc., make for a less than positive environment.  Right or wrong?  But at these prices, do cruise stocks have no where to go but up??  How would you like to roll the gambling dice?

 

Full story at:

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/05/20/business/stocks-bear-market#stock-market-inflation

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Summer 2019 Calgary, Jasper/Banff National Parks, Western Canada Rocky Mountaineer rail adventure, Vancouver, sailing up to Alaska on Silver Muse, post-cruise excursion to Denali, etc.  Many visuals and details from our first in these scenic areas!  Live/blog: 

https://boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2682584-live-terryohio-silver-muse-alaska-canadarockies-pix’s/

 

From the Wall Street Journal, the below charts reflect how the stock market valued (or sunk) the three major cruise lines during the past week.  It was a bad, BAD week!!  Sorry to be so blunt.  At the bottom is the chart for Royal Caribbean during the past three months.  Continued rocky, roller-coast, downward movements?:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see these visuals larger/better!)

image.thumb.png.53924d7bfd2f53e4677688a972726d7e.png

 

image.thumb.png.d965d73a6be4ae350dc12a38cc9b8c96.png

 

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image.thumb.png.52d7da497f7058ef28c8c27b82520ff9.png

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47 minutes ago, TLCOhio said:

But at these prices, do cruise stocks have no where to go but up?

image.thumb.png.52d7da497f7058ef28c8c27b82520ff9.png

😅😂🤣 You’re one funny guy, Terry.  IMHO, cruise line stocks are uninvestable until the Fed stops its tightening.

 

With that said, for long-term investors (i.e. >5 yrs.), one could begin to nibble at RCL around $49.45 which would be an approximate 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from its post-pandemic high and pandemic low.

 

Personally, I’d have no interest until it falls another one-third or so from its current level to around $36.15 which would be a 78.6% retracement.

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14 hours ago, Stumblefoot said:

😅😂🤣 You’re one funny guy, Terry.  IMHO, cruise line stocks are uninvestable until the Fed stops its tightening.   With that said, for long-term investors (i.e. >5 yrs.), one could begin to nibble at RCL around $49.45 which would be an approximate 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from its post-pandemic high and pandemic low.  Personally, I’d have no interest until it falls another one-third or so from its current level to around $36.15 which would be a 78.6% retracement.

 

Interesting perspective and follow-up from our friend, Stumblefoot.  Personally, I am not a player in the stock market and do not own any cruise stocks.  The waters are far too "choppy" and uncharted for my risk level/interest at my age and position in life.    

 

From this below-connected financial website late yesterday afternoon, they had this headline: Why Cruise Stocks Keep Going Down with these highlights:Cruise line stocks number among the bigger decliners today.  What's behind today's cruise stock pessimism? From a big picture perspective, financial news websites are full of headlines warning of recession risk, and reporting that the S&P 500 just officially crossed the line into bear market territory -- down 20% from its high point hit on Dec. 27, 2021. That's certainly not helping cruise stocks go up today.  We're also probably seeing the tail end effect of Truist bank cutting its price targets on each of Carnival, Royal Caribbean, and Norwegian Cruise Line stocks yesterday. According to the banker, cruise companies may be enjoying some success in attracting customers with discounted rates and special offers -- but the rising cost of food, fuel, and other inflation-sensitive input costs means that the prices on offer may not be high enough to earn the companies any profit.

 

But wait, here's more background: "And now here's the kicker: Food and fuel aren't the only things getting more expensive for cruise lines. Debt is getting more expensive, too.   In case you missed it, the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates by half a percentage point earlier this month -- its biggest hike in two decades -- and strongly hinted at plans to hike rates at least that much twice more before the year is out. This should concern cruise stock investors because, as I pointed out earlier this week, since the COVID-19 pandemic began two years ago, Carnival has had to load up its balance sheet with $20 billion in new debt, Royal Caribbean with $11 billion, and Norwegian Cruise with $6.5 billion.  The higher interest rates go, the more it's going to cost these companies to service their debt."

 

Full story at:

https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/05/20/why-cruise-stocks-keep-going-down/

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Early 2020 (right before Covid shut-down), many visuals and details from New Zealand/South Pacific in going from Auckland to French Polynesia.  This includes Bora Bora, Fiji, NZ experiences, etc:  Live/blog;

https://boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2735732-live-terryohio-“new”-regatta-south-pacificnz-pix’s/

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Posted (edited)

Hope springs eternal here in the R&T household.  Yesterday the S&P500 and QQQ held the support levels previously mentioned and a chartist might say they could be forming a double bottom.  We would need some price confirmation for more confidence (hard to have these days).  My back of the envelope calculations shows that on an operating earnings and reported earnings basis (using 1Q earnings)   the S&P 500 PE is below the 25 year & 35 year median.  In my opinion this is encouraging although sometimes stock markets go from fair value to cheap to really really cheap.  

 

I don't want to be a wet blanket here but IMO if you "invest" in these stocks you have to understand that these companies could go down a lot more.  I certainly hope they don't but they could.  You are correct Terry debt is getting more expensive (especially high yield debt) and these companies are in a race to pay it off.  I would venture that inflation isn't going stop most SS cruisers from booking another trip.  What RCL has to worry about in its quest to 90% capacity is the couple that busted its tail to feed their kids and send them to college and was planning a "trip of a lifetime" for their anniversary on Royal Caribbean and just delayed it because they are spending $300 a month for gas. 

 

If I were thinking of taking a gamble on RCL stock Stumblefoots levels look interesting to me.

 

Has there ever been any speculation of RCL selling Silversea?  Probably not the best valuation at this point but would SS be an interesting investment for someone who wanted to take it private?

 

 

Edited by RetiredandTravel
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2 hours ago, RetiredandTravel said:

Hope springs eternal here in the R&T household.  Yesterday the S&P500 and QQQ held the support levels previously mentioned and a chartist might say they could be forming a double bottom.  We would need some price confirmation for more confidence (hard to have these days).  My back of the envelope calculations shows that on an operating earnings and reported earnings basis (using 1Q earnings)   the S&P 500 PE is below the 25 year & 35 year median.  In my opinion this is encouraging although sometimes stock markets go from fair value to cheap to really really cheap.  

 

I don't want to be a wet blanket here but IMO if you "invest" in these stocks you have to understand that these companies could go down a lot more.  I certainly hope they don't but they could.  You are correct Terry debt is getting more expensive (especially high yield debt) and these companies are in a race to pay it off.  I would venture that inflation isn't going stop most SS cruisers from booking another trip.  What RCL has to worry about in its quest to 90% capacity is the couple that busted its tail to feed their kids and send them to college and was planning a "trip of a lifetime" for their anniversary on Royal Caribbean and just delayed it because they are spending $300 a month for gas. 

 

If I were thinking of taking a gamble on RCL stock Stumblefoots levels look interesting to me.

 

Has there ever been any speculation of RCL selling Silversea?  Probably not the best valuation at this point but would SS be an interesting investment for someone who wanted to take it private?

 

 

Thank you for your back of the envelope analysis, a potential bright spot. I would  point out that technically we do not have a double bottom this week. Fridays early price action took out previous lows from earlier in the week before the rally back in the the Qs and S&P.  Is it a tradeable bottom?  I used to think I knew, but now I know I have absolutely no idea. 😀  That being said, I've got a little support S&P around 3600 and a little more around 3400. I'll look to put some cash back to work down there. Let's hope I'm wrong and we stabilize here. Otherwise I'll be scrambling with the FOMO crowd at 4200.🤣

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2 hours ago, highplanesdrifters said:

Thank you for your back of the envelope analysis, a potential bright spot. I would  point out that technically we do not have a double bottom this week. Fridays early price action took out previous lows from earlier in the week before the rally back in the the Qs and S&P.  Is it a tradeable bottom?  I used to think I knew, but now I know I have absolutely no idea. 😀  That being said, I've got a little support S&P around 3600 and a little more around 3400. I'll look to put some cash back to work down there. Let's hope I'm wrong and we stabilize here. Otherwise I'll be scrambling with the FOMO crowd at 4200.🤣

 

 

Come on man cut me some slack I went to college in the 70's everything is a little fuzzy.  Actually its ok that the second trough went thru the first, some people actually prefer it.  It would have to go thru the "neckline" to be confirmed.  The bigger problem is the time frame for a longer term indicator. more of a day trader chart.   I don't really trade anymore just long term allocation.  Started the year 50% stock 40% cash if we got in the 3500 range I'd probably take the stock percent up some.  If nothing else to adjust for current market values.  Its amazing how much money you can lose with 40% cash.  Totally agree with no idea.

 

 

 

Quote from attached article, these guys are decent. Opinions vary on the topic of course.  

 

"While exact troughs are preferable, there is some room to maneuver; typically, a trough within 3% of its predecessor is considered valid."

 

https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=chart_analysis:chart_patterns:double_bottom_reversal

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6 hours ago, TLCOhio said:

Carnival has had to load up its balance sheet with $20 billion in new debt, Royal Caribbean with $11 billion, and Norwegian Cruise with $6.5 billion.

 

I am unsure about the reasons for this "new debt" for all three companies, but, I am pretty certain that at least for one of them the "new debt" was taken on to help pay off higher interest debt.

 

22 hours ago, TLCOhio said:

How would you like to roll the gambling dice?

 

Cue Kenny Rogers:  "You have to know when to hold them, when to fold them...."

 

5 hours ago, RetiredandTravel said:

if you "invest" in these stocks you have to understand that these companies could go down a lot more.

 

Absolutely.  Having ridden through the storms of 2008-2009, RCI has far yet to fall before it reaches their low.  CCL, on the other hand, is roughly 50% lower than its low during that time.  NCLH?  No idea.  Never had any investment in them.  

 

As long as I believe in their business model and in their management, I'll hold.  I may be tempted to "nibble" and buy a bit more if the time and price seems right.  That day is weeks, maybe months, away, I think.  

 

Will some continue to choose cruising as a vacation?  I think we all have lived through a recession or two.  If one has the means, if one has the desire, the name of the economic conditions at time has nothing to do with one's recreational or spending decisions.  

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@RetiredandTravelthe 70s were a little fuzzy for me to!  As for our discourse on the double bottom issue...that's what makes a market.  Pattern recognition technical analysis is an art, not a science. I stand by my call that its not a double bottom, see attached chart. There was a proper double bottom on March 14th at 4161. We bounced nicely from that level. We did break the neckline of the head and shoulder pattern last week.  Not a great formation, and a messy breakout so I'm iffy on it. But it does project to the 3400 area.    I  look forward to sharing a few cocktails or the refreshing beverage of your choice aboard some ship in the middle of nowhere while we hash it out. 😀  I love a good market debate.

Screenshot_20220521-152730_Chrome.jpg

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Oooops, I need to correct myself.  There was a group of physicists in the 80s that started an algo fun based on pattern recognition technical analysis.  So it is both an art and a science.

@TLCOhiothanks for a great thread and allowing the hijack.  I'll crawl back under my rock. Which btw was remodeled during Covid so it's rather comphy.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, highplanesdrifters said:

Oooops, I need to correct myself.  There was a group of physicists in the 80s that started an algo fun based on pattern recognition technical analysis.  So it is both an art and a science.

@TLCOhiothanks for a great thread and allowing the hijack.  I'll crawl back under my rock. Which btw was remodeled during Covid so it's rather comphy.

 

 

When margins declined in equity trading & banking Wall St forms turned to sophisticated algos to improve profitability.  Institutional stock trading went from charging 6 cents/share to 4 to 2 to <1, I've been retired a while have no idea where is is now.  This coupled with declining margins on Investment banking deals and the separation of IB and research departments led to significantly less profits so firms turned to algos.   In addition to technical analysis the algos monitored client behavior and other factors.  Equity trading & Sales Trading desks have shrunk considerably over the years replaced by the machines.  In my opinion Mathematics has led to some fantastic and cataclysmic results for IB firms, investors and the overall economy.

 

 

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12 minutes ago, RetiredandTravel said:

 

  Equity trading & Sales Trading desks have shrunk considerably over the years replaced by the machines.  In my opinion Mathematics have led to some fantastic and cataclysmic results for IB firms, investors and the overall economy.

 

 

Perfectly said.

Remember in the 80s when algo funds were called "systematically driven" funds? I was amazed at what these brilliant minds were able to capture with lines of code, fantastic.  Now lines of code trade on single words, cataclysmic? 

Ahhhhhh what fun we had in the 80s and 90s.  But at least now I get to sleep until I wake up. No more middle of the night phone  calls from my Asia desk.  I don't have to set my alarm for the European open.  I have become the passive investor that I used to make fun of.  It's wonderful.

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We're going to get on Terry's bad list

 

Loved the 80's and 90's, my cholesterol peaked at 300.  Were you in NYC?  I don't reveal much personal info on the internet if you prefer not to say I understand.

 

What was cataclysmic was the financial engineering that created Mortgage Backed Security derivates like CMOS which became instrumental in creating the financial crises in 2008/09.  MBS CMO's were created to widen the appeal of MBS and improve margins as passthroughs bid/ask declined.  CMO's started ok with PACs & TAC's but evolved into wildly leveraged securities like the inverse floater.   The first large meltdown of MBS esoteric securities was in 1994 when Greenspan & Co tightened aggressively, the writing was on the wall.  In the late 90's early/mid 2000's firms that specialized in MBS derivates became extremely profitable and continued to leverage their balance sheet.  Cataclysmic may not be a strong enough word for what came next.

 

 

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59 minutes ago, RetiredandTravel said:

We're going to get on Terry's bad list.  Loved the 80's and 90's.  What was cataclysmic was the financial engineering that created Mortgage Backed Security derivates like CMOS which became instrumental in creating the financial crises in 2008/09.  MBS CMO's were created to widen the appeal of MBS and improve margins as passthroughs bid/ask declined.  CMO's started ok with PACs & TAC's but evolved into wildly leveraged securities like the inverse floater.   The first large meltdown of MBS esoteric securities was in 1994 when Greenspan & Co tightened aggressively, the writing was on the wall.  In the late 90's early/mid 2000's firms that specialized in MBS derivates became extremely profitable and continued to leverage their balance sheet.  Cataclysmic may not be a strong enough word for what came next.

 

Sorry (or good news) as Terry does not have a "bad list".  Appreciate these various comments and follow-ups.  It is very challenging to figure out the market and value during these uncertain and very challenging times.  Whether for cruise stocks and/or others, these times are very uncertain.  Agree 100% that those pesky "derivates" were very risky and bad.  It was a huge governmental and financial market failure to allow such "vehicles" to be driving dangerously on the public roads.  

 

From the Wall Street Journal this morning, they had this major  headline: Stock Market Bottom Remains Elusive Despite Deepening Decline" with this sub-headline: " ‘Things are going to keep getting worse before they get better,’ one portfolio manager says.

 

Here are some of their story highlights:U.S. stocks are in the midst of their longest selloff in decades.   Whether they are close to bottoming is anyone’s guess.  Market selloffs have long stumped strategists trying to predict when they were close to done. Some have concluded with bursts of panicked selling. Others, such as the one lasting from 1973 to 1974, ground to an end after days of subdued trading volumes. Many investors and analysts looking back at historic pullbacks believe that the current slump that has put the S&P 500 on the cusp of a bear market still has a way to go. Investors continue to have a hefty chunk of their portfolios in the stock market. Bank of America Corp. said this month that its private clients have an average of 63% of their portfolios dedicated to stocks—far more than after the 2008 financial crisis, when they had just 39% of their portfolios in stocks.

 

Full story at:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/stock-market-bottom-remains-elusive-despite-deepening-decline-11653141699?mod=hp_lead_pos1

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio   

 

Barcelona/Med: June 2011, with stops in Villefranche, ports near Pisa and Rome, Naples, Kotor, Venice and Dubrovnik. Great visuals with key highlights, tips, etc. Live/blog now at 254,877 views.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1426474

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History shows a self fulfilling prophecy in that the market actually

encourages folks to panic and get out.

If everyone sat tight the carnage would be ameliorated

It's a banal but seminal truth… you have lost nothing until you sell

Panic is a financial aphrodisiac it seems.

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