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Are we seeing the end of cruising?


weberman
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It isn't one person and I did report it, because this thread has gone sideways.  I come here when I get frustrated with the crowd at Packers.com!  Same issues, some of us want to talk football, someone always goes down the virus road. 

 

These are tough times but as an older person I want to know how other 70 something people feel about cruising.

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Back to the subject of safety on cruise ships. Would you sail if you didn't have confidence in safety?

 

This may explain the inability to suppress the disease after a long period of lockdown. The tests are inaccurate, particularly the quick tests used in the White House. That's what happens when you fast track approvals.

 

" False Negatives Raise More Questions About Virus Test Accuracy"

 

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/false-negatives-raise-more-questions-about-virus-test-accuracy-1.1436025

 

People who are infected get false negatives. Happily continues life as normal. 'It's only a little flu.'

 

Even if everyone on a 5k people ship gets tested before embarkation, some will slip through. That's why distancing and masks are your final line of defense.

 

Is this the end of cruising? Let's see what's the situation in August, and how the cruise companies adapt.

 

 

 

Edited by HappyInVan
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21 minutes ago, susancruzs said:

These last few pages of posts don't seem to have anything to do with the actual subject of this thread, arguing about the virus but not talking about cruises.  I know it isn't politics but there is a post about sticking to the subject of cruising.

 

I disagree.  The severity of the pandemic bears directly on whether and when cruises will resume.  Those on this thread who downplay the pandemic seem much more eager than others to jump on the first boat.

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2 hours ago, Cruise Raider said:

 

Whoa ... hold on there!!!  I NEVER indicated hospitals were committing fraud for the extra money!!  Where the heck did you get that from?  You seem to have been reading more into it than was actually written.  

 

As far as your information from the Kaiser Foundation, this is not how all hospitals bill for traditional Medicare.  The increase in reimbursement is an overall average, which I didn't make clear.  Obviously, this must be noted. 

 

 

You are correct about that. There were some posts where someone was talking about COVID-19 statistics being  inflated because the hospitals had an incentive to code people as being COVID-19 related.  That is why I commented about the fraud issue, not anything directly in your post. For some reason their posts seem to have vanished or it may actually in another stream will have to look for it.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by npcl
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2 hours ago, susancruzs said:

These are tough times but as an older person I want to know how other 70 something people feel about cruising.

 

 

????

 

You do realize that the title of this thread is "Are we seeing the end of cruising?"

 

I would like to suggest that you start a specific thread... "When will it be safe for those 70+ to resume sailing?"

 

That's something for your peers to rally around.

 

 

 

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9 minutes ago, HappyInVan said:

 

 

????

 

You do realize that the title of this thread is "Are we seeing the end of cruising?"

 

I would like to suggest that you start a specific thread... "When will it be safe for those 70+ to resume sailing?"

 

That's something for your peers to rally around.

 

 

 

I'll bit and try to get this thread on topic.  DW and I fall into that 70+ group and are both avid cruisers who normally would spend about 100 days a year on ships.  Now, I have no idea of our cruise future.  We are pretty adventurous travelers and will often assume some risk when we travel.   We will likely jump back into travel mode in the next few months but it will not likely include cruising.  At the moment we consider mass market cruise ships an unacceptable risk!  Having spent a lot of years in the health care industry I do appreciate the wisdom of social distancing....although we are willing to accept that it is not always possible when in travel mode.  But on a mass market cruise ship one is not going to routinely be able to distance themselves from other passengers...and since we love to socialize it would not be the way we want to cruise.  DW has a slightly different take on the subject.  She would be willing to accept the risk of being a ship, but is reluctant to accept the risk that ports will be closed, a single case of COVID-19 might find everyone quarrentined in their cabin for weeks, getting home on commercial transportation might be a problem, etc.  

 

But you ask "when will it be safe" and we think the easy answer is only when there is a safe and effective vaccine that is accessible to the cruisers.  And this may not happen for years if ever!   AS 70+ seniors that love to travel we need to make decisions on what risk is acceptable...given that any travel does come with COVID-19 and other risks.  That question is still an open (and daily) debate here in our home.  We do think that this kind of decision should be left to individuals and not government officials (I guess I am showing my libertarian tendencies).  I do think that it is very appropriate for the government to present the facts and educate us as to the risks.   But we are grownups and can make our own decisions.  Each person has their own "risk tolerance" level and unless I have forgotten some of my education...the assumption of risk is simply an individual freedom/right.

 

Hank

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53 minutes ago, Hlitner said:

I do think that it is very appropriate for the government to present the facts and educate us as to the risks.   But we are grownups and can make our own decisions.  Each person has their own "risk tolerance" level and unless I have forgotten some of my education...the assumption of risk is simply an individual freedom/right.

 

 

 

I'm not particularly concerned about dying. Everyone dies. Preferable, my passing is for the right price.

 

I am concerned that I might infect someone else. Thereby taking a life. Therefore, I have to be careful about taking risks. Who's going to be on the ship?

Edited by HappyInVan
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1 hour ago, HappyInVan said:

 

I'm not particularly concerned about dying. Everyone dies. Preferable, my passing is for the right price.

 

I am concerned that I might infect someone else. Thereby taking a life. Therefore, I have to be careful about taking risks. Who's going to be on the ship?


Yes.  Taking a risk concerning your own life or health is one thing.  Once your behavior endangers others that’s a whole different story.

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The title of thread says; "are we seeing the end of cruising".  Two part topic.  Here is my take

1. No we are not seeing the end of cruising;  we are seeing a pause in cruising until everything falls into place; Safety, security, health standards, CDC standards are met by cruise lines.

2. Are we seeing the end of cruising by people over 70.  That answer is yes and no.  Some people over 70 may feel it still may not be safe to cruise; while others who are healthy think they should not be singled out by CDC or cruise lines just because of their age.  

3. Disclaimer:  I am not an expert on this subject; I do not pretend to be a scientist or a doctor; nor do I want to start a debate on this subject.  I am just getting back on topic about what I see could happening with cruising in the next six months to a year.

4.  Have a great day where ever you live.

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AF-1 - I agree with your assessment. Our personal situation is we are both over 70. We very much want to continue cruising. DH has well managed type 2 diabetes. I have some respiratory issues well managed with Symbicort. We've taken 21 cruises with no problems. Perhaps we are naive & overly optimistic, but we are not ready to give up cruising. ♡

Edited by 1965
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IMHO cruising will not pick up until all of the following circumstances are in place.  First and foremost there will either need to be an effective vaccine that would be required to travel, in absence of an effective vaccine, effective medical treatments for Covid-19 infections or the virulence of Covid-19 is reduced to the same level as the common cold.  Other nations need to be willing to reopen their ports to travelers so the ships will have destinations to go to.  In the event of a breakout on a ship, the possibility of PAX being quarantined on the ship for an indefinite time period needs to be addressed satisfactorily.  With all that said, I do believe cruising is just in a hiatus and I am hopeful that we can all get back on board by next Spring.

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13 minutes ago, Daniel A said:

IMHO cruising will not pick up until all of the following circumstances are in place.  First and foremost there will either need to be an effective vaccine that would be required to travel, in absence of an effective vaccine, effective medical treatments for Covid-19 infections or the virulence of Covid-19 is reduced to the same level as the common cold.  Other nations need to be willing to reopen their ports to travelers so the ships will have destinations to go to.  In the event of a breakout on a ship, the possibility of PAX being quarantined on the ship for an indefinite time period needs to be addressed satisfactorily.  With all that said, I do believe cruising is just in a hiatus and I am hopeful that we can all get back on board by next Spring.

 

Agree with all of this except perhaps the part about next spring.  Could be fall of 2021 or later, I think, before those conditions are met.

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You do realize that the title of this thread is "Are we seeing the end of cruising?"

 

Of course, I realize the thread title and I don't think includes virus bickering, "I know more than you know".

 

I don't need to start a thread for "my peers", I like to read what others think about cruising, not their virus opinions.  I don't care how old they are, maybe I should have left the age part off.

 

Thanks for the "back on track" comments and I do have a cruise booked for Spring 2021, mid-April-May.  It was 35 days, changed to 21 days.  I'm cautiously optimistic but don't have unrealistic expectations as I know things can go south quickly with this.
 

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24 minutes ago, susancruzs said:

You do realize that the title of this thread is "Are we seeing the end of cruising?"

 

Of course, I realize the thread title and I don't think includes virus bickering, "I know more than you know".

 

I don't need to start a thread for "my peers", I like to read what others think about cruising, not their virus opinions.  I don't care how old they are, maybe I should have left the age part off.

 

Thanks for the "back on track" comments and I do have a cruise booked for Spring 2021, mid-April-May.  It was 35 days, changed to 21 days.  I'm cautiously optimistic but don't have unrealistic expectations as I know things can go south quickly with this.
 

 

The fact that COVID-19 stopped cruise ships dead in their wake I think is relevant to whether we will see the "end of cruising or not" because that is what brought on the current situation for the cruise lines.  So far COVID-19 is winning regarding that question and how that plays out will help shape the future of cruising.

 

People can book all the future cruises they want but all that means is that it could happen or it could not at this time and it really is not helpful information regarding the title of the thread.

 

I find the majority of the comments to be relevant, interesting, informative and entertaining.  Cheers!!

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Point taken, probably should apologize for my crankiness!  Yesterday I was frustrated because 2 other places were infiltrated with all virus stuff and nowhere the topic at hand.  Gardening and football! 🙂  I know the virus is first and foremost on the minds right now, I get it.  Sometimes I want to block it out!  Maybe I'll try more chocolate and coffee! 😄 

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26 minutes ago, susancruzs said:

Point taken, probably should apologize for my crankiness!  Yesterday I was frustrated because 2 other places were infiltrated with all virus stuff and nowhere the topic at hand.  Gardening and football! 🙂  I know the virus is first and foremost on the minds right now, I get it.  Sometimes I want to block it out!  Maybe I'll try more chocolate and coffee! 😄 

 

No worries....I thought your posts were right on and it does seem a few people do go after each other on CC regarding political stances and it sure does divert the threads.  

 

I guess it is the times we live in where everyone has an opinion but is unwilling to try and understand the opposing view or even make an effort.  I am guilty of that too.

 

My wife is from Dodgeville, WI.  Enjoy those chocolates!!  I do miss my Princess bedtime chocolates! :classic_biggrin:

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I'm in agreement with PrincessLuver.

 

Proverbs 19:21-23

 

' Man proposes, but God disposes.'

 

During this mitigation period, we should listen to the natural world and learn our lessons. Mass tourism has grown explosively in the last 20 years. Consequences include overcrowded sites, annoyed locals, and inevitably the rise of pandemics. We can't go back to the old ways.

 

The covid disease is a wakeup call. Yes, we need to change the way we travel. Perhaps, this is the end of mass cruising. So be it.

 

Covid19 is a serious illness, perhaps equivalent to the Spanish Flu. But, it is not the world killer. We need to have the protocols in place for the next big one. Next time, we will have no excuses that it was all a big surprise. 

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2 hours ago, susancruzs said:

You do realize that the title of this thread is "Are we seeing the end of cruising?"

 

Of course, I realize the thread title and I don't think includes virus bickering, "I know more than you know".

 

 

 

From my POV. the discussions are about how to cope with this new disease. Some hope that your country will reach herd immunity soon. For myself, I learn from the success stories, about best practices, effective strategies, strong execution and good leadership. Therefore, facts matter. Lives matter.

 

In the end, the only thing that counts are the results. A good outcome speaks about fundamental strengths. A bad outcome indicates fundamental weaknesses. 

 

In Europe, they are creating safety bubbles among comparable nations. General tourism and cruising will resume soon. Is this the end of cruising in the USA?

 

BTW, in British Columbia...

 

"Almost 80% of British Columbians support reopening plans, poll finds"

 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/poll-re-open-bc-horgan-support-1.5561525

 

 

Edited by HappyInVan
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5 hours ago, AF-1 said:

The title of thread says; "are we seeing the end of cruising".  Two part topic.  Here is my take

1. No we are not seeing the end of cruising;  we are seeing a pause in cruising until everything falls into place; Safety, security, health standards, CDC standards are met by cruise lines.

2. Are we seeing the end of cruising by people over 70.  That answer is yes and no.  Some people over 70 may feel it still may not be safe to cruise; while others who are healthy think they should not be singled out by CDC or cruise lines just because of their age.  

3. Disclaimer:  I am not an expert on this subject; I do not pretend to be a scientist or a doctor; nor do I want to start a debate on this subject.  I am just getting back on topic about what I see could happening with cruising in the next six months to a year.

4.  Have a great day where ever you live.

 

3 hours ago, Daniel A said:

IMHO cruising will not pick up until all of the following circumstances are in place.  First and foremost there will either need to be an effective vaccine that would be required to travel, in absence of an effective vaccine, effective medical treatments for Covid-19 infections or the virulence of Covid-19 is reduced to the same level as the common cold.  Other nations need to be willing to reopen their ports to travelers so the ships will have destinations to go to.  In the event of a breakout on a ship, the possibility of PAX being quarantined on the ship for an indefinite time period needs to be addressed satisfactorily.  With all that said, I do believe cruising is just in a hiatus and I am hopeful that we can all get back on board by next Spring.

Good points that apply beyond cruising as well.

 

It will likely be a very long time before there is an effective vaccine or herd immunity (if either of them comes at all).   Medical treatment will be the key in the foreseeable future.  Hopefully we see advances in both treatment techniques and medicine that are effective and that reduce hospitalizations, deaths, and recovery times. 

 

If the WHO statement from today (yesterday?) is to be believed, the virus will become endemic in our society and will become something that we have to live with.  The good news in that is that it's understood that it's not rare anywhere (North Korea aside).  Where cruise ports initially closed to keep it out, that's no longer a justifiable reason.  So the ports that survive on tourism and like the cruise $ will need to determine if they're willing to take the risk and allow ships.  I suspect they will.   The risk of quarantine on a ship could remain real unless there are ports that say in advance they'll allow disembarkation.

 

Really, from this point on, doing anything is going to be an assessment of personal risk.  Whether it's going on a cruise, or Disney World, a baseball game, a concert, a restaurant, or elsewhere.  Is the personal reward worth the risk?

 

Specific to cruising, it'll be very individualized.  For example, if shows are a major high point in your cruising, are you willing to still go to them, or will you give up that part of the trip?  Are you comfortable on the pool deck? lounges? buffet?   Will you have to change your cruising habits in order to feel comfortably distant from others, and if so, is that an acceptable change?  And of course, it will involve the actions the ship takes as well.   Will Carnival have the same precautions as Princess or Holland America?  Will you think they're insufficient and not cruise, or will you think they're too much, too intrusive, and not cruise?  That's not to mention port facilities.  Will transatlantics be ghost ships because help is so far away?  Will people choose itineraries that go to locations with known-good medical facilities?  Win for the USVI perhaps, and a loss for Belize? 

 

My personal cruising habits aren't likely to change much, as I tend to avoid crowded areas and spend a lot of time outside.  While I'm older than I once was but younger than I'll be (that's not unusual), I'm also not in an at-risk group.    We cruise where it's warm when it's cold at home and spend a lot of time outside.   We'll likely carry sanitizer everywhere and be more aware of the behaviors of those around us.   Open air buses and excursions will likely win out over closed spaces as well.   With what I thought were reasonable precautions, I wouldn't hesitate to be on the first ship back out of port.  A lot of the friends we cruise with have different personal situations and wouldn't say the same.  

 

 

 

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While not a end to cruising, it may be the end of cruising as we knew it.  Once there is a viable vaccine in use world-wide to the point that missed ports and disrupted cruises are a thing of the past,  we will evaluate the new conditions and patterns of behaviors on the ships to see if the product is still of interest.  

 

And, at the pace Princess is giving us our refund for a cruise that they cancelled two months ago, we would be hard-pressed to book with them again.

 

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.

 

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JMO I don't think we're seeing the end of cruising BUT probably are seeing the end of cruising as it has been in the past - just makes me wonder how all this will shake out, especially since the Presidents of Azamara, HAL and Seabourn all have/are going to retire.

 

 

 

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51 minutes ago, D C said:

 

Good points that apply beyond cruising as well.

 

It will likely be a very long time before there is an effective vaccine or herd immunity (if either of them comes at all).   Medical treatment will be the key in the foreseeable future.  Hopefully we see advances in both treatment techniques and medicine that are effective and that reduce hospitalizations, deaths, and recovery times. 

 

If the WHO statement from today (yesterday?) is to be believed, the virus will become endemic in our society and will become something that we have to live with.  The good news in that is that it's understood that it's not rare anywhere (North Korea aside).  Where cruise ports initially closed to keep it out, that's no longer a justifiable reason.  So the ports that survive on tourism and like the cruise $ will need to determine if they're willing to take the risk and allow ships.  I suspect they will.   The risk of quarantine on a ship could remain real unless there are ports that say in advance they'll allow disembarkation.

 

Really, from this point on, doing anything is going to be an assessment of personal risk.  Whether it's going on a cruise, or Disney World, a baseball game, a concert, a restaurant, or elsewhere.  Is the personal reward worth the risk?

 

Specific to cruising, it'll be very individualized.  For example, if shows are a major high point in your cruising, are you willing to still go to them, or will you give up that part of the trip?  Are you comfortable on the pool deck? lounges? buffet?   Will you have to change your cruising habits in order to feel comfortably distant from others, and if so, is that an acceptable change?  And of course, it will involve the actions the ship takes as well.   Will Carnival have the same precautions as Princess or Holland America?  Will you think they're insufficient and not cruise, or will you think they're too much, too intrusive, and not cruise?  That's not to mention port facilities.  Will transatlantics be ghost ships because help is so far away?  Will people choose itineraries that go to locations with known-good medical facilities?  Win for the USVI perhaps, and a loss for Belize? 

 

My personal cruising habits aren't likely to change much, as I tend to avoid crowded areas and spend a lot of time outside.  While I'm older than I once was but younger than I'll be (that's not unusual), I'm also not in an at-risk group.    We cruise where it's warm when it's cold at home and spend a lot of time outside.   We'll likely carry sanitizer everywhere and be more aware of the behaviors of those around us.   Open air buses and excursions will likely win out over closed spaces as well.   With what I thought were reasonable precautions, I wouldn't hesitate to be on the first ship back out of port.  A lot of the friends we cruise with have different personal situations and wouldn't say the same.  

 

 

 

Very low levels in many of the ports in Caribbean and Alaska that cruise ships visit, so not allowing outsiders in, as well as cruise ships, exists for many of those ports.

 

The main reason for not allowing cruise ships to sail is the same as not allowing filled sports stadiums - rate of attack and transmission.  So just because it is in the community does not mean that ships will sail.

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56 minutes ago, D C said:

If the WHO statement from today (yesterday?) is to be believed, the virus will become endemic in our society and will become something that we have to live with.  The good news in that is that it's understood that it's not rare anywhere (North Korea aside).  Where cruise ports initially closed to keep it out, that's no longer a justifiable reason. 

 

Fact check: A simple check of this wiki resource will show a multitude of low/rare infection countries and territories. All these examples are cruise destinations.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic#Epidemiology

 

 

British Virgin Islands (pop 35k) has 7 confirmed cases. “From 19 March, Public Health England no longer classified COVID-19 as a "High consequence infectious disease".[4]”

 

Papua New Guinea (pop 8.6m) has 8 cases. Last known infection April 23.

 

Seychelles (pop 97k) has 11 cases. Turks and Caicos Islands (pop 55k ) has 12 cases.

 

It's not just the rarity of the disease. The big worry on the minds of the locals is how they will cope with an outbreak.

 

Check the WHO reports to identify the destinations where the infection is classified as 'sporadic' versus 'community spread'.

 

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/

 

 

Of course, you are entitled to your opinion, and you can spend your money as you like. I do recommend to Happy Cruisers that you safeguard yourself by avoiding the places where 'community spread' is ongoing. And protect the safe communities where infection is rare.

 

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The efforts to which some people go to be negative is quite mind boggling.

 

COVID is everywhere in the world right now. Whether a cruise port city has 1, 100, or 1000 COVID19 cases RIGHT NOW is irrelevant to the normalcy that will be the future in the coming months and years. Unless entire islands are planning to isolate from the outside world and literally wait out the disease, COVID cases will increase everywhere for the foreseeable future. Management will become key.  A vaccine is unlikely and herd immunity is unlikely in the short term, which means that the need to learn to live with COVID is very likely. That seems to be an extremely difficult concept for some people to grasp.

 

How we collectively manage the "future normal" will determine the future of every activity that involves groups of people.

 

The choices are to accept the reality and make conscious decisions and risk assessments on an individual basis, deciding which activities are acceptable or not for one's given situation; or to sit back, be negative, and refuse to acknowledge that life will go on despite the presence of a virus.  I don't own a crystal ball, but I suspect the cruise industry and most ports of call are on the "let's figure out how to establish a new normal" side of the fence. 

 

This is far from the end of cruising. We might see smaller fleets, fewer ports of call, and perhaps less diversity in ages on some ships.  The demand is too big to collapse completely, imho. 

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35 minutes ago, D C said:

The efforts to which some people go to be negative is quite mind boggling.

 

COVID is everywhere in the world right now. Whether a cruise port city has 1, 100, or 1000 COVID19 cases RIGHT NOW is irrelevant to the normalcy that will be the future in the coming months and years. Unless entire islands are planning to isolate from the outside world and literally wait out the disease, COVID cases will increase everywhere for the foreseeable future. Management will become key.  A vaccine is unlikely and herd immunity is unlikely in the short term, which means that the need to learn to live with COVID is very likely. That seems to be an extremely difficult concept for some people to grasp.

 

How we collectively manage the "future normal" will determine the future of every activity that involves groups of people.

 

The choices are to accept the reality and make conscious decisions and risk assessments on an individual basis, deciding which activities are acceptable or not for one's given situation; or to sit back, be negative, and refuse to acknowledge that life will go on despite the presence of a virus.  I don't own a crystal ball, but I suspect the cruise industry and most ports of call are on the "let's figure out how to establish a new normal" side of the fence. 

 

This is far from the end of cruising. We might see smaller fleets, fewer ports of call, and perhaps less diversity in ages on some ships.  The demand is too big to collapse completely, imho. 

One can also say that the lengths people go to, to ignore the issues involved with the pandemic is equally mind boggling.

 

If they are smart they will isolate for the length of time necessary to protect their residents.  If they do open to tourism it should be from areas where the illness is under control and cases are few, not from an area where it is considered to be endemic so no use to try and control.

 

Individuals can make some very bad decisions resulting in additional infections. (like the 72 that got infected while out demonstrating for the stay at home order to end in Wisconsin). Better to follow a consistent rule set established and vetted by those most familiar with epidemiology and especially with infectious disease. Especially when a less cautious personal choice could result in  others than the person making the choice getting seriously ill and potentially resulting in death.  As an ad that runs on local  TV where I am, have you accidentally killed anyone today?

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