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Don't Bet on NCL Making It Says The Motley Fool


cruiser4801
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It all comes down to whether or not Covid spikes up again in the fall. If it does then the cruise lines won't make it. They will go the bankruptcy route well before there cash runs out. In fact, its unlikely the loans they got are deposited to an operating account. More likely it is drawn out as they need with the option of the loan provider to cancel the remainder. i don't know for sure though.

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They'll be fine.  By Fall, people won't care too much anymore about the ccv.  Just look at the beaches and bars in New York of all places this weekend.  For the vast, vast majority of people, it's nothing or a mild to bad cold.  Not worth cancelling life over.

 

People who have the known risks shouldn't be cruising, everyone else can sail away.

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I just think there's a segment of people on here who are rooting for the cruise lines to fail for some reason.  Maybe just to prove a point?  I don't know. 

 

I don't think any of us know how this is going to turn out.  I play to stay optimistic and if it doesn't work out, so be it.  If it does, I will be cruising next spring.

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45 minutes ago, boatseller said:

They'll be fine.  By Fall, people won't care too much anymore about the ccv.  

Except local and federal governments will care. You can forget about a cruise  ship leaving a New York port for a while, at least until there is a reliable vaccine. Perhaps other cities will make an attempt at it, regardless it is going to negatively impact the industry.

 

I'm rooting for them to succeed, but I don't think I'll be planning another cruise for quite a while. Really bummed because I should be on day 2 on the Encore for Bermuda at the moment.

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It won't be the paying public or the cruise lines that decide - it is the port cities.

 

Unless hundreds of people are willing to pay for cruises to nowhere, cruise lines will have a tough sell unless they can put together itineraries with actual stops to places people want to visit.

 

Now granted, the Seychelles are not on every itinerary but I read this morning they won't be permitting any ships to stop there until 2022.  I don't read about too many other more common places wanting the ships to return.  Think about popular places like St. Thomas that often has 6-7 ships in port...20,000 strangers in one day...may be a risk these small islands are not willing to take, despite the tourist dollars lost.

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14 minutes ago, msmayor said:

Unless hundreds of people are willing to pay for cruises to nowhere, cruise lines will have a tough sell unless they can put together itineraries with actual stops to places people want to visit.

 

"Cruises to Nowhere" don't exist anymore.  The U.S government doesn't allow them.

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1 hour ago, steveknj said:

I just think there's a segment of people on here who are rooting for the cruise lines to fail for some reason.  Maybe just to prove a point?  I don't know. 

 

I don't think any of us know how this is going to turn out.  I play to stay optimistic and if it doesn't work out, so be it.  If it does, I will be cruising next spring.

Don't think people on CC are rooting for failure. More like being realistic, many still think June/July there will be cruises, contrary to the current indicators. 

 

Del Rio is on record as saying late 3Q possibly 4Q. That points to September or later, not mid-summer.

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, NutsAboutGolf said:

It's isn't exactly "The Motley Fool", it's one contributors' opinion.  At the bottom it states: "Jeremy Bowman has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Carnival. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy."

Guess that explains why they appear to be all over the map when it comes to cruise line predictions.  Thanks!

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21 hours ago, cruiser4801 said:

Motley Fool just issued this article:

 

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/05/17/will-cruise-stocks-ever-be-profitable-again.aspx

 

Bottom line, NCL's recovery will depend on how long Covid-19 sticks around.  I would not bet on a quick recovery.



THE SKY IS FALLING
THE SKY IS FALLING

Let me ask you this.  DO YOU have sufficient cash in hand to survive 12-18 months with zero income?  Also the stock went up almost 18% today!

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21 minutes ago, MoCruiseFan said:



THE SKY IS FALLING
THE SKY IS FALLING

Let me ask you this.  DO YOU have sufficient cash in hand to survive 12-18 months with zero income?  Also the stock went up almost 18% today!

Well... I have enough for about 7 more months...... Then I have to raid our personal "cruise fund".   DAMNED if I want to do that!

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22 hours ago, cruiser4801 said:

Motley Fool just issued this article:

 

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/05/17/will-cruise-stocks-ever-be-profitable-again.aspx

 

Bottom line, NCL's recovery will depend on how long Covid-19 sticks around.  I would not bet on a quick recovery.

 

22 hours ago, cruiser4801 said:

I don’t think so either. Huge message when they lay-off a large amount of their corporate staff. Dumped cruise stocks. 

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22 hours ago, HaveWeMetYet said:

It all comes down to whether or not Covid spikes up again in the fall. If it does then the cruise lines won't make it. They will go the bankruptcy route well before there cash runs out. In fact, its unlikely the loans they got are deposited to an operating account. More likely it is drawn out as they need with the option of the loan provider to cancel the remainder. i don't know for sure though.

I am in healthcare. It’s simply my opinion that this isn’t seasonal as it hit globally different regions with variable seasonal conditions. We will have to face herd immunity, or pharmacological interventions as a society to move forward. We will get it done in this modern society. 
 That in less than 90 days- they let go a chunk of their corporate staff, and mishandled the transition of their crew, leads me to believe they are doomed to fail.

Then they hire some former FDA guy to help with all these initiatives, when they need to hire a  task force of frontline style brains with true hospital/nursing home experience to synchronize with different departments to push the narrative that infection control practices is top priority. This is from their IT department working with the ships, to the shore ex department, to marketing and sales. All in approach. 
I love cruising. I really do. But their lack of certainty in this stage of the game on their website, has me holding any funds to book a cruise. This isn’t - we have more hand washing stations... Each ship needs to be individually held accountable with a click on link on their site with information. I want a library of information. 

sorry for the rant. Long week at work, and wanted to pop in to see the posts. 

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11 hours ago, boatseller said:

They'll be fine.  By Fall, people won't care too much anymore about the ccv.  Just look at the beaches and bars in New York of all places this weekend.  For the vast, vast majority of people, it's nothing or a mild to bad cold.  Not worth cancelling life over.

 

People who have the known risks shouldn't be cruising, everyone else can sail away.

So you'll sign a waiver saying you won't take up a ventilator or ICU bed if you get sick? 

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Definitely do not want any cruise line to fail.

 

That being said, i'm not sure they can handle the cash burn rate, so for now i'll take my cash refund and see what happens.  Hopefully all resumes and we can all start cruising again.

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23 hours ago, Jason82 said:

Motley Fool also wants me to pay now for a subscription for a super rare "buy alert" that they haven't given since amazon was available for pennies. 

Ain't that the truth!  They do like their sensationalism.

 

Fact is, if a shutdown continues for another 6 months or more, there are LOTS of businesses that won't make it.  You can throw some big ones into that pile, too....GE, Boeing, and many others.

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13 hours ago, PortFees45 said:

So you'll sign a waiver saying you won't take up a ventilator or ICU bed if you get sick? 

40% of new cases in New York are people obeying the Stay at Home Order.  Clearly staying at home is very risky, will you ask them to sign the same waiver?

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1 hour ago, boatseller said:

40% of new cases in New York are people obeying the Stay at Home Order.  Clearly staying at home is very risky, will you ask them to sign the same waiver?

The cognitive dissonance of this statement is staggering. The lockdown in NYC is precisely what has flattened the curve and prevented the healthcare system from being overwhelmed, which it was absolutely on the brink of just a few short weeks ago. 

 

People who quarantine at home still have to get groceries, open doors that neighbors use, ride in elevators, etc. The fact you saw that kind of infection rate from people TAKING precautions is actually the best argument in the world for how contagious this virus is, and how recklessly stupid it would be to prematurely "open up" without the resources to protect the public's health. The LAST thing the stat you cite suggests is "clearly staying at home is very risky." 

 

To draw an equivalence between someone following the advice of public health officials, sheltering at home, and doing their best to take at least one more body out of the chain of transmission - and some selfish, ignorant fool refusing to feel a mask because it makes THEM feel tough or something is absurd. 

 

I assume you're like this guy interviewed in the Post, another person who lacked the cognitive ability to understand the importance and seriousness of this until it literally happened to them. Try learning to care about people in your community you don't know or can't see. It will make you a more evolved human being. 

 

https://nypost.com/2020/05/18/florida-man-who-called-coronavirus-fake-crisis-gets-infected/

Edited by PortFees45
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On 5/18/2020 at 11:45 AM, steveknj said:

I just think there's a segment of people on here who are rooting for the cruise lines to fail for some reason.  Maybe just to prove a point?  I don't know. 

 

There's also a segment of people on the internet who think that posting any bad news is 'fear mongering', or hoping for a bad outcome.

 

I've cruised on NCL more than any other line. I also think if any of the big three are likely to go under, it's NCL. They're the first ones that used the word 'bankruptcy'. Yeah, they've managed to get themselves liquid for the next X months, but that money has to be repaid somehow. 

 

I also own NCL stock (bought when it dropped to about $7). But I consider that more like buying a lottery ticket (virus burns itself out? vaccine comes early? I win) than investing. 

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On 5/18/2020 at 4:36 PM, boatseller said:

They'll be fine.  By Fall, people won't care too much anymore about the ccv.  Just look at the beaches and bars in New York of all places this weekend.  For the vast, vast majority of people, it's nothing or a mild to bad cold.  Not worth cancelling life over.

 

People who have the known risks shouldn't be cruising, everyone else can sail away.

ooooo how do I know if I won't die? Sure if I'm old, or fat, or have high blood pressure, or asthma (I think that covers a large majority of the worlds population) I'm at even more risk but many healthy people are also dying.

 

So how do I know - can you tell me?

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6 minutes ago, pmd98052 said:

ooooo how do I know if I won't die? Sure if I'm old, or fat, or have high blood pressure, or asthma (I think that covers a large majority of the worlds population) I'm at even more risk but many healthy people are also dying.

 

So how do I know - can you tell me?

 

Well...how will you ever know? 

 

People haven't been cruising for over two months, yet people are still catching and dying from this (and other) diseases...proving that this certainly isn't a cruise issue. So...how will you ever be 100% safe from everything - can you tell me?

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