Jump to content

Our projected coronavirus timeline...


Recommended Posts

I've worked for one of the major Wall Street firms for over 30 years.  Our biotech team put out this projected timeline.  Obviously, no one knows for sure what will happen, but I thought you might find it interesting.

My next cruise isn't until October 2020 (northern Europe), so we'll see if things have improved by then.

EUunzCAWkAI2st1.jpg

Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm also sailing to northern Europe, departing Le Havre on 15 September. Your company's model indicates a nice window of opportunity. I remain, however, very anxious about the viability of my trip, as it's all dependent on the EU, individual countries, and individual ports all being open for business. I have a fall-back plan for May 2021, but I'm really hoping we can go in September.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks.  It's obviously and estimation, but it appears very informational.  Something like this would be great on a state-by-state basis (and intra-state by county) as it appears the highest concentration of cases and deaths were in specific geographic areas and with specific infection attributes of age and/or underlying conditions of hypertension, obesity and diabetes.

 

Also, noting your experience, I am totally amazed at the current stock market.  I cannot fathom (ooops) the current valuation across the broad markets with a 2nd quarter that is going to be a literal stock-demic.

 

Again, thanks.

Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, Formula280SS said:

Also, noting your experience, I am totally amazed at the current stock market.  I cannot fathom (ooops) the current valuation across the broad markets with a 2nd quarter that is going to be a literal stock-demic.

 

Do remember that the stock market is a leading economic indicator.  Also remember that bear markets end in bull markets.

We are currently in a cyclical bear market within a secular bull market.  To explain, and using real estate as an example, real estate has been on a secular (long-term) bull market for decades.  In 2008, the real estate market experienced a cyclical bear market (short-term).  However, that didn't change the long-term secular trends.  And so, with the stock market, it would appear that the secular bull market remains in place.

While it's true that the next few quarters will likely look very bad, the market, acting as a leading economic indicator, is discounting the current bad news with a presumption that things will improve relatively soon.  That's not to say that there won't be plenty of pain in the interim.  If it turns out that this pain is much deeper and/or longer-lasting than presumed, the market may correct accordingly.  But many times there is a multi-month, often roughly 7-9 months, between what is happening now, and what the market is assuming will happen months into the future.

Also, as of this writing, the yield on the 10-year Treasury is around 0.6%, so to some, that may make equities (stocks) seem more attractive on a relative basis.

Disclaimer: The preceding was not a recommendation for or against securities, an offer to buy or sell securities or a solicitation.

Edited by Stockjock
Link to post
Share on other sites

interesting projections ( I hope the pandemic doesn't having that kind of longevity) Based upon the projections widespread vaccination is a year away. The cruiselines may not be able to remain solvent that long and I think widespread vaccination and immunity will be necessary before the industry can even think about getting back to more normal operations.

 

I will remain optimistic and hope we can soon return to our revered lifestyle.

 

Stay Healthy  🙂

Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • Forum Jump
    • Categories
      • Forum Assistance
      • SPECIAL EVENT: Q&A with RiverCruising, the River Cruise Experts
      • Q&A: Cruise Insurance with Steve Dasseos of TripInsuranceStore.com
      • New Cruisers
      • Cruise Lines “A – O”
      • Cruise Lines “P – Z”
      • River Cruising
      • ROLL CALLS
      • Digital Photography & Cruise Technology
      • Special Interest Cruising
      • Cruise Discussion Topics
      • UK Cruising
      • Australia & New Zealand Cruisers
      • North American Homeports
      • Ports of Call
      • Cruise Conversations
×
×
  • Create New...