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Are you afraid of RCI going belly up?


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40 minutes ago, Milwaukee Eight said:

I look at this situation in a different way. The positive numbers are a political tool and mean nothing to me. It’s the numbers who are hospitalized, in ICU, and die. 

I personally haven’t seen any data with a drastic increase in hospitalizations, ICU, and deaths. In the winter time, we often have shortage of beds but it is managed. 
 

The more people positive and Asymptomatic, the faster we reach herd immunity. 
 

There are still areas of concern. The long term care facilities are an issue for sure and I believe I saw something that said 80% of deaths are in these facilities along with the elderly. No death is good. Some of these facilities have hospice patients that a near end of life and very susceptible to having issues with CV19. 
 

We rode today to a Restaurant Bar & Grill on a lake with a beach. Place was packed and didn’t see one mask. We pass many farm hand worker camps. People are packed into these places. Almost 50% of the people in most of those camps are positive. 
 

Let’s hope we don’t get a rush on the hospitals. Let’s hope we all come out of this. We plan to cancel our cruise in October before final payment and take the FCC. 
 

Peace

 

M8

Dang Troy you are making sense.  I think that is against forum rules.🤣

 

jc

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52 minutes ago, Milwaukee Eight said:

Place was packed and didn’t see one mask.

Packed as in no social distancing or packed as in all seats full with social distancing in place?  You could go to any number of restaurants in the parts of NY in phase 3 and not find a seat, and also find nobody wearing a mask since no mask is required when sitting at your table.

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On 6/20/2020 at 8:09 AM, baldilocks said:

A new wrinkle in RCI finances. Information has just been released that the German company Wirecard cannot explain why $2.1 billion dollars is missing from their accounts. Wirecard is the company that RCI uses to pay their employees. Almost all the employees have Wirecard accounts, including savings accounts. I'm sure that if this gets nasty, RCI is going to be on the hook for some dollar amount as they are the ones that hired Wirecard. Note: Carnival does not use Wirecard.

 

Now it seems like the $2.1 billion might not have been a problem after all?

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Given the amount of debt the cruise lines are accumulating I think they will all go bankrupt.  Some will restructure and some will go away.  Someday they will need to pay off the massive debt they are accumulating and I'm not sure that any cruise line really has a plan.  After the first one goes bankrupt and restructures they will have a much lower operating cost because they won't have the debt that the other cruise lines are struggling to pay and they will be able to operate at lower fares.  The other lines will try to compete but they won't be able to operate profitably and then they will go bankrupt.  There will be some passengers that lose their deposits for future cruises but the big losers will be the countries that finance the ships, the shipyards and the banks.  This will likely take 3 - 4 years to finally settle down. 

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58 minutes ago, ipeeinthepool said:

Given the amount of debt the cruise lines are accumulating I think they will all go bankrupt.  Some will restructure and some will go away.  Someday they will need to pay off the massive debt they are accumulating and I'm not sure that any cruise line really has a plan.  After the first one goes bankrupt and restructures they will have a much lower operating cost because they won't have the debt that the other cruise lines are struggling to pay and they will be able to operate at lower fares.  The other lines will try to compete but they won't be able to operate profitably and then they will go bankrupt.  There will be some passengers that lose their deposits for future cruises but the big losers will be the countries that finance the ships, the shipyards and the banks.  This will likely take 3 - 4 years to finally settle down. 

 

Your post makes some sense, but that hardly explains why Kmart no longer exists?  If getting rid of debt suddenly makes you profitable then why doesn’t it work for most other companies?  That said it has worked for airlines because there is always one out there that can get a loan and buy the broke companies cheap while accumulating more debt.  I think your analysis has merit, but I think you are missing a key part of why some companies succeed and others disappear.  The ones who survive offer something different or better quite often.  IE you are only focusing on the cost side of the economic equation, the demand side is significant, how else can you explain the success of Apple?  It is not like they are offering better chips in their products (they all use the same tech pretty much).  It is because they do things in such a way people are willing to pay a premium.

 

IE cost is only half of the discussion.

 

jc

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16 minutes ago, xpcdoojk said:

 

Your post makes some sense, but that hardly explains why Kmart no longer exists?  If getting rid of debt suddenly makes you profitable then why doesn’t it work for most other companies?  That said it has worked for airlines because there is always one out there that can get a loan and buy the broke companies cheap while accumulating more debt.  I think your analysis has merit, but I think you are missing a key part of why some companies succeed and others disappear.  The ones who survive offer something different or better quite often.  IE you are only focusing on the cost side of the economic equation, the demand side is significant, how else can you explain the success of Apple?  It is not like they are offering better chips in their products (they all use the same tech pretty much).  It is because they do things in such a way people are willing to pay a premium.

 

IE cost is only half of the discussion.

 

jc

 

You are certainly correct that in order to succeed, the company has to offer a product that consumers want to buy.  However I'll suggest that there really isn't a huge difference between cruise lines.  Although there are slight variations, there is tremendous overlap between the cruise lines.  Although there are loyalists, many cruisers easily switch between cruise lines, so there will be a lot of passengers switching to the less expensive cruise line to go to a nearly identical itinerary.  I'll continue to suggest that we may see the bankruptcy domino effect.

 

 As far as Kmart is concerned, there are probably a number of reasons why Kmart failed but in a word the biggest effect might be Walmart.  Walmart offered similar products at cheaper prices and the customers left Kmart.  I suspect cruise passengers will do the same.

 

It will be an interesting next few years.

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11 hours ago, Milwaukee Eight said:

The more people positive and Asymptomatic, the faster we reach herd immunity. 


Whats the latest on immunity? The last scientific information (rather than forum chat) I read was that they had concerns over the longevity of natural immunity after recovering. They feared it was months rather than years. 

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1 hour ago, Billy Baltic said:


Whats the latest on immunity? The last scientific information (rather than forum chat) I read was that they had concerns over the longevity of natural immunity after recovering. They feared it was months rather than years. 

 

Nobody knows.  That said.  The flu is still bad but because our systems have seen similar strains in the past, the effects are less dramatic than they would be otherwise for many people who become infected.  At least that is the theory that I have heard.

 

jc

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2 hours ago, Billy Baltic said:


Whats the latest on immunity? The last scientific information (rather than forum chat) I read was that they had concerns over the longevity of natural immunity after recovering. They feared it was months rather than years. 

I’m not sure there is enough information yet to know. 
 

M8

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Even if they go through bankruptcy restructuring it shouldn’t change any future bookings or deposits already made. That’s not the purpose of the restructuring... People go into panic mode when they hear bankruptcy even though it’s common. Airlines have done it many times over. Do you recall people saying their flights were canceled and not refunded? Most people probably didn’t even realized a bankruptcy restructure even occurred and flights they had booked continued as is.

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CCL's credit rating cut to junk, money is going to get real tight with all the lines.

 

Ratings agency Standard & Poor's on Tuesday downgraded bonds of Carnival Corp(CCL) to junk status, forecasting continued weak demand for the cruise industry hammered by the COVID-19 pandemic.

As virus infections climbed, travel-linked stocks were sold off heavily, led by cruise liners. Carnival (CCL) slumped 11% after S&P slashed its credit rating down three notches to junk on concerns over an extended period of weak demand. Its peers Norwegian Cruise Line(NCLH) and Royal Caribbean Cruises(RCL) also shed over 11%.

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On 6/22/2020 at 6:50 AM, ipeeinthepool said:

Given the amount of debt the cruise lines are accumulating I think they will all go bankrupt.  Some will restructure and some will go away.  Someday they will need to pay off the massive debt they are accumulating and I'm not sure that any cruise line really has a plan.  After the first one goes bankrupt and restructures they will have a much lower operating cost because they won't have the debt that the other cruise lines are struggling to pay and they will be able to operate at lower fares.  The other lines will try to compete but they won't be able to operate profitably and then they will go bankrupt.  There will be some passengers that lose their deposits for future cruises but the big losers will be the countries that finance the ships, the shipyards and the banks.  This will likely take 3 - 4 years to finally settle down. 

I think you are spot on and most of the mainstream lines will come out in a better position, but i do think there will be casualties given the number of cruisers will be lower for the next couple of years. I dont think people, outside of this board, are going to jump back on the ships the way they did at the end of 2019.  Going to take some time for this pandemic to fade from peoples minds. 

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On 6/22/2020 at 8:32 AM, ipeeinthepool said:

However I'll suggest that there really isn't a huge difference between cruise lines. 


I don’t agree with this comment. I think there is a significant difference between cruise lines. For example, my wife and I frequently cruised on Carnival in the past but I doubt we will cruise on them again in the future. I don’t have anything bad to say about Carnival, but we like the experience on RCI and Celebrity much better.  All of our cancelled cruises and 5 booked cruises in the next year are on either RCI or Celebrity. I don’t see that changing in the future whenever cruising resumes.  

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17 minutes ago, PhillyFan33579 said:


I don’t agree with this comment. I think there is a significant difference between cruise lines. For example, my wife and I frequently cruised on Carnival in the past but I doubt we will cruise on them again in the future. I don’t have anything bad to say about Carnival, but we like the experience on RCI and Celebrity much better.  All of our cancelled cruises and 5 booked cruises in the next year are on either RCI or Celebrity. I don’t see that changing in the future whenever cruising resumes.  

 

I didn't intend to suggest that all cruise lines were equal but rather there are usually multiple choices for almost any cruise lines.  Many RCL cruisers could be happy on Carnival or NCL.  Many Celebrity cruisers could be happy on Princess or HAL.  Check out many people's cruising histories and you'll see many people switch between lines.  As long as there are nearly equal choices, lower prices will win.

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I didn't intend to suggest that all cruise lines were equal but rather there are usually multiple choices for almost any cruise lines.  Many RCL cruisers could be happy on Carnival or NCL.  Many Celebrity cruisers could be happy on Princess or HAL.  Check out many people's cruising histories and you'll see many people switch between lines.  As long as there are nearly equal choices, lower prices will win.
I consider myself a loyal Royal Caribbean customer but a few years ago found a great deal on a NCL breakaway cruise plus I like that they do 7 day Bermuda cruises instead of 5 Royal does from NJ. I thought I'd like it just as much and while we had a blast I did not like it as much as Royal Caribbean. There ship was designed funky with bottlenecks and poor passenger traffic. I just feel at home on Royal Caribbean ships for whatever reason. Oh the Cape Liberty cruise port is on another level better than Manhattan too.
I check the prices of NCL cruises periodically and they are super duper high. Only way I'd do them again it's if I get a crazy price.
I would try Carnival but they don't have any of the new big ships in the NY/NJ area.

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I don't fear them going OOB.  I think both Royal and Carnival have enough other interests they could shutter (many other smaller subsidiary lines that will go away before the main one is in jeopardy) that in the long run, they'll be ok.  I do worry about NCL, they weren't exactly a healthy company before this all hit, and they were one of the first to have financial issues reported after it all began.  I agree with @joelheather earlier saying they are probably going to go through a merger, either hostile or arranged, and I think MSC will be the ones to do it.  Their styles already align regarding the ship within a ship format (Haven in NCL, Yacht Club in MSC), and the new Project Leonardo that NCL is introducing is based on the Seaside class with MSC.  There's already a lot of overlap there, and with MSC being private and financially propped up by a shipping industry, it just seems like a natural fit.

 

The others?  Outside of Carnival doing something like sunsetting the Princess brand because of the association with the outbreaks and merging those ships within another line, or Royal shuttering Azamara and putting it under Celebrity, I just don't see much happening.  You'll probably just see a lot of older ships sold off for scrap to save money.

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