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SS Future Re-Open Plan: Timing, Testing Needs??!!


TLCOhio
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On 10/25/2020 at 9:50 AM, crusinbanjo said:

all good thoughts Terry, always appreciate your posts and incite.  Personally I am not a buyer of cruise line stocks right now, I believe them to be too speculative for my tolerance.  IMHO, cruising won’t start up seriously until May or June of 2021, maybe even later.  Also I saw a YouTube clip of some of the ships at anchor, they are going to need some serious maintenance before they are ready to resume sailing.  That is the key, when the lines start to spruce up ships, you will know that sailing are around the corner.  Until then....  too risky for me!

 

Great above summary, comments and follow-up from the smart Mr. Banjo.  Agree that that there are many serious challenges and questions before any significant sailing can resume.   

 

From Barron's, the sister publication of the Wall Street Journal this morning, they had this headline: Cruise Stocks Are Getting Crushed Because Covid Cases Are Cresting Again” with these highlights: “Cruise line stocks were falling sharply Monday morning as escalating Covid-19 cases and related restrictions highlight continuing headwinds for the industry.  Carnival Corp. fell 9.6% to $13.89, while Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings slid 9.7% to $16.58 and Royal Caribbean Group was 9.9% lower at $58.10.  The rising case counts are weighing on stocks across the board, leaving the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 1.8% and the S&P 500 of 1.4%.  Cruise company stocks have suffered throughout the pandemic because most sailings have been canceled. Carnival and Norwegian have been hit the hardest, falling 72% and 71% year to date, respectively. Royal Caribbean has dropped 55%.

 

Here is more for this current summary: "The recent spike in cases worldwide—and increasing moves by governments in Europe to curb the spread—emphasize the protracted nature of the crisis and could be spooking investors who had been betting on stocks that could benefit from eased restrictions, such as cruise lines.  While pent-up demand might eventually help the group, cruise restrictions continue to be extended. Even with increased health protocols, some analysts warn that cruises won’t return until 2021. 'We believe that a return to extensive travel (planes, cruise, hotels) is several years away,' Citigroup analyst Shawn Collins wrote.  Absent a vaccine, reminders of how far from normal the world still is are likely to weigh on cruise stocks."

 

Full story at:

https://www.barrons.com/articles/cruise-stocks-get-crushed-because-covid-cases-are-cresting-again-51603725613?adobe_mc=MCMID%3D63471548750076989185250804279237370225|MCORGID%3DCB68E4BA55144CAA0A4C98A5%40AdobeOrg|TS%3D1603725882

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

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By mid-afternoon, things are still pretty negative as to how those in the financial markets are viewing the three major cruises.  And, their futures??!!  

 

From the below-connected Wall Street website, they had this headline: “Carnival, Royal Caribbean, and Norwegian Cruise Lines Have a Lot to Prove This Week".  Here was their sub-head: "Halloween can't come soon enough for the cruise line industry, but will it be another trick or finally a treat?”

 

Here highlights: “This is a big week for the cruise line industry. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC) ban on sailing is set to expire on Saturday night. Will Carnival, Royal Caribbean, and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings finally receive regulatory clearance to get back to the cruising business?  The cruise lines don't currently have any stateside sailings scheduled until the start of December, giving them all of November as a buffer from the order if it does in fact expire. With COVID-19 cases inching higher it wouldn't be a surprise if the CDC extends the deadline. What started originally as a 30-day ban on March 14 has been pushed out three times this year, with the length of the extensions varying along the way. In short, Halloween is going to be trick-or-treat time for the industry.”

 

Here is more from their story: "Cruise lines would love nothing better than to start sailing again, especially in time for the seasonal spike in holiday cruises near the end of the year. Carnival, Royal Caribbean, and Norwegian Cruise Line have scaled back on the number of cruises that are currently scheduled to restart operations in December, and it's just as well. Consumer confidence will take time to win back. The Healthy Sail Panel's stiff guidelines, put out last month, weren't enough to keep the CDC from extending its No Sail Order last time around. The CDC may also want to extend the ban beyond October to see how the presidential election plays out on Nov. 3. It was earlier reported that the CDC wanted to push the ban all the way into early next year, but only extended the No Sail Order through the end of October under pressure from the current administration. The odds are not in the industry's favor to start sailing anytime soon right now, but an extension of the sailing ban isn't a slam dunk. The travel industry keeps inching its way back to normal operations despite the global uptick in COVID-19 cases. Airlines -- where passengers spend a lot more time sitting within six feet of strangers than a typical cruise ship dining or leisure activity -- have started to sell middle seats again. It's just a matter of time before regulators give cruise lines a shot at staying afloat, at least for long enough to see if the new health and safety measures make a difference."

 

Full story at:

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/10/26/carnival-royal-caribbean-and-norwegian-cruise-line/

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

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Silversea has cancelled all remaining 2020 sailings.  I won't be surprised if by the end of November, we see cancellations of the January 2021 sailings.  Here is the revised schedule: 

 

Silver Spirit:

•     SL210104022 - Silver Spirit will set sail on January 4, 2021

 

Silver Muse:

•     SM210105014 - From January 5, 2021, Silver Muse will resume sailing

 

Silver Moon:

•     MO210107016 - Silver Moon will set sail on January 7, 2021

 

Silver Shadow:

•     SS210108010 - Silver Shadow will commence service once again from January 8, 2021

 

Silver Origin:

•     OR210109007 - From January 9, 2021, Silver Origin will resume sailing

 

Silver Explorer:

•     E1210209015 - Guests will cruise on Silver Explorer again from February 9, 2021
 

Silver Cloud:

•     E4210319021 - Silver Cloud will set sail on March 19, 2021
 

Silver Whisper:

•     WH210606014 - Silver Whisper will commence service once again from June 6, 2021
 

Silver Wind:

•     WI210614014 - Silver Wind will welcome guests once more from June 14, 2021

 

Silver Dawn:

•     DA211109010 - Silver Dawn will commence service from November 9, 2021

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Just now, alexandria said:

Silversea has cancelled all remaining 2020 sailings.  I won't be surprised if by the end of November, we see cancellations of the January 2021 sailings.  Here is the revised schedule: 

 

Silver Spirit:

•     SL210104022 - Silver Spirit will set sail on January 4, 2021

 

Silver Muse:

•     SM210105014 - From January 5, 2021, Silver Muse will resume sailing

 

Silver Moon:

•     MO210107016 - Silver Moon will set sail on January 7, 2021

 

Silver Shadow:

•     SS210108010 - Silver Shadow will commence service once again from January 8, 2021

 

Silver Origin:

•     OR210109007 - From January 9, 2021, Silver Origin will resume sailing

 

Silver Explorer:

•     E1210209015 - Guests will cruise on Silver Explorer again from February 9, 2021
 

Silver Cloud:

•     E4210319021 - Silver Cloud will set sail on March 19, 2021
 

Silver Whisper:

•     WH210606014 - Silver Whisper will commence service once again from June 6, 2021
 

Silver Wind:

•     WI210614014 - Silver Wind will welcome guests once more from June 14, 2021

 

Silver Dawn:

•     DA211109010 - Silver Dawn will commence service from November 9, 2021


Wow, just wow!  Can’t say I’m surprised in light of the recent pandemic news but still hard to think back to March and what most thought would be a few weeks or months of delayed cruises and now nine months and maybe longer.   I wasn’t tracking the Dawn entry into service  but not sailing for a year is almost shocking.   

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16 minutes ago, Randyk47 said:


Wow, just wow!  Can’t say I’m surprised in light of the recent pandemic news but still hard to think back to March and what most thought would be a few weeks or months of delayed cruises and now nine months and maybe longer.   I wasn’t tracking the Dawn entry into service  but not sailing for a year is almost shocking.   

Sadly only Wind and Whisper appear to be possible dates for resumption June 2021.

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Back in July and August I cancelled all my cruises through to June of next year - even then I had my doubts about the June one, and my doubts are only increasing, any vaccines notwithstanding.

 

I sincerely hope that SS will be sailing again by then (otherwise I fear for the existence of all the cruise lines) and I suspect that once one is on the ship it might be relatively safe with multiple tests and limited excursions (note relatively) but I worry about the difficulties of flights and crossing multiple international borders, and different and changing restrictions in so many countries  - the getting to the ship is problematic. And getting home.

 

And the BIG worry that the cruise lines are being very coy about (i.e. not telling us) is what happens if you test positive at embarkation? I talked to a travel insurance provider here in Bermuda and they aren't covering Covid risks.

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11 minutes ago, brimary said:

Sadly only Wind and Whisper appear to be possible dates for resumption June 2021.


I’m watching the Wind situation with particular interest.  Goes to the Wind being our first ever Silversea ship nine years ago and our most recent cruise in late January this year.  Over those years over half of our 100+ days have been in the Wind so the ship has a special place in our hearts and minds.   More relevant today is what happens to the Wind potentially in the next few months is a signal of Silversea and RCCL’s  view of the future.   My crystal ball went dark a long time ago so I have no idea but I have this nagging feeling that the Wind conversion may be delayed.  The variation on that notion is that she still might go into dry dock for updates and “Musification” but the ice work may be delayed.   

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It is all so sad....mostly how many cases are rising all over the place. ☹️But now thinking, I will need to make plans

for a land trip for the spring........hoping I can find something......I will go nuts if I have to stay home for all that

time😦

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1 hour ago, Lois R said:

☹️But now thinking, I will need to make plans for a land trip for the spring........hoping I can find something....

Our worry with  land adventures is the safety of the accommodations, restaurants and everything that is needed to survive away from home...Times like these, I tend to go back to my management days in the food industry, while a corporation can set standards those standards are only as effective as those who are charged with enforcing and carry out the procedures..   At this point and time I trust no one but me. So again until there is a cure and or vaccine.. we will stay in place..

@Lois R if you do decide to venture please be safe.....

 

Joseph

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1 hour ago, Randyk47 said:


I’m watching the Wind situation with particular interest.  Goes to the Wind being our first ever Silversea ship nine years ago and our most recent cruise in late January this year.  Over those years over half of our 100+ days have been in the Wind so the ship has a special place in our hearts and minds.   More relevant today is what happens to the Wind potentially in the next few months is a signal of Silversea and RCCL’s  view of the future.   My crystal ball went dark a long time ago so I have no idea but I have this nagging feeling that the Wind conversion may be delayed.  The variation on that notion is that she still might go into dry dock for updates and “Musification” but the ice work may be delayed.   

 

The Wind has a special place in my heart as well.  It was my first SS ship during a cruise in late 90s.

 

My nagging feeling is even more dire than yours.  I fear that the ship may be sold and removed from the fleet.  And I do not see such a move (if it comes to pass) as some broader "signal of Silversea and RCCL’s  view of the future."  I think it may simply be an understandable business decision.  The ship will require real investment to convert it into a Cloud-like excursion ship.  It will benefit from a thorough dry-dock/refit even if it remains a conventional cruise ship.  The excursion market is increasingly crowded and competitive.  SS is adding capacity.  The Wind is a relatively inefficient ship to operate given its limited capacity.  

 

COVID has concentrated the minds of cruise line management, with many ships sadly being sent to be scraped. I would regret the loss of Wind, but I would understand it, and I would not see it as some augur of the future dismantling of Silversea.

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1 hour ago, Lois R said:

It is all so sad....mostly how many cases are rising all over the place. ☹️But now thinking, I will need to make plans for a land trip for the spring........hoping I can find something......I will go nuts if I have to stay home for all that time😦

 

Yes, "realism" is setting in!!  It took Silversea some time to scrub those December, etc., dates.  But, now it is done.  What will be next?  And, WHEN??

 

From the below trade publication, they had this headline: “Why Are Cruises To Nowhere Illegal in the USA?” with these highlights: “A cruise to nowhere by definition is a short itinerary that sails roundtrip from a port of call without making any stops.  Essentially, the ship leaves port and sails in a big circle only to return a day or two later.  This type of cruise was generally most common when a short itinerary was needed to help fill out the schedule of a ship.  Cruises to nowhere were a win/win for the lines, given that they weren’t paying for a ship to sit empty and the amount of revenue generated during the short sailings tended to be fairly high.   After all, on-board spending is known to be higher on sea days than when a vessel is visiting a port and guests are disembarking to spend their money elsewhere. A ship is most profitable when guests are onboard spending money in the casino, the bars and the spa.  Unfortunately, those days are over — at least for now — as cruises to nowhere are illegal in the United States.   Prior to 2016, a number of U.S. cruise lines offered a few one- or two-night sailings without port calls, targeted to first-timers, ocean lovers and gamblers.  They weren’t technically legal then, but officials choose to turn a blind eye to a practice that generated just a tiny fraction of overall cruise industry revenue.  It was a court decision that brought things to a halt.  In 2013, a company called Bimini Superfast, owned by Asian casino giant Genting, began offering gambling-themed cruises to nowhere from PortMiami.  When the company tried to expand its operations to sailings out of Port Everglades, it caught the attention of Customs & Border Protection, which filed and won a lawsuit.   CBP officials told the line that in order to operate cruises to nowhere, they must 'employ persons legally authorized to work in the United States, since such cruises did not touch a foreign port.'   As all major U.S.-based cruise lines employ mostly foreign crew, the decision applied to them as well. As a result, cruises to nowhere were discontinued by companies such as Carnival Cruise Line and Norwegian Cruise Line in 2016.”

 

Full story at:

https://cruiseradio.net/why-are-cruises-to-nowhere-illegal-in-the-usa/

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

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I fully agree with those of you who love The Wind. We first cruised on her 6 years ago from Cape Town to Accra and are (with limited optimism) looking forward to being on her again next September from Tower Bridge to Lisbon.

Whilst it came as no surprise that our Shadow cruise in December has been cancelled we hope, pandemic conditions apart, the The Wind remains part of the fleet.

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2 hours ago, Randyk47 said:


I’m watching the Wind situation with particular interest.  Goes to the Wind being our first ever Silversea ship nine years ago and our most recent cruise in late January this year.  Over those years over half of our 100+ days have been in the Wind so the ship has a special place in our hearts and minds.   More relevant today is what happens to the Wind potentially in the next few months is a signal of Silversea and RCCL’s  view of the future.   My crystal ball went dark a long time ago so I have no idea but I have this nagging feeling that the Wind conversion may be delayed.  The variation on that notion is that she still might go into dry dock for updates and “Musification” but the ice work may be delayed.   

Nice to here from a fellow Wind admirer.Our first SS Cruise on the Wind In 1999 when it was half the SS fleet with the Cloud.Nearly 800 days later with over three quarters on the Wind we were saddened when SS decided to transfer the Wind to the expedition fleet as we have no desire to cruise in snow and icebergs.However there may be a rare ray of sunshine in the midst of the Pandemic if the conversion of the Wind is either delayed or postponed  and comes back as the finest luxury small cruise liner we have always enjoyed.It has also been interesting to see such a large proportion of the wonderful crew on board staying with the Wind out of personal choice.Great Memories to lighten up the current situation.

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We transferred our July 2020 Alaska cruise to 2021 and have been told we can (once the dates come out in November) once more transfer it to July 2022, which we will do. Our 2020 flights were cancelled and refunded, and I won't book any more until I know we will be travelling (all fingers crossed). When I finally go on this, our first ever ocean cruise, I will be so happy! We have done 2 European Christmas Market river cruises previously and like those very much.

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We cannot wait to welcome your clients onboard in the future, and are pleased to extend the following offers: 
 
15%* savings on any new cruise date, when booking before November, 10th 2020. This offer is combinable with any public fare. World Cruise excluded.
Please see the chart below where you can search for similar alternative departures to offer your clients.
 
b)    A Future Cruise Credit (FCC), valued at 110%* of the total booking amount to be used to reserve a cruise within 24 months of the issue date, for all open sailings. 
 
This is what I got, also full refund which we're doing.
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1 hour ago, Stumblefoot said:

Saudi Charters on the Spirit.

 

Agree with the above good "smart guess" by the savvy Stumblefoot as to what sailings that Silversea has done lately.  

 

Earlier this morning, I listened and made detailed notes from the hour-long presentation and Q&A session with Wall Street analysts.  It involved many comments and responses by Royal Caribbean CEO Richard Fain, plus other corporate and company finance officials.  

 

Here are some of the highlight comments from CEO Fain: "It will be a gradual return",    "we will be starting slowly in ramping up", "it will be a ship or two at first", "we will start with a short cruise or two initially" and "with only a few ships, but it will be a start".   

 

Also shared was some background about demand.  They expect, see and hope for a good summer sailing period for 2021, but a lower demand in the spring of 2021 benefiting from and depending on as to how there is a shift in bookings that had been planned from earlier 2020 bookings.  They shared that about half of those cruises being cancelled are doing refunds, the half taking future credits.

 

The initial two questions were all about what will the CDC say and allow when the current no-sail order expires on Oct. 31. Fain was very careful and measured in his comments and speculation.  He noted that many factors will be involved.  He cited a need for a controlled environment where they can create a bubble with 100% screenings of both passengers and staff.   There was mention of the breaking news about AIDA announcing a pause in Germany for sailings there in December.  

 

Much came up about re-start costs and the experiences/learning from the Europe lines who started earlier with their initial sailings there.  Fain believe that the protocols work.  Fain cited  "being thoughtful and learning a lot in doing these cruise start-ups slowly."   Fain cautioned about the "wisdom in doing it slowly" and what has been learned from Europe.  He wants to prove out that the protocols are correct. Fain called this a "sensitive time" and a "complicated challenge."   He views these "trial trips as being important."  As to what might happen if there is a change from the current U.S. administration, Fain would not speculated, but said that he "hopes it is decided by science."  

 

There was a decent amount of discussions as relates to a "dual layer for testing":    Fain described this as "a changing area" and said there is now more testing in a  regular manner.  Fain stressed that these improvements in the speed and accuracy of testing has created a fast-changing situation that makes it hard to predicted how all of that would work and be done in the months ahead for pre-boarding, etc.  Fain noted "no other industry in planning to do 100% testing".  He cited that such testing will "get faster, cheaper in future".

 

These are only a few of my rough notes.  BUT, my bottom line is that CEO Fain knows that this going to take "TIME".  No rush.  No quick flipping of the switch with an instant return back to the way conditions were in early 2020.  

 

Reactions and questions?  Comments and thoughts?  Speculation and guesses??

 

From the CNBC business news network this morning, they had this headline: “Royal Caribbean CEO: Will have trial cruises to test new Covid protocols from their interview.  You can use this video link to see their two and half minute interview with Fain.  His comments summarize many of the key points he shared during the 10-11 am conference call today with the financial firms' representatives.

 

From Yahoo News and the Reuters news wire this morning, they had this headline: “Royal Caribbean posts third straight $1bln loss” with these highlights: “The cruise ship operator on Thursday posted a billion-dollar net loss for the third straight quarter...  And it expects to lose more money this quarter as it anticipates burning through up to $290 million in cash every month.  Royal Caribbean is expecting its costs to rise as it gets ships ready to sail again and be in compliance with new health safety rules.  It expects to start sailing one ship from Singapore at the end of the year. In order to convince customers to book a cruise again, Royal Caribbean has jointly spearheaded an industry effort to put new practices in place including testing, use of face coverings and enhanced sanitation procedures... that has yet to convince the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to lift a no sail order that could be extended this week.”

 

Full stories at:

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/10/29/royal-caribbean-ceo-will-have-trial-cruises-to-test-new-covid-protocols.html

https://news.yahoo.com/royal-caribbean-posts-third-straight-164228697.html

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

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From USA Today and the Milwaukee Journal newspaper early this afternoon, they had this headline: “Carnival's AIDA, Costa cruise lines cancel sailings amid COVID-19 surge in Europe with these highlights: “Carnival Corp.'s AIDA Cruises, the cruise giant's second line to restart operations in Europe, has announced it will once again suspend operations temporarily and cancel cruises for the month of November amid the COVID-19 pandemic that is seeing a surge in Europe, where the German line is based.  "As a result of Germany implementing far-reaching measures to contain the coronavirus pandemic, AIDA Cruises today announced it will temporarily pause its cruises for November, cancelling all voyages planned between Oct. 31 and Nov. 30," AIDA said in a release provided by Roger Frizzell, spokesperson for Carnival Corp.  Since its restart on Oct. 17, no known cases of COVID-19 have emerged among passengers or crew on board, who are tested before embarking. "I don't believe there were any positive tests prior to boarding that resulted in a denied boarding," Frizzell told USA TODAY Thursday.  While AIDA was sailing on seven day itineraries departing from Italy — not Germany — its passengers are primarily coming from Germany, hence the cancellations.”

 

Full story at:

https://www.jsonline.com/story/travel/cruises/2020/10/29/carnival-corp-german-line-aida-cruises-cancels-november-sailings/6069632002/

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

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27 minutes ago, TLCOhio said:

Earlier this morning, I listened and made detailed notes from the hour-long presentation and Q&A session with Wall Street analysts.  It involved many comments and responses by Royal Caribbean CEO Richard Fain, plus other corporate and company finance officials.

@TLCOhio / Terry

As always thank you for your insight!

 

Joseph

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3 hours ago, twangster said:

RCG investor call this morning.   They mentioned that SilverSea has restarted limited cruise operations.  

 

What SS cruises are operating currently? 

SilverSea will have a few cruises this year but that is all. These cruises will be very short most likely and I doubt they will have that many people on board.. I even  doubt that anyone is willing to board their ships at the moment 

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22 minutes ago, Roger88 said:

SilverSea will have a few cruises this year but that is all. These cruises will be very short most likely and I doubt they will have that many people on board.. I even  doubt that anyone is willing to board their ships at the moment 

I will volunteer to be the first!!!

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35 minutes ago, Roger88 said:

SilverSea will have a few cruises this year but that is all. These cruises will be very short most likely and I doubt they will have that many people on board.. I even  doubt that anyone is willing to board their ships at the moment 

 

Thanks for the update.  Interested in hearing how those work out.  

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1 hour ago, Roger88 said:

SilverSea will have a few cruises this year but that is all. These cruises will be very short most likely and I doubt they will have that many people on board.. I even  doubt that anyone is willing to board their ships at the moment 

 

Are you talking about the COVID "shakedown" cruises with only RCCL staff on board to test the protocols?

 

Otherwise, what makes you think that Silversea will have any cruises this year (other than the Saudi charter of the Spirit as mentioned)?? 

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