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Time for NCLH financial-related posts?


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5 hours ago, howiefrommd said:

I have a semi-related question.  Unfortunately, I agreed to take a FCC and applied it towards a cruise in January 2022.  If a bankruptcy filing occurs (I would envision a Chapter 11 reorganization) what happens to the FCC?  Also, if the FCC has no value, since it was an FCC, would travel insurance (in my case Allianz) cover it?

 

I know that Allianz is covering my bookings in the event of BK....So it is possible. You should speak to your TA or call them Allianz directly.

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4 hours ago, wristband said:

Interesting to note Oceania's 2021 WC has all cabin categories available - not "waitlisted" like Mariner WC - save two.

 

But the Mariner WC has had most categories waitlisted since before the pandemic.  They've been up and down, fluid and changing, but always a few categories available.

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10 minutes ago, mrlevin said:

Here is link to just issued prospectus for both new shares and debt:

 

http://archive.fast-edgar.com/20200720/ATB2WG2C8Z22MZZA22ZN2ZZZ662P72Z2Z22G/

 

Not a very pretty read.

Find the following a significant change from previous reports and worrisome for sailing resuming anytime soon,

 

"The majority of the vessels in the Company’s fleet are transitioning to cold layup1, to further reduce operating expenses during the suspension"

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What do people think of this analysis of the new offering?  It doesn't appear to be all unalloyed upside - maybe a little curious if a lot of the fleet is going into cold layup?  Be interesting to see if the next earnings report sheds any more light on some of this.

 

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4359314-norwegian-cruise-line-holdings-dilutes-shareholders-again

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I have to believe that Regent management expects cruising to return slower than they felt it would a couple of months ago. Even if they bring back some ships into service in early 2021, they won’t be at capacity and they might have to raise prices. A lot of the bookings for next year are FCC’s so that means that little new cash is coming into them. They are also creating a lot of debt, which they probably need to survive in the short term, but that debt will impact future profits because of the added interest expense. The future is definitely uncertain and if COVID makes a comeback in the fall/winter along with the normal flu impact, it will be a very long winter of misery and the cruise industry will start to see some major contraction. I’ve been reading a great book on the Spnish Flu and it’s eery how similar things are with COVID. You would think that I was reading a current events book. Spanish flu came back a second time and it was much more devastating than the first pass. I hope history doesn’t repeat itself.

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6 minutes ago, pappy1022 said:

I’ve been reading a great book on the Spnish Flu and it’s eery how similar things are with COVID. You would think that I was reading a current events book. Spanish flu came back a second time and it was much more devastating than the first pass. I hope history doesn’t repeat itself.

 

Pappy, what is title of book?  Is there a kindle version?

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The Great Influenza: The Story of the Greatest Pandemic in History

i am reading it on Kindle. 540 pages. It takes a while to get to the Spanish Flu but interesting in that it discusses the evolution of medicine and medical training at the beginning of the book. 

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1 hour ago, fizzy said:

As everyone here has come to understand... timing is everything.

 

Ouch.

 

Property History for 272 Marinero Ct

Property Price

Date Event Price Price/Sq Ft Source
07/20/2020 Sold $7,150,000 $890 SouthEastFlorida
05/14/2020 Price Changed $7,995,000 $996 SouthEastFlorida
02/13/2020 Listed $8,995,000 $1,120 SouthEastFlorida
07/12/2018 Listed $11,500,000 $1,109 SouthEastFlorida
10/12/2016 Price Changed $8,499,000 $1,058 SouthEastFlorida
02/05/2016 Listed $8,995,000 $1,120 SouthEastFlorida
02/10/2014 Listed $8,250,000 $1,027 SouthEastFlorida
05/31/2007 Sold $7,500,000 $934
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Appears from the data he has been trying to sell the home for quite awhile and based on his purchase price in 2007 and the sale this week there was a lost of approx $350,000 on the sale plus of course sales cost which on a price that high is probably another $400K or so just for the realtor commission.

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Yeah, that's why I said good for the buyer.  Although did I see that correctly that the realtors worked for both sides?  Not throwing stones - when I got my condo, the realtor did represent both me and the seller - but we had to practically sign our lives away saying we understood and approved of that.

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1 minute ago, greykitty said:

Yeah, that's why I said good for the buyer.  Although did I see that correctly that the realtors worked for both sides?  Not throwing stones - when I got my condo, the realtor did represent both me and the seller - but we had to practically sign our lives away saying we understood and approved of that.

And the article linked in the initial post about this sale had it backwards and based on what they said it appeared there was a $350K profit on the sale so the price history of the property tells the true story.

 

And yes, the buyer did get a bargain.

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“BofA Says Norwegian Has 15 Months Of Liquidity: Norwegian plans to use the $1.4 billion in proceeds from the debt and equity offering it announced last week to pay down its $675-million revolver, Didora said.

With beefed-up liquidity of $3 billion, a cash burn rate of $120 million to $160 million per month and an estimated $35 million per month in cash refunds, the analyst said he expects Norwegian's liquidity to last through November 2021.This estimate assumes continued suspension of cruises and no improvement in cash refunds.” 

 

So NCLH is borrowing money to pay off other credit. That’s like using one credit card to pay down another credit card. The one benefit is that the revolving credit line gives access to more credit borrowing in the future.

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It is not totally uncommon to issue new debt when existing debt matures. The issue here, however, is that the interest rate on the new debt greatly exceeds the interest rate on the old debt. That is a problem. In the current interest rate environment, many corporations are redeeming  their existing debt at their “Call Date” and replacing it with debt at a much lower interest rate. It serves to reduce the current liabilities and improves their Balance sheets. Exactly the opposite is occurring with NCL.

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