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"Tips for Travelers" Cautionary Video re: Booking 2021 Cruises


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The information provided in this video is very good with one exception - The doctor's note for travel fitness for those 70 and older.  That was scrapped in early April as I recall.

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I disagree on one major segment of Gary's video - pricing. The MASSIVE number of future cruise credits due to passengers are just now starting to be redeemed, with MILLIONS more on the way. Most have to be used on sailings no later than end of 2021. Given the business that was already on the books, plus all the FCC about to be redeemed I see 2021 pricing spiking up SHARPLY and staying high. I could be wrong, but I think last minute bargains for next year will be few and far between. 

Edited by AtlantaCruiser72
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Cruise fares are going to be very high.  They have to be.

 

It costs cruise lines  X numbers of dollars monthly to park a ship with a skeleton crew.

 

Running cruises costs them several time X dollars monthly.  Running cruises under any social distancing of passengers, so fewer of them, plus increased operational costs at the very least for constant cleaning and sanitizing, will be significantly more expensive per passenger. They're don't have to turn a profit on every cruiseto be better off, but they have to generate enough cash so that the average net loss per cruise is less than the net loss to park a ship with a skeleton crew.

 

A large percentage of passengers will be using cruise credits which means even fewer passengers paying actual cash money. Fewer passengers overall, a significant percentage of them using credits for all or part of their fare, means cash paying passengers will have to pay big numbers for any of this to work.

 

 

 

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Saw this thread and thought I would check the pricing for our cruise booked for Feb 2022.  On April 18, 2020 I paid $9988 for my cabin total.  I just checked the cabin next to me same cabin class. Today May 4, 2020 price is $13,118 total!  That is a jump in price of $1500 pp for a cruise almost two years away.  I will keep my fingers crossed that we are able to go and celebrate our 50th anniversary!!!!

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We will be cash paying customers.  This is very simple for us.  If we feel that cruise prices are too high and no longer represent good leisure value for us we will simply look at other travel alternatives.  AI's, resorts, independent travel, tours...whatever.  No different that any other non essential product in the marketplace.

 

There seems to be a sentiment that cruising is the only game in town. It certainly is not for many people.  Just watch family cruising and other segments dry up if the prices are no longer competitive.   Ask around.  The only people who seem to be talking about cruises are those on this board and/or those with FCC's.  Just ask a TA, a relative, a friend, or a co-worker.

 

 

Edited by iancal
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What’s interesting to me is that we just received a 25% increase on the cost of our yearly  condo rental.   So it’s just not Cruise’s that are going up as people try to make up for losses from Covid.  But the other part of the equation seems to be missing,  will customers have the funds after losing income this year due to lack of work or investment losses?  Will they even want to travel?  So it will be interesting how supply and demand play out!

Edited by bennybear
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8 hours ago, iancal said:

We will be cash paying customers.  This is very simple for us.  If we feel that cruise prices are too high and no longer represent good leisure value for us we will simply look at other travel alternatives.  AI's, resorts, independent travel, tours...whatever.  No different that any other non essential product in the marketplace.

 

There seems to be a sentiment that cruising is the only game in town. It certainly is not for many people.  Just watch family cruising and other segments dry up if the prices are no longer competitive.   Ask around.  The only people who seem to be talking about cruises are those on this board and/or those with FCC's.  Just ask a TA, a relative, a friend, or a co-worker.

 

 

I agree up to a point.  Cruises are the only non-independent travel many people book.   We love the convenience of transport, that is not matched by any other mode.   Other group travel is stationary or regimented, cruising gets you there and sets you free.  We and others likeminded folks will likely leave any kind of organized travel.  

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18 hours ago, bennybear said:

What’s interesting to me is that we just received a 25% increase on the cost of our yearly  condo rental.   So it’s just not Cruise’s that are going up as people try to make up for losses from Covid.  But the other part of the equation seems to be missing,  will customers have the funds after losing income this year due to lack of work or investment losses?  Will they even want to travel?  So it will be interesting how supply and demand play out!

I was talking to my sister last night.  She owns a very productive travel agency, very successful company.  Her conclusion - for at least the next 5  years travel will be for the wealthy.

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3 hours ago, Mary229 said:

I was talking to my sister last night.  She owns a very productive travel agency, very successful company.  Her conclusion - for at least the next 5  years travel will be for the wealthy.

That is interesting.   

 

Greece has been incredibly successful in their covid fight. They had to be because they did not have the health care system to handle it plus they have an aging population.  They started early.

 

One of their Gov't ministers has been musing that they may open the country up in July to wealthy tourists.  They believe these people will pay the going rate in order to maintain the requisite distance between each other.

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/greece-reopening-for-high-end-tourists-by-july-2020-5

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On 5/5/2020 at 9:29 AM, iancal said:

We will be cash paying customers.  This is very simple for us.  If we feel that cruise prices are too high and no longer represent good leisure value for us we will simply look at other travel alternatives.  AI's, resorts, independent travel, tours...whatever.  No different that any other non essential product in the marketplace.


For those who can afford the initial purchase and fuel (with gas at record lows recently) RV travel is another travel alternative that had explosive growth and retiree appeal in recent years with a great variety of upscale, comfortable, more nimble versions of Uncle Ernie’s monster trailer. There’s the element of controlling cleanliness and food, less need to interact with strangers, the appeal of sleeping in your own bed every night. Almost unlimited attractive destinations and activities once things loosen up a bit -  National Parks, Canadian Rockies, Florida Keys, Maine & Canadian Maritime Provinces, Alaska, Oregon Coast, as well as pursuing all kinds of special interests and pursuits. Bird watching, fishing, kayaking, lighthouse-finding, exploring Ancestral Puebloan Ruins, Albuquerque Balloon Fiesta, tracing the route of Lewis & Clark, on & on.

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Ultimately it comes down to whatever your personal risk tolerance is.  I personally don't believe things will be as dire as he presents in his video, but that's just me.  We certainly can't take for granted that there will be no problems (extreme weather notwithstanding).  You, and only you can evaluate what risk you are willing to tolerate.

 

We're looking hard at some HAL cruises in March of 2021 and I feel pretty good that things will be more-or-less back to normal by then.  

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