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Substantial Doubt of 'Going Concern'


kwokpot
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26 minutes ago, Drummer72 said:

Frank Del Rio & Genting will not let this happen.  

 

Most likely outcome is a PEF (private equity firm) will make a bid for a controlling preferred stock takeover. Then it’s business as usual.

 

Well, it's not really up to them; they will TRY, for sure, but ultimately it's not under their control whether or not they CAN secure loans.  But I agree with your likely outcome.

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11 minutes ago, tallnthensome said:

Are you aware that your article is a month old?  And that it projects that by May 3 (which was 2 days ago) deaths would be around 174 per day.  Yesterday,  May 4 Florida had 20 deaths.  It has been a huge success....not a hot spot.

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A side question/comment, has FDR and the senior executive leadership across the NCLH brand taken a pay cut or freeze/suspend their own cash compensation to alleviate the cash, while trimming 20% of the land-based staff.  Lead by example - other brand's CEO has taken their messages directly to their customers/supporters & most likely, privately to their employees & crews.  

 

This isn't going to business as usual, even if NCL managed to survive and recover, my opinions.  There are bigger worries on Wall Street and on Main Streets of America, unemployment rates hitting 20%.  Cruising for the millenials might be out of the question for a while, even for ships with reduced capacity.  

 

This is worst than waking up from a nightmare ... the threats are for real, in this case for NCL, in stating their own financials.  Feel free to disagree, for your convenience.  

 

Twenty one years of cruising on NCL.  

Edited by mking8288
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1 minute ago, Corliss said:

Are you aware that your article is a month old?  And that it projects that by May 3 (which was 2 days ago) deaths would be around 174 per day.  Yesterday,  May 4 Florida had 20 deaths.  It has been a huge success....not a hot spot.

As a Palm Beach County resident I can tell you Florida is not a success story...

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So we have two camps here.  We have the Debbie Downers who see gloom and doom and we see the Optimistic Ollvias who think things will ultimately be fine.   Welcome to the internet people!!  To be honest, nobody knows what's going to happen tomorrow, let alone 2 weeks from now.  I would not be surprised if someone rescues NCL or the other Cruise Lines.  I'm sure there might be investors looking to buy this at pennies on the dollar, but I think there's just as good a chance they wait for bankruptcy and buy the assets rather than the company.  Again, we just don't know!!!  I'm more on the optimistic side of things, but maybe just hopeful since I have a cruise booked.  But, it is what it is.

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8 minutes ago, steveknj said:

So we have two camps here.  We have the Debbie Downers who see gloom and doom and we see the Optimistic Ollvias who think things will ultimately be fine.   Welcome to the internet people!!  To be honest, nobody knows what's going to happen tomorrow, let alone 2 weeks from now.  I would not be surprised if someone rescues NCL or the other Cruise Lines.  I'm sure there might be investors looking to buy this at pennies on the dollar, but I think there's just as good a chance they wait for bankruptcy and buy the assets rather than the company.  Again, we just don't know!!!  I'm more on the optimistic side of things, but maybe just hopeful since I have a cruise booked.  But, it is what it is.

You left out the third choice; Factual Franks. By looking at ALL the facts you can make informed decisions. 

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NCL isn't going away.  They'll restructure and the share holders will take a bath here but the cruises will continue.  As others have pointed out they are gathering more investors and there will be plenty of interest from those with deep pockets.  This is simply the "next wave" in this COVID storm.  Expect to see the same from others in the travel sector as well as those in retail and restaurants.

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48 minutes ago, Drummer72 said:

PEOPLE this was a SEC filing. Not a press release.  Frank Del Rio & Genting will not let this happen.  

 

They will secure the loans they need to carry them into 2021.  The SEC filing is just a way to try and stay off paying debt. 

 

You guys read the headline and drink the “Kool Aid” every time.  NCL will survive this.  If they do not.  No cruise line can survive. another word it too big to fail.

 

Most likely outcome is a PEF (private equity firm) will make a bid for a controlling preferred stock takeover. Then it’s business as usual.

 

Does Genting HK and Apollo even have stake in NCLH anymore?  Regardless I can see another big player coming into the picture. 
 

I ended up buying some stock when it first went into the $7’s.  It’s been fun playing with it.  A person could have tripled the investment with the wild swings.  More fun than just reading the news.  I know it’s risky and no different than gambling and but it has actually made me $. 

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10 minutes ago, PATRLR said:

 

The relationship between NCL and the banks is not relevant to the consumer.  Worst case, the banks will need to eat the chargeback.

 

 

The credit card companies and banks do not need to eat the chargeback; the consumer might though

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32 minutes ago, spartancruisers said:

 

 

Yea, remember all those crazy fake articles that came out about the deadly virus a couple months ago?  

 

Yes, so glad we trusted Hannity and Limbaugh instead ... they assured us deep into March that this was just the sniffles, and man weren't they right?! 

Exactly as they predicted: we've all forgotten the coronavirus now.  So we can laugh at all the sheeple who keep falling for lamestream driveby media hype; much better to stick with the reliable info from Breitbart/Ingraham and the animal network.

 

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6 minutes ago, LMaxwell said:

Interesting.  Can you tell me how I can get a COVID-19 test in Florida? 

 

Oh, you're funny...:-)  You do know their testing rate is 3rd highest in the nation.

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3 minutes ago, LMaxwell said:

 

The credit card companies and banks do not need to eat the chargeback; the consumer might though

If your point is that the consumer will eventually pay in the form of higher bank fees, sure. The consumer always pays in the end.  

 

But if your point is that your chargeback may not be honored and you the consumer might never get a refund for that cruise, you would be wrong.  If NCL vanishes today, takes off and runs away with the money, whatever - the consumer is not the one left holding the bag, the bank is. 

 

 

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17 minutes ago, kwokpot said:

You left out the third choice; Factual Franks. By looking at ALL the facts you can make informed decisions. 

 

Well, that's true, but do we have ALL the facts?  Do we know what maneuvering NCL is doing behind the scenes?  Do we know if there's a plan for the Federal government to come to their rescue?  We only know what we know.  It doesn't look good but a lot of companies emerge from bankruptcy and a lot don't.  Again, these are the facts today.  Tomorrow there are new facts.  The fact was in early March, there are few to no cases of COVID in the states, and the facts today is there is over 1M. 

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To put this into perspective, while it is clearly not good, the filing and the language used is required anytime a company does not have sufficient liquidity for the next year.  Not exactly unexpected.  Nor does it mean doom is imminent.  Only that they will need to raise funds soon.

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10 minutes ago, Corliss said:

 

Oh, you're funny...:-)  You do know their testing rate is 3rd highest in the nation.

Actually Florida is 23rd in testing below the national average.

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3 hours ago, Nclcruise1415 said:

I'm not about to believe every single article that comes from the media. NCL has been able to put off some loans for up to a year on some of their ships and they're currently working different avenues (like many other lines) to protect and increase capital.

 

As much as you like to read the fear mongering articles you can also find articles that are telling what the lines are doing to protect themselves.

This doesn't "come from the media" whatever that means.  These are quotes from Del Rio.  

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14 minutes ago, Corliss said:

 

Oh, you're funny...:-)  You do know their testing rate is 3rd highest in the nation.

We absolutely are not #3 and I was not being facetious.  I am glad this is "cute" to you. 

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FUTURE CRUISE CERTIFICATES -- A STRATEGY?

Bought 4 so spent $500 for $1000 in certificates.  If there is a bankruptcy reorganization, I hope we still get to use it.  Two cruises booked using all four certificates - neither one near final payment date.  Chase credit card has trip insurance that covers "financial insolvency" of NCL.  To have the trip insurance, some portion must have been paid for with the credit card. Maybe I should pay $5 toward each cruise so I have the trip insurance?  I'd prefer to actually go on the cruise but might be worth a try.

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3 hours ago, kwokpot said:

Headline just reported on CNBC business news channel. Sounds like the company may be exploring Bankruptcy filing( My assumption bases on reported headline)

Many of them will go bankrupt but it wont mean that the company itself will dissapear. As far as I know, they have to go through this procedure in order to avoid paying taxes. They will register under a new name and start operations again like a new company. I might be wrong but filing bankruptcy does not always mean going out of business

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