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Well looks like we are looking at oct.


bikerunner
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3 hours ago, UnorigionalName said:

 

US is first in line.  pouring money everywhere.  The manufacturing of the astrezeneca vaccine is i believe more straightforward than the moderna vaccine.  They are pouring crazy money in and plan to have several hundred million doses is what they report by like winter.  US is fronting all the money, so they've claimed the first several hundred million.  They've said will give to health care workers and front line responders first.  But I believe they are building out manufacturing for billions worth of doses, so it should be fairly rapid for everyone else.

Or more likely rich celebrities and rich professional athletes first like what happened with the testing when it first became available.

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On 6/16/2020 at 6:00 PM, gordylad said:

Well we love cruising but we dont fancy being guinea pigs on the first sailings back so reckon we will take a rain check until next year.............

 

100% - we postponed our January 2021 cruise until April and even then I’m wondering if that will be a go.

Our April cruise is dependent on travel advisories being lifted (affects medical insurance - to be covered, or not be covered) and how Asia / Canada is doing at that time.    We won’t go if we are not covered (insurance) and / or if we have to quarantine for 2 weeks after returning from the trip.  44 weeks to go - a lot can happen (or not happen) in that period of time.

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On 6/18/2020 at 12:47 PM, dandee2 said:

Can't wait to see how they will distribute the avccine. travellers will not be in the first batch.

Although considering that many cruise travelers are 60+, many of them may in fact be in the second batch.  Although that does nothing for the crew, who are largely much younger.  Wonder how that will be handled.    They also are not sure which of the vaccines may be appropriate for us seniors - some of them reportedly aren't expected to be that effective for older people although they are working to correct that issue.  But as for me, I'd be willing to travel with a less than perfect vaccine if it meant I might get sick, but if I did it would likely be a mild case.  But this is all just speculation at this point.  

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On 6/18/2020 at 4:40 PM, dandee2 said:

 So 330 000 000 millions doses of vaccine (if one dose only needed) at (lets say) 1 000 000 people a day = 1 year
The US will need an army of nurses just to give the shots. Logistical nightmare.

 

 

Well, if they can determine that exposure gives you immunity and that immunity lasts long enough then that will mean fewer doses needed, initially anyway, seeing as the way it's going now, probably half the country will have been exposed by the time a vaccine is ready.

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Based on guidelines released by Costa who are part of Carnival group which likely other lines will also follow think I’ll move my November cruise to next year. There’s no way I want to wear a mask in all public places on board. It can only be removed when seated to eat or on pool deck. 

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On 6/18/2020 at 8:57 PM, UnorigionalName said:

 

US is first in line.  pouring money everywhere.  The manufacturing of the astrezeneca vaccine is i believe more straightforward than the moderna vaccine.  They are pouring crazy money in and plan to have several hundred million doses is what they report by like winter.  US is fronting all the money, so they've claimed the first several hundred million.  They've said will give to health care workers and front line responders first.  But I believe they are building out manufacturing for billions worth of doses, so it should be fairly rapid for everyone else.


It is all very well having millions of doses manufactured and sitting in a tank of liquid. What everyone over looks is you to have to have capacity to manufacture sterile glass vaccine syringes and have have capacity at a third party filling unit to fill the syringes. That is a logistical nightmare, especially when these filling plants have to sidetrack their day to day mainstream work. 
Distribution is more straightforward, having a team of medics qualified to deliver in the right time scale isn’t easy either.

And don’t forget at every medical unit delivering treatment of the vaccine they have to have Anaphylactic Kits on standby in case of a reaction, are they stockpiled? 

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9 hours ago, Dylandude said:

What everyone over looks is you to have to have capacity to manufacture sterile glass vaccine syringes

While the public focus is on the development and production of a viable vaccine, and rightly so, don't assume that "everyone" has overlooked the many steps that lie between production and actual vaccinations. Just a small example: the Canadian government announced at the beginning of June that it had "begun procuring the supplies that will be essential for 'mass vaccinations' in the event that a vaccine is found for COVID-19, starting with signing a contract for 37 million syringes."  https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/anticipating-mass-vaccinations-canada-ordering-millions-of-syringes-1.4965078

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5 minutes ago, Fouremco said:

While the public focus is on the development and production of a viable vaccine, and rightly so, don't assume that "everyone" has overlooked the many steps that lie between production and actual vaccinations. Just a small example: the Canadian government announced at the beginning of June that it had "begun procuring the supplies that will be essential for 'mass vaccinations' in the event that a vaccine is found for COVID-19, starting with signing a contract for 37 million syringes."  https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/anticipating-mass-vaccinations-canada-ordering-millions-of-syringes-1.4965078

Did they contract 5ml, 10ml or 20ml syringes?
How can they order syringes without knowing the dose?

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25 minutes ago, Fouremco said:

While the public focus is on the development and production of a viable vaccine, and rightly so, don't assume that "everyone" has overlooked the many steps that lie between production and actual vaccinations. Just a small example: the Canadian government announced at the beginning of June that it had "begun procuring the supplies that will be essential for 'mass vaccinations' in the event that a vaccine is found for COVID-19, starting with signing a contract for 37 million syringes."  https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/anticipating-mass-vaccinations-canada-ordering-millions-of-syringes-1.4965078

There are other methods of delivery systems being researched for the vaccine, this is one:

https://www.ucdavis.edu/coronavirus/news/covid-19-vaccine-patch-delivery-technology-enters-preclinical-testing-uc-davis/

 

 

Another is the vaccine in pill form

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11 minutes ago, Dylandude said:

Did they contract 5ml, 10ml or 20ml syringes?
How can they order syringes without knowing the dose?

No idea, that's not my area of expertise. I was simply pointing out that not everyone has overlooked the requirement for syringes.

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5 minutes ago, C-Dragons said:

There are other methods of delivery systems being researched for the vaccine, this is one:

https://www.ucdavis.edu/coronavirus/news/covid-19-vaccine-patch-delivery-technology-enters-preclinical-testing-uc-davis/

Thanks, that's an interesting article. After many attempts to give up smoking, I finally succeeded with the patch some 30+ years ago.

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18 minutes ago, C-Dragons said:

There are other methods of delivery systems being researched for the vaccine, this is one:

https://www.ucdavis.edu/coronavirus/news/covid-19-vaccine-patch-delivery-technology-enters-preclinical-testing-uc-davis/

 

 

Another is the vaccine in pill form

 

10 years from now. Maybe. Novel vaccine with a novel delivery method. The two lead candidates are already novel vaccines (methods that have never been approved in humans by any regulatory agency). That's a high enough hurdle. Adding a novel delivery system for a vaccine? It's a (interesting) research project, something that's been discussed off an on for years, but not now and not for this virus.

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19 minutes ago, markeb said:

 

10 years from now. Maybe. Novel vaccine with a novel delivery method. The two lead candidates are already novel vaccines (methods that have never been approved in humans by any regulatory agency). That's a high enough hurdle. Adding a novel delivery system for a vaccine? It's a (interesting) research project, something that's been discussed off an on for years, but not now and not for this virus.

They’re already working on it. They need to find an alternative to syringes due to the “broken cold chain problem” as another article described it. Many areas in the world do not have enough refrigeration and the vaccine would need to be kept cold before administration. The patch would solve this problem.

Other articles regarding this:


https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/25/success-covid-19-vaccine-hinge-on-delivery/

 

https://www.ondrugdelivery.com/topic/covid-19/

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2 minutes ago, C-Dragons said:

They’re already working on it. They need to find an alternative to syringes due to the “broken cold storage problem” as another article described it. Many areas in the world do not have enough refrigeration and the vaccine would need to be kept cold before administration. The patch would solve this problem.

 

It's a great idea for all those reasons, but...

 

Even if they use the same antigens, it will be a different formulation, therefore a different vaccine. They "may" be able to do bridging studies from an approved, traditional vaccine. At a minimum, they'll have to do studies to demonstrate non-inferiority (actual FDA terminology). They could easily have to do much more. up to and including a large scale Phase III study. The two lead candidates may not be amenable to their production methods (one is Messenger RNA and the other is an adenovirus vectored vaccine) so this could be another candidate completely. The places where cold chain matters aren't places that will pay a lot for a novel vaccine; it's probably cheaper for Gates, etc., to buy a lot of lithium ion batteries and cool boxes than to license a different vaccine. And this is still in a university (i.e., relatively early research) phase. Most of those candidates never get beyond that stage.

 

Wishing them luck, but not holding my breath.

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1 hour ago, Fouremco said:

While the public focus is on the development and production of a viable vaccine, and rightly so, don't assume that "everyone" has overlooked the many steps that lie between production and actual vaccinations. Just a small example: the Canadian government announced at the beginning of June that it had "begun procuring the supplies that will be essential for 'mass vaccinations' in the event that a vaccine is found for COVID-19, starting with signing a contract for 37 million syringes."  https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/anticipating-mass-vaccinations-canada-ordering-millions-of-syringes-1.4965078

Exactly.  It's not like they are going to wait for a vaccine to be available and then start planning for how to distribute it.  I understand our planning (US) overall has been lacking in any areas to say the least, but while we can't fix the past we can do better in the future.  I have faith that planning is well underway.

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1 hour ago, Dylandude said:

Did they contract 5ml, 10ml or 20ml syringes?
How can they order syringes without knowing the dose?

The same way they are ramping up production on millions of doses of a potential vaccine without being 100% sure it will even work yet.  They produce materials that may not be needed.  Companies stand to make millions (make that probably billions) of dollars by being first in line to provide vaccines and vaccine delivery methods to the public and/or the governments.

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4 minutes ago, phoenix_dream said:

The same way they are ramping up production on millions of doses of a potential vaccine without being 100% sure it will even work yet.  They produce materials that may not be needed.  Companies stand to make millions (make that probably billions) of dollars by being first in line to provide vaccines and vaccine delivery methods to the public and/or the governments.


Manufacturing of pharmaceuticals is relatively cheap. R&D costs many millions, and the cost of the drug reflects the cost of the R&D. 
When comes to forward thinking countries,  the cost of the drug is matched to the volume of usage, which makes the drug relatively cheap, think Canada and UK, not the USA.

 

My point at the outset was that everyone thinks once a vaccine is discovered that the whole COVID 19 fiasco will be a walk in the park, the rich get a dose quick the poor at the end of the line. Think again, the whole vaccination process (once discovered) is a logistical nightmare world wide, especially when it comes to fair and disproportionate distribution of the product.

 

My final point on this is, it took 9 years to find a vaccine for Ebola and they haven’t yet got one for SARS yet.

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4 hours ago, Dylandude said:

My point at the outset was that everyone thinks once a vaccine is discovered that the whole COVID 19 fiasco will be a walk in the park, the rich get a dose quick the poor at the end of the line. Think again, the whole vaccination process (once discovered) is a logistical nightmare world wide, especially when it comes to fair and disproportionate distribution of the product.

 

I think that the point you are trying to make suffers from your ongoing use of the word "everyone". While I agree that "some" people may think that everything will be a walk in the park when and if a viable vaccine is developed and approved for use, there are many more who have a realistic sense of the magnitude of the logistics that lie ahead.  

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10 hours ago, Dylandude said:


Manufacturing of pharmaceuticals is relatively cheap. R&D costs many millions, and the cost of the drug reflects the cost of the R&D. 
When comes to forward thinking countries,  the cost of the drug is matched to the volume of usage, which makes the drug relatively cheap, think Canada and UK, not the USA.

 

My point at the outset was that everyone thinks once a vaccine is discovered that the whole COVID 19 fiasco will be a walk in the park, the rich get a dose quick the poor at the end of the line. Think again, the whole vaccination process (once discovered) is a logistical nightmare world wide, especially when it comes to fair and disproportionate distribution of the product.

 

My final point on this is, it took 9 years to find a vaccine for Ebola and they haven’t yet got one for SARS yet.

Actual they have several vaccine candidates for SARS.  The reason they do not have a vaccine is there are no SARS patients, no SARS outbreak, no way to test and confirm the vaccine.  When you stop an outbreak like SARS and MERS relatively quickly you will not get a vaccine because the illness was  not around long enough to test and approve one. But then again you do not need one.

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On 6/21/2020 at 2:37 AM, Dylandude said:


It is all very well having millions of doses manufactured and sitting in a tank of liquid. What everyone over looks is you to have to have capacity to manufacture sterile glass vaccine syringes and have have capacity at a third party filling unit to fill the syringes. That is a logistical nightmare, especially when these filling plants have to sidetrack their day to day mainstream work. 
Distribution is more straightforward, having a team of medics qualified to deliver in the right time scale isn’t easy either.

And don’t forget at every medical unit delivering treatment of the vaccine they have to have Anaphylactic Kits on standby in case of a reaction, are they stockpiled? 

They could go old school and not use pre-filled single dose syringes.  Just bulk vaccine in multiple doses in sterile vials.  Use the traditional syringes with disposable needles.  

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