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SS/RCCL Finances: Improving, Options, Questions??!!


TLCOhio
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Here is more background from the financial analysts' briefing by the Norwegian top executives on Monday.  Does this give any good insights and previews for the future?  

 

From this industry publication this morning, they had this headline: Norwegian Cruise Line Raises Onboard Prices and Posts Strong Onboard Revenue Numbers with these highlights:Onboard revenue is seen as a real-time now indicator of how guests are feeling about their financial situation right now, according to Frank Del Rio, president and CEO of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings.  'Onboard revenue generation has continued to be impressive, even as we continue to ramp up occupancy carrying more guests across all ships and cabin classes. In the second quarter, onboard revenue per passenger cruise day was approximately 30 percent higher than during the comparable 2019 period,' he said, on the company's second quarter earnings call.   Mark Kempa, CFO, added that the company had raised prices for 'all of our offerings' onboard the ships.  'We've gotten smarter in the pre-marketing of our products, creating that sense of urgency before the consumer steps onboard,' he said. 'Those consumers also spend more, about 30% or 40% more once they're on board. So, it's a combination of all those. But the numbers are strong. We're seeing a strong consumer today, spending today's dollars. And we feel that bodes well for ourselves and the industry.' 

 

Full story at:

https://www.cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/28015-norwegian-cruise-line-raises-onboard-prices-and-posts-strong-onboard-revenue-numbers.html

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

AFRICA?!!?: Fun, interesting visuals, plus travel details from this early 2016 live/blog. At 53,050 views. Featuring Cape Town, South Africa’s coast, Mozambique, Victoria Falls/Zambia and Botswana's famed Okavango Delta.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2310337

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The three cruise lines are up, UP . . . big-time late this morning.  Royal Caribbean has risen to $41.95.  That a 10.48% jump this morning.  The other two are also rising by double-digit percentages this am.  Good news?

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

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11 hours ago, TLCOhio said:

Onboard revenue is seen as a real-time now indicator of how guests are feeling about their financial situation right now, according to Frank Del Rio, president and CEO of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings.  'Onboard revenue generation has continued to be impressive, even as we continue to ramp up occupancy carrying more guests across all ships and cabin classes. In the second quarter, onboard revenue per passenger cruise day was approximately 30 percent higher than during the comparable 2019 period,' 

 

Very good onboard spending by guests have been reported by all of the companies.  

 

Is there a different business model in the initial creation for the cruise lines?  Lower cruise prices and increased prices for onboard amenities?  

 

Why isn't such thinking not different we are already seeing when we go to the grocery store for some products?  Quality remains the same, but the quantity of the product is less and the price has increased.    

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On 8/8/2022 at 11:28 AM, TLCOhio said:

Sorry to hear about those challenges for our SW Ohio neighbor in being a stockholder with CCL and RCL.

 

With nods to Tim Rice and Andrew Lloyd Weber's Don't Cry For Me Argentina, don't cry for me my Columbus friend.  Even if these companies "sink beneath the waves", there will still be sufficient funds to pay my Ohio Income Tax.  I think I know what I am doing and am realistic as to what the future holds regarding any dividends that I might receive.  I am more optimistic than some as to what the future holds for both of these companies.    

Edited by rkacruiser
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13 hours ago, rkacruiser said:

With nods to Tim Rice and Andrew Lloyd Weber's Don't Cry For Me Argentina, don't cry for me, my Columbus friend.  Even if these companies "sink beneath the waves", there will still be sufficient funds to pay my Ohio Income Tax.  I think I know what I am doing and am realistic as to what the future holds regarding any dividends that I might receive.  I am more optimistic than some as to what the future holds for both of these companies.    

 

Don't worry!!  I will not be crying for our SW Ohio friend.  I am sure you can take care of your own matters and situations.  

 

From the Wall Street Journal this morning, they had Royal Caribbean stock being up, UP, AGAIN!!!   Now at $43.34 or an increase of 3.89% at 10:15 am ET.  The other two major cruise lines were up nearly 5% this morning after major gains yesterday.  Good signs for the future?

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

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I wonder if the equity markets are aware how RCL accounts for the FCCs that are still floating around in their system and whether future revenue will recover as quickly as they estimate relative to current revenue? 

 

The reason I ask is because I just learned that SS will not accept a FCC for use as a deposit on a future voyage unless the value of the FCC exceeds the entire value of the new voyage.  Therefore, if the FCC value is less than the cost of the new voyage, the passenger must pay the deposit in new funds and the FCC is applied to the remaining balance due.  As a result, current revenue on the income statement is definitely higher than it would otherwise be had the FCCs been applied on a FIFO basis instead of LIFO.  

 

In our case, we had to come up with cash today (the day our FCC expires from a 2020 voyage that we had fully paid for in 2018 to receive the 10% EBB promotion offered back in those days) to pay the entire deposit on the new voyage, then the value of our FCC gets applied to the final payment due date in 2025.  So, by the time our FCC is used, SS will have had our money for 7-years.  Pretty amazing.

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36 minutes ago, rkacruiser said:

So, there is no expiration date for the FCC?  

 

The other question is what is 2018 money worth after 7 years. FCC "money" must put a smile on the accountants face at current inflation rates. It's not "a new cruise in the same cabin", it's "you can get a new cruise but at a lower deck. And forget about the package".

 

Also, https://thepointsguy.com/guide/future-cruise-credit-certificate/ FCC seems to have the worst conditions possible.  

 

I believe we have been here before, but I wonder if CCL needs to show how much of the FCC was given out/bought in a year and how much of that was actually redeemed.  And how that shows up in the balance.

 

Casinos at Sea offered me $250 to cruise again. Limited time, limited ships, limited so much that the expected value (cost to CAS) was worth less than the chocolate covered strawberries I got from X. I can't believe that if CAS sends 1000 offers of $250, their accountant really believes that CAS will have to cough up $250,000 until most of the offers weren't used.

 

During Covid, FFC might have been the life vest of cruiselines without much repercussions after Covid.

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1 hour ago, AmazedByCruising said:

I believe we have been here before, but I wonder if CCL needs to show how much of the FCC was given out/bought in a year and how much of that was actually redeemed.  And how that shows up in the balance.

 

Agree.  I am under the impression that there is a "use by" date for many of these on some cruise lines.  If not, bye-bye the credit.  Am I mistaken in my thinking?  

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7 hours ago, rkacruiser said:

 

So, there is no expiration date for the FCC?  

Yes, there is an expiration date as I noted in my post. The expiration date is for a new booking, not when the cruise is actually taken.

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8 hours ago, Stumblefoot said:

Yes, there is an expiration date as I noted in my post. The expiration date is for a new booking, not when the cruise is actually taken.

 

Appreciate these additional comments, background and follow-ups regarding FCC's.  When in March 2020 we needed to scrub our planned and paid in full Galapagos Silversea sailing for early 2021, we are glad we pushed and waited to get our full cash refund.  Got it and were happy not be worrying about the future security of our FCC's.  Agree that the shrinking value of money in the hands of the cruise companies is another tangled situation/topic.    

 

From the Wall Street Journal late yesterday, below are the charts for this past week's stock performance for the three major cruise lines.  Like a "Tale of Two Cities", there were sharp contrasts.  Big drop. Big rise!! Where for the future?  Strange week for the cruise stocks through the eyes of the Wall Street traders?

 

Below are the charts for S&P 500 charts for this past week and looking at the recent trends during the past three months.  Overall, the stock market hit new highs since going back to early May.  But, cruise stocks are still dragging compared to the overall market.  Hard to figure out and wager accordingly?  Or, does someone have the "secret sauce" to predict the future market directions?

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Kotor/Montenegro:  Various visual samples, tips, details, etc., for this scenic, historic location. Over 49,467 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1439193

 

From the Wall Street Journal, below are the charts for the three major cruise lines.  Interesting pattern?  Royal Caribbean stayed very flat and almost unchanged after Wednesday early morning quick rise up.  Why/:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see these visuals larger/better!)

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From the Wall Street Journal, here are their charts showing the overall market trends as reflected by the S&P 500 Index.  First shows trends during the past week.  Second shows stock movements during the past three months.: 

image.thumb.png.d3b0e9927141fdf808063eb7122f362d.png

 

image.thumb.png.92ecff79cd416c2d946ce38dbd1c3df9.png

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7 hours ago, TLCOhio said:

From the Wall Street Journal, below are the charts for the three major cruise lines.  Interesting pattern?  Royal Caribbean stayed very flat and almost unchanged after Wednesday early morning quick rise up.

 

All of them performed with the same pattern.  A change in CDC guidance may have something to do with it.  A 1% drop in the inflation rate may have had an impact.  Not sure when I read it, but, just recently, I read a report that there remains on the sideline a significant amount of money in some people's accounts.  

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On 8/13/2022 at 4:47 PM, rkacruiser said:

All of them performed with the same pattern.  A change in CDC guidance may have something to do with it.  A 1% drop in the inflation rate may have had an impact.  Not sure when I read it, but, just recently, I read a report that there remains on the sideline a significant amount of money in some people's accounts.  

 

Agree strongly that there is lots of real money out there and waiting for the right timing to jump back into the mix with their previous spending and investing patterns.  But, when and how?

 

From Bloomberg and MSN News today, they had this headline: Carnival Cruise Bookings Nearly Double After Covid Curbs Eased with these highlights: “Carnival Corp. shares rose as much as 4.1% after the cruise company’s flagship division reported a surge in bookings following the lifting of some Covid-19 restrictions."

 

At 3:29 pm this afternoon, Royal Caribbean is up nearly 4% to nearly $44 a share.  The other two major cruise stocks were up today by similar percentages.  Is this the start of the longer-term recovery for cruise stocks?

 

Here is more from their story: "Carnival Cruise Line said bookings on Monday were 'nearly double' the level for the same day in 2019 after management eliminated pre-cruise testing requirements.  'Our guests are booking the remaining 2022 inventory, and getting a head start planning for 2023,' Carnival President Christine Duffy said in a statement. 'Mid-August is typically not a busy month for cruise bookings, but it’s clear that pent-up demand for Carnival has not been satisfied and guests are responding very favorably to our updated protocols.' 

 

Full story at:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/travel/news/carnival-cruise-bookings-nearly-double-after-covid-curbs-eased/ar-AA10JqTU

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Dubrovnik!  Visual samples, tips, details, etc., for this super scenic and historic location. Over 48,941 views.    

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1439227

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51 minutes ago, TLCOhio said:

The other two major cruise stocks were up today by similar percentages.

 

With CCL leading the pack regarding averages.  Recently, for all three, charts have been looking bullish.  

 

53 minutes ago, TLCOhio said:

Is this the start of the longer-term recovery for cruise stocks?

 

One can only hope.  Just as we can only hope that inflation has peaked.  At least for some commodities.  

 

55 minutes ago, TLCOhio said:

'Mid-August is typically not a busy month for cruise bookings,

 

Another change partially past Covid:  A new time frame for "Wave Season".  The booking information is good news.  

 

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1 hour ago, TLCOhio said:

 

Agree strongly that there is lots of real money out there and waiting for the right timing to jump back into the mix with their previous spending and investing patterns.  But, when and how?

 

It's already being spent right now on ships isn't it? 

 

On 8/10/2022 at 2:07 PM, TLCOhio said:

In the second quarter, onboard revenue per passenger cruise day was approximately 30 percent higher than during the comparable 2019 period

 

When the ships will sail again at 100% or even more, they will have more income than ever. I remain an optimist 🙂

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23 hours ago, rkacruiser said:

With CCL leading the pack regarding averages.  Recently, for all three, charts have been looking bullish. One can only hope.  Just as we can only hope that inflation has peaked.  At least for some commodities.  

 

Great comments and follow-ups, but I am not sure today reflects a "bullish" outlook for the cruise stocks.  Right or wrong?

 

From the Wall Street Journal late this afternoon, their chart below reflects how negative was the trading today for Royal Caribbean. Down 5%+!!  The other two cruise lines were down near 4.5%.  Rocky???

 

Why?  Here was a key Wall Street Journal headline this afternoon: Fed Officials See Need for Continued Interest-Rate Increases, but Less Certainty Over Destination" with this sub-headline: "Officials at last month’s meeting acknowledged risks from raising rates too little and too much.

 

Here were a couple of their reporting/analysis highlights:Federal Reserve officials agreed at their meeting last month they needed to keep raising interest rates enough to slow the economy and likely would need to hold rates at that level until it was clear inflation was decelerating.  Officials voted to raise their benchmark rate by 0.75 percentage point in July, following an increase of the same size in June. Those were the largest rate increases since 1994. Several officials have indicated since the meeting that they would support lifting rates by at least a half percentage point at their next meeting in September.

 

Full story at:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-officials-see-need-for-continued-interest-rate-increases-but-less-certainty-over-destination-11660760110?mod=hp_lead_pos2

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Athens & Greece: Visuals, details from two visits in a city and nearby with great history, culture and architecture.  Now at 46,489 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1101008

 

From the Wall Street late this afternoon, here is a look at how totally "ROCKY" was the stock market for Royal Caribbean.  Similar for the other two major companies.:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see this visual larger/better!)

image.thumb.png.0ea665346107503c10b9b100f55e27eb.png

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23 hours ago, AmazedByCruising said:

It's already being spent right now on ships isn't it?  When the ships will sail again at 100% or even more, they will have more income than ever. I remain an optimist 🙂

 

Glad that our travel friend from Holland is an optimist!!  You will be ultimately totally correct!!  It is just a matter for "WHEN"??  We are headed towards a recovery and many people (at the higher end) have money.  Many will spend.  But, "details" such as future interest rates will affect this timing.  Maybe?  Reactions?

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

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4 minutes ago, deepcman said:

 

Appreciate this great article, sharing and follow-up from our travel friend in Canada.  

 

It had this summary headline: Why Royal Caribbean and All Other Cruise Stocks Just Crashed with this important bottom-line:  “If debt costs eat up all of cruise companies' profits, is there any reason to buy cruise stocks?”

 

The author was not shy in making his sharp points: "Remember how I warned, back in July, that in light of its continued losses, Carnival had decided to raise more than $1 billion in new cash through a stock offering? Remember how I warned, just two weeks ago, that Royal Caribbean was raising close to $1 billion itself through a debt offering, and using the money to roll over old debt?"

 

Author Rich Smith noted how much higher Royal Caribbean and others will need to pay with these rising interest rates.  This impacts significantly when you consider that RCL has to service its $23.8 billion debt load in future years.  That borrowing and all of those new ships affects the costs for the future of Silversea, etc.  Right or wrong?

 

Full story at:

https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/08/17/why-royal-caribbean-and-cruise-stocks-just-crashed/?source=eptyholnk0000202&utm_source=yahoo-host&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Lisbon, NWSpain, Bordeaux/Brittany: Live/blog, June 2017 from Portugal to France along scenic Atlantic Coast on the Silver Spirit.  Now at 32,483 views.  Many pictures, details for history, food, culture, etc.:

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2511358

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2 hours ago, RetiredandTravel said:

Why cruise lines crashed today?

 

The entire Market was down today.  Why would the cruise lines' stock be any different?  

 

2 hours ago, TLCOhio said:

I am not sure today reflects a "bullish" outlook for the cruise stocks.  Right or wrong?

 

"Bullish" was not my analysis.  I wrote that based on the analysis on a web site that I follow.  

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This morning at  9:43 am EDT, Royal Caribbean was down, down to $39.92.  Wednesday am, the stock started at $44.   More later today for the look of the full week for the three major cruise companies. 

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

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Appreciate these various comments and follow-ups. Yes, the stock market has had its challenges, etc.  Agree with RetiredandTravel that lots of debt can create serious issues in making a recovery work.   

 

From the Wall Street Journal late Friday afternoon, they had this headline: Techs Lead Slide in Stocks as Dow Falls Nearly 300 Points" with this sub-headline: "Stocks closed lower, with all three indexes finishing the week in the red.

 

Below are the charts for the three major cruise lines during this past week.  The last three days were not good.  Am I missing anything with that summary?

 

Full story at:

https://www.wsj.com

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Panama Canal? Early 2017, Fort Lauderdale to San Francisco adventure through Panama Canal.  Our first stops in Colombia, Central America and Mexico, plus added time in the great Golden Gate City. Now at 31,477 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2465580

 

From the Wall Street Journal, below are the charts for the three major cruise lines for the past five trading days. Mostly downward?  What's next?:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see these visuals larger/better!)

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Here is a look at Royal Caribbean since the start of this year, 2022.  Overall, is it fair to say it has been a steady downward trend, despite most ships returning and passengers filling up many of the various sailings?  Should the stock have been moving upward?  Why not?:

image.thumb.png.6edfabbeff72ad271d90f9c1943bc854.png

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Bad day for the stock market today!!  Big overall slide.  But, for the three major cruises lines, their negative slides were twice what happened overall for the S&P500 stocks.   Both Carnival and Norwegian were down 4.8% today.  

 

From the Wall Street Journal late this afternoon, they had this headline: Dow Falls More Than 600 Points on Worries Over Fed, Economy" with this sub-headline: "Investors turn jittery ahead of Fed Chairman Powell’s planned speech in Jackson Hole.

 

What is next??  NBC News polling over the weekend shows that most in the U.S. believe we are now in a recession.  Right or wrong?  How does this affect cruise bookings and future spending? 

 

Full story at:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stocks-markets-dow-update-08-22-2022-11661164955

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

From late 2018, see “Holy Lands, Egypt, Jordan, Oman, Dubai, Greece, etc.”, with many visuals, details and ideas for the historic and scenic Middle East. Now at 21,165 views.  Connect at:

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2607054-livenautica-greece-holy-lands-egypt-dubai-terrypix’s/

 

From the Wall Street Journal later this afternoon, here is their chart showing the downward slide.:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see this visual larger/better!)

image.thumb.png.7f91497ad2f17e5920dde57510b2a8ca.png

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14 minutes ago, TLCOhio said:

 NBC News polling over the weekend shows that most in the U.S. believe we are now in a recession.  Right or wrong?  

 

Remembering that my Ph.D. in Economics is from the prestigious University of Timbucktu, I agree with that poll.  It does seem to be an unusual type of recession so far.  Impact on cruise bookings?  Hasn't seemed to be much so far. 

 

The Market's drop:  Yawn, somewhat.  Percentage wise, we have seen worse.  

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