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What level of infection is acceptable


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17 minutes ago, partiamo said:

I think it unreasonable to assume out of the thousands of cruises in those 5 months no one will catch the virus on any cruise. 

You may be right but you also may never find out - neither the cruiseline (until the numbers get big enough to require it), nor likely the customer will announce that.

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14 minutes ago, livingonthebeach said:

If they start out with very short cruises don't think that will be enough time to determine if a person gets it on a ship. 


I think that is the current strategy.  Ignorance is bliss.  If they only have people onboard for 3-4 days they would need to rely on public health agencies or the passenger contacting the cruiselines that a previous passenger has become positive shortly after cruising and then contacting the couple thousand pax and seeing if there is a trend of many coming back positive shortly after the cruise.  Basically pass the buck and don’t do anything until it comes to your attention after disembarkation.  
 

The issue then becomes the back to back sailors.  That’s what got the grand princess in trouble was the people doing B2B that passed it onto the next group after the previous disembarked.  They may need to eliminate b2b as well.

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1 hour ago, KsucAts said:

 

What if we never get to zero?  (I am beginning to believe that is very possible.)

There will obviously be cruises with 0 cases.

 

It will be the cruises with any cases that get all the publicity 

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Just now, firefly333 said:

It will be the cruises with any cases that get all the publicity 

You could very easily have a few cases on a ship and no one else will ever know - just like you don't hear when just a few folks have noro or some other ailment.

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How much shipboard covid one is willing to accept is influenced by the number of risk factors that person possesses.  Being over 60 with high blood pressure and a touch of asthma I am less tolerant than my healthy millennial daughters. 

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3 minutes ago, rimmit said:


I think that is the current strategy.  Ignorance is bliss.  If they only have people onboard for 3-4 days they would need to rely on public health agencies or the passenger contacting the cruiselines that a previous passenger has become positive shortly after cruising and then contacting the couple thousand pax and seeing if there is a trend of many coming back positive shortly after the cruise.  Basically pass the buck and don’t do anything until it comes to your attention after disembarkation.  
 

The issue then becomes the back to back sailors.  That’s what got the grand princess in trouble was the people doing B2B that passed it onto the next group after the previous disembarked.  They may need to eliminate b2b as well.

 

Agree and IMHO only if strict health protocols are in place and virus numbers down to almost nil will they have longer cruises and B2Bs.   On the Q1 earnings call RCL announced shorter cruises targeted to the "drive" market (passengers living with short distances to ports) and shorter cruises for the restart of operations.

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Our concern is more about how it will be handled onboard rather than the number of cases. If they still quarantine everyone on the ship for 2 weeks or more if there is one positive case onboard, then we will not cruise again until Covid-19 is no longer an issue or they no longer quarantine the entire ship. We aren’t as worried about getting the virus as we are being stranded on the ship away from home, work, etc. because someone else tested positive.

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1 hour ago, sugcarol said:

I think we will know in another week  after the chaos with protesters. And we will know a lot more 2 weeks after Walt Disney World opens July 11. I had planned cruise for 5/2021 but have since changed to 9/2021. I'm a retired nurse and look at this with a different perspective.

 

If herd immunity hasn't started in the US after the week we've had I'm not sure it exists.

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4 minutes ago, Biker19 said:

You could very easily have a few cases on a ship and no one else will ever know - just like you don't hear when just a few folks have noro or some other ailment.

Of course, but there will surely be some cruises where there are none, at least known.

 

I'm just saying if there is a outbreak it will make the news. 

 

Carnival isnt picking its smaller shorter cruises to start. Its doing bigger ships with limited capacity. Whatever ships are regularly scheduled out of the 3 ports they decided to start with. Galveston has freedom and vista on 7 days and dream on 4 and 5 days. Dream class is bigger than freedom, which is conquest class. 

 

August 1st is still their targeted start date.

 

Freedom 14 day panama in nov is sold out, and 10 day panama out of mobile today went up in price. So people are booking the few longer cruises as well. 

 

I read rcl wants to start with smaller ships, I wish they would make a plan and announce it. 

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1 minute ago, JT1962 said:

Our concern is more about how it will be handled onboard rather than the number of cases.

You won't know that for a while - RCI may not provide details till something happens and then it may not look exactly like that on the ship. The "quarantine everyone on the ship for 2 weeks" was a Diamond Princess only thing - very unlikely that will ever be repeated.

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4 minutes ago, Big_G said:

 

If herd immunity hasn't started in the US after the week we've had I'm not sure it exists.

 

This isn't working out well for Sweden.

 

"new confirmed deaths per million people in Sweden is now nearly twice that of the US, and more than five-times that of France, which had the highest death rate in the world in April"

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/coronavirus-lockdown-sweden-death-rate-worst-country-covid-19-a9539206.html

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2 minutes ago, firefly333 said:

I'm just saying if there is a outbreak it will make the news. 

Of that you can be sure, even if the facts don't support it - passengers start a rumor, gets on social media and then the media pick it up and amplify it.

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7 minutes ago, flyguyjake said:

new confirmed deaths per million people in Sweden is now nearly twice that of the US, and more than five-times that of France, which had the highest death rate in the world in April"

image.png.bb2195edc6efbf0e7d76c71d98b5ec4a.png

 

^ that ranking has not changed much over the past two months - Sweden may have moved up a couple of spots.

Edited by Biker19
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10 minutes ago, Biker19 said:

You could very easily have a few cases on a ship and no one else will ever know - just like you don't hear when just a few folks have noro or some other ailment.


Agree, however, This works if there is no contact tracing.  Covid 19 is currently being treated like STDs and some other diseases in which of someone tests positive they are contacting close contacts.  If someone tests positive on land 2-3 days after a cruise....  well all bets are off as to what happens on the next cruise, especially if there is b2b passengers.
 

Noro has and never will be contact traced. 

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9 minutes ago, JT1962 said:

Our concern is more about how it will be handled onboard rather than the number of cases. If they still quarantine everyone on the ship for 2 weeks or more if there is one positive case onboard, then we will not cruise again until Covid-19 is no longer an issue or they no longer quarantine the entire ship. We aren’t as worried about getting the virus as we are being stranded on the ship away from home, work, etc. because someone else tested positive.

 

Yes those are very valid concerns.  The long quarantine time is a big issue for a lot of people.  I wouldn't want to be stuck in Coco Cay or anywhere in the Bahamas for 14 days after a 3 day cruise. 

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5 minutes ago, Biker19 said:

image.png.bb2195edc6efbf0e7d76c71d98b5ec4a.png

 

^ that ranking has not changed much over the past two months.


The article regarding Sweden was referring to the 7 day average.  Sweden’s rolling 7 day average of per capita deaths is higher than anyone not name “USA”

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8 minutes ago, flyguyjake said:

 

This isn't working out well for Sweden.

 

"new confirmed deaths per million people in Sweden is now nearly twice that of the US, and more than five-times that of France, which had the highest death rate in the world in April"

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/coronavirus-lockdown-sweden-death-rate-worst-country-covid-19-a9539206.html

 

Checked - as of today Sweden has 4, 468 deaths.   See comparison to other countries below on Covid-19 global count.

NJ 

 

https://www.bing.com/search?q=Coronavirus+statistics&tf=U2VydmljZT1HZW5lcmljQW5zd2VycyBTY2VuYXJpbz1Db3JvbmFWaXJ1c01MIFBvc2l0aW9uPVRPUCBSYW5raW5nRGF0YT1UcnVlIEZvcmNlUGxhY2U9VHJ1ZSBQYWlycz1zY246Q29yb25hVmlydXNNTDtzdGF0c19TY29wZTpXb3JsZDtzdGF0c19Jc0JyZWFrZG93bkV4cGFuZGVkOlRydWU7aW50ZW50OkNoZWNrQ29yb25hU3RhdHM7YWJvdmVuZXdzOlRydWU7IHw%3d&hs=3sYycStAVuElPwp0SO3hfTUhl7eJ03v4mUY1TdcmT1I%3d&FORM=COVIDR

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Just now, rimmit said:


The article regarding Sweden was referring to the 7 day average.  Sweden’s rolling 7 day average of per capita deaths is higher than anyone not name “USA”

Of course, they are in the different part of the bell curve, but the overall number is bit more indicative of whats going on. 

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4 minutes ago, Biker19 said:

Of course, they are in the different part of the bell curve, but the overall number is bit more indicative of whats going on. 


The 7 day rolling average is more indicative of what is currently happening and not historically.   Sweden is not bottoming out like most countries have started to, even the us.  They are just continuing to hover while all the other countries in Europe are getting to the end of their curves, they are stuck in limbo land.  They should be on the same curve as Sweden, Denmark and Norway, and they are basically done.  Instead the are just hovering.

Edited by rimmit
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My family and I love cruising and we can't wait to cruise again but this nasty covid really does make us think twice about cruising in the next few years. It's the unknown of how a persons body will fight the infection. Some don't ever know they've had it and some young and healthy die. It really is a per person illness not affecting any 2 alike. Yes those higher in age and with underlying conditions are hit much harder, but again even young healthy people are dying. And some who get sick, get extremely sick even if they don't need hospital care. I hate even a small head cold so I can't imagine struggling with covid.

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