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Serenity October MIA schedule

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Bellaggio Cruisers said:

I agree. We can not estimate any numbers for the fall. 
But...

Some of us are ready to start cruising again.
Some of us aren’t. 

Some of us have limited years left for cruising.

Some of us are willing to take a chance that it might be better in the fall.
Some of us aren’t 

All of us can cancel before final payment is due. 

We are adults and understand the statistics. We are capable to make our own decisions. 
We booked it and will wait and see. 
 

Nobody is telling you or anybody what to do.  I just find some of the pseudo-logic regarding this that I read here rather annoying.  If you want to cruise, and you don't care what is going on, and if you can afford it even if the refunds take 90+ days, go ahead.  Nobody is stopping you from booking a cruise, two cruises, or two hundred cruises.  However, I hope that premature start of cruising will not result in a huge spike of the coronavirus cases among older patients, which could entirely overwhelm the medical system to the point the point we have to actually set up a "death panel."

Edited by Psoque

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3 minutes ago, Psoque said:

Nobody is telling you or anybody what to do.  I just find some of the pseudo-logic regarding this that I read here rather annoying.  If you want to cruise, and you don't care what is going on, and if you can afford it even if the refunds take 90+ days, go ahead.  Nobody is stopping you from booking a cruise, two cruises, or two hundred cruises.  However, I hope that premature start of cruising will not result in a huge spike of the coronavirus cases among older patients, which could entirely overwhelm the medical system to the point the point we have to actually set up a "death panel."

Are you trying to scare me with the “death “panel” story?

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Just now, Bellaggio Cruisers said:

Are you trying to scare me with the “death “panel” story?

No.  I'm not.  Right now, about 50+ % of those on ventilators with this disease die, while those ventilated for some other conditions have a much better prognosis.  If we start running out of ventilators, we would have to prioritize the use of ventilators for those with the best prognosis.  That's one of the reasons some of us are very concerned about the potential surge of this outbreak which appears to be already occurring.

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1 minute ago, Psoque said:

No.  I'm not.  Right now, about 50+ % of those on ventilators with this disease die, while those ventilated for some other conditions have a much better prognosis.  If we start running out of ventilators, we would have to prioritize the use of ventilators for those with the best prognosis.  That's one of the reasons some of us are very concerned about the potential surge of this outbreak which appears to be already occurring.

 

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@Psoque, I share your concern about the current surge, which seems to be in large part due to a large percentage of the population not social distancing or wearing masks.  This is true both with the "reopening" as well as the civil unrest.  It seems that Americans are "fed up [with mitigation] and are not gonna take it any more," regardless of the consequences.

 

I wonder if they dismantled those military hospitals prematurely.

 

However, if cruises do resume and have any more on board episodes of COVID-19, I think the cruises will be shut down again much more quickly than before.  And it is likely that this will happen before we have anywhere near as many ships sailing as we did in Feb/March.  Plus, with the heightened awareness and presumably a robust onboard response plan, hopefully we will not have a repeat of what happened with several Princess ships.

 

Overall, if we run out of medical capacity (which could well happen at the rate we are going), IMO it will be more likely due to the infection rates that are already surging before any resumption of cruising.  Also, I think the spiking curves will make it less likely that cruising will resume any time soon.

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17 minutes ago, marienbad said:

 

I wondered what the source was for the 50% number you mentioned? Is that a current reference? Does that number apply to next October?

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25 minutes ago, marienbad said:

 

Just found this article from NPR:

 

 

New Evidence Suggests COVID-19 Patients On Ventilators Usually Survive

 
May 15, 20201:45 PM ET

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5 minutes ago, marienbad said:

Just found this article from NPR:

 

 

New Evidence Suggests COVID-19 Patients On Ventilators Usually Survive

 
May 15, 20201:45 PM ET

 

A month old article, really?

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1 minute ago, KenzSailing said:

 

A month old article, really?

 

1 minute ago, KenzSailing said:

 

A month old article, really

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You’re right of course. With things changing so quickly, I should not have quoted such old information.

i will refrain from that practice if others do so as well.

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Posted (edited)

Fellow travelers,

 

We all can be grateful that the medical industries, academia, and providers all around the globe are learning how we can best deal with covid19 in a faster and more collaborative way than usually is the case. I am a data scientist and at present work in the financial industry, but first was trained in biological science with focus on natural systems (not medicine). It's the members of my former department who are doing the modeling of Covid19 trends for the State of Illinois. It's my former colleagues in departments of biostatistics and health economics doing modeling for my state government. Covid19 model results vary widely. I am mostly seeing that places doing the good planning now are seeing fewer hospitalizations and deaths. Does anyone have absolute answers? No, but we get directional information (we can see the patterns in data that can help predict what to expect in the future and how to manage it now). 

 

I will bring and wear multiple masks if I travel this fall (trying to be coordinated with outfits) so I won't spread to others. If you won't wear a mask then I will limit exposure to you to lessen my own risks. I will bring a thermometer and a pulse oximeter so I can track my symptoms. I will as usual get good sleep, exercise & have some laughs, eat great food, drink wine, do distancing and handwashing, stay hydrated, and enjoy my vacation. I do expect there may be a few more kids on these trips with the offer but hope it's not hordes. I also expect more solos on board and people who are eager to try Crystal for the first time. So there will be some adjustments. I will bring stainless steel straws for drinking with a mask. It seems easy to attend lectures remotely or read or watch films and even trivia would be possible with masks. Vintage room may be not worth doing, alas. No disco or karaoke or sing alongs I guess. But paddle and table tennis may be okay and knitting while wearing masks (and straws for the ginger cosmos) and a walk on the promenade or just looking at the ocean are my pleasures onboard.

 

I wonder if bedazzled masks will be "a thing"? Or cross-stitched masks? If we sail - there's always fun to be had!

 

Go to a Jewelry fashion show, anyone?

(Photo is of the lovely Vanessa from staff of Apropos - it's not me!)

20190226_165605.jpg

Edited by mskatiemae

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BellagioCruisers...(have we cruised with you guys before)......we totally agree with you.  We have booked B2B on Serenity Oct 15-29.  We had two cruises cancelled for earlier this year.......on another cruise line.  We missed Indian Ocean (with a side trip to Taj Mahal) and another around Japan.  Like mskatiemae, we will take many extra precautions.......carrying our own hand sanitizer, masks, and medical equipment to keep tabs on our condition.  My husband is a doctor and that gives me some confidence in traveling.

 

Yes, it is a risk and maybe not for everyone.  I certainly hope this cruise is a go.  The price for a PS really grabbed our attention. The Caribbean is not one of my cruise favorites, but we enjoy time on the ship.  We will probably not go ashore at some of the ports.  

Stay safe, stay healthy

 

 

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We are booked on the 10/1/20-10/15/20 Serenity cruises.

look forward to it but anxiously await the safety precautions Crystal will take to enhance infection prevention and control.

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The 50+ % mortality rate of ventilated patients with this coronavirus infection is in the lower range of a series of studies published most recently.  There are people who are quoting rates lower than that but none of these quotes are based on actual published data, as far as I know.  I, however believe that mortality rates are highly dependent on patient selection factors...meaning that depending on the patient mix in the ICU.  As patient number were rapidly rising in NYC, for example, they had to pick and choose who most needed to be in the ICU, and also who most needed to be on the ventilator, so that resulted in more sicker (likely to die) patients occupying the ventilators in that scenario.

 

Also, there is very good data that age of the patient has a lot to do with the survival rate, which I think is very concerning for cruise lines like Crystal which traditionally catered to older population.

 

I am not saying that you should not book a cruise....but I read a lot of rationalizing going on here and that worries me, because that is really reflective on how the entire population is thinking.  Believe it or not, our greater desire to take a cruise, price of the cruise, whether we are a doctor or if we are married to a doctor....none of that changes individual or community risk of this outbreak becoming a bigger problem in the future.

 

Also, the data we have is by no way predictive of what could happen in October.  I guess a miracle could happen and the virus will just go away.  I don’t think it would happen, but I guess one can dream.  However, I am not counting on it and will be doing my part in minimizing the spread of the virus.

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After eight posts on this thread, we're pretty aware of how that person feels about upcoming cruises.   Probably four posts by anyone and a pretty clear picture develops.

 

Do I think the October cruises will happen?   Maybe 20% chance of it happening.   Financial risk is minimal, especially for those in Florida.  It's more a bet on whether Crystal will survive.   I think their terms are favorable for these bookings, so worth the risk.

 

For the health matters, common sense should prevail.   The toll this virus takes on the body in the aftermath concerns me more than death, or death rates.  

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31 minutes ago, saminina said:

After eight posts on this thread, we're pretty aware of how that person feels about upcoming cruises.   Probably four posts by anyone and a pretty clear picture develops.

 

Do I think the October cruises will happen?   Maybe 20% chance of it happening.   Financial risk is minimal, especially for those in Florida.  It's more a bet on whether Crystal will survive.   I think their terms are favorable for these bookings, so worth the risk.

 

For the health matters, common sense should prevail.   The toll this virus takes on the body in the aftermath concerns me more than death, or death rates.  

 

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I agree with you.

No sense of beating a dead horse.

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Posted (edited)
13 hours ago, Bellaggio Cruisers said:

Don’t feel bullied... do whatever your heart tells you!

Sorry for the late response, I have been busy with non corona virus discussions with mature adults.  Don’t worry about my being “bullied” I have seen enough responses from certain posters to determine their position on Crystal and cruising in general.  
 

I am definitely traveling and cruising ASAP!

Edited by TRIPACIAN
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Had there been a bit more humility from the experts early on, we might not be in this kind of argument right now.

 

Think back.  The "experts" were so certain, so full of authority and the mantra was "Follow the science".  Well, as we have all found out, that "science" was a cobbled together mixture of insufficient data, inaccurate data, faulty models and authoritarian mandates.  We were to not wear masks, wear masks, wear only certain masks, save masks for medical staff and who knows what else.  We were told that certain medications would work, others wouldn't, studies were pending, studies were flawed and so on. The virus lived on surfaces for 24 hours.  Or was it 4 hours.  Or was it 72 hours.  Or was it whatever fit the argument being made.  And above all, a climate of fear and control was spread.  "You're gonna kill Grandma"  "You have to protect others"  "Business needs to be shut down because otherwise you're all gonna DIE!"

 

We have a widely promoted study that "proved" that hydroxychloroquine was ineffective.  Then, the Lancet needed to retract that study when the qualifications of both the data and the authors was called into heavy question.  But the rush to political conclusions outweighed the need to review and verify the study.

 

Sadly, very little press attention has gone back to look at the accuracy of that data and of the resulting "models".  They have uniformly been wildly off base, even the ones that supposedly factored in social distancing and closures.  Nor has there been the kind of mea culpa that would restore trust in those very "experts" and in their "science".

 

Thus, it has become difficult for much of the population to have the same kind of blind faith in Fauci, Birx et al that they had several months ago.  Fool me once, shame on you.  Fool me twice, shame on me.

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46 minutes ago, FlyerTalker said:

Had there been a bit more humility from the experts early on, we might not be in this kind of argument right now.

 

Think back.  The "experts" were so certain, so full of authority and the mantra was "Follow the science".  Well, as we have all found out, that "science" was a cobbled together mixture of insufficient data, inaccurate data, faulty models and authoritarian mandates.  We were to not wear masks, wear masks, wear only certain masks, save masks for medical staff and who knows what else.  We were told that certain medications would work, others wouldn't, studies were pending, studies were flawed and so on. The virus lived on surfaces for 24 hours.  Or was it 4 hours.  Or was it 72 hours.  Or was it whatever fit the argument being made.  And above all, a climate of fear and control was spread.  "You're gonna kill Grandma"  "You have to protect others"  "Business needs to be shut down because otherwise you're all gonna DIE!"

 

We have a widely promoted study that "proved" that hydroxychloroquine was ineffective.  Then, the Lancet needed to retract that study when the qualifications of both the data and the authors was called into heavy question.  But the rush to political conclusions outweighed the need to review and verify the study.

 

Sadly, very little press attention has gone back to look at the accuracy of that data and of the resulting "models".  They have uniformly been wildly off base, even the ones that supposedly factored in social distancing and closures.  Nor has there been the kind of mea culpa that would restore trust in those very "experts" and in their "science".

 

Thus, it has become difficult for much of the population to have the same kind of blind faith in Fauci, Birx et al that they had several months ago.  Fool me once, shame on you.  Fool me twice, shame on me.

Seems like you need to go on a cruise!

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While there is truth to the statement that there are lies, damned lies and statistics, I think that sometimes our expectations from the scientific community during the pandemic are very unrealistic.  The scientific community has been put in a tough position and have been asked to provide guidance with sometimes limited data in a very short period of time.   Mistakes or errors will be made on occassion, especially in the early stages of the pandemic.   I for one will still follow the guidance of the scientific community when I travel or do other things.  While I do not have blind faith in the scientific community,  I do place more trust in them than I do with the politicians.  

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10 hours ago, Robb said:

BellagioCruisers...(have we cruised with you guys before)......we totally agree with you.  We have booked B2B on Serenity Oct 15-29.  We had two cruises cancelled for earlier this year.......on another cruise line.  We missed Indian Ocean (with a side trip to Taj Mahal) and another around Japan.  Like mskatiemae, we will take many extra precautions.......carrying our own hand sanitizer, masks, and medical equipment to keep tabs on our condition.  My husband is a doctor and that gives me some confidence in traveling.

 

Yes, it is a risk and maybe not for everyone.  I certainly hope this cruise is a go.  The price for a PS really grabbed our attention. The Caribbean is not one of my cruise favorites, but we enjoy time on the ship.  We will probably not go ashore at some of the ports.  

Stay safe, stay healthy

 

 

Sorry we are not on the same cruise. Would love to see both of you again...

sheila

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, TRIPACIAN said:

Seems like you need to go on a cruise!

 

Comment deleted after clarification posted.

Edited by FlyerTalker

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