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Substantial Doubt of 'Going Concern'


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2 hours ago, tallnthensome said:

Maybe NCL will charge us to enter this area of the site  like they do for Vibe passes. God knows they could use the money. 

I nearly spat me tea out with laughter reading this. This is a cup of English tea which is not included in the drinks package 

 

Your comment about NCL is so true how to lose customers and rip them off. Look at their earlier filings" we have more people booked at a higher price" They care nothing for guest loyalty - the crew do the management do not. I am so pleased Andy Stuart is out of the company he deserves none of this. He built the most amazing brand for Del Rio to ruin!!!

 

I have said it many times AS is probably the best marketer I have met and the nicest. He must be so upset about this. 

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2 hours ago, seaman11 said:

no not the plan or intentional. , but it does in a way serve as reaching out to more possible investors that may be interested in doing so., NCL isnt calling everyone for money, so this does in a way bring attention that they are possibly looking for investors. 

I can assure you any one out there has been called - That's  What GS does for a living. The entire market knows - This is an industry along with my main job I am very close. There is no attention needed - In medical terms there is no other words than they are in critical care on life support. They SEC filing is a serious warning as is the fact they are in trouble - Caveat Emptor 

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2 hours ago, GA Dave said:

For those who say NCL is too big to fail:

Pan Am World Airways

Trans World Airlines

Eastern Air Lines

Braniff 

National Airlines

Continental Airlines

People Express Airlines

 

All of these were multi-billion dollar transportation companies that went bankrupt and disappeared.  They were either liquidated, or their assets were bought by a different company.

In business, never say never.

Many posters on these boards weren't alive back then. My dad flew for United, an uncle with Eastern, and neighbors with TWA and PanAm.  I remember all on your list but People Express. Must've been a commuter airline. Where did they fly out of?

 

I bought Carnival stock after the Concordia sank. I should've waited. lol I think NCL will dig themselves out of this. There are way too many loyal cruisers just waiting to board and have a fun vacation. If only the restrictions would lift...safely.

 

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1 minute ago, fyree39 said:

Many posters on these boards weren't alive back then. My dad flew for United, an uncle with Eastern, and neighbors with TWA and PanAm.  I remember all on your list but People Express. Must've been a commuter airline. Where did they fly out of?

 

I bought Carnival stock after the Concordia sank. I should've waited. lol I think NCL will dig themselves out of this. There are way too many loyal cruisers just waiting to board and have a fun vacation. If only the restrictions would lift...safely.

 

People Express was the first “no frills” discount airline that formed right after Congress de-regulated the airline industry. They were based out of Newark, NJ.  They basically invented the model that Southwest actually made successful.  They were the first to charge for baggage and they even charged for soda in the cabin.  It went bust in 1986 and the assets were bought out by Continental Airlines.

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11 minutes ago, seaman11 said:

listen all . lot of speculating here .  these big companies always seem to drum up some money . i think they will get some investors and be ok . provided sailing can get going by aug /sept . 

Sorry, but I politely and strongly disagree.

You are letting your love of NCL/cruising color your approach to corporate finance.  Having watched this world for many years, big companies are not "always" trying to drum up money.  Most used debt as a necessary instrument, but not like it is a source of revenue.  Especially at the level that any infusion they may dig up (at least 3-5x market).  This is an unusual situation. And those who have $$$ tied up in their coffers ignore it and think, "hey, everything is gonna be just fine!!" then caveat emptor.

 

 

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4 hours ago, NightOne said:

 

 I would be willing to sell mine for $100 a piece ($25 each loss for me) but the question is where can I sell them easiest? And I want to sell all 4 at once so $400.....

 But who, in their right mind, would buy them right now? 😉

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35 minutes ago, seaman11 said:

 provided sailing can get going by aug /sept . 

 

And that may be the big problem. 

 

They are want $$$$ invested for a product/service that masses don’t want and can't  be provided for probably months at the earliest.

Edited by billyu
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listen all . lot of speculating here .  these big companies always seem to drum up some money . i think they will get some investors and be ok . provided sailing can get going by aug /sept . 


Enron found a way to drum up money.
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3 hours ago, SeaWatcher65 said:

Just to be clear.  I use Chase Sapphire for the trip insurance (they cover insolvency of the trip provider) but I get another policy like Travel Guard or AIG just for medical expenses beyond what my employer sponsored plan would cover er. 

 

Better check your card benefits; Under "what's not covered:"

 

Financial insolvency of the Cardholder’s travel agency, tour operator, or travel supplier

 

https://www.chase.com/card-benefits/sapphirereserve/travel

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42 minutes ago, seaman11 said:

.....i think they will get some investors and be ok . provided sailing can get going by aug /sept . 

 

I cannot see sailing going again by aug/sep 2021......😉

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18 minutes ago, GettotheSun said:

Just sayin'

 

IMHO, got extra money to spare ... why not give that to the country's food bank instead as a good will charity to help fellow Americans.  Long lines of cars lined up, waiting for hours to reach the front of the distribution point to put food on the table.  Or, you can fill up quite a few gas tanks - pretty sure some of them are running half empty,  don't see retail gasoline prices dropping like flies.  

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3 hours ago, adamnoone said:

I just got off the phone with Citi, I opened a dispute. They agreed I have waited long enough for a refund (requested refund as soon as the form was available 3-23) and posted a conditional credit. Who know whether Ill win it or not, but figured with todays headlines I wanted to get a dispute on the books just in case.

 

I opened a credit card dispute 4/25/2020 after being given the runaround by NCL.  Explained to my bank dispute representative I wasn’t informed until 3/13/2020 that my 4/05/2020 cruise was suspended.  I made a $1000 down payment (plus used 2 CNs coupons) 8/2019 and made final payment 12/2019.  I received a message my bank is researching my claims and will provide a response within 30 days.

 

 It’s my understanding the dispute time limits 120 calendar days clock changes based on the date that the cardholder was first made aware that the service would not be provided not to exceed 540 calendar days from the transaction processing date...I became aware of suspended cruise on 3/13/2020 so I should be able to dispute such charges.

 I have not received a temporary credit maybe because I always pay off monthly credit card balances in full...I hope paying off my credit card in full doesn’t hinder my chances of getting a full refund chargeback!!!

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2 minutes ago, ECCruise said:

Sorry, but I politely and strongly disagree.

You are letting your love of NCL/cruising color your approach to corporate finance.  Having watched this world for many years, big companies are not "always" trying to drum up money.  Most used debt as a necessary instrument, but not like it is a source of revenue.  Especially at the level that any infusion they may dig up (at least 3-5x market).  This is an unusual situation. And those who have $$$ tied up in their coffers ignore it and think, "hey, everything is gonna be just fine!!" then caveat emptor.

 

 

Of course its always possible they go under . but i think they will get the capital they need to survive this . 

 

 

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2 hours ago, SeaWatcher65 said:

Good questions. The chase web site has benefits information.  And I attached it here too.  Never had to use the chase benefits, but....it says it covers insolvency and your losses (not just what you paid using the Sapphire card). If NCL files bankruptcy to reorganize (Bermuda law seem similar to US law), I would think NCL would decide to honor the cruise certificates and not make future customers angry.  But who knows?

Chase Card Benefits.pdfUnavailable

Thanks. Your link appears to be for CS PREFFERRED, which appears to cover insolvency.  My earlier link appears to be for CS RESERVE, which appears to NOT cover insolvency. It appears all CS cards are not created equal.

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25 minutes ago, billyu said:

 

And that may be the big problem. 

 

They are want $$$$ invested for a product/service that masses don’t want and can't  be provided for probably months at the earliest.

i disagree masses dont want . many are not understanding that a good amount of ppl are on the packed beaches right now as we speak , nevermind 90 days from now . there is still a need /want for cruises .  its just a matter of when they get going , i dont see an issue with them filling them up by august. 

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5 minutes ago, seaman11 said:

i disagree masses dont want . many are not understanding that a good amount of ppl are on the packed beaches right now as we speak , nevermind 90 days from now . there is still a need /want for cruises .  its just a matter of when they get going , i dont see an issue with them filling them up by august. 

Packed beaches for a few hours after lockdown and the ability to go home immediately after is a bit less risky and less expensive, Seaman. The beach is free. Not quite the same thing. What ships are there to fill up and where are they going to go? You have one big set of rose colored glasses, that’s for sure . 

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Here's NCLH's list of some of the risks it is facing (there will be no quiz).

 

  • COVID-19 on our financial condition and operations, which adversely affects our ability to obtain acceptable financing in an amount equal to the resulting reduction in cash from operations, and the current, and uncertain future, other impacts of the COVID-19 outbreak, including its effect on the ability or desire of people to travel (including on cruises), which are expected to continue to adversely impact our results, operations, outlook, plans, goals, growth, reputation, cash flows, liquidity, demand for voyages and share price;
  • our ability to develop strategies to enhance our health and safety protocols to adapt to the current pandemic environment’s unique challenges once operations resume and to otherwise safely resume our operations when conditions allow; 
  • coordination and cooperation with the CDC, the federal government and global public health authorities to take precautions to protect the health, safety and security of guests, crew and the communities visited and the implementation of any such precautions;
  • the accuracy of any appraisals of our assets as a result of the impact of COVID-19 or otherwise;
  • the ability to obtain deferrals on our debt payments;
  • our success in reducing operating expenses and capital expenditures and the impact of any such reductions;
  • our guests’ election to take cash refunds in lieu of future cruise credits or the continuation of any trends relating to such election;
  • trends in, or changes to, future bookings and our ability to take future reservations and receive deposits related thereto;
  • our ability to work with lenders and others or otherwise pursue options to defer or refinance our existing debt profile, near-term debt amortization, newbuild related payments and other obligations and to work with credit card processors to satisfy current or potential future demands for collateral on cash advanced from customers relating to future cruises;
  • adverse events impacting the security of travel, such as terrorist acts, armed conflict and threats thereof, acts of piracy, and other international events;
  • adverse incidents involving cruise ships;
  • adverse general economic and related factors, such as fluctuating or increasing levels of unemployment, underemployment and the volatility of fuel prices, declines in the securities and real estate markets, and perceptions of these conditions that decrease the level of disposable income of consumers or consumer confidence;
  • the spread of epidemics, pandemics and viral outbreaks;
  • our anticipated need for additional financing, which may not be available on favorable terms, or at all, and may be dilutive to existing shareholders;
  • our ability to raise sufficient capital and/or take other actions to improve our liquidity position or otherwise meet our liquidity requirements that are sufficient to eliminate the substantial doubt about our ability to continue as a going concern;
  • an impairment of our trademarks, trade names or goodwill, including in connection with the preparation of our financial statements as of March 31, 2020;
  • breaches in data security or other disturbances to our information technology and other networks or our actual or perceived failure to comply with requirements regarding data privacy and protection;
  • changes in fuel prices and the type of fuel we are permitted to use and/or other cruise operating costs;
  • mechanical malfunctions and repairs, delays in our shipbuilding program, maintenance and refurbishments and the consolidation of qualified shipyard facilities;
  • the risks and increased costs associated with operating internationally;
  • fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates;
  • the unavailability of ports of call;
  • overcapacity in key markets or globally;
  • our expansion into and investments in new markets;
  • our inability to obtain adequate insurance coverage;
  • our indebtedness and restrictions in the agreements governing our indebtedness that require us to maintain minimum levels of liquidity and otherwise limit our flexibility in operating our business, including the significant portion of assets that are collateral under these agreements;
  • pending or threatened litigation, investigations and enforcement actions;
  • volatility and disruptions in the global credit and financial markets, which may adversely affect our ability to borrow and could increase our counterparty credit risks, including those under our credit facilities, derivatives, contingent obligations, insurance contracts and new ship progress payment guarantees;
  • our inability to recruit or retain qualified personnel or the loss of key personnel or employee relations issues;
  • our reliance on third parties to provide hotel management services for certain ships and certain other services;
  • future increases in the price of, or major changes or reduction in, commercial airline services;
  • our inability to keep pace with developments in technology;
  • changes involving the tax and environmental regulatory regimes in which we operate; and
  • other factors set forth under “Risk Factors” in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2019.

Additionally, many of these risks and uncertainties are currently amplified by and will continue to be amplified by, or in the future may be amplified by, the COVID-19 outbreak.  It is not possible to predict or identify all such risks.  There may be additional risks that we consider immaterial or which are unknown

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1 minute ago, tallnthensome said:

Packed beaches for a few hours after lockdown and the ability to go home immediately after is a bit less risky and less expensive, Seaman. The beach is free. Not quite the same thing. What ships are there to fill up and where are they going to go? You have one big set of rose colored glasses, that’s for sure . 

what i am saying is , when any ship is ready  and the port is a go and dock is a go, they will have no issue filling up. many of us home fore months (by august) itching to go.  carnival offered its limited july sailing and sold out in 1 day. (granted that got canceled but the want is there)

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Some people seem to forget that there are different levels of bankruptcy.  People also forget that the media like to sensationalize headlines to get people to read/watch their stories.  Just because NCL has said bankruptcy is a possibility does not mean the company will no longer exist.  Will the company look different on the other side?  Sure.

 

As I noted earlier - the first way for NCLH to raise capital would be to sell off one or both alternate branded cruise lines and maintain the company as just NCL.

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