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2 hours ago, shipbound2 said:

It will probably go up and down for a while but don't sell .Once there is a reliable vaccine for COVID-19 ,which could be by years end, and the ships are sailing again things will get back to normal.


If it goes down again, I will buy more stock.  I would never sell when a stock is low and I agree that once there is a vaccine things will go back to normal.  I am in it for the long haul.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, TNcruising02 said:


If it goes down again, I will buy more stock.  I would never sell when a stock is low and I agree that once there is a vaccine things will go back to normal.  I am in it for the long haul.

I don't think it will ever go down to 8.00 dollars per share but you never know that is what I bought it at.

 

Edited by shipbound2

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3 minutes ago, shipbound2 said:

I don't think it will ever go down to 8.00 dollars per share but you never know that is what I bought it at.

 


I agree.  That ship may have sailed.  🙂

It was a great opportunity for purchasing stocks while it lasted.  I'm keeping an eye on it though.

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7 hours ago, shipbound2 said:

It will probably go up and down for a while but don't sell .Once there is a reliable vaccine for COVID-19 ,which could be by years end, and the ships are sailing again things will get back to normal.


I keep reading similar comments on this forum about when a reliable vaccine for COVID-19 is available. While every virus is different, there is no guarantee a vaccine will be available for this virus any time soon. For those old enough to remember the 1980s, there was a lot of optimism in the scientific community that a vaccine for HIV would likely be available within 2 years. Fast forward to today and a vaccine has still not been developed for HIV.  I am not saying the same thing will happen with the current coronavirus, but it is far from a certainty that an effective vaccine will be developed in the near future. 

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Right now I think the rise is anticipation of earnings in the future. The rise on earnings and profits are what will support the stock. Be cautious. The shareholder benefit is nice, but not guaranteed. It could be withdrawn by the board at any

 time. Do not look for the dividend to be restored until the till is full and profits are being made.

 

People must consider that the recovery may take longer than many people think. What happens if they fully reopen and there is not enough interest to fill the ships?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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The shareholder benefit is not guaranteed but is a cheap marketing tool that increases brand loyalty so that would be the last thing they would do away with when they need past cruisers to book another cruise.

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On 5/26/2020 at 2:06 PM, shipbound2 said:

CCl stock is going up and up hopefully it will continue.

 

I bought in early 2000 and watched it go up and down...but always enjoyed my OBC benefits.  As of February, 2020,   I never look at the price....so it really doesn't matter to me until the Board of Directors pulls that perk.  Oh...at one time, I was ahead $4000 but know better than to look today....LOL

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9 minutes ago, HillBilly Bob said:

I bought in early 2000 and watched it go up and down...but always enjoyed my OBC benefits.  As of February, 2020,   I never look at the price....so it really doesn't matter to me until the Board of Directors pulls that perk.  Oh...at one time, I was ahead $4000 but know better than to look today....LOL

I'm hoping it continues to  go then split that would be for all including the company.

 

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8 hours ago, Moviela said:

Right now I think the rise is anticipation of earnings in the future. The rise on earnings and profits are what will support the stock. Be cautious. The shareholder benefit is nice, but not guaranteed. It could be withdrawn by the board at any

 time. Do not look for the dividend to be restored until the till is full and profits are being made.

 

People must consider that the recovery may take longer than many people think. What happens if they fully reopen and there is not enough interest to fill the ships?

 

 

Some of us have already been around this bend in the river. CCL has stopped paying dividends before (like after 9/11) but the Shareholder OBC continues. When CCL starts paying a dividend again, it will start out small and grow as profits grow.

 

If Carnival lowers the price enough, people will sail. All Carnival needs is permission to sail.

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3 hours ago, BlerkOne said:

 

Some of us have already been around this bend in the river. CCL has stopped paying dividends before (like after 9/11) but the Shareholder OBC continues. When CCL starts paying a dividend again, it will start out small and grow as profits grow.

 

If Carnival lowers the price enough, people will sail. All Carnival needs is permission to sail.

Received a $50 dividend for March 2020 I have had Carnival stock for a few years now and I always received the dividend. Do not know what will happen now though.

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I think I've had my oldest shares of ccl over 15 years. I have gotten a lot of undeclared dividends of $100 here, $100 there, but now I'm in deep, bought more around $30, oops but looks like eventually it will come back. 

 

Lots of traders and profit taking so it will have to fight it's way back up. Lots of resistance around $17 right now.

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Posted (edited)

20200602_093045733.thumb.jpeg.bae0fc39324e082e6b5512932b270bfa.jpegWatching ccl stock today. As a trader I know it important it holds 17 or it will drop back into a trading range. If stays in a trading range, traders keep buying lower and selling. What is that idiom?  3 times testing 17 and then it should move higher?

 

2nd is better chart showing previous attempts to move higher

 

 

 

20200602_093045733.jpeg

20200602_094129611.jpeg

Edited by firefly333

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@firefly333 so this means that if the CCL stock stays above 17 then the market is responding favorably and is a good indicator that the stock will go up?  Thx for your insight!

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Posted (edited)

No has little to do with the rest of the market. What I'm saying is it seems stuck in a trading range. People buy when it drops and then when it fails at 17 take profits. 

 

Its stuck in a trading range it doesnt seem like it can break out of.

 

I hope I'm wrong and it can break thru resistance around 17 and hold above 17. 

Edited by firefly333

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Posted (edited)

I believe it will eventually continue to go up.  I'm so glad I bought the stock this year.  Even if someone was nervous, they could have bought the stock at $10 and sold it at $17, making a profit.  I plan on hanging on to my stock.  I am thousands of dollars ahead right now, but I believe the stock will eventually continue to rise as this virus run its course.   The OBC is a bonus and appreciated.

Edited by TNcruising02

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Posted (edited)

Go go go. It broke thru 17 and held so it can now go higher and find new support level.

 

May take a year, but at least I think now I'll break even. Most traders use charts to buy. Moving averages, candlestick charts, look at volume spikes, all that good stuff. 

 

Cramer and shorts had control for a while. I was worried, but now feel we are are safer firmer ground. Cramer is a infamous short and trader who tries to manipulate stocks. Glad he didnt win. Most dont buy for long term, they buy for the trade based on the charts. 

Edited by firefly333
Grrr spellcheck, volume not column

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I am so glad I invested in these travel stocks.  They are way up today. It will be very interesting to see how the stocks look a year from now.  So far, so good.  What a great opportunity it's been for investing these past few months.

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Vegas is opening some casinos today. I'm looking for news what is driving ccl higher but dont see specifics. Good sign for cruising though if casinos are opening land based. 

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12 minutes ago, TNcruising02 said:

I am so glad I invested in these travel stocks.  They are way up today. It will be very interesting to see how the stocks look a year from now.  So far, so good.  What a great opportunity it's been for investing these past few months.

 

 

The analysts are all over the place on travel stocks. They have CCL as low as $5 and high as $50 for the next year. Morgan Stanley issue a sell and not very optimistic opinion. Who knows, I'm shocked at the Dow increase over the last 2 weeks, makes no sense,

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I'm personally not bullish myself. Carnival giving out $600 to rebook is going to kill any earnings for the next year. I wouldnt buy here myself, but unfortunately my crystal ball was fuzzy and I bought before princess got stuck in japan and also bought oil stocks. I didnt predict this virus well myself. I dont use stops, so I'm long these terrible buys. 

 

I agree with analysts it will probably be 2023 before carnival recovers as far as earnings. Cruising will have low demand. I already see signs of discounting on other sites I mentioned and someone told me oh probably group space, nonsense. I said I see discounted cruises in August in plain sight. Group space would already have been given back for august. 

 

Earnings wise, I wouldnt be jumping in right here,this is traders in and out today. I'm just relieved they are probably out of the really dire straits they were in cash flow wise. Buy for the obc yes, but not for the value right now.

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11 minutes ago, firefly333 said:

I agree with analysts it will probably be 2023 before carnival recovers as far as earnings. Cruising will have low demand. I already see signs of discounting on other sites I mentioned and someone told me oh probably group space, nonsense. I said I see discounted cruises in August in plain sight. Group space would already have been given back for august. 

"Group space", are you talking about social distancing, reducing the number of passengers, or something else? TIA!

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Posted (edited)
36 minutes ago, coevan said:

 

 

The analysts are all over the place on travel stocks. They have CCL as low as $5 and high as $50 for the next year. Morgan Stanley issue a sell and not very optimistic opinion. Who knows, I'm shocked at the Dow increase over the last 2 weeks, makes no sense,

Yea I read the analysts and mostly negative. Unfortunately I agree that demand will be lower. Also all the incentives to book going to hurt profits. Cruises on carnival low margin. You can't give away $600 each cruise and turn a profit. I own a large chunk of ccl not rcl, though rcl is giving away a lot of profits with lift and shift. People booked old ships 3k suites and moved to 12k suites on the newest ships. They finally said revenue stepped in and not all lift and shifts from old tubs to brand new ships is being allowed as easily. People gobbling up suites going to hurt their profit.

 

I got one more lift and shift to go and get approved before I want to say too much, but clearly giving away future profits ... the analysts are right, it could be 2023 before we see profits. 

 

But its ccl I own a bunch of and following. I just want ccl to survive, I'll be here in 5 years. But yea I read the analysts myself and tried not to grimace. Ouch.

Edited by firefly333

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2 minutes ago, ninjacat123 said:

"Group space", are you talking about social distancing, reducing the number of passengers, or something else? TIA!

 

Probably referring to groups.

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5 minutes ago, ninjacat123 said:

"Group space", are you talking about social distancing, reducing the number of passengers, or something else? TIA!

On another thread about discounted by buying cards I mentioned I could see discounted carnival prices on other sites. You didnt used to be allowed to discount carnival and publish lower prices in public so I was surprised to see it. 

 

Someone replied oh it's probably group space, and I decided to keep my mouth shut but it's not. Group space is where travel agents can grab a bunch of cabins and hold it at the price for groups. At some pt they have to give it back if they cant sell all the cabins they got at group rates. My own travel agent offered me some group prices. I can now book cheaper than his group space. You also often get extra obc on group cruises, say a extra $100 obc. If prices go up groups can be a good deal. Not in this time period lol, prices are dropping.

 

And the person knowingly saying oh it was probably group space when I said I bought a discounted august cruise doesnt know much about groups. I decided not to call attention to the discounting. But I see it on close in cruises too, so cannot be group space. Well past the date group space would be given back for a august cruise. There are discounted prices. Period. If carnival put up those prices then early saver rates could price match. Just saying i can see carnival is trying to fill ships. Without the super low prices they did early on. Right now it's important to fill ships and get cruisers confidence back up.

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1 hour ago, coevan said:

 

 

The analysts are all over the place on travel stocks. They have CCL as low as $5 and high as $50 for the next year. Morgan Stanley issue a sell and not very optimistic opinion. Who knows, I'm shocked at the Dow increase over the last 2 weeks, makes no sense,

 

I think the last part of your statement is very true, "it makes no sense."  It really doesn't make sense.  It is purely based on optimism, which is a good thing.  But, it certainly doesn't match what is going on in the overall economy, especially with another 1.9 million initial jobless claims this last week and over 20 million continuing claims.

I'm not as optimistic as some about Carnival stock.  Because of all the new stock issued during this time, I certainly cannot see it reaching anywhere near $50 in the next year or even few years.  Obviously a lot can happen and demand will probably come back quickly, but with all the cancelled cruise refunds, FCC and OBC liabilities out there, it is going to take some time for profitability again.  I'm also wondering if they will be able to do the limited start up on August 1 as planned.  I sold quite a bit of my Carnival shares today.  Maybe I'm wrong, but I see it falling again soon.  Maybe not as low as before, but perhaps to just over $10 if the startup is delayed on into the Fall or later.

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