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8 minutes ago, PTC DAWG said:

I've cruised before, will cruise again when they are going.  Current prices are higher for sure for next year and forward..time will tell if that sticks.  

 

Other than wearing a mask, not doing it.  Period.  

 

Do you mean you won't cruise because you have to wear a mask??  

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On 6/22/2020 at 7:07 AM, ECCruise said:

There is no way they will be able to sustain these comedic prices unless a whole new cadre of neophyte (and totally unaware) consumers fall out of the woodwork.  Who, BTW, are not laid off, or on furlough, or had their business go belly up, or their retirement plan decimated.  Anyone who thinks this economic situation will magically melt away lives in a dream world.

 

The onus for this mess is on the cruise industry alone.  They were the ones who thought the party would never end, building overcapacity with every new build, while places to sail even the current ships became overburdened.  Cuts to the quality of the product with no break.  Who continued to raise executive pay while they loaded on debt (long before the COVID-19 issue).  Who built up literally nothing in cash reserves.

 

Their future costs have nothing to do with what the value of their product is.  If the value of a bottle of ketchup is $1.50, consumers are not suddenly going to start paying $3.00 or $4.00 a bottle because the ketchup manufacturer made stupid economic or marketing mistakes.  They will stop buying ketchup.

This is true, however if due to new debt and other factors the manufacturer's cost to make a bottle of ketchup has risen, they may very well have to sell it for $3-$4 in order to stay in business.

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On 6/22/2020 at 10:35 AM, Fouremco said:

The question is, how much more expensive? Any reasonable consumer is willing to adjust to reasonable increases, but if the cruise industry thinks that it can recoup its losses in just a few years by jacking up prices far beyond what is reasonable for the average cruise passenger, then I think that they are in for a big surprise. 

 

The second part of your sentence suggests that you foresee a return to the early days of cruising, when only the very wealthy could afford to do so. Unfortunately, that model is no longer viable given number of cruise lines, the number of ships and the ships' capacities. Cruise lines have embraced the notion of Everyman as a potential passenger, and it's too late to revert to marketing for the very wealthy alone.

the future of cruising is very much up in air.  I wouldn't rule anything out - including cruise lines going out of business or shifting to expensive luxury sailings because mass-market cruising is no longer cost effective. 

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Just now, mnocket said:

This is true, however if due to new debt and other factors the manufacturer's cost to make a bottle of ketchup has risen, they may very well have to sell it for $3-$4 in order to stay in business.

That is exactly my point. 

There will be some not very savvy people will buy it.  Or people with ketchup fetish. Many will buy something else.  Mayonnaise. Mustard.  Others will simply not buy anything at all.

Same as idiotic cruise prices.  Some neophytes or really desperate people will ante up.  Many will substitute other forms of travel.  And still others will simply not travel at all. 

And yes, if that is not enough to sustain them, they very well may go out of business.  It is not that unusual in the world of economics and business.

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13 minutes ago, ECCruise said:

That is exactly my point. 

There will be some not very savvy people will buy it.  Or people with ketchup fetish. Many will buy something else.  Mayonnaise. Mustard.  Others will simply not buy anything at all.

Same as idiotic cruise prices.  Some neophytes or really desperate people will ante up.  Many will substitute other forms of travel.  And still others will simply not travel at all. 

And yes, if that is not enough to sustain them, they very well may go out of business.  It is not that unusual in the world of economics and business.

I think we find ourselves in complete agreement😃

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It's only gets worse. With all the fccs out there, plus many more after today's announcement of no more cruises until at least September, causes a big swing for supply vs demand. Add on to that, the fact is, when the ban is lifted, they'll be less ships and less passengers allowed on the ships that are sailing' again supply vs demand. Be ready to pay much higher prices for a less than stellar experience. The changes dictated by the virus plus the lines trying to pay back the massive debt they accumulated during the shutdown will see to that.

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We have gone though two cancelled cruises - one a river cruise through France and the other a B2B Med/TA this coming Fall.  Refunds of $20K still pending, and pending.  Another cruise scheduled for winter on Connie whose refurbishment and repositioning is "delayed."  $2K pending there, as well, but no formal cancelation yet.  

 

We enjoy cruising to unique and fun destinations and have set foot on all 7 continents, traveled north and south of the Summer and Winter Solstices, visited the Galapagos and safaried across the Masai and Serengeti, lived in eastern Europe during its Soviet period, walked the Great Wall and Hadrian's Wall, and driven 60K kms around Europe (a lot for an American).  We are still interested in good travel options and hopefully cruising will continue to provide some of those options.  However, it doesn't appear that cruise lines are dong themselves any favors with how they are treating past guests and looking for new.  Yes - I expect prices to climb significantly for good cruises on good ships.  Port fees and insurance will also increase significantly.  Likely salaries of crews will also increase to keep the good people in light of all the health dangers.  "Cruising" will change.  Cruise lines will have to accommodate the changes to cater to fewer people, more globally travel experienced people, and people who can afford to spend monies cruising.  Most of the "cheap" cruising for partying will be very limited and may be disappear.  Overall, likely a better cruising experience for those who can afford it. 

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4 minutes ago, Ride-The-Waves said:

We have gone though two cancelled cruises - one a river cruise through France and the other a B2B Med/TA this coming Fall.  Refunds of $20K still pending, and pending.  Another cruise scheduled for winter on Connie whose refurbishment and repositioning is "delayed."  $2K pending there, as well, but no formal cancelation yet.  

 

We enjoy cruising to unique and fun destinations and have set foot on all 7 continents, traveled north and south of the Summer and Winter Solstices, visited the Galapagos and safaried across the Masai and Serengeti, lived in eastern Europe during its Soviet period, walked the Great Wall and Hadrian's Wall, and driven 60K kms around Europe (a lot for an American).  We are still interested in good travel options and hopefully cruising will continue to provide some of those options.  However, it doesn't appear that cruise lines are dong themselves any favors with how they are treating past guests and looking for new.  Yes - I expect prices to climb significantly for good cruises on good ships.  Port fees and insurance will also increase significantly.  Likely salaries of crews will also increase to keep the good people in light of all the health dangers.  "Cruising" will change.  Cruise lines will have to accommodate the changes to cater to fewer people, more globally travel experienced people, and people who can afford to spend monies cruising.  Most of the "cheap" cruising for partying will be very limited and may be disappear.  Overall, likely a better cruising experience for those who can afford it. 

 

Indeed the rich who can really travel ( seems like you are part of that 1% ) will still get to travel when this all settles down. 

 

 

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3 hours ago, chipmaster said:

 

Indeed the rich who can really travel ( seems like you are part of that 1% ) will still get to travel when this all settles down. 

 

 

No, we are not.  I'm served in uniform for 30 years and another 12 as a DoD civilian.  My wife has 43 years of Federal service with her highest pay scale as a GS-09.  Hardly your 1 percent.  We have been fortunate to be assigned overseas and travel from those locations in addition to saving for cruises and excursions, like to Africa, South America and Oceana.  

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18 minutes ago, Ride-The-Waves said:

No, we are not.  I'm served in uniform for 30 years and another 12 as a DoD civilian.  My wife has 43 years of Federal service with her highest pay scale as a GS-09.  Hardly your 1 percent.  We have been fortunate to be assigned overseas and travel from those locations in addition to saving for cruises and excursions, like to Africa, South America and Oceana.  

 

Ah lifer goverment, two with near 100% salary in retirement is pretty sweet, congratulations.

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12 minutes ago, chipmaster said:

 

Ah lifer goverment, two with near 100% salary in retirement is pretty sweet, congratulations.

Hardly 100 percent, but it is providing a comfortable and secure retirement enabling us to continue traveling...at least pre-COVID-19.  Contrary to those who early on suggested moving to the private sector because salaries were so much better...

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3 minutes ago, Ride-The-Waves said:

Hardly 100 percent, but it is providing a comfortable and secure retirement enabling us to continue traveling...at least pre-COVID-19.  Contrary to those who early on suggested moving to the private sector because salaries were so much better...

 

I agree everything in life is a choice, nothing is free, be it career, be it family, be it job/occupation/career, all about choices, even vacation; cruise-land 🙂

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6 hours ago, PTC DAWG said:

I think this may be why they tweaked the Equinox 10 and 11 day cruises to 9 and 12 day cruises...they flat out refused to "lift and shift" my 10 day to the 9....ABC Island Cruise...very disappointed in Celebrity in this regard.  

Keep trying if you already have not done anything we where able to flip and switch our 10 night Equinox (9/4)to the 9 night (8/27)!
 A lot of going from manager to manager but it happened and we are booked for next year. Ask for Resolutions  department!

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At least three things will keep prices high for now. Lots of FCC's floating around, availability of lift and shift, and no indication of any certainty for when operations may resume.

 

It makes no sense to start dropping prices on future cruises to create a crush of booking to have to eventually cancel them, issue FCC's. This also avoids people gaming the system by booking now and then immediately pushing the cruise out another year to take advantage of the lower price. 

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3 minutes ago, Jeremiah1212 said:

At least three things will keep prices high for now. Lots of FCC's floating around, availability of lift and shift, and no indication of any certainty for when operations may resume.

 

It makes no sense to start dropping prices on future cruises to create a crush of booking to have to eventually cancel them, issue FCC's. This also avoids people gaming the system by booking now and then immediately pushing the cruise out another year to take advantage of the lower price. 

 

Who is finding lower prices a year out?  Not me!

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16 hours ago, Ride-The-Waves said:

No, we are not.  I'm served in uniform for 30 years and another 12 as a DoD civilian.  My wife has 43 years of Federal service with her highest pay scale as a GS-09.  Hardly your 1 percent.  We have been fortunate to be assigned overseas and travel from those locations in addition to saving for cruises and excursions, like to Africa, South America and Oceana.  

Thank you for your service. 

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