Maybe the CDC is right after all

[FiredogCruiser]

3 hours ago, jeremyosborne81 said:

The biggest obstacle is that the CDC, instead of classifying cruise ships in the same category as airplanes, hotels, and theme parks, which are still operating, classified cruise ships in the same category with prisons and retirement homes, which are thought to be much higher risks.

Same category as retirement homes? Doesn't that mean ordering people on to them, like New York and Pennsylvania did?

[SLCfirsttimer]

1 hour ago, BlerkOne said:

The problem isn't the CDC, WHO, or cruise lines. The problem is the fraction of the American population who refused to follow guidelines, and the growing percentage who are doing the same. Some parts of America may be controlling the virus, but when looking at the big picture, American continues to be a superspreader. Current testing and treatments are a joke with unknown reliability and quality of many. It will be years before a clear winner in the vaccine race will be known, and even then, it is doubtful that it will be 100% effective or will last a lifetime.

 

Most of the rest of the world is clearly ahead of the US in the battle to control the virus. I don't think it will be a stretch in the future for most of the rest of the world to enjoy free travel and America and a few others to be on a quarantine list.

Bingo!

[Raxter54]

1 hour ago, AmBear said:

Agree with much of what you said, driving around yesterday in the Tampa Bay area, everything seemed back to normal, everything open, no one distancing, and few wearing masks!

This is why or infections have skyrocketed higher then at any time!

Are they doing more testing, yea but not at the amount the infections are going up!

And besides, more testing could have shown less new infections!

But it didn't, it revealed a lot more new infections!

 

Wow, amazing. You do more testing, you find more cases. Question - is the death rate rising? If not, then it isn't nearly as deadly as is being hyped.....

[FiredogCruiser]

2 hours ago, jimbo5544 said:

While I understand your point, and understand that they are the experts, they are certainly learning with the rest of us.  My entire problem with the CDC (outside of them changing directives and flip flopping more than a couple times) is that their stance on the cruise lines is untenable.  They have not worked with the cruise lines and treated them harsher and at a arms length and totally different than any other industry.

 

In regard to the Carnival stance of adding the 15 days, I think it probably the wisest thing they have done on a long time.  This give them more flexibility and the ability to use the time to adjust to the next set of rule changes.  Clearly, countries and the CDC dramatically delayed repatriation (disgusting performance of ineptitude and lack of passion), so this delay probably influenced their decision as well.

 

Lastly, who know what the heck the CDC is saying.  Without going back to look, I recall 2 (as in one more than one) announcements to the industry since the 100 day stay.  Even the last one did not come from the CDC.  The color coded (really....?????) version for repatriation should have come out at least a months and probably 2 months ago.  Disappointing to say the least.  Their version of show us what you got, vs working together shows lack of respect, business partnership and disregard for the industry as an entity.  

Experts? I have come to believe that X is the unknown quantity and "spirt" is a drip under pressure.

[SLCfirsttimer]

55 minutes ago, Georgia_Peaches said:

Eh, I think that's a little harsh.  As you pointed out, Japan (and others) are accustomed to wearing masks and have been doing so for a long time.  This is a cultural norm due, in large part, to the vast numbers of people living in very close proximity.  The suggestion of mask wearing in the US is very new and has only been promoted since mid March....quite different than those who have grown used to it through decades of practice.  Americans have always stepped up to the plate to do what's right for the common good.  If mask wearing takes a little time to get used to, I think we deserve a little leeway and flexibility.  I would describe Americans in a lot of ways but "selfish" isn't one of them.  

People flat out refusing to wear them isn’t taking a little time to get used to it, it’s pure selfishness. People aren’t stepping up to the plate to do what’s right for the common good.

[OceanCruise]

20 minutes ago, LMaxwell said:

Yes, I bail out at that point.  I'm data and fact driven. Nothing I say will sway the minds of people who aren't discussing with the same baseline.  Your observations are pretty on point. Perspective matters.  But I firmly believe we won't get back to doing what we love doing unless everyone takes this seriously.  I'm in Florida.  People here believe it's "nothing" but ICU's are running out of capacity. One person said to me "And you believe that's all COVID?"  No.  No one said it was.  It's just a factual statement to say ICU's are at less than 20% capacity for whatever myriad ailments and so by people casually going about their lives, you run a risk of healthcare system strain in which they can not also manage heart attack, stroke, trauma/accidents, etc. It's disheartening how so few seem able or willing to think about their actions 2 or 3 steps past themselves, or unwilling to do the most basic steps to not be a part of the problem. 

 

Sure do miss cruising, not in a rush to get onboard.  Don't see how its feasible. 

 

 

edit:  guess we aren't running out if we just move the goal post.  phew.  that's comforting

Where are you getting your data that the current numbers are an anomoly?

From the linked article: "During the winter, most hospitals are running closer to 80 to 85% ICU occupancy." 

https://www.news4jax.com/news/local/2020/06/18/florida-has-less-than-25-of-its-icu-beds-available/

This article also contains  the link to the official Florida numbers and plenty of beds seem to be available in most hospitals.

[harkinmr]

1 hour ago, Georgia_Peaches said:

Eh, I think that's a little harsh.  As you pointed out, Japan (and others) are accustomed to wearing masks and have been doing so for a long time.  This is a cultural norm due, in large part, to the vast numbers of people living in very close proximity.  The suggestion of mask wearing in the US is very new and has only been promoted since mid March....quite different than those who have grown used to it through decades of practice.  Americans have always stepped up to the plate to do what's right for the common good.  If mask wearing takes a little time to get used to, I think we deserve a little leeway and flexibility.  I would describe Americans in a lot of ways but "selfish" isn't one of them.  

I would disagree that Americans have always stepped up to the plate to do the right thing.  The last time that really happened was WWII.  What are some other critical periods in recent US history where that has taken place?  Americans are a very independent lot (a good thing) but in the 'social media' environment of the last couple of decades in particular, Americans have become very self-involved and selfish (a very bad thing).  I don't see people in my area making a united effort to comply with recommended behaviors in order to slow the spread of the virus.  Just the opposite.  And I believe that it would be a challenge to get all cruisers to comply with precautionary measures on a cruise ship.  I think that the cruise lines are reluctant to start because of that.  Maybe when measures are in place and cruising starts, I will be proven wrong.  We'll just have to wait and see.  

Edited June 22, 2020 by harkinmr

[OceanCruise]

21 minutes ago, TooManyWakeUpsTilWeSail said:

I see your response comparable to when a local town lowers the speed limit due to increased traffic after several years at a higher limit.  
 

A big difference with this virus than many previous ones is being an asymptomatic carrier.  Another is younger & younger people we’re now identifying as carriers with increased testing.  The time adjustment/leeway (in all public places) may setback flattening the curve several months.

 

This study looked to see if there is asymptomatic spread. From the study:

"we conclude that the infectivity of some asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 carriers might be weak".

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32405162/?fbclid=IwAR2q2NxWgFpKPLjqd-vKY7meWJ-pgGHb-CITNM8WoZ8lg8Ftc7dE1hN5iGU

[Georgia_Peaches]

10 minutes ago, TooManyWakeUpsTilWeSail said:

I see your response comparable to when a local town lowers the speed limit due to increased traffic after several years at a higher limit.

Not sure what this means.

 

10 minutes ago, TooManyWakeUpsTilWeSail said:

A big difference with this virus than many previous ones is being an asymptomatic carrier.  Another is younger & younger people we’re now identifying as carriers with increased testing.  The time adjustment/leeway (in all public places) may setback flattening the curve several months.

Agree with this statement.  My point was to the person who said Americans are selfish.  I disagree with the "selfish" adjective.  Hard headed, maybe.  Naive, perhaps.  I think it's unrealistic to think that Americans are going to be able to master what the Japanese (and others) have accomplished over decades of time with regard to public mask-wearing in just 12 weeks.  You can't expect a cultural shift to occur that quickly...much less remain in place.  Just read CC.  There's enough anecdotal evidence right here to suggest how far we (Americans) really are from understanding the long-term impact of this pandemic.  We have people wondering if their October cruise has a chance now that September is out of the running.  It's sad, really but ohh so much easier to cling to what we have known than to release the past and embrace what is right now.  I struggle with it every darn day.  So much so, I booked a cruise for March 2021.  Will it sail?  I don't think so.  But it felt good to make the reservation and for a day or two, feel the familiar giddiness or having a cruise on the books.

[BlerkOne]

13 minutes ago, CogitoErgoZoom said:

Flying lately is amazing.  Planes are flying nowhere NEAR capacity.  Even though schedules have been cut drastically.  You can EASILY distance yourself from your fellow passengers even on a regional jet these days because there just isn't a great deal of flying going on with business travel having been replaced by things like Skype and Zoom.  

 

Some flights are full.

[Elaine5715]

58 minutes ago, LMaxwell said:

 

On an airplane you are next to 1 or 2 people for the duration of your flight. I don't know the average flight time, but if I had to venture a guess; I'd say it is 3 hours or less.  In addition, flights are necessary for business reasons in a way that cruises most definitely are not. Meaning that cruising is a discretionary recreational activity; not a viable method of transport for conducting business.  

The duration of a cruise can be several days to several weeks in which you are in contact with hundreds if not thousands of different people. How could any cruiseline manage that situation? It's practically impossible. 

I don't spend more than a few minutes within arms length of fellow cruisers.  I spend at least 3 hours on a plane within an arms length of strangers.  Are viruses less likely to spread knowing the purpose of my travel?  The latest data suggest the spread is due to inside room, extended contact with an infected person who is not containing their droplets

[Georgia_Peaches]

11 minutes ago, SLCfirsttimer said:

People flat out refusing to wear them isn’t taking a little time to get used to it, it’s pure selfishness. People aren’t stepping up to the plate to do what’s right for the common good.

In post #59, I explained a little bit further..all just my opinion, of course.

[BlerkOne]

9 minutes ago, OceanCruise said:

Where are you getting your data that the current numbers are an anomoly?

From the linked article: "During the winter, most hospitals are running closer to 80 to 85% ICU occupancy." 

https://www.news4jax.com/news/local/2020/06/18/florida-has-less-than-25-of-its-icu-beds-available/

This article also contains  the link to the official Florida numbers and plenty of beds seem to be available in most hospitals.

 

 

https://www.newsweek.com/multiple-florida-hospitals-run-out-icu-beds-coronavirus-cases-spike-1511934?ut

 

 

[Elaine5715]

10 minutes ago, OceanCruise said:

Where are you getting your data that the current numbers are an anomoly?

From the linked article: "During the winter, most hospitals are running closer to 80 to 85% ICU occupancy." 

https://www.news4jax.com/news/local/2020/06/18/florida-has-less-than-25-of-its-icu-beds-available/

This article also contains  the link to the official Florida numbers and plenty of beds seem to be available in most hospitals.

I have a friend in one of the largest hospital systems...their COVID occupancy rate is very low.  Then again. it is people with COVID, not just COVID.  

[BlerkOne]

1 minute ago, Elaine5715 said:

I have a friend in one of the largest hospital systems...their COVID occupancy rate is very low.  Then again. it is people with COVID, not just COVID.  

 

I know a janitor who has a cousin who once stayed in a Holiday Inn Express, and...

[pc_load_letter]

4 hours ago, MsTabbyKats said:

The CDC knows what it's doing. 

 

 

lol...

 

https://www.aier.org/article/the-monumental-failure-of-the-cdc/

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/steveforbes/2020/03/14/cdc-and-covid-19-scandal-and-incompetence/#46c05ab72e7a

 

https://www.cato.org/blog/cdc-failures-mission-sprawl-one-problem

 

I could go on and on and on with these

[BlerkOne]

[OceanCruise]

9 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

 

 

https://www.newsweek.com/multiple-florida-hospitals-run-out-icu-beds-coronavirus-cases-spike-1511934?ut

 

 

Your article contains the same link to the official statistics as mine . Did you actually look at those numbers?  

[jimbo5544]

2 hours ago, shof515 said:

not sure about Carnival. i did found this one article that says the CDC is not treating the cruise lines right. it is like the CDC is ignoring all of the plans set forth by the cruise lines and will not approve anything

 

https://cruiseradio.net/scathing-report-accuses-cdc-of-mistreating-cruise-industry/

Nice article

[OceanCruise]

Also, CDC statistics showing we are at the bottom of the Covid bell curve for mortality. 

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

 

Numbers have been decreasing since April despite what the media is telling you

[chipmaster]

15 minutes ago, OceanCruise said:

Also, CDC statistics showing we are at the bottom of the Covid bell curve for mortality. 

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

 

Numbers have been decreasing since April despite what the media is telling you

 

Deaths are going down because new cases were going down, and the highest risk older are all dying and culling the weak.  Now with cases rising among the young the death rate will be lower, but will most surely rise and we'll be culling the obese, weak, and other high risk groups.

 

 

[jimbo5544]

I really think we have zero idea of what is going on.  Testing results continue to fluctuate, deaths are down and hospitalizations are up the hot spot areas and no where near that in others.  Test positives ages are skewing dramatically younger, which tends to back up Blerk’s point on mask wearing.  I wish knew more on positive tests that are asymptomatic vs need for hospital.  We can guess that it is this or that or driven by this or that but it is just guessing.   CT was terrible 2+ weeks ago and now has the lowest infection rate.   Beginning to think more and more we have no idea. 

[TooManyWakeUpsTilWeSail]

5 minutes ago, jimbo5544 said:

Beginning to think more and more we have no idea. 

Jimbo, as soon as someone can explain the spike in Arizona to us.....say heat drives them indoors then look at Nevada which is not spiking.

 

[jimbo5544]

21 minutes ago, TooManyWakeUpsTilWeSail said:

Jimbo, as soon as someone can explain the spike in Arizona to us.....say heat drives them indoors then look at Nevada which is not spiking.

 

To my point of we do not know what is going on.  Without the details like are on the Florida site, it is really all guessing.  As example, the average age of a positive test person is now 41, with huge increases in the 15 to 24 age group.   All variables apply, It was supposedly hit only older with underlying conditions, now younger, crazy.   In reference to the heat, it was all assumptions, much like all the modeling stuff, up and down all over the place.   

[jimbo5544]

47 minutes ago, chipmaster said:

 

Deaths are going down because new cases were going down, and the highest risk older are all dying and culling the weak.  Now with cases rising among the young the death rate will be lower, but will most surely rise and we'll be culling the obese, weak, and other high risk groups.

 

 

How many people in the other grids vs in the US?