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What level of infection is acceptable


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I do not have a cruise until next April, but I started wondering what level of covid infection would be acceptable and I would still go on a cruise?  For example, by my calculation there are some 300 cruises scheduled for August and September 2020 in the Caribbean.  From 3 days on up.  It seems to me, no matter what protocols are in place, there will be some level of infection on these cruises, just as there is, and will be, some level throughout the US.  So, what level would people find acceptable and still go on the cruise?

 

1.  Would it be one case on any cruise?

2.  Would it be only X% of all cruises, even if but one case?

3.  Would it be a number not to exceed X% on any and all ships?

4.  Or something else I have not considered?

 

I would love to hear your comments.

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This should be interesting to read everyone’s responses.  Cruises get blamed for Noro, even though it’s on dry land. I think the same will happen with COVID.   
 

It will be interesting so see what, if any backlash the theme parks get from COVID. It might give us an idea.  
 

In reality CDC will dictate what that standard is. 

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31 minutes ago, Bobal said:

Erm.....Didn't you consider zero cases as a choice?

 

What if we never get to zero?  (I am beginning to believe that is very possible.)

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Pretty much any combination of the choices you cite, if even in small quantities, will be the death knell for cruising.

I would guess that 70-90% of the general populace would not think of getting on a cruise in the current scenario.  I would think that something like 50% of people here, on a message board for cruise addicts, would not board a cruise now (myself included) for a variety of reasons. And we've sailed over 1200 days, including of almost 90 days in the 4 months mid October to mid March.

 

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8 minutes ago, KsucAts said:

 

What if we never get to zero?  (I am beginning to believe that is very possible.)

 

Perhaps I read it wrong, but I read the question to relate specifically to a cruise, since that's what the OP mentions, and not within the general population. I agree that we will probably never get to zero in the population.

 

Perhaps the OP could come back and explain

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I think we will know in another week  after the chaos with protesters. And we will know a lot more 2 weeks after Walt Disney World opens July 11. I had planned cruise for 5/2021 but have since changed to 9/2021. I'm a retired nurse and look at this with a different perspective.

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Infection is a vague term. There is no telling how many people have had it and did not know. Most have no idea and are walking around without knowing.

 

Some have mild symptoms and get over it quickly.

 

Do you mean someone who gets it and becomes very ill(ventilator)?

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1 minute ago, Bobal said:

 

Perhaps I read it wrong, but I read the question to relate specifically to a cruise, since that's what the OP mentions, and not within the general population. I agree that we will probably never get to zero in the population.

 

Perhaps the OP could come back and explain

Yeah, the original question confused me as well.  

 

I think we never get to 0 until we get true herd immunity.  That will take some time.  Until we get there, there will always be a risk of people with the virus that go undetected.  

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I don't plan on cruising until I'm vaccinated.  Our next cruise is April 2021, with a refundable deposit, so I can cancel it with no penalty. 

 

I'm hoping there will be a vaccine by then.

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In the US, we're dealing with a high frequency low severity (death rate type of disease.  Most cases are mild.  Many people are asymptomatic. As testing ramps up there are more positives registered but relative to tests a low inflection rate.  We know that social distancing worked early on, we know masks are a good thing in closed or crowded spaces. We don't know how the opening up of the country and the recent mass protests will affect us virus wise.  We don't know if there will be a second wave.  But we do know that hospitals now are able to handle that wave.

Cruise lines, like businesses opening up, can only do so much. 

But as others have said, the CDC, will determine to level of quarantine on cruise ships if needed.  Unless there is daily testing with quick results, I doubt many cruisers will know if they have been infected until after the cruise. And if you are infected, cruise and come home then find out you have COVID19, you're probably past the major period where you can inflect others.

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5 minutes ago, crewsweeper said:

And if you are infected, cruise and come home then find out you have COVID19, you're probably past the major period where you can inflect others.

Alternatively, you could join the 100,000+ Americans who have already died as a result of this ‘low severity’ disease.

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There is no way to predict what the answer will be for next April as there are too many unknowns.

 

 - will there be a vaccine

 - will there be an antiboby test

 - will there be treatments readily available

 - what will the death rate be in 9 months

 

There are reports from Italy that the virus is burning itself out.  The viral load in new patients is  a fraction of what it was months ago.

Another report of the same thing in early May where gene researchers were finding mutations very similar to SARS and MERS that basically mutated themselves out of existence.

 

What this disease is like today and the current protocols that we have in place wont be the same 9 months from now

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I have been cruising for quite a few years.  I am fairly healthy.  A number of times I've gotten a really horrible flu bug or cold - either during a cruise or directly after returning home from cruising.  And see that others on these Boards have reported being sick after a cruise.  But I still cruise knowing I could get sick - take precautions as much as possible.  The ship also takes preventive measures.  Maybe this is how I'm going to try to rationalize continuing to cruise.

NJ

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21 minutes ago, pcur said:

I don't plan on cruising until I'm vaccinated.  Our next cruise is April 2021, with a refundable deposit, so I can cancel it with no penalty. 

 

I'm hoping there will be a vaccine by then.

Many viruses never get a vaccine. Just because theres hype for a vaccine,it doesnt mean it will ever come. The reality is we need to live with this virus among other viruses we live with. Unless you just want to stop living. Focus on making your body healthy and resilient to infections. If your already unhealthy then yes you should be fearful. 

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13 minutes ago, Ourusualbeach said:

There is no way to predict what the answer will be for next April as there are too many unknowns.

 

 - will there be a vaccine

 - will there be an antiboby test

 - will there be treatments readily available

 - what will the death rate be in 9 months

 

There are reports from Italy that the virus is burning itself out.  The viral load in new patients is  a fraction of what it was months ago.

Another report of the same thing in early May where gene researchers were finding mutations very similar to SARS and MERS that basically mutated themselves out of existence.

 

What this disease is like today and the current protocols that we have in place wont be the same 9 months from now

The death rate for population is hardly anything. Cant get much lower. If you divide by age group of course it goes up but goes down for other age groups. But that goes for any virus/desease

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Sorry if I did not explain that well.  As I mentioned, I have a cruise in April.  I will be looking at the experience that happens between August and December to determine whether I make final payment.  So, I wondered what should I expect between August and December.  I think it unreasonable to assume out of the thousands of cruises in those 5 months no one will catch the virus on any cruise.  That somehow cruise ships will be totally immune to the virus.  Even giving strict protocols in place (which we do not yet know what they are).

 

So I wanted to get an idea whether folks thought there is some acceptable level of covid cases on cruise ships.  For some people, it would be zero, that is, they would not go on a cruise if a single person on a single ship came down with the virus.  I would not apply that test to my going on a cruise.  However, I have not determined what level I would accept.  For instance if less than 1% of people came down with the virus on less than 10% of cruises would that be OK.

 

So, I wanted to get an idea about how others on this board would look at this situation.  Hope that is a better explanation.

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1 hour ago, livingonthebeach said:

Would it be one case on any cruise?  Only if the one case is not me and the case is dropped off at the next port.

0% for the rest of the questions. 

And that’s is one of the main issues. I believe dropping off COVID19 sick passengers will be the cruise lines Achilles’ heel. 

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13 minutes ago, rtazz17 said:

The death rate for population is hardly anything. Cant get much lower. If you divide by age group of course it goes up but goes down for other age groups. But that goes for any virus/desease

I meant the death rate as a % of infected patients not of the population in general

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Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, partiamo said:

I would not apply that test to my going on a cruise.  However, I have not determined what level I would accept.  For instance if less than 1% of people came down with the virus on less than 10% of cruises would that be OK.

 

There is no way to determine whether one person or the whole ship would get it until you are actually on the ship and it happens.  To determine a guesstimate level, I suppose one would have look at the actual cases and death on land, and then apply that to a ship -- I don't know know how else you could know in advance a percentage and from that decide to cruise or not cruise.  With the new health protocols being worked on by the cruise industry, a cruise ship might be safer than other places where there are large gatherings. 

Edited by livingonthebeach
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7 minutes ago, Milwaukee Eight said:

And that’s is one of the main issues. I believe dropping off COVID19 sick passengers will be the cruise lines Achilles’ heel. 

 

That was intended in jest -- the OP didn't mention if the number / percentage included ourselves or not.  LOL

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