Time for NCLH financial-related posts?

[greykitty]

I believe one  can look up and see where people are posting?  Are you suggesting compensation by a cruise line?   I did say I was particularly interested in Regent, after all.  And I do read other forums, both when I was researching possible cruises back in February, and just to observe the differences, and similarities, between various boards

 

And, I believe it's also possible to choose not to read any given poster's comments.

[pappy1022]

5 hours ago, Travelcat2 said:

First, while I may be a bit prejudice .....

 

You think?

[Pcardad]

47 minutes ago, greykitty said:

I believe one  can look up and see where people are posting?  Are you suggesting compensation by a cruise line?   I did say I was particularly interested in Regent, after all.  And I do read other forums, both when I was researching possible cruises back in February, and just to observe the differences, and similarities, between various boards

 

And, I believe it's also possible to choose not to read any given poster's comments.

 

I would not judge a cruise line or base your expectations on what you see and read here. Take advice from people whom you know and trust, make your best decision and then go and enjoy!

[greykitty]

@pcardad, a neighbor pointed me in Regent's direction last winter.   He and his wife enjoy several lines - their last trip was on the Viking TA from Miami that had to turn around mid-ocean and head home, due to Covid.  

 

 He said the same thing as you - so maybe I should be listening to two smart people! 

Edited August 6, 2020 by greykitty

[Dolebludger]

We consider cruise line bonds to be “junk bonds” we consider cruise line stock as highly speculative. We aren’t investing and we aren’t booking. In our opinion,  the risk outweighs the chance (small) for gain. And this applies to businesses other than cruise lines. It applies to every business that relies on its revenue the fact that people must congregate. Airlines, resorts, and such are off our investment goals until this mess is over— and maybe longer.

[Guerncruising]

7 hours ago, Dolebludger said:

We consider cruise line bonds to be “junk bonds” we consider cruise line stock as highly speculative. We aren’t investing and we aren’t booking. In our opinion,  the risk outweighs the chance (small) for gain. And this applies to businesses other than cruise lines. It applies to every business that relies on its revenue the fact that people must congregate. Airlines, resorts, and such are off our investment goals until this mess is over— and maybe longer.

Couldn’t agree more. I’ll do the mathematics for the worse case scenario of someone holding FCC - 125% FCC x 0 = 0.

Now I sincerely hope that does not happen because 100 thousand people worldwide could be affected, thinking of all those involved in the industry. 

I am sure that we all wish to help and get back to cruising as soon as it is safe to do so.

[GrJ Berkshire]

I think in view of the aborted attempts at cruises restarting , that serious questions on finance must be asked?

If ships are not sailing till spring 2021 or later, how will Regent and the cruise industry survive without any income for 14+ months. Also ships out of use will have upkeep costs, will Splendour after 2 months cruising and then laid up for a year become an expensive "white elephant" that with reduced capacity max75% never work on its business model?

Equally will enough passengers return to fill up 5 ships itineraries? Even worse on the mega ships?

Can't see new ships in the next 5-10 years being built?

[RJ2002]

6 hours ago, GrJ Berkshire said:

I think in view of the aborted attempts at cruises restarting , that serious questions on finance must be asked?

If ships are not sailing till spring 2021 or later, how will Regent and the cruise industry survive without any income for 14+ months. Also ships out of use will have upkeep costs, will Splendour after 2 months cruising and then laid up for a year become an expensive "white elephant" that with reduced capacity max75% never work on its business model?

Equally will enough passengers return to fill up 5 ships itineraries? Even worse on the mega ships?

Can't see new ships in the next 5-10 years being built?

 

IIRC, NCLH announced back in May that the financing it lined up would see it through "well over 12 months" of suspended sailings.  Of course, that was based on what was known at that time.  As things are playing out, it is conceivable that NCLH may have to solicit  additional funding to carry it through the restart.  Like many things about this situation, we'll just have to see what transpires. 

 

I am very hopeful that Regent is able to resume cruising sometime next spring or early summer.  

[pappy1022]

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings stock that sold for nearly $59 at the beginning of this year closed barely above $15 Tuesday, and has lost 72.5% of its value. If on Jan. 1 you had invested $10,000 in Norwegian Cruise shares, then today, your paper losses on that investment are $7,250. Your shares are worth $2,750.

 

[Ladys Mom]

We bought 100 shares of RCL and 100 shares of NCLH many years ago for onboard credit when there were not a whole lot of perks otherwise.  In the interim, we have made up our investment in OBC.  So we are in a no lose situation.  In addition, RCL has had a dividend for many years and its value has always stayed well above what we paid for it until the last March.  Since then, its value has returned to profitability for us.  NCLH has not done as well, but might in the future.

[Pcardad]

56 minutes ago, pappy1022 said:

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings stock that sold for nearly $59 at the beginning of this year closed barely above $15 Tuesday, and has lost 72.5% of its value. If on Jan. 1 you had invested $10,000 in Norwegian Cruise shares, then today, your paper losses on that investment are $7,250. Your shares are worth $2,750.

 

 

Or you could have played the rise and fall over the past 5 months and made 361% return.

 

If the loss in value was due to an internal issue, your point would be absolutely correct. However, NCLH, like may other companies, is suffering because of an outside influence. Many people feel that when this outside influence is removed, the true value of the stock will re-appear.

 

Of course, we could all be gone by then. Time will tell.

Edited August 12, 2020 by Pcardad

[pappy1022]

Your points are valid if you bought at the bottom and didn’t get greedy and sold before it tanked again, then you could have made good money. That’s the challenge of timing the market. No doubt that there are winners and losers during this pandemic but the overall stock market has recovered and has grown. Some industries, the travel industry being one, have been hit hard And it will be a difficult and long road to recovery. The one short term issue for Regent (and others) is that a stock sale won’t get them a lot of money unless they sell a lot of shares. It also opens the door for outside influence on the operational and strategic plans.

[JMARINER]

Seems like a good idea to continue this thread, rather than start a new one!

 

NCL Corporation Ltd. -- Moody's downgrades NCL Corporation's CFR to B2; outlook negative

Moody's•August 24, 2020

 

Rating Action: Moody's downgrades NCL Corporation's CFR to B2; outlook negative

Global Credit Research - 24 Aug 2020

New York, August 24, 2020 -- Moody's Investors Service, ("Moody's") downgraded the ratings of NCL Corporation Ltd. ("NCL") including its Corporate Family Rating to B2 from Ba2, Probability of Default Rating to B2-PD from Ba2-PD, senior secured rating to B1 from Ba2, and senior unsecured rating to Caa1 from B1. The company's Speculative Grade Liquidity rating of was upgraded to SGL-2 from SGL-3. The outlook is negative. This concludes the review for downgrade that was initiated on July 14, 2020.......

....Today's action reflects the impact on NCL from the deterioration in credit quality it has triggered, given its exposure to travel restrictions in the US, which has left it vulnerable to shifts in market demand and sentiment in these unprecedented operating conditions....

Read the full article here

J

 

[howiefrommd]

Had a a telephone conversation with my TA today.  She happened to bring up that Crystal is not taking and final payments at this time.  

[greykitty]

Somewhat related, L Catteron, the PE firm that recently shored up NCLH, has invested in a Latin American focused on-line travel agency, despite rampant COVID in the area.  They must be seeing a way to profit down the not too distant road. As Investopedia says, 'Private equity firms do not maintain ownership for the long term, but rather prepare an exit strategy after several years. Basically, they seek to improve upon an acquired business and then sell it for a profit.'

 

https://www.stamfordadvocate.com/business/article/Greenwich-private-equity-firm-invests-150M-in-15514432.php?src=sthpbiz

[Gray Eagle02]

3 Reasons to Sell NCLH stock now.
https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/08/26/3-reasons-to-sell-norwegian-cruise-line-stock-now/

[Pcardad]

I love the Motley Fool.....every free article they write is click bait to get you to buy a subscription. Not saying they are wrong all the time but they sure sensationalism the heck out of everything. Don't take free investment advice from anyone you don't know personally and trust absolutely. 

[pappy1022]

Motley Fool likes to taut their previous winners and successes but not their losers. I ignore their recommendations, which are essentially advertisements. However, I think they make good points, but I would include all cruise lines in this riskier investment area now. I don’t know who the winners and losers will be in the cruise industry but I do believe that the industry will look a lot different when this is over.

[greykitty]

Well, at least the Bermuda Stock Exchange is getting some  publicity from NCL today.  I don't believe this is new debt, but still interesting about using the BSX.  

 

"Cruise ship operator NCL Corporation Ltd has listed another $1.2 billion of debt on the Bermuda Stock Exchange.

This is in addition to $1.94 billion of debt listings it made on August 13."

 

http://www.royalgazette.com/business/article/20200901/cruise-operator-lists-12bn-of-debt-on-bsx

[greykitty]

From MSN on the heels of the Carnival 3Q preliminary results - wondering if RCG and NCLH will also be increasing borrowing or  selling stock, etc.

 

Carnival cashing in, shareholders getting out

Carnival's preliminary results were largely expected, with the company announcing it lost $2.9 billion in its fiscal third quarter as the industry still remains largely unable to return to the seas. Carnival has started some limited voyages with its Costa and AIDA lines, but barring a combination of fast, accurate, and cheap testing, better treatments, and widespread vaccines, the coronavirus pandemic will keep the industry stuck at port. 

Possibly the biggest reason Carnival shares fell sharply today was the news that the company would sell another $1 billion in stock to raise more cash, watering down investors who've bought on the hopes the company already had enough

cash to ride out a prolonged downturn. 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/s-26p-500-gains-18-points-carnival-takes-a-bath-kraft-heinz-says-hold-the-cheese-apple-goes-even-bigger-on-services/ar-BB194yWP

Shares of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NYSE: NCLH) and Royal Caribbean (NYSE: RCL) also fell on Carnival's announcement, losing 4.6% of their value today. 

[greykitty]

del Rio states 2021 cruise bookings are down, still hopeful that 2021 will be an 'ok' year.  I would guess with the FDA's expected to announce stricter rules on emergency authorization of a corona virus vaccine, those bookings won't pick up any faster (unless the fares come down drastically?)  Wonder what the cruise stocks will do tomorrow.  To be transparent, I had no expectation of a vaccine to be released to the general public before spring 2021 at the earliest, and that's even if we're extraordinarily fortunate with success in developing a vaccine(s) in record time.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/22/norwegian-ceo-sees-lower-2021-bookings-hopes-for-an-ok-year-as-cruises-try-to-resume-despite-coronavirus.html

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/09/22/fda-covid-vaccine-approval-standard/

 

 

[greykitty]

Might be a portent for NCLH? - RCL new offering to raise capital.   J&J paused vaccine trial, but that, to me, is neither surprising nor necessarily alarming.  But not super duper for cruise stocks in the moment, I think.

 

https://www.barrons.com/articles/cruise-ship-stocks-sink-as-royal-caribbean-plans-to-raise-capital-51602603538

 

https://seekingalpha.com/filing/5193075

[Pcardad]

It has been GREAT for cruise stocks lately - they are cycling up and down and provide a lot of potential to make money as any movement, up OR down is profit potential Today is a down day. Keep in mind most of this volume is day traders, not long term investors.

[Steve Q]

Here is an update on CCL. I can only assume that the other Lines are in the same predicament.

 

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4378684-carnival-corporation-bankruptcy-is-still-option

[greykitty]

I thought the Disney reorg was really interesting as well.  Definitely less emphasis on the parks or DCL as revenue streams now or in the nearish future.  I'm betting a friend we see Black Widow debut on Disney + like Mulan did.  Although I'd miss the 'big movie event' in the theater as much as anyone else, as well as visiting the parks.

 

Disney stock is up, last I looked - and they're still paying a dividend.

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/disney-major-reorganization-prioritizes-streaming-content-restructures-media-entertainment-distribution-2020-10