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Carnival cruise line gradual restart of North American cruises


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4 hours ago, KirkNC said:

Plus a pretty smart guy just put $400 million into NCL

 

Not one guy but a private equity fund with over $200 Billion in assets so I see that as a small gamble.  These funds bet on many entities, the win some, they lose some, and hope to win more than they lose.  If a smart guy worth $500 million had invested $400 million it would say something, investing 0.2 of one percent, well not so much.

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34 minutes ago, bluesea321 said:

 

Not one guy but a private equity fund with over $200 Billion in assets so I see that as a small gamble.  These funds bet on many entities, the win some, they lose some, and hope to win more than they lose.  If a smart guy worth $500 million had invested $400 million it would say something, investing 0.2 of one percent, well not so much.

I was referring to Scott Dahnke, co-CEO of L Catterton, he’s the smart guy.  Don’t think he wants to explain how or why he lost $400 million.

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6 ft in my grocery store means one way arrows on aisle floors so shoppers won't have to go head on . Maybe Carnival ships will have those in the corridors and in the Lido

6 FT means way fewer chaise loungers around the pools. Chair Hogs will multiply

6 ft at muster drills will have passengers spread all around the ship. What was said I can't hear!!

The Crows nest and gym will be converted to isolation wards...just saying

Happy hour is only available after midnight on the Lido aft deck when all the old geezers are in bed. Whoops I guess I will miss that one!!

Canadian government put $700 million into developing a vaccine(that's $425 millionus)

I continue to muse

Bob

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On 5/4/2020 at 1:19 PM, KU1and2 said:

Social distancing will be extremely difficult.  And some people won't wear masks - look at the demonstrators.  Some people want to cruise so badly they are willing to put themselves and others in harms way.

Look at the security guard at the Dollar store in Michigan who was murdered by  woman who refused to wear a mask...  

 

No one can be sure of the social and hygiene practices of the thousand+ of other cruisers on your ship.  You're going to be in very close quarters with them for 7+ days with only basic medical care available.  No effective treatment available, let alone a fully vetted vaccine.   Plus, yes, hurricane season in the Caribbean.  I'm not one willing to take the chance.  If someone else wants to spend the money and roll the dice, they have the free agency to do so.  

As for those who say they will not cruise if they must wear a mask:  That is disrespectful to your fellow humans.  Why would you be so egotistical that you would not want to help protect people in a public health emergency?  The cruise lines are not like your local or state government - you can't go to city hall or the capitol with your guns and "Don't Tread on Me" flags and protest the the government is taking away your freedom.  The cruise lines are publicly traded business which are allowed to impose procedures and practices they want to insure passenger health and safety.  

Edited by slidergirl
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3 hours ago, bouhunter said:

Just another headline by the media to drum up fear and hysteria.  It clearly states this "new strain" is the same one we've been dealing with for quite some time.

 

You should read the article...

 

"The 33-page report was posted Thursday on BioRxiv, a website that researchers use to share their work before it is peer reviewed, an effort to speed up collaborations with scientists working on COVID-19 vaccines or treatments. That research has been largely based on the genetic sequence of earlier strains and might not be effective against the new one."

 

In any case, the disease has clearly mutated since China lock down Wuhan. So, no point blaming the Chinese.

 

 

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15 hours ago, slidergirl said:

Look at the security guard at the Dollar store in Michigan who was murdered by  woman who refused to wear a mask...  

 

No one can be sure of the social and hygiene practices of the thousand+ of other cruisers on your ship.  You're going to be in very close quarters with them for 7+ days with only basic medical care available.  No effective treatment available, let alone a fully vetted vaccine.   Plus, yes, hurricane season in the Caribbean.  I'm not one willing to take the chance.  If someone else wants to spend the money and roll the dice, they have the free agency to do so.  

As for those who say they will not cruise if they must wear a mask:  That is disrespectful to your fellow humans.  Why would you be so egotistical that you would not want to help protect people in a public health emergency?  The cruise lines are not like your local or state government - you can't go to city hall or the capitol with your guns and "Don't Tread on Me" flags and protest the the government is taking away your freedom.  The cruise lines are publicly traded business which are allowed to impose procedures and practices they want to insure passenger health and safety.  

There is nothing disrespectful if we decline to cruise if masks are required.  It would be disrespectful to cruise and not wear a mask if required by the ship.  Staying at home does not jeopardize anyone on a cruise.

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20 minutes ago, Crazy For Cats said:

There is nothing disrespectful if we decline to cruise if masks are required.  It would be disrespectful to cruise and not wear a mask if required by the ship.  Staying at home does not jeopardize anyone on a cruise.

I can foresee masks for the muster drill, but how do you eat or drink or swim with a mask on?

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13 minutes ago, ontheweb said:

I can foresee masks for the muster drill, but how do you eat or drink or swim with a mask on?

Masks for muster drill only would not be a non starter for me but would be rendered useless as soon as everyone took off masks for other activities.  Certainly can not wear one while drinking, eating or swimming.

There are side effects to a person wearing a mask for long hours and that would be my main reason for not cruising if mandatory for the entire cruise.

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We would not consider a cruise at this point in time nor would we even consider travelling to Florida  to board a cruise.  Or for any other reason.    November or early in 2021.

Edited by iancal
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So, Carnival intends to sail in August from Texas and Florida?

 

Let's do the numbers. How dangerous is the disease?

 

From New York state's website...

 

https://covid19tracker.health.ny.gov/views/NYS-COVID19-Tracker/NYSDOHCOVID-19Tracker-Map?%3Aembed=yes&%3Atoolbar=no&%3Atabs=n

 

NY has done a million tests for a population of 20 million. 32% of the tests were positive. How many people have really been infected, as the number of tests have been far fewer per capita (and per positive) than in other countries?

 

Governor Cuomo cites an antibody test that claims 13.9% of state residents have been infected in the past.

 

https://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/news/2020/04/23/governor-cuomo-daily-coronavirus-update-with-first-antibody-test-results

 

Let's assume that this is correct and 3 million have been infected. Compared to the official fatality count of 20k, the death rate is 0.67% of the infected.

 

By comparison, it has been estimated that the common flu kill 0.1% (one out of a thousand) of the infected adults. For the 2018/19 season, CDC estimated 35 million symptomatic illnesses and 34k deaths.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

 

 

Therefore, covid19 has the potential to infect more of the population and kill 6.7x more of the infected. Transpose those numbers to your cruise ship.

 

Should the cruise ship be full of young people, then the infection rate would be high (party time) and the death rate low. The reverse for the typical cruise demographics.

 

The picture below has been snipped from a Korean CDC pdf. The fatality rate for those 80+ in age is 24%. For those in the 70s, death rate of 10% of the infected.

 

Perhaps, that's why Carnival is launching the Carnival brand first, before the brands with older demographics. So Happy Cruisers, which demographic group are you?

 

KOrea COVID19 demog April20 2020.JPG

Edited by HappyInVan
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18 hours ago, KirkNC said:

I was referring to Scott Dahnke, co-CEO of L Catterton, he’s the smart guy.  Don’t think he wants to explain how or why he lost $400 million.

Smart guy indeed  Look deeper into the article on his investment and note that he does not give NCL the $400 million until they get at least an additional $1 billion from other investors.

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Bottom line....NCL is looking everywhere for money and willing to pay large interest rates and agree to restrictive terms to get it.

 

If their market does not rebound quickly once they are allowed to operate, this financing will not save them, IMO.

 

They need a lot of live bodies on board paying high prices to cruise...and they need them as soon as possible.

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1 hour ago, HappyInVan said:

So, Carnival intends to sail in August from Texas and Florida?

 

Let's do the numbers. How dangerous is the disease?

 

From New York state's website...

 

https://covid19tracker.health.ny.gov/views/NYS-COVID19-Tracker/NYSDOHCOVID-19Tracker-Map?%3Aembed=yes&%3Atoolbar=no&%3Atabs=n

 

NY has done a million tests for a population of 20 million. 32% of the tests were positive. How many people have really been infected, as the number of tests have been far fewer per capita (and per positive) than in other countries?

 

Governor Cuomo cites an antibody test that claims 13.9% of state residents have been infected in the past.

 

https://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/news/2020/04/23/governor-cuomo-daily-coronavirus-update-with-first-antibody-test-results

 

Let's assume that this is correct and 3 million have been infected. Compared to the official fatality count of 20k, the death rate is 0.67% of the infected.

 

By comparison, it has been estimated that the common flu kill 0.1% (one out of a thousand) of the infected adults. For the 2018/19 season, CDC estimated 35 million symptomatic illnesses and 34k deaths.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

 

 

Therefore, covid19 has the potential to infect more of the population and kill 6.7x more of the infected. Transpose those numbers to your cruise ship.

 

Should the cruise ship be full of young people, then the infection rate would be high (party time) and the death rate low. The reverse for the typical cruise demographics.

 

The picture below has been snipped from a Korean CDC pdf. The fatality rate for those 80+ in age is 24%. For those in the 70s, death rate of 10% of the infected.

 

Perhaps, that's why Carnival is launching the Carnival brand first, before the brands with older demographics. So Happy Cruisers, which demographic group are you?

 

KOrea COVID19 demog April20 2020.JPG

 The results Cuomo was talking about was the Stanford study which has now been debunked by Columbia. Here's the link scroll down to  the  summary. Great post and scary at the same time. Thanks.

https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/04/19/fatal-flaws-in-stanford-study-of-coronavirus-prevalence/

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39 minutes ago, DFD1 said:

Bottom line....NCL is looking everywhere for money and willing to pay large interest rates and agree to restrictive terms to get it.

 

If their market does not rebound quickly once they are allowed to operate, this financing will not save them, IMO.

 

They need a lot of live bodies on board paying high prices to cruise...and they need them as soon as possible.

NCL secured another 2.4B today so they have cash for 12 months of no sail

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6 hours ago, Crazy For Cats said:

There is nothing disrespectful if we decline to cruise if masks are required.  It would be disrespectful to cruise and not wear a mask if required by the ship.  Staying at home does not jeopardize anyone on a cruise.

What I meant was it would be disrespectful if you DID go on a cruise and attempted to not wear the required mask.  Sorry if I wrote it down incorrectly.  Just like right now, if a store even "requests" you wear a mask, you are disrespecting the owners, employees, and other customers.  It isn't a matter of protecting others from you because you think you are negative - it's a matter of protecting you from others who believe they are negative or possess some super power to be asymptomatic and not spread the virus.  

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5 hours ago, ontheweb said:

I can foresee masks for the muster drill, but how do you eat or drink or swim with a mask on?

Some people possess the common sense that you would pull down your mask when you ate or drank.  It's what people are doing now on land - why would it be different on a cruise?   Other than giving you a weird tan *it would look more like a tan you get at a ski resort* - why would wearing a mask during a cruise be so hard?

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48 minutes ago, slidergirl said:

why would wearing a mask during a cruise be so hard?

Its not hard at all in fact it will make it a dream vacation as long as I can color coordinate the mask with my robe for when I go to the buffet.

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3 hours ago, slidergirl said:

Some people possess the common sense that you would pull down your mask when you ate or drank.  It's what people are doing now on land - why would it be different on a cruise?   Other than giving you a weird tan *it would look more like a tan you get at a ski resort* - why would wearing a mask during a cruise be so hard?

During a cruise one either eats in a crowded dining room or a buffet. At home I eat just with DW. Restaurants in my state are not allowed to have you eat in, only take out. That's why it is different, just common sense.

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All the American and Canadian workers are still stuck onboard, I’m not sure about the other nationalities. How about they take care of the workers/entertainers first before they start planning new cruises? These workers have served, cleaned, entertained us, et al, they deserve our support. Cruise line should get them home to their families first! 

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On 5/5/2020 at 4:49 PM, bobpell said:

6 ft in my grocery store means one way arrows on aisle floors so shoppers won't have to go head on . Maybe Carnival ships will have those in the corridors and in the Lido

6 FT means way fewer chaise loungers around the pools. Chair Hogs will multiply

6 ft at muster drills will have passengers spread all around the ship. What was said I can't hear!!

The Crows nest and gym will be converted to isolation wards...just saying

Happy hour is only available after midnight on the Lido aft deck when all the old geezers are in bed. Whoops I guess I will miss that one!!

Canadian government put $700 million into developing a vaccine(that's $425 millionus)

I continue to muse

Bob

Maybe having a lot of activities, including happy hour after midnight would be a good idea.  I'm a night owl so count me in.

 

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17 hours ago, slidergirl said:

Some people possess the common sense that you would pull down your mask when you ate or drank.  It's what people are doing now on land - why would it be different on a cruise?   Other than giving you a weird tan *it would look more like a tan you get at a ski resort* - why would wearing a mask during a cruise be so hard?

 

I think it is the idea of having to wear one's mask 100% of the time that one is out of one's cabin that is hard. I have difficulty wearing one for the hour or so needed to grocery shop, let alone wearing it for hours on end (without cheating and pulling it up or down, which would defeat the purpose). 

 

I would do it if there were a huge payoff/goal to be achieved (e.g., my bucket list destination of Leptis Magna, lol). But just in order to cruise "somewhere" -- no, not for me. Too unpleasant.

 

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10 hours ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

I think it is the idea of having to wear one's mask 100% of the time that one is out of one's cabin that is hard. I have difficulty wearing one for the hour or so needed to grocery shop, let alone wearing it for hours on end (without cheating and pulling it up or down, which would defeat the purpose). 

 

I would do it if there were a huge payoff/goal to be achieved (e.g., my bucket list destination of Leptis Magna, lol). But just in order to cruise "somewhere" -- no, not for me. Too unpleasant.

 

I did 3 hours today in my mask.  Not a biggie and I'm one who gets panic attacks with claustrophobia usually with I have to have something on my face.  A neighbor who is an aesthetician gave me 2 of her lightweight "medical" masks since she can't work yet ( a nice gesture).   So, I figure I could so a couple of stints in a mask per day.  Think about the health care workers right now - they don't get out of that mask, but they still eat and drink.  The amount of time you'd have it down isn't that much AND if you are properly distancing, it would be OK. Just don't have it off all of dinner.  

 

No way I'd even do a cruise to "somewhere", anyway, for the next 2 years, so it's moot to me.     But, if I someone did one of those funding websites for me or I found a Sugar Daddy and was paying my way on a Med cruise on a mega yacht that ended with a trip to the Teatro Del Silencio, I'd consider it...

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