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Place an imaginary bet here , When will Celebrity start up?


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1 hour ago, jelayne said:

 

Well the Millennium is still sitting off the coast of San Diego, CA along with the Eclipse.  Both the TPs were cancelled.

We were booked on the Eclipse 10/11 - Japan, Taiwan &  Vietnam and 10/27 Vietnam & Thailand cruises and cancelled to day.

I wasn't about to make final payment for cruises that have a very good chance  of being cancelled.  We are still waiting for the refund of port fees & taxes from a cruise we cancelled on March 20th.

I have a nonrefundable deposit on that Nov 8 Tokyo to Hong Kong cruise.  But, like you, Jelayne, I won't be making final payment when it is due in August.  They probably won't cancel the cruise until after the deposit is due.  Too bad for me!  I was lucky that I did receive my refund for my canceled Canada cruise.

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21 hours ago, Tapi said:

Well, while the more optimistic players in the cruise industry were talking about a return to cruising at the end of July, it seemed to me like it was simply tied to the end of the 100 no sail order from the CDC, but efforts were falling short in order to truly meet that deadline. Other cruise lines were more realistically aligning themselves for an October restart, even before the most recent extension.
 

Cruise lines like Crystal had announced repositioning ships to the Caribbean for the fall season. Most recently, MSC also announced redeploying ships to different markets for the fall season as well. Smaller players like Bahamas Paradise still shows one ship beginning at the end of July (which is the only ship to attain a “green” status by the CDC and for which they have already listed a full list of protocols on their website), but their other ship has always had an October start date.
 

With all of these “hints” that we’ve had for months, I’ve always thought that the end of July was not realistic for most cruise lines, but October would be. I’ve never tied a return to cruising with a vaccine because I don’t believe that it would be “the” solution. A comprehensive plan of action for the cruise lines, like what several airlines have implemented and which have allowed them to continue operating, will be a more realistic path towards a restart. 
 

With the announced ship redeployments for the fall in place, I believe that within the next few weeks we will start seeing protocols established by various cruise lines unveiled in order to begin cruising in the fall. 
 

With all of that said, I’m not willing to bet any money on a October restart. If there’s one thing that I’ve learned with this pandemic is that nobody knows for sure how everything will play out in the cruise industry. Personally, I’ve decided to forego any cruises for the rest of 2020 and I don’t have anything planned until February 2021 to be on the safe side and avoid all the aggravation that so many have experienced with their canceled vacations. 
 

Time will tell! 
 

 

Thanks for your explanation.  I think an October restart might be more difficult due to getting the crew back together and trained on new procedures for one thing anyway.

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20 hours ago, ECCruise said:

I will make a prediction when infections in the US begin to fall, because once that begins to happen, there will likely be a 60-90 lag before startup.  And since it is a lagging indicator, hospitalizations will need to continue to fall. 

As long as things continue to spike in FL, AZ, CA, TX and several other states, I would be surprised if there is an exact date before then.

Virgin has announced a soft start up of October 16th, but they have the advantage of only 1 ship and lots of new technology already incorporated in the ship.

But there will continue to be spikes like the ones you mentioned across the world and in the US.  That has been a predicted outcome by many experts and it has held true so far.  If the spikes are shown to be manageable by the healthcare systems then things could become less restrictive for cruising.  But these spikes will continue here and there and everywhere.  Even after a vaccine becomes initially available.  So as a society we have to decide if we can tolerate them and move forward.  IMO, one important key to the restart of cruising- What is the agreed procedure for a spike on a ship - ie, a sick ship?   CDC, other governments involved, and port authorities must come to a solid agreement on this before the first passenger boards.

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14 hours ago, DrKoob said:

 

No, it will be the day that the vaccine is available enough to be widely distributed. The vaccine will do no good until people are able to be inoculated. 

But many will choose not to be vaccinated.  Restrict them from cruising?  Airline travel?  Public transportation?

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2 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

But many will choose not to be vaccinated.  Restrict them from cruising?  Airline travel?  Public transportation?


Restrict them to their homes

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Just now, TeeRick said:

But many will choose not to be vaccinated.  Restrict them from cruising?  Airline travel?  Public transportation?

I'm no medical expert, but my understanding is that the vaccine (when it's available. Note I said when not if!) will have a positive impact on those who are not immunised through things like herd immunity. 

 

Phil 

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15 minutes ago, Turtles06 said:


Restrict them to their homes

Amen to that sir! Never let them on a ship or plane for sure. They are a danger to all. May as well give a psycho a gun and let him lose. Show vaccination certificate or stay home!

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20 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

Thanks for your explanation.  I think an October restart might be more difficult due to getting the crew back together and trained on new procedures for one thing anyway.

You do have a great point about getting the crews back into position. I read that MSC has already determined the logistics of getting crews retrained with the new protocols, but I haven’t read anything specific to Celebrity. 

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On 6/23/2020 at 9:21 AM, Tapi said:

Call me ridiculously optimistic, but I think that the October date will actually hold. 

I think you're close.

 

I say mid-November.  Mainly because I have hope that Astrazeneca will be successful in their vaccine and it'll be distributed by October.  I also suspect cruise lines will make it a requirement that all passengers be vaccinated if they wish to sail, with proof of it.

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I really don't want to get too far ahead of ourselves here.

Astrazeneca as of yesterday has additional tests in pigs.  Which required 2 doses, initial and booster for maximum effectiveness.

Which would mean the computations that are being bandied about here would have to be doubled, time wise should 2 doses be necessary.

I am as optimistic as the next person, but honestly I don't see a vaccine being widely available in October, just in time to go on an early November cruise.

 

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10 minutes ago, ECCruise said:

I really don't want to get too far ahead of ourselves here.

Astrazeneca as of yesterday has additional tests in pigs.  Which required 2 doses, initial and booster for maximum effectiveness.

Which would mean the computations that are being bandied about here would have to be doubled, time wise should 2 doses be necessary.

I am as optimistic as the next person, but honestly I don't see a vaccine being widely available in October, just in time to go on an early November cruise.

 

 

Early on they said that one dose would probably only be good for a year and a booster would most likely be needed.  So not surprising news.  However, based on where they're at with the trials, October "due date" is viable.

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After a vaccine is given it takes about 2 weeks or more for the body to develop its immunity. Then in order to have everyone cruise again it has to be administered to everyone and none of us know how long that will take and what the process will be.  Sailing in early November if a vaccine is available in October is wishful thinking IMHO

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24 minutes ago, K.T.B. said:

 

Early on they said that one dose would probably only be good for a year and a booster would most likely be needed.  So not surprising news.  However, based on where they're at with the trials, October "due date" is viable.

I guess it doesn't hurt to be optimistic.

We are with a real healthy dose of realism (and the realization that cruising is just not that important to us to push the envelope).

We cancelled sailings in September, October, November and December.  January 31st is now on the bubble. 

Won't even think of exposing ourselves to things until there is verification of tons of factors:  Vaccination or no?  2nd wave or no?  Cruise procedures going forward (and that is a big one....no way paying even what we are paying now for a severely contracted experience let alone more dough).   

Can guarantee that if masks are required and I see the total lack of compliance that I see with travelers in our city today, there is no way we go. Not gonna encounter the no mask under any circumstances crowd.

Edited by ECCruise
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6 hours ago, TeeRick said:

But many will choose not to be vaccinated. 

Just so happened I was at a family event last week and two people ages 71 and 73 said they will not take the vaccine when available. I thought to myself, 'good ..... more for the rest of us.'

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30 minutes ago, drakes2 said:

Just so happened I was at a family event last week and two people ages 71 and 73 said they will not take the vaccine when available. I thought to myself, 'good ..... more for the rest of us.'

 

Honestly, for the safety of all, everyone should be vaccinated.  Just like for polio and measles and chicken pox.  BUT I know there are idiots out there who don't believe in getting vaccinated.

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8 minutes ago, K.T.B. said:

BUT I know there are idiots out there who don't believe in getting vaccinated.

So if I am vaccinated and these people choose not to would I be at greater risk. I have to see them at family functions.  

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6 hours ago, DrKoob said:

Amen to that sir! Never let them on a ship or plane for sure. They are a danger to all. May as well give a psycho a gun and let him lose. Show vaccination certificate or stay home!

Show your papers....D, JD..people who get the Flu vaccine every year, still get the Flu..

Edited by PTC DAWG
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43 minutes ago, drakes2 said:

I thought to myself, 'good ..... more for the rest of us.'

I thought to myself, 'Darwin was right.'

 

3 minutes ago, drakes2 said:

So if I am vaccinated and these people choose not to would I be at greater risk. I have to see them at family functions.  

If the vaccination is viable, you should be protected. Nevertheless, I would maintain physical distancing and I'd have no hesitation in explaining why.

Edited by Fouremco
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On 6/23/2020 at 11:57 AM, RedneckBob said:

My Farmers Almanac says on page 121, boats will start sailing on October 21, 2021.

Well I am on Northern Lights 10/20. So maybe we leave a day late?

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1 hour ago, PTC DAWG said:

Show your papers....D, JD..people who get the Flu vaccine every year, still get the Flu..

People who get the polio, measles, mumps, etc. vaccines don't get those diseases (with very, very few exceptions).  It all depends on the vaccine.  And even if the vaccine doesn't prevent 100%, if it can significantly lower the risk of serious or fatal illness from the virus it will still be worth it.

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9 hours ago, TeeRick said:

 IMO, one important key to the restart of cruising- What is the agreed procedure for a spike on a ship - ie, a sick ship?   CDC, other governments involved, and port authorities must come to a solid agreement on this before the first passenger boards.

Exactly.  Everyone here keeps debating masks and social distancing, etc.  And it will indeed be interesting how all that plays out.  But how they will handle a cruise with one or more positive covid tests is a BIG question to be answered.

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2 hours ago, oskidunker said:

Well I am on Northern Lights 10/20. So maybe we leave a day late?


Let me apologize. Just looked up on page 121 in the Farmers Almanac and there is this footnote; all cruises start on 10/21/20 except Northern Lights which will depart on 10/20/20. Further the Big Dipper/ Little Dipper Cruise will depart 10/22/20

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