Place an imaginary bet here , When will Celebrity start up?

[Luckiestmanonearth]

2 hours ago, phoenix_dream said:

It's a shame that a thread initially posted for people to hazard a guess when cruising will start up again has turned into such a political mess, primarily aimed at trashing the US and it's response (rightly or wrongly - this is not a statement pro or con as regards to that).  

 

I wish the hosts would just remove this thread entirely.  

It’s not off topic.  The thread is about when cruising will restart and one of the opinions was never for the reasons explained in each of the recent posts.

 

Just because they don’t concur with your own beliefs doesn’t mean these are insignificant opinions that needs to be shared .

 

I hope this explains what it means to have a constructive discussion .

 

Have a great day !!

[cruise47]

The first Friday in January 2021 from Miami. Write it down.

[hvbaskey]

5 hours ago, phoenix_dream said:

It's a shame that a thread initially posted for people to hazard a guess when cruising will start up again has turned into such a political mess, primarily aimed at trashing the US and it's response (rightly or wrongly - this is not a statement pro or con as regards to that).  

 

I wish the hosts would just remove this thread entirely.  These boards are supposed to be about people talking about cruising; not giving their armchair quarterback opinions about political matters.   Yes, there is a relationship to how countries are doing and when we can cruise again.  But these boards are not the place to trash country's responses.  There is so much hate and animosity on this thread it is very disturbing.    Those of us in countries such as the US who are currently really struggling with the virus (for whatever reason) do really not need to be kicked while we're down by our fellow cruisers.  We are suffering enough thank you.  We are not the politicians; we are not the ones making these decisions.  A little kindness would go a long way.  Consider it.

 

It’s a shame that you have read into these responses that people are trashing the US.  Most of us here absolutely love our neighbours and wish them healing and a recovery from the situation that they are in.

However, due to the nature of this thread, “When will cruising start up again?”, the dire situation in the States is a pivotal point.

Will the Caribbean season be sunk?  will ports in the US open for embarkation?  what Caribbean countries will accept ships originating from the US?   these are very relevant questions and concerns from cruisers.

Will the Asia season kick off?   will the Asia season be limited to countries who have COVID19 under control (similar to the EU travel restrictions).  Will ships reposition over to Asia for the soon to be upcoming season?

Will the South Pacific / Australia / New Zealand season go forward and will those destinations be reserved strictly for those residents (due to their own bubble which is in play)?  How will the repositioning occur?  will ships go to Australia / NZ that are currently floating around in the Northern Hemisphere?

Will there be a Europe season in Spring 2021?

ALL of these questions hinge on how well (or not well) countries are dealing with COVID19.   It’s not “political trashing”, it’s reality.

 

Cheers and I hope you have a better day and realize no one is “against” the US ... as you have stated. 

Edited July 5, 2020 by hvbaskey

[jonthomas]

2 hours ago, cruise47 said:

The first Friday in January 2021 from Miami. Write it down.

 

Got it!!!

[Luckiestmanonearth]

52 minutes ago, hvbaskey said:

 

It’s a shame that you have read into these responses that people are trashing the US.  Most of us here absolutely love our neighbours and wish them healing and a recovery from the situation that they are in.

However, due to the nature of this thread, “When will cruising start up again?”, the dire situation in the States is a pivotal point.

Will the Caribbean season be sunk?  will ports in the US open for embarkation?  what Caribbean countries will accept ships originating from the US?   these are very relevant questions and concerns from cruisers.

Will the Asia season kick off?   will the Asia season be limited to countries who have COVID19 under control (similar to the EU travel restrictions).  Will ships reposition over to Asia for the soon to be upcoming season?

Will the South Pacific / Australia / New Zealand season go forward and will those destinations be reserved strictly for those residents (due to their own bubble which is in play)?  How will the repositioning occur?  will ships go to Australia / NZ that are currently floating around in the Northern Hemisphere?

Will there be a Europe season in Spring 2021?

ALL of these questions hinge on how well (or not well) countries are dealing with COVID19.   It’s not “political trashing”, it’s reality.

 

Cheers and I hope you have a better day and realize no one is “against” the US ... as you have stated. 

well stated

[hcat]

How countries ( and cruises to or from their ports) fare,  depends on individual behavior...Govs and other entities can only do so much  to solve this , unless they have full control like Korea.....perish the thought!

 

Being cooped up for months with or without any income or meaningful socialization takes a big toll on some more than others.  Some simply are in denial or do not believe in  the seriousness of it all,.,  Many seem too quick to judge others...but may not know their situation.   Others are plain out selfish...no excuses!

 

When the number of cases recede things will open up...but it may not be as soon ss some would prefer.  Eventually it will work itself out...

[osborne66]

I am saying no cruising in 2020 

[d9704011]

8 hours ago, osborne66 said:

I am saying no cruising in 2020 

You need to go further out on the limb..... take the lead from post #302.  You don’t even have to provide an explanation.

[hvbaskey]

39 minutes ago, d9704011 said:

You need to go further out on the limb..... take the lead from post #302.  You don’t even have to provide an explanation.

 

November 10, 2020 (Asia)

[zitsky]

Can I revise my estimate?  I now say Dec 13, 2020.

 

 

 

(My cruise is on Dec 14.)  😂

[TeeRick]

On 7/4/2020 at 11:53 AM, ECCruise said:

With each release of case counts daily, the restart date gets pushed further and further out.

11,458 in Florida today, new record and up considerably (again).

Hospitalizations still on the rise. 

I posted this thought elsewhere but more appropriate on this thread I think.  Sorry for repeating.

 

So if we can look back, countries with outbreaks, followed by early US states with outbreaks, with strict measures put in place and high compliance, took about 3-4 months for the infection case numbers to be lowered enough to be considered controlled.  Look at most of the northeast US including NY (March-June).   So if Florida would start today with similar measures, then perhaps end of October is where the control point would be for initiating safe(r) cruising from this state.  Unfortunately Florida shows no sign of doing this.  This is a relatively new development for the cruise industry and they are likely now worried mightily about resuming cruises from Florida any time in 2020 and early 2021.

[bouhunter]

2 hours ago, d9704011 said:

You don’t even have to provide an explanation.

In that case, January 2021.  But limited ships and itin's.  Full schedule won't be sailing that soon.  Cancellation/refund chaos will continue for some time.  😞

 

[hvbaskey]

22 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

I posted this thought elsewhere but more appropriate on this thread I think.  Sorry for repeating.

 

So if we can look back, countries with outbreaks, followed by early US states with outbreaks, with strict measures put in place and high compliance, took about 3-4 months for the infection case numbers to be lowered enough to be considered controlled.  Look at most of the northeast US including NY (March-June).   So if Florida would start today with similar measures, then perhaps end of October is where the control point would be for initiating safe(r) cruising from this state.  Unfortunately Florida shows no sign of doing this.  This is a relatively new development for the cruise industry and they are likely now worried mightily about resuming cruises from Florida any time in 2020 and early 2021.

 

Yes - this has been my train of thought for a while - prompting my decision to move my Tampa embarkation ABC Cruise (Jan 2021) to an Asia embarkation in April 2021.   Unfortunately, my prediction (but no crystal ball here!) is that anything to do with Florida will be out for a while.

Cruises (with limited capacities and nationalities) have begun in Asia and my best guess (reiterating “guess”) is that other cruise lines may start in Asia / South Pacific / Australia / New Zealand with similar limitation and restrictions (Ports of Call and Nationalities) in play.   

Hence, I put my guess of start up (for the OP question poll) as November 10, 2020 in Asia.

Edited July 6, 2020 by hvbaskey

[phoenix_dream]

18 hours ago, hvbaskey said:

 

It’s a shame that you have read into these responses that people are trashing the US.  Most of us here absolutely love our neighbours and wish them healing and a recovery from the situation that they are in.

However, due to the nature of this thread, “When will cruising start up again?”, the dire situation in the States is a pivotal point.

Will the Caribbean season be sunk?  will ports in the US open for embarkation?  what Caribbean countries will accept ships originating from the US?   these are very relevant questions and concerns from cruisers.

Will the Asia season kick off?   will the Asia season be limited to countries who have COVID19 under control (similar to the EU travel restrictions).  Will ships reposition over to Asia for the soon to be upcoming season?

Will the South Pacific / Australia / New Zealand season go forward and will those destinations be reserved strictly for those residents (due to their own bubble which is in play)?  How will the repositioning occur?  will ships go to Australia / NZ that are currently floating around in the Northern Hemisphere?

Will there be a Europe season in Spring 2021?

ALL of these questions hinge on how well (or not well) countries are dealing with COVID19.   It’s not “political trashing”, it’s reality.

 

Cheers and I hope you have a better day and realize no one is “against” the US ... as you have stated. 

I appreciate the good wishes.  But no way did I "read into these responses" .  Many (of course not all) specifically state that the US has handled this horribly,  in various words.  We already know the dire situation we are in.  It is one thing to comment about where the numbers stand right now, and I know as well as anyone they are not good here in the US.  That certainly tracks with the purpose of this thread which is to guess when cruising may start again.   It is another thing to have to make editorial comments that they are bad because of this reason or that reason, right or wrong, inferring or downright saying that it's because we did something wrong.  That part of the discussion is hurtful and unnecessary IMHO.  The point of this thread is to talk about cruising and the numbers of cases in the US of course factors into that equation.  Judgmental  evaluations of why we got to this point are off topic and offensive.

Edited July 6, 2020 by phoenix_dream

[TeeRick]

Pertinent to this discussion in the US, there is a new online tool called Key Metrics For COVID Suppression by a consortium led by the Harvard Global Health Initiative, Rockefeller Foundation and others.  State level and county level risk assessments.  Pretty Interesting.  It clearly shows AZ, FL, SC, LA worst with a lot of the north and northeast in pretty good shape.  So, much of the US (area wise) has handled the pandemic in an OK way.  But certain states are driving the current numbers.  You can also see country risk assessments worldwide too.

 

https://globalepidemics.org/key-metrics-for-covid-suppression/

Edited July 6, 2020 by TeeRick

[Fouremco]

6 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

Pertinent to this discussion in the US, there is a new online tool called Key Metrics For COVID Suppression by a consortium led by the Harvard Global Health Initiative, Rockefeller Foundation and others.  State level and county level risk assessments.  Pretty Interesting.  It clearly shows AZ, FL, SC, LA worst with a lot of the north and northeast in pretty good shape.  So, much of the US (area wise) has handled the pandemic in an OK way.  But certain states are driving the current numbers.

 

https://globalepidemics.org/key-metrics-for-covid-suppression/

Thanks Rick. In addition to the US metrics, the Worldwide reporting is very informative. There's a good deal more green on the world map than I would have thought.

[Babr]

25 minutes ago, phoenix_dream said:

I appreciate the good wishes.  But no way did I "read into these responses" .  Many (of course not all) specifically state that the US has handled this horribly,  in various words.  We already know the dire situation we are in.  It is one thing to comment about where the numbers stand right now, and I know as well as anyone they are not good here in the US.  That certainly tracks with the purpose of this thread which is to guess when cruising may start again.   It is another thing to have to make editorial comments that they are bad because of this reason or that reason, right or wrong, inferring or downright saying that it's because we did something wrong.  That part of the discussion is hurtful and unnecessary IMHO.  The point of this thread is to talk about cruising and the numbers of cases in the US of course factors into that equation.  Judgmental  evaluations of why we got to this point are off topic and offensive.

Please don’t be offended by comments critical of the US. I don’t think any are aimed at you personally.

 

As a country, I do think we have to admit that some things have gone horribly wrong, both with leadership and with citizens’ responses. Perhaps we can begin to turn things around if we can recognize the problems.

[UnorigionalName]

14 hours ago, hcat said:

How countries ( and cruises to or from their ports) fare,  depends on individual behavior...Govs and other entities can only do so much  to solve this , unless they have full control like Korea.....perish the thought!

 

Being cooped up for months with or without any income or meaningful socialization takes a big toll on some more than others.  Some simply are in denial or do not believe in  the seriousness of it all,.,  Many seem too quick to judge others...but may not know their situation.   Others are plain out selfish...no excuses!

 

When the number of cases recede things will open up...but it may not be as soon ss some would prefer.  Eventually it will work itself out...

 

Do you have your Korea's mixed up?  South Korea, which pretty successfully dealt with the virus is an open democracy, not like North Korea, where no one knows what's happening with regards to COVID.  Their economy has mostly been open, with only select closing.  https://theprint.in/world/south-korea-crushed-huge-virus-outbreak-without-lockdown-but-a-second-wave-could-be-trickier/440796/

 

PS. if you look at international news or ask people internationally, because of COVID US is like, now laughingstock of the world.

Edited July 6, 2020 by UnorigionalName

[hvbaskey]

41 minutes ago, phoenix_dream said:

It is another thing to have to make editorial comments that they are bad because of this reason or that reason, right or wrong, inferring or downright saying that it's because we did something wrong.  That part of the discussion is hurtful and unnecessary IMHO.  The point of this thread is to talk about cruising and the numbers of cases in the US of course factors into that equation.  Judgmental  evaluations of why we got to this point are off topic and offensive.

 

I agree to a certain degree, but also see it from two perspectives:    

 

1.   For some, it could be offensive to read how horrible the pandemic was handled in the US.

2.   For others, it could be offensive to read how amazing it was handled in the US (eg., its over and life can resume).
 

It only needs one match to light the fire to get both sides going.

 

If readers can refrain from either argument (each equally stokes the fire) and with the understanding that travel restrictions / barriers to certain regions are not personal attacks; but a reality to when and if cruising resumes with/without certain nationalities; I think this is a great message thread.

 

I personally won’t take offence that if the South Pacific / Australia / New Zealand begins and those cruise itineraries are restricted to those nationalities only.   I rather, would expect that to happen.   I was hoping to do the Great Barrier Reef cruise within the next year, but looks like that wish list trip will be on hold for a while.   If that happens, those ships will sell out and cruise with those in the restrictive bubble noted above and I wish those cruisers well and hope they can share loads of photos with those of us left behind.  
 

[jonthomas]

I was going to do a tally, but with changes and additions it is too hard to do. So when celebrity actually sails their first cruise, wherever that might be, the person that has  chosen the closest date, without going over is the winner.  They will need to speak up. The rest of us, will check and congratulate them. The prize you ask? A free cruise of course, but not sure who will give it to them  or to where. 😀

[C-Dragons]

October 22, 2020, Apex Inaugural TA, Barcelona to Florida.

[Mike981]

On 7/5/2020 at 5:08 AM, Luckiestmanonearth said:

I ashamed that is people’s reaction .  I’m not shocked that the country is going through a bad second wave with that kind of attitude 

 

Unfortunately, we are not in a second wave. We are still in the first wave.
You need to have a dramatic drop of cases to have a second wave. In the USA, we are seeing an ever increasing number of cases and have never had decrease.

[jonthomas]

44 minutes ago, Mike981 said:

 

Unfortunately, we are not in a second wave. We are still in the first wave.
You need to have a dramatic drop of cases to have a second wave. In the USA, we are seeing an ever increasing number of cases and have never had decrease.

 

And also unfortunately you are correct. 

[yorky]

We have just started a lift and shift for our Asia cruise moving from 14 Feb 2021 to 13th Feb 2022. Just too much risk of a second wave, uncertainty of a vaccine in time, unsure about travel insurance covering for Covid and possible changes onboard still being active. Gutted in truth to have to add another 12 months to the date but as a reward instead of two nights at Raffles hotel in Singapore after the cruise we are going to stay for four nights

[jonthomas]

Just cant imagine any cruise line still being viable if they dont sail in 2021.